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The Arctic region is subject to polar amplification, causing it to warm approximately four times faster than the global average. The predominance of ice and mixed-phase clouds in high latitude regions causes strong uncertainties in the determination of the cloud radiative effect and the cloud feedback. The representation of these clouds in models is therefore a crucial point for climate prediction. Solid and liquid water phases partitioning in mixed-phase clouds is mostly driven by their formation and growth processes, in which aerosol particles play a major role, especially in the Arctic where those particles are scarce. Although ice nucleating particles (INPs) may have relevant impact on weather and climate, their physical and chemical properties stay poorly understood. One of the main reasons is the lack of knowledge about their nature; the latter being mainly determined by their sources and thereby their geographical origins. In this study, in situ measurements from several recent data-sets are used to determine the likely origins of warm Arctic INPs (activated between -10°C and -20°C). A statistical method is applied on the backtrajectories derived from the lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF, allows to characterize the seasonal variability of the identified INPs’ sources encountered over the arctic basin. The seasonal analysis shows that contributions of continental and marine sources to INPs concentrations are highly time- and space-dependent. Arctic INPs do not come exclusively from local sources and can originate from long-range transport. However, the general strong contribution of sea ice and open ocean regions to high concentrations of INPs, and its seasonal variability, is a clue about the importance of local sources. It emphasizes the hypothesis that marine biologic sources are among the main contributors to INPs emissions in the Arctic, when air masses coming from continental regions are often weak contributors. Also, the discrete strong contribution of sea ice regions, particularly in Autumn, suggests that mechanisms like blowing snow or emission of sea sprays from leads and marginal sea ice could have a relevant impact on Arctic INPs production. These results show the potential of this approach to characterize the origins of in situ measured species, and call for the method to be used in future studies on aerosols emissions.

We present an inter-comparison of simulated sea-salt aerosols (SSA) in CMIP6 models, including an evaluation against station observations in the Artic and Antarctic regions and satellite data. Drivers of model diversity are investigated. Historical and future trends are also explored and connected to their driving mechanisms. Additionally, the sensitivity of the polar radiative budget to SSA in CMIP6 models is quantified and put in relation to present-day uncertainties and future trends. Comparisons suggest (i) a large inter-model spread in SSA surface concentrations mostly driven by the diversity in source functions, (ii) an important overestimation of SSA surface concentrations compared to measurement stations but reasonable agreement with optical depth from satellite data, (iii) difficulties in properly capturing the annual cycle of SSA at both poles, particularly at higher latitude. A generally increasing trend in SSA concentrations is found in CMIP6 over the last decades and in future scenarios. CMIP6 models show that SSA contribute to cooling the poles significantly, implying possible uncertainties of several W/m2 in the present-day polar radiative budget.

In 2014/2015, the intense eruption of the Holuhraun/Bárðarbunga volcano in Iceland emitted extreme amounts of SO2, far above the anthropogenic or natural background. This event had major impacts on cloud properties observed by satellite in the Northern Atlantic. Malavelle et al. (2017) showed that many climate models struggled to reproduce these observed impacts on clouds, indicating potential serious issues in the cloud-aerosol interaction frameworks currently used in models. These issues could explain part of the very large uncertainty remaining in current estimates of the radiative effect of aerosol-cloud interactions.Here, we use MODIS observations of cloud properties during the eruption to evaluate 3 different cloud-aerosol interaction approaches of decreasing complexity in the WRF-Chem 4 regional atmospheric model: First, the default model setup, using the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (2000) parameterization (AR2000), coupling MOSAIC-4bin aerosols to the Morrison-2-moment microphysics. Second, the Thompson & Eidhammer (2014) aerosol-aware microphysics (TE2014), coupled for this study to MOSAIC-4bin aerosols. Third, the default version of TE2014 in WRF 4 using forced offline aerosols, where we replaced the original static aerosol climatology with 3D time-varying aerosols during the eruption. This last simplified approach does not require simulating fully interactive aerosols, and could be used to investigate regional cloud-aerosol processes and radiative forcing at high resolutions and climate time scales at a lower computational cost.In addition, we compare how these 3 cloud-aerosol approaches impact the detailed cloud response during the eruption in terms of cloud microphysical and optical properties, radiative fluxes, and precipitation.

Anthropogenic and natural emissions contribute to enhanced concentrations of aerosols in the Arctic winter and early spring, with most attention being paid to anthropogenic aerosols that contribute to so-called Arctic haze. Less-well-studied wintertime sea-spray aerosols (SSAs) under Arctic haze conditions are the focus of this study, since they can make an important contribution to wintertime Arctic aerosol abundances. Analysis of field campaign data shows evidence for enhanced local sources of SSAs, including marine organics at Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow) in northern Alaska, United States, during winter 2014. Models tend to underestimate sub-micron SSAs and overestimate super-micron SSAs in the Arctic during winter, including the base version of the Weather Research Forecast coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model used here, which includes a widely used SSA source function based on Gong et al. (1997). Quasi-hemispheric simulations for winter 2014 including updated wind speed and sea-surface temperature (SST) SSA emission dependencies and sources of marine sea-salt organics and sea-salt sulfate lead to significantly improved model performance compared to observations at remote Arctic sites, notably for coarse-mode sodium and chloride, which are reduced. The improved model also simulates more realistic contributions of SSAs to inorganic aerosols at different sites, ranging from 20 %–93 % in the observations. Two-thirds of the improved model performance is from the inclusion of the dependence on SSTs. The simulation of nitrate aerosols is also improved due to less heterogeneous uptake of nitric acid on SSAs in the coarse mode and related increases in fine-mode nitrate. This highlights the importance of interactions between natural SSAs and inorganic anthropogenic aerosols that contribute to Arctic haze. Simulation of organic aerosols and the fraction of sea-salt sulfate are also improved compared to observations. However, the model underestimates episodes with elevated observed concentrations of SSA components and sub-micron non-sea-salt sulfate at some Arctic sites, notably at Utqiaġvik. Possible reasons are explored in higher-resolution runs over northern Alaska for periods corresponding to the Utqiaġvik field campaign in January and February 2014. The addition of a local source of sea-salt marine organics, based on the campaign data, increases modelled organic aerosols over northern Alaska. However, comparison with previous available data suggests that local natural sources from open leads, as well as local anthropogenic sources, are underestimated in the model. Missing local anthropogenic sources may also explain the low modelled (sub-micron) non-sea-salt sulfate at Utqiaġvik. The introduction of a higher wind speed dependence for sub-micron SSA emissions, also based on Arctic data, reduces biases in modelled sub-micron SSAs, while sea-ice fractions, including open leads, are shown to be an important factor controlling modelled super-micron, rather than sub-micron, SSAs over the north coast of Alaska. The regional results presented here show that modelled SSAs are more sensitive to wind speed dependence but that realistic modelling of sea-ice distributions is needed for the simulation of local SSAs, including marine organics. This study supports findings from the Utqiaġvik field campaign that open leads are the primary source of fresh and aged SSAs, including marine organic aerosols, during wintertime at Utqiaġvik; these findings do not suggest an influence from blowing snow and frost flowers. To improve model simulations of Arctic wintertime aerosols, new field data on processes that influence wintertime SSA production, in particular for fine-mode aerosols, are needed as is improved understanding about possible local anthropogenic sources.

