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The article is dedicated to highlighting current issues in the legislative regulation of the organization and conduct of gambling in Ukraine, as well as finding optimal solutions to these problems. Based on the conducted analysis, it is stated that the legislative regulation of public relations in the field of gambling is characterized by a wide range of issues, including deficiencies in the conceptual and categorical apparatus, insufficiently clear general requirements for gambling organizers, and the absence of requirements aimed at ensuring the stable operation of gambling establishments under conditions of unstable power supply. Directions for improving the conceptual and categorical apparatus of Ukrainian gambling legislation are outlined. The author formulates a definition of the term «gambling.» The types of gambling are systematized, the shortcomings of their legislative description are identified, and the necessity of legally defining lotteries as a type of gambling is substantiated. It is concluded that the general requirements for the subjects organizing and conducting gambling are insufficiently coordinated, particularly the requirements regarding their impeccable business reputation. It is proposed to establish a licensing requirement for the impeccable business reputation of legal entities intending to conduct business activities in the field of gamblin g. The article pays special attention to the problem of ensuring the uninterrupted functioning of gambling establishments under conditions of constant stabilization and emergency power outages. It is emphasized that during such outages, the operation of electronic and technical equipment in casinos and gaming halls is significantly disrupted, making it impossible to record the current state and results of games, fairly calculate winnings, and monitor draws online. In this regard, it is proposed to establish a legislative requirement for the mandatory equipping of casino and gaming hall establishments with backup power sources. To improve the administrative and legal foundations of the organization and conduct of gambling, the article proposes a comprehensive review of sectoral legislation to ensure its consistency, completeness of regulation, adequacy to modern realities, and compliance with the main trends of gambling development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education institutions increasingly aim to implement equity in admissions. However, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to determine which equitable admissions procedures are suitable in a specific context, nor which groups should be its beneficiaries. Therefore, we applied the Formal Consensus Method (FCM) to investigate the support amongst experts and stakeholders for different equitable admissions policies and target groups within the context of Health Professions Education in The Netherlands. We found majority support (median of ratings ≥ 7 on a scale of 1 to 9) in both groups for the target groups 'applicants with a low or average socio-economic status' and 'applicants with an underrepresented migration background'. The majority of participants was also in favor of Contextualized Admissions, especially when used to increase enrolment of applicants with a low or average socio-economic status, with an underrepresented migration background, and asylum status holders. Lastly, both groups supported lottery with extra tickets for applicants with an underrepresented migration background. However, as the range of ratings fell outside the FCM prescribed range of 5-9, no case in which there was majority support could be defined as a 'consensus'. The expert group proposed the use of Bonded Medical Places for applicants from the Caribbean parts of the Dutch Kingdom. The policies and target groups for which broad support was found, could contribute to equitable admissions, improved student diversity, and enhanced quality of health education and future care. Our application of the FCM in the area of equitable admissions policies may be useful for researchers in other countries where equity principles are not (widely) used in admissions