Near-surface mercury and ozone depletion events occur in the lowest part of the atmosphere during Arctic spring. Mercury depletion is the first step in a process that transforms long-lived elemental mercury to more reactive forms within the Arctic that are deposited to the cryosphere, ocean, and other surfaces, which can ultimately get integrated into the Arctic food web. Depletion of both mercury and ozone occur due to the presence of reactive halogen radicals that are released from snow, ice, and aerosols. In this work, we added a detailed description of the Arctic atmospheric mercury cycle to our recently published version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem 4.3.3) that includes Arctic bromine and chlorine chemistry and activation/recycling on snow and aerosols. The major advantage of our modelling approach is the online calculation of bromine concentrations and emission/recycling that is required to simulate the hourly and daily variability of Arctic mercury depletion. We used this model to study coupling between reactive cycling of mercury, ozone, and bromine during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) spring season in 2020 and evaluated results compared to land-based, ship-based, and remote sensing observations. The model predicts that elemental mercury oxidation is driven largely by bromine chemistry and that particulate mercury is the major form of oxidized mercury. The model predicts that the majority (74%) of oxidized mercury deposited to land-based snow is re-emitted to the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury, while a minor fraction (4%) of oxidized mercury that is deposited to sea ice is re-emitted during spring. Our work demonstrates that hourly differences in bromine/ozone chemistry in the atmosphere must be considered to capture the springtime Arctic mercury cycle, including its integration into the cryosphere and ocean.

As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), tropospheric ozone (O3) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O3 depletion in the springtime; however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been previously reported, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models or improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O3 by 5 % to 15 % depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O3 within a range of ±50 % depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within ±8 % for most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O3 near the tropopause (∼300 hPa or ∼8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20 % at Eureka. Observed and simulated O3 precursors (CO, NOx, and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NOx but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O3 matches the observed O3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade, model results are as highly variable as ever and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric O3.

Reactive halogens play a prominent role in the atmospheric chemistry of the Arctic during springtime. Field measurements and modeling studies suggest that halogens are emitted into the atmosphere from snowpack and reactions on wind-blown snow-sourced aerosols. The relative importance of snowpack and blowing snow sources is still debated, both at local scales and regionally throughout the Arctic. To understand the implications of these halogen sources on a pan-Arctic scale, we simulate Arctic reactive bromine chemistry in the atmospheric chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Two mechanisms are included: (1) a blowing snow sea salt aerosol formation mechanism and (2) a snowpack mechanism assuming uniform molecular bromine production from all snow surfaces. We compare simulations including neither mechanism, each mechanism individually, and both mechanisms to examine conditions where one process may dominate or the mechanisms may interact. We compare the models using these mechanisms to observations of bromine monoxide (BrO) derived from multiple-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments on O-Buoy platforms on the sea ice and at a coastal site in Utqiaġvik, Alaska, during spring 2015. Model estimations of hourly and monthly average BrO are improved by assuming a constant yield of 0.1 % molecular bromine from all snowpack surfaces on ozone deposition. The blowing snow aerosol mechanism increases modeled BrO by providing more bromide-rich aerosol surface area for reactive bromine recycling. The snowpack mechanism led to increased model BrO across the Arctic Ocean with maximum production in coastal regions, whereas the blowing snow aerosol mechanism increases BrO in specific areas due to high surface wind speeds. Our uniform snowpack source has a greater impact on BrO mixing ratios than the blowing snow source. Model results best replicate several features of BrO observations during spring 2015 when using both mechanisms in conjunction, adding evidence that these mechanisms are both active during the Arctic spring. Extending our transport model throughout the entire year leads to predictions of enhanced fall BrO that are not supported by observations.

As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after CO2 and methane, tropospheric ozone (O3) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O3 depletion in the springtime, however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been reported previously, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models, nor improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O3 by 5 % to 15 % depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O3 within a range of +/- 50 % depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within +/- 8 % at most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O3 near the tropopause (~300 hPa or ~8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20 % at Eureka. Observed and simulated O3 precursors (CO, NOx and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NOx but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O3 matches the observed O3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade , model results are as highly variable as ever, and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric.

The representation of cloud, aerosol, and their impact on radiation and precipitation are some of the largest uncertainties in climate models. The transport of the biomass burning (BB) aerosol from the southwestern African continent over the southeast Atlantic and the presence of semi-permanent Stratocumulus (Sc) clouds in the marine boundary layer provides an optimal case study for investigating how natural aerosols influence modeled cloud microphysical properties in terms of optical properties, radiative fluxes, and precipitation.In this study, the WRF-Chem v4.3.0 is used with the aerosol-aware Thompson–Eidhammer microphysics scheme coupled with the GOCART aerosol scheme for a better representation of cloud-aerosol interaction. Simulations are performed over the Southern African domain during the summer 2017 and first compared to observations from the ORACLES-2017 and CLARIFY-2017 measurements campaigns to evaluate how well the modified WRF-Chem model captures mass concentrations and absorption properties of BB, as well as the cloud characteristics (cloud cover, precipitation). The sensitivity of modeled cloud microphysical properties and precipitation to BB aerosols is tested by performing a series of simulations with different concentrations and absorption properties of the BB aerosols.

Black carbon (BC) aerosol emission is an important contributor to particulate matter (PM) pollution in China, leading to adverse health effects and premature deaths. BC aerosols can also affect boundary layer meteorology by heating the atmosphere, due to the unique property of BC to absorb solar radiation. In contrast, sulphate aerosols reflect solar radiation and thus cool the surface. How individual aerosol pollutants influence boundary layer meteorology on a multi-year timescale is not well known. A particularly important aspect of this influence is a potential feedback process, where changed boundary layer conditions may influence present aerosol concentrations, potentially exacerbating near-surface pollution levels. In this work, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) at 45 km horizontal resolution covering East and South Asia, and at 15 km resolution covering East China. Simulations are driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and anthropogenic emissions are from the latest version of the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). Multi-year simulations are evaluated against observations of meteorological parameters and air quality data for China. Preliminary results show that aerosol-radiation interactions due to BC lead to higher annual near-surface PM concentrations, underscoring the importance of mitigating black carbon aerosol emissions. The elevated PM concentrations can be explained by a shallower boundary layer and reduced turbulent mixing near the surface associated with BC. Possible effects of aerosol-radiation interactions on extreme pollution events, including not only extreme PM events but also extreme ozone (O3) events, will be examined.

Reactive halogens play a prominent role in the atmospheric chemistry of the Arctic during springtime. Field measurements and models studies suggest that halogens are emitted to the atmosphere from snowpack and reactions on wind-blown snow. The relative importance of snowpack and blowing snow sources is still debated, both at local scales and regionally throughout the Arctic. To understand implications of these halogen sources on a pan-Arctic scale, we simulate Arctic reactive bromine chemistry in the atmospheric chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Two mechanisms are included: 1) a blowing snow sea salt aerosol formation mechanism and 2) a snowpack mechanism assuming uniform molecular bromine production from all snow surfaces. We compare simulations including neither mechanism, each mechanism individually, and both mechanisms to examine conditions where one process may dominate or the mechanisms may interact. We compare the models using these mechanisms to observations of bromine monoxide (BrO) derived from multiple-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) instruments on O-Buoy platforms on the sea ice and at a coastal site in Utqiaġvik, Alaska during spring 2015. Model estimations of hourly and monthly average BrO are improved by assuming a constant yield of 0.1 % molecular bromine from all snowpack surfaces on ozone deposition. The blowing snow mechanism increases BrO by providing more surface area for reactive bromine recycling. The snowpack mechanism led to increased BrO across the Arctic Ocean with maximum production in coastal regions, whereas the blowing snow mechanism increases BrO in specific areas due to high surface windspeeds. Our uniform snowpack source has a greater impact on BrO mixing ratios than the blowing snow source. Model results best replicate several features of BrO observations during spring 2015 when using both mechanisms in conjunction, adding evidence that these mechanisms are both active during the Arctic Spring. Extending our transport model throughout the entire year leads to predictions of enhanced fall BrO that are not supported by observations.

The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.

International audience; The Arctic is influenced by long-range transport of air masses from mid-latitudes, during winter and spring. There are also local sources within the Arctic region, such as combustion for heating and power production, leading to enhance aerosol concentrations in remote sites. However, the formation of secondary aerosol particles in the dark wintertime Arctic conditions is poorly understood. In this study, which contributes to the Air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies - Alaskan Layered Pollution and Chemical Analysis (PACES-ALPACA) initiative, the Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate wintertime pollution over central Alaska, focusing on the Fairbanks region, during the pre-ALPACA campaign in winter 2019. Fairbanks is the most polluted city in the United States during winter due to high local emissions and the occurrence of strong surface temperature inversions trapping pollutants near the surface. During the pre-ALPACA campaign aerosols, oxidants and aerosol precursors, were measured in key locations in Fairbanks, including vertical profile data collected in the lowest 20m, with the aim to identify the origins of aerosols during pollution episodes. A quasi-hemispheric WRF-Chem simulation, using an improved WRF set-up with increased vertical resolution below 2km, is used to assess large-scale synoptic conditions and to evaluate Arctic Haze, influencing central Alaska. The model was run with Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System v4.2 anthropogenic emissions, with an initial horizontal resolution of 10x10km. Discrepancies in modelled aerosols compared to available data are investigated (missing dark formation mechanisms, treatment of removal processes). Fine-resolution WRF-Chem simulations, including local point sources, over the Fairbanks region are used to explore chemical and dynamical processes influencing aerosol formation under different meteorological conditions observed during the campaign, including a cold stable episode and a period with possible mixing of air masses from aloft. Model results are evaluated against data from surface monitoring sites and collected during the campaign. The sensitivity of modelled aerosols to meteorological factors (relative humidity, vertical mixing) are examined.

International audience; Air pollution transported from mid-latitudes influences the Arctic during wintertime, leading to the formation of Arctic Haze.Local emissions, such as combustion for heating in cold winter conditions, also contribute to wintertime air pollution. However,the formation of secondary aerosol particles in cold/dark wintertime Arctic conditions, is poorly understood.In this study, which contributes to the Air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies - Alaskan Layered Pollutionand Arctic Chemical Analysis (PACES-ALPACA) initiative, the Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate wintertime pollution over Alaska focusing on Prudhoe Bay and the Fairbanks region,respectively. Fairbanks is the most polluted city in the United States during wintertime, due to high local emissions and theoccurrence of strong surface temperature inversions trapping pollutants near the surface. On the other hand, the Prudhoe Bayoilfields contribute to wintertime air pollution in northern Alaska.In a first study, the sensitivity of simulated aerosols to local anthropogenic emissions is investigated over northern Alaska andevaluated against observations at Utqiaġvik, collected during a campaign in Jan-Feb 2014. FLEXible PARTicle dispersionmodel coupled with WRF, is also used to identify the pollutant origins in air masses in the boundary layer, which are influencingUtqiaġvik during periods with elevated aerosols. The contribution of locally produced anthropogenic and natural aerosolsrelative to remote pollutants is also examined.In a second study, focusing on winter 2019 (ALPACA pre-campaign) over Fairbanks, large-scale synoptic conditions and remote anthropogenic sources affecting background aerosols are estimated. The sensitivity ofsecondary aerosol formation to meteorological factors, such as relative humidity, boundary layer stability are examined.Discrepancies in modelled secondary aerosols compared to available data are investigated (e.g. missing dark formationmechanisms, removal processes, emissions). The role of local/regional dynamical processes influencing aerosols under differentmeteorological conditions observed during the field campaign, such as a cold stable episode or a period with potential mixing ofair masses from aloft, are also investigated.

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric bromine are known to cause ozone depletion in the Arctic, which is most frequently observed during springtime. We implement a detailed description of bromine and chlorine chemistry within the WRF‐Chem 4.1.1 model, and two different descriptions of Arctic bromine activation: (1) heterogeneous chemistry on surface snow on sea ice, triggered by ozone deposition to snow (Toyota et al., 2011 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-3949-2011), and (2) heterogeneous reactions on sea salt aerosols emitted through the sublimation of lofted blowing snow (Yang et al., 2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034536). In both mechanisms, bromine activation is sustained by heterogeneous reactions on aerosols and surface snow. Simulations for spring 2012 covering the entire Arctic reproduce frequent and widespread ozone depletion events, and comparisons with observations of ozone show that these developments significantly improve model predictions during the Arctic spring. Simulations show that ozone depletion events can be initiated by both surface snow on sea ice, or by aerosols that originate from blowing snow. On a regional scale, in spring 2012, snow on sea ice dominates halogen activation and ozone depletion at the surface. During this period, blowing snow is a major source of Arctic sea salt aerosols but only triggers a few depletion events., Key Points Halogen activation and its role in Arctic surface ozone depletion events (ODEs) is modeled using WRF‐ChemTwo halogen activation mechanisms are implemented (1) surface snow and (2) blowing snowA spring 2012 case study indicates that both mechanisms can trigger near‐surface ODEs, but that surface snow dominates

Mineral dust and black carbon (BC) constitute the most important aerosols present in the atmosphere and cryosphere and have well known potential effects on regional and global climate. Upon their deposition they can impact snow albedo, snowpack evolution and timing of snow-melt. However, capturing BC and dust deposition events in mountain regions is currently a challenge due to the complexity of aerosol-cloud interactions and the specifics of mountain meteorological systems, which are difficult to represent in large scale models. Here, we use a case study of dust deposition, between 30 March and 5 April 2018, when a significant dust deposition event was observed within the seasonal snowpack at the Col du Lautaret in the French Alps. This comes in addition to the background BC deposition that occurred during the same period. Specifically, we investigate the role of model resolution in capturing both mountain meteorology, precipitation, and the resulting model predicted dust and BC deposition. For this, the meteorological-chemical model WRF-Chem is used with three nested domains including the primary dust emissions region in Africa (low resolution domain), a second domain that includes Europe, and a third high resolution domain over the Alps. We compare WRF-Chem predicted aerosol and meteorological properties (at different model resolution) with in-situ, remote sensing, and reanalysis products to validate the model and quantify the added value of high resolution modelling within the Alps. We conclude that predicted mountain meteorology including precipitation is significantly better when using the high resolution configuration (3 x 3 km horizontal resolution domain). Additionally, this improved meteorology predicted by the model has significant impacts on predicted dust deposition and BC. The better representation of the mountain meteorology when the resolution becomes finer leads to improved model predicted dust and BC deposition to alpine snow. Implications for this, including improved resolution within models that consider the full aerosol lifecycle in the atmosphere and in snow covered mountain regions is discussed.

The wintertime Arctic is influenced by air pollution transported from mid-latitudes, leading to formation of Arctic Haze, as well as local emissions such as combustion for heating and power production in very cold winter conditions. This contributes to severe air pollution episodes, with enhanced aerosol concentrations, inter-dispersed with cleaner periods. However, the formation of secondary aerosol particles (sulphate, organics, nitrate) in cold/dark wintertime Arctic conditions, which could contribute to these pollution episodes, is poorly understood.In this study, which contributes to the Air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies - Alaskan Layered Pollution and Arctic Chemical Analysis (PACES-ALPACA) initiative, the Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate wintertime pollution over central Alaska focusing on the Fairbanks region, during the pre-ALPACA campaign in winter 2019-2020. Fairbanks is the most polluted city in the United States during wintertime, due to high local emissions and the occurrence of strong surface temperature inversions trapping pollutants near the surface.Firstly, different WRF meteorological and surface schemes were tested over Alaska with a particular focus on improving simulations of the wintertime boundary layer structure including temperature inversions. An optimal WRF set-up, with increased vertical resolution below 2km, was selected based on evaluation against available data.Secondly, a quasi-hemispheric WRF-Chem simulation, using the improved WRF setup, was used to assess large-scale synoptic conditions and to evaluate background aerosols originating from remote anthropogenic and natural sources affecting central Alaska during the campaign. The model was run with Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants (ECLIPSE) v6b anthropogenic emissions and improved sea-spray aerosol emissions. Discrepancies in modelled aerosols compared available data are being investigated (e.g. missing dark formation mechanisms, treatment of removal processes).Thirdly, fine resolution simulations, using high resolution emissions (e.g. 2019 CAMS inventory), including local point sources, over the Fairbanks region, were used to investigate chemical and dynamical processes influencing aerosols under different meteorological conditions observed during the field campaign including a cold stable episode and a period with possible mixing of air masses from aloft. The model was evaluated against available aerosol, oxidant (ozone) and aerosol precursor data from surface monitoring sites and collected during the pre-campaign, including vertical profile data collected in the lowest 20m. The sensitivity of modelled aerosols to meteorological factors, such as relative humidity, temperature gradients and vertical mixing under winter conditions are investigated.

Arctic warming leading to reduced summertime sea-ice is likely to lead to increased local shipping especially along the Northeast Passage near the northern coasts of Norway and Russia, which are shorter than the traditional southerly routes. Here, the regional chemistry-transport model WRF-Chem is used to examine the effects of shipping emissions on levels of air pollutants and deposition fluxes over the Barents Sea both for present-day and future conditions, based on a high growth scenario. Present-day shipping emissions are found to have already substantial effects on ozone concentrations, but limited effects on sulphate and nitrate aerosols. Predicted future changes in ozone are also important, particularly in regions with low nitrogen oxide concentrations, and results are sensitive to the way in which diversion shipping is distributed due to non-linear effects on photochemical ozone production. Whilst modest future increases in sulphate and nitrate aerosols are predicted, large enhancements in dry deposition of sulphur dioxide and wet deposition of nitrogen compounds to the Barents Sea are predicted. Such levels of future nitrogen deposition would represent a significant atmospheric source of oceanic nitrogen affecting sensitive marine ecosystems.

Precipitation patterns are expected to change in the future climate, affecting humans through a number of factors. Global climate models (GCM) are our best tools for projecting large-scale changes in climate, but they cannot make reliable projections locally. To abate this problem, we have downscaled three GCMs with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to 50 km horizontal resolution over South America, and 10 km resolution for central Chile, Peru and southern Brazil. Historical simulations for years 1996–2005 generally compare well to precipitation observations and reanalyses. Future simulations for central Chile show reductions in annual precipitation and increases in the number of dry days at the end-of-the-century for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, regardless of resolution and GCM boundary conditions used. However, future projections for Peru and southern Brazil are more uncertain, and simulations show that increasing the model resolution can switch the sign of precipitation projections. Differences in future precipitation changes between global/regional and high resolution (10 km) are only mildly influenced by the orography resolution, but linked to the convection parameterization, reflected in very different changes in dry static energy flux divergence, vertical velocity and boundary layer height. Our findings imply that using results directly from GCMs, and even from coarse-resolution (50 km) regional models, may give incorrect conclusions about regional-scale precipitation projections. While climate modelling at convection-permitting scales is computationally costly, we show that coarse-resolution regional simulations using a scale-aware convection parameterization, instead of a more conventional scheme, better mirror fine-resolution precipitation projections.

International audience; The Arctic is influenced by long-range transport of aerosols from mid-latitude emissions, especially in winter and spring, leading to formation of Arctic Haze. Natural aerosols, such as sea-salt, also contribute to wintertime Arctic aerosol loadings. Local sources of aerosols are highlighted as being important, but many uncertainties remain about the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic sources and aerosol processes. In particular, models have difficulties reproducing observed aerosol distributions and composition.In this study, the Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to investigate origins of wintertime aerosols over northern Alaska focusing on the influence of local versus remote sources and examining the role of meteorology, in particular, stable boundary layers that can trap aerosols near the surface. The model was run first in hemispheric mode using AMAP-ECLIPSEv6 anthropogenic emissions and a dynamical (WRF) setup for improved simulation of cold, stable meteorological conditions over wintertime Alaska. Model results are evaluated against available surface data and, in particular, data collected at Utqiaġvik during January-February 2014. A variety of air masses were sampled including air masses originating from the Arctic Ocean and from the North Slope of Alaska oil and gas extraction emissions to the east on the northern coast of Alaska.We investigate the ability of the model to reproduce observed natural aerosols, especially local and transported sea-salt and marine organic aerosols. The sensitivity of modelled aerosols and natural emissions to, for example, sea-ice fraction, surface winds, and relative humidity, are examined, as well as model treatments of marine organic aerosols. We also investigate the ability of the model to reproduce anthropogenic aerosols originating from remote sources and runs including local emissions are used to assess the influence of aerosols originating from the North Slope of Alaska oil fields. Simulations at higher resolutions over northern Alaska are also used to examine the effect of increasing model resolution on simulated meteorology and boundary layer aerosols. The results are used to estimate the relative contributions of local and remote natural and anthropogenic aerosols to wintertime aerosols over northern Alaska.

The role of polar regions increases in terms of megatrends such as globalization, new transport routes, demography and use of natural resources consequent effects of regional and transported pollutant concentrations. We set up the ERA-PLANET Strand 4 project iCUPE – integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments to provide novel insights and observational data on global grand challenges with an Arctic focus. We utilize an integrated approach combining in situ observations, satellite remote sensing Earth Observations (EO) and multi-scale modeling to synthesize data from comprehensive long-term measurements, intensive campaigns and satellites to deliver data products, metrics and indicators to the stakeholders concerning the environmental status, availability and extraction of natural resources in the polar areas. The iCUPE work consists of thematic state-of-the-art research and provision of novel data in atmospheric pollution, local sources and transboundary transport, characterization of arctic surfaces and their changes, assessment of concentrations and impacts of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants and their cycling, quantification of emissions from natural resource extraction and validation and optimization of satellite Earth Observation (EO) data streams. In this paper we introduce the iCUPE project and summarize initial results arising out of integration of comprehensive in situ observations, satellite remote sensing and multiscale modeling in the Arctic context.

More than half of the world's population lives in urban areas (UN Population Division 2018 The World's cities in 2018 (UN: New York)), which are especially vulnerable to climate extremes (Field et al 2012 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)). Urbanization itself is known to increase surface temperatures, but its quantitative effect on extreme precipitation remains very uncertain. Using decadal convection-permitting climate simulations in four midlatitude megacities (Paris, France; New York City, USA; Tokyo, Japan; Shanghai, China), we show that urbanization can strongly increase the frequency and intensity of extreme urban precipitation. Frequency increases far more than intensity, by +16% (11%–22%) (95% confidence interval) for 1 year daily extremes, and +26% (11%–41%) for 1 year hourly extremes, downwind of city centers. Intensities of the same events increase by +5% (3.2%–6.4%) (daily extremes) and +6% (3.2%–9.8%) (hourly extremes), respectively. The intensity and frequency of extremes increases more for the rarest, most extreme events considered, and there is some indication that hourly extremes increase more than daily extremes. Our simulations also show that direct urban anthropogenic emissions of heat could be an important factor driving these changes. Urbanization is expected to continue in the future, and our results indicate that these effects should be considered in urban planning decisions to make cities more resilient to extreme precipitation.

This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Advances in Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling, consisting of papers that focus on the evaluation, climate change assessment, and feedback processes in kilometer-scale simulations and observations., A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes., IG and LS have been supported by the Croatian Science Foundation (HrZZ) project CARE (no. 2831). JF acknowledges support by the Spanish R + D programme through MINECO/FEDER co-funded project INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R). AL-G is supported by the Spanish government though grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/FEDER co-funded project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). JM and KW-S gratefully acknowledge the support by the German Science Foundation (DFG) through project FOR 1695. DM, MP, and HT gratefully acknowledge the support received via the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project NHCM-2 (no. P24758-N29) and the projects HighEnd:Extremes and EASICLIM, funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (nos. KR13AC6K10981 and KR16AC0K13160, respectively). SS and TL acknowledge the support of NOTUR project no. NN9280K and the Research Council of Norway and its basic institute support of their strategic project on Climate Services. RMC and PMMS gratefully acknowledge the support of the SOLAR project (PTDC/GEOMET/7078/2014) financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. EJ Kendon gratefully acknowledges funding from the Joint Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). S. Khodayar research is supported by the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research). Support of Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic for funding the participation in Euro-CORDEX activities via the scheme INTER-TRANSFER under the Grant no. LTT17007. Funding from the Research Council of Norway through the SUPER (Grant no. 250573) and HYPRE (Grant no. 243942) projects.

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength – and hence the rareness – of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation., Scientific Reports, 9 (1), ISSN:2045-2322

Decreasing sea ice and increasing marine navigability in northern latitudes have changed Arctic ship traffic patterns in recent years and are predicted to increase annual ship traffic in the Arctic in the future. Development of effective regulations to manage environmental impacts of shipping requires an understanding of ship emissions and atmospheric processing in the Arctic environment. As part of the summer 2014 NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols) campaign, the plume dispersion and gas and particle emission factors of effluents originating from the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Amundsen operating near Resolute Bay, NU, Canada, were investigated. The Amundsen burned distillate fuel with 1.5 wt % sulfur. Emissions were studied via plume intercepts using the Polar 6 aircraft measurements, an analytical plume dispersion model, and using the FLEXPART-WRF Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The first plume intercept by the research aircraft was carried out on 19 July 2014 during the operation of the Amundsen in the open water. The second and third plume intercepts were carried out on 20 and 21 July 2014 when the Amundsen had reached the ice edge and operated under ice-breaking conditions. Typical of Arctic marine navigation, the engine load was low compared to cruising conditions for all of the plume intercepts. The measured species included mixing ratios of CO2, NOx, CO, SO2, particle number concentration (CN), refractory black carbon (rBC), and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The results were compared to similar experimental studies in mid-latitudes. Plume expansion rates (γ) were calculated using the analytical model and found to be γ = 0.75 ± 0.81, 0.93 ± 0.37, and 1.19 ± 0.39 for plumes 1, 2, and 3, respectively. These rates were smaller than prior studies conducted at mid-latitudes, likely due to polar boundary layer dynamics, including reduced turbulent mixing compared to mid-latitudes. All emission factors were in agreement with prior observations at low engine loads in mid-latitudes. Ice-breaking increased the NOx emission factor from EFNOx = 43.1 ± 15.2 to 71.6 ± 9.68 and 71.4 ± 4.14 g kg-diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3, likely due to changes in combustion temperatures. The CO emission factor was EFCO = 137 ± 120, 12.5 ± 3.70 and 8.13 ± 1.34 g kg-diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3. The rBC emission factor was EFrBC = 0.202 ± 0.052 and 0.202 ± 0.125 g kg-diesel−1 for plumes 1 and 2. The CN emission factor was reduced while ice-breaking from EFCN = 2.41 ± 0.47 to 0.45 ± 0.082 and 0.507 ± 0.037 × 1016 kg-diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3. At 0.6 % supersaturation, the CCN emission factor was comparable to observations in mid-latitudes at low engine loads with EFCCN = 3.03 ± 0.933, 1.39 ± 0.319, and 0.650 ± 0.136 × 1014 kg-diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3.

International audience

International audience; The Arctic is influenced by air pollution transported from lower latitudes, and increasingly by local sources such as shipping and resource extraction. Local Arctic emissions could increase significantly in the future due to industrialization in a warming Arctic and further influence Arctic climate. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting, including chemistry, to investigate current (2012) and future (2050) sources of Arctic aerosol and ozone pollution and their radiative impacts, focusing on spring and summer emissions from midlatitude anthropogenic sources, biomass burning, Arctic shipping, and Arctic gas flaring. Results show that remote anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are likely to remain the main source of Arctic pollution burdens and of black carbon (BC) deposition over snow, and the main contributors to direct aerosol and ozone radiative effects in the Arctic. However, local Arctic flaring emissions are already a major source of BC in northwestern Russia, with a direct radiative effect of ∼25 mW/m2, and Arctic shipping is a strong current source of aerosols and ozone during summer in the Nordic Seas. We find that the direct effect of ozone and aerosols from summertime Arctic shipping is respectively negative (due to frequent temperature inversions) and positive (because of the high surface albedo) in our simulations, two new results. With the development of diversion shipping through the Arctic Ocean in summer 2050, Arctic shipping emissions could become the main source of surface aerosol and ozone pollution at the surface, with strong associated indirect effects of −0.8 W/m2, while flaring would remain an important BC source.

International audience

During the ACCESS airborne campaign in July 2012, extensive boreal forest fires resulted in significant aerosol transport to the Arctic. A 10-day episode combining intense biomass burning over Siberia and low-pressure systems over the Arctic Ocean resulted in efficient transport of plumes containing black carbon (BC) towards the Arctic, mostly in the upper troposphere (6–8 km). A combination of in situ observations (DLR Falcon aircraft), satellite analysis and WRF-Chem simulations is used to understand the vertical and horizontal transport mechanisms of BC with a focus on the role of wet removal. Between the northwestern Norwegian coast and the Svalbard archipelago, the Falcon aircraft sampled plumes with enhanced CO concentrations up to 200 ppbv and BC mixing ratios up to 25 ng kg−1. During transport to the Arctic region, a large fraction of BC particles are scavenged by two wet deposition processes, namely wet removal by large-scale precipitation and removal in wet convective updrafts, with both processes contributing almost equally to the total accumulated deposition of BC. Our results underline that applying a finer horizontal resolution (40 instead of 100 km) improves the model performance, as it significantly reduces the overestimation of BC levels observed at a coarser resolution in the mid-troposphere. According to the simulations at 40 km, the transport efficiency of BC (TEBC) in biomass burning plumes was larger (60 %), because it was impacted by small accumulated precipitation along trajectory (1 mm). In contrast TEBC was small (BC due to large-scale precipitation is responsible for a sharp meridional gradient in the distribution of BC concentrations. Wet removal in cumulus clouds is the cause of modeled vertical gradient of TEBC, especially in the mid-latitudes, reflecting the distribution of convective precipitation, but is dominated in the Arctic region by the large-scale wet removal associated with the formation of stratocumulus clouds in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that produce frequent drizzle.

In this study, the WRF-Chem regional model is updated to improve simulated short-lived pollutants (aerosols, ozone) in the Arctic. Specifically, we include in WRF-Chem 3.5.1 (with SAPRC-99 gas-phase chemistry and MOSAIC aerosols) (1) a correction to the sedimentation of aerosols, (2) dimethylsulfide (DMS) oceanic emissions and gas-phase chemistry, (3) an improved representation of the dry deposition of trace gases over seasonal snow, (4) an UV-albedo dependence on snow and ice cover for photolysis calculations. We also (5) correct the representation of surface temperatures over melting ice in the Noah Land Surface Model and (6) couple and further test the recent KF-CuP (Kain-Fritsch + Cumulus Potential) cumulus parameterization that includes the effect of cumulus clouds on aerosols and trace gases. The updated model is used to perform quasi-hemispheric simulations of aerosols and ozone, which are evaluated against surface measurements of black carbon (BC), sulfate, and ozone, and airborne measurements of BC in the Arctic. The updated model shows significant improvements in terms of seasonal aerosol cycles at the surface, root mean square errors (RMSE) for surface ozone and aerosols and BC aloft, compared to the base version of the model and to previous large-scale evaluations of WRF-Chem in the Arctic. These improvements are mostly due to the inclusion of cumulus effects on aerosols and trace gases in KF-CuP (improved RMSE for surface BC and BC profiles, surface sulfate and surface ozone), the improved surface temperatures over sea ice (surface ozone, BC, and sulfate), and the updated trace gas deposition and UV-albedo over snow and ice (improved RMSE and correlation for surface ozone). DMS emissions and chemistry improve surface sulfate at all Arctic sites except Zeppelin, and correcting aerosol sedimentation has little influence on aerosols except in the upper troposphere.

International audience; Local emissions of Arctic air pollutants and their impacts on climate, ecosystems and health are poorly understood. Future increases due to Arctic warming or economic drivers may put additional pressures on the fragile Arctic environment already affected by mid-latitude air pollution. Aircraft data were collected, for the first time, downwind of shipping and petroleum extraction facilities in the European Arctic. Data analysis reveals discrepancies compared to commonly used emission inventories, highlighting missing emissions (e.g. drilling rigs) and the intermittent nature of certain emissions (e.g. flaring, shipping). Present-day shipping/petroleum extraction emissions already appear to be impacting pollutant (ozone, aerosols) levels along the Norwegian coast and are estimated to cool and warm the Arctic climate, respectively. Future increases in shipping may lead to short-term (long-term) warming (cooling) due to reduced sulphur (CO2) emissions, and be detrimental to regional air quality (ozone). Further quantification of local Arctic emission impacts is needed.

International audience; Aerosol and ozone pollution in the Arctic predominantly originates from long-range pollution transport of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions from the midlatitudes. However, local emission sources such as shipping and oil and gas extraction could already have an important local or regional influence on atmospheric composition and on the Arctic energy budget, even though this influence is not well characterized. In this work, we perform quasi-hemispheric simulations of aerosols and ozone in the Arctic with the WRF-Chem model. The model is used to evaluate and compare the impacts of midlatitude anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, and local Arctic emissions (oil and gas, shipping) in terms of atmospheric composition, cloud/aerosol interactions, pollutant deposition and radiative forcing in the Arctic. Local Arctic emissions are expected to increase in the future due to Arctic warming and reduced sea ice cover. For this reason we also compare the impact of these different sources in 2050, for a future scenario with high Arctic shipping growth and decreasing midlatitude anthropogenic emissions.

International audience; The Arctic warms twice as fast as the rest of the world, and the Arctic Ocean is projected to become nearly ice-free in summer within this century. This opens the possibilities for hydrocarbon extraction, which will result in an increase of local emissions of short-lived climate forcers and greenhouse gases in a very sensitive region. Type and quantity of emissions of off-shore oil/gas exploration are not well known and very few independent measurements exist. During the ACCESS (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society aircraft) campaign in 2012 and one follow-on mission in 2016, the DLR Falcon conducted measurements in the Norwegian Sea area. The objective of these missions were to study chemical composition of emissions and to quantify source strengths of climate forcers and precursors (NOx, SO2, CO2, CH4 and non-vol. particles) released by oil/gas production. The measurements, carried out in cooperation with the Statoil company, focused on the largest platforms in that area, including oil and gas production facilities, drilling rigs and storage tankers. Elevated levels of most trace gas and aerosol concentrations were observed downstream of each facility. Using high resolution particle dispersion modelling, the measurements are used to constrain atmospheric emissions of off-shore oil/gas production in the Norwegian Sea.

In this study, we quantify the impacts of shipping pollution on air quality and shortwave radiative effect in northern Norway, using WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with chemistry) simulations combined with high-resolution, real-time STEAM2 (Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model version 2) shipping emissions. STEAM2 emissions are evaluated using airborne measurements from the ACCESS (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society) aircraft campaign, which was conducted in the summer 2012, in two ways. First, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are derived for specific ships by combining in situ measurements in ship plumes and FLEXPART-WRF plume dispersion modeling, and these values are compared to STEAM2 emissions for the same ships. Second, regional WRF-Chem runs with and without STEAM2 ship emissions are performed at two different resolutions, 3 km × 3 km and 15 km × 15 km, and evaluated against measurements along flight tracks and average campaign profiles in the marine boundary layer and lower troposphere. These comparisons show that differences between STEAM2 emissions and calculated emissions can be quite large (−57 to +148 %) for individual ships, but that WRF-Chem simulations using STEAM2 emissions reproduce well the average NOx, SO2 and O3 measured during ACCESS flights. The same WRF-Chem simulations show that the magnitude of NOx and ozone (O3) production from ship emissions at the surface is not very sensitive (10 particulate matter enhancements due to ships are moderately sensitive (15 %) to resolution. The 15 km resolution WRF-Chem simulations are used to estimate the regional impacts of shipping pollution in northern Norway. Our results indicate that ship emissions are an important source of pollution along the Norwegian coast, enhancing 15-day-averaged surface concentrations of NOx ( ∼ +80 %), SO2 ( ∼ +80 %), O3 ( ∼ +5 %), black carbon ( ∼ +40 %), and PM2.5 ( ∼ +10 %). The residence time of black carbon originating from shipping emissions is 1.4 days. Over the same 15-day period, ship emissions in northern Norway have a global shortwave (direct + semi-direct + indirect) radiative effect of −9.3 m Wm−2.

Decreasing sea ice and increasing marine navigability in northern latitudes have changed Arctic ship traffic patterns in recent years and are predicted to increase annual ship traffic in the Arctic in the future. Development of effective regulations to manage environmental impacts of shipping requires an understanding of ship emissions and atmospheric processing in the Arctic environment. As part of the summer 2014 NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols) campaign, the plume dispersion and gas and particle emission factors of emissions originating from the Canadian Coast Guard Amundsen icebreaker operating near Resolute Bay, NU, Canada have been investigated. The Amundsen burnt distillate fuel with 1.5 wt % sulfur. Emissions were studied via plume intercepts using aircraft measurements, an analytical plume dispersion model, and using the FLEXPART-WRF Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The first plume intercepts by research aircraft were carried out on 19 July 2014 during the operation of the Amundsen in the open water. The second and third plume intercept measurements were carried out on 20 and 21 July 2014 when the Amundsen had reached the ice edge and operated under icebreaking conditions. Typical of Arctic marine navigation, the engine load was low compared to cruising conditions for all of the plume intercepts. The measured species included mixing ratios of CO2, NOx, CO, SO2, particle number concentration (CN), refractory Black Carbon (rBC), and Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN). The results were compared to similar experimental studies in mid latitudes. Plume expansion rates (γ) were calculated using the analytical model and found to be γ = 0.75 ± 0.80, 0.93 ± 0.37, and 1.19 ± 0.39 for plumes 1, 2, and 3, respectively. These rates are smaller than prior studies conducted at mid latitudes, likely due to polar boundary layer dynamics, including reduced turbulent mixing compared to mid latitudes. All emission factors were in agreement with prior observations at low engine loads in mid latitudes. Icebreaking increased the NOx emission factor from EFNOx = 22.3 ± 8.0 to 57.8 ± 11.0 and 65.8 ± 4.0 g kg–diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3, likely due to change in combustion temperatures. The CO emission factor was EFCO = 6.4 ± 11.7, 6.8 ± 2.2 and 5.0 ± 1.0 g kg–diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3. The rBC emission factor was EFrBC = 0.20 ± 0.04 and 0.25 ± 0.12 g kg–diesel−1 for plumes 1 and 2. The CN emission factor was reduced while icebreaking from EFCPC = 1.96 ± 0.41 to 0.43 ± 0.11 and 0.47 ± 0.04 × 1016 kg–diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3. At 0.6 % supersaturation, the CCN emission factor was lower than observations in mid latitudes at low engine loads with EFCCN = 1.63 ± 0.41 to 1.06 ± 0.32 and 0.28 ± 0.07 × 1014 kg–diesel−1 for plumes 1, 2, and 3.

International audience; The Arctic is increasingly open to human activity due to rapid Arctic warming, associated with decreased sea ice extent and snow cover. While pollution from in-Arctic sources is currently low, oil and gas extraction and marine traffic could become a significant future source of short-lived pollutants (aerosols, ozone) in the Arctic. It is currently unclear if these local sources might become significant compared to the long-range transport of anthropogenic pollution from the midlatitudes, which is currently the main source of Arctic pollution.Here, we investigate the current (2012) and future (2050) impact of emissions from shipping and oil and gas extraction on Arctic aerosols and ozone, in relation to emissions from long-range transport. These impacts are determined by performing 6-month long, quasi-hemispheric simulations over the Arctic region with the WRF-Chem model. Our regional simulations include up-to-date representations of cloud/aerosol interactions and secondary organic aerosol formation developed recently for WRF-Chem. In order to determine the impact of Arctic shipping and oil and gas extraction, we use recent emission inventories by Winther et al., 2014 for local shipping and ECLIPSEv5 for oil and gas flaring. Both inventories suggest that current and future emissions from these sources are higher than previous estimates. Simulations are evaluated using measurements at Arctic surface sites and aircraft campaigns (ACCESS, YAK) in 2012. Model results are then used to assess the impact of Arctic shipping and oil and gas flaring on modeled surface aerosol and ozone concentrations, direct aerosol and ozone radiative effects, indirect aerosol radiative effects, and aerosol deposition. Results are used to determine if these local emissions are expected to have a significant influence on these quantities at the local or the regional scale, compared to emissions transported from the midlatitudes and to other emission sources, including boreal fires.

International audience; Arctic change has opened the region to new industrial activities, most notably transit shipping and resource extraction. The impacts that Arctic industrialization will have on pollutants and Arctic climate are not well understood. In order to understand how shipping and offshore oil/gas extraction impact on Arctic tropospheric chemistry and composition, we conducted the ACCESS (Arctic Climate Change, Economy, and Society, a European Union Seventh Framework Programme project) aircraft campaign. The campaign was conducted in July 2012 using the DLR Falcon research aircraft, based in Andenes, Norway. The Falcon was equipped with a suite of trace gas and aerosol instruments (black carbon, ozone, as well as other trace species) to characterize these emissions and their atmospheric chemistry. The Falcon performed nine scientific flights to study emissions from different ships (e.g. cargo, passenger, and fishing vessels) and a variety of offshore extraction facilities (e.g. drilling rigs, production and storage platforms) off the Norwegian Coast. Distinct differences in chemical and aerosol composition were found in emissions from these increasing pollution sources. We also studied the composition of biomass burning plumes imported from Siberian wildfires to put the emerging local pollution within a broader context. In addition to our measurements, we used a regional chemical transport model to study the influence of emerging pollution sources on gas and aerosol concentrations in the region. We will present an overview on the measured trace gas and aerosol properties of the different emission sources and discuss the impact of future local anthropogenic activities on the Arctic air composition by combining measurements with model simulations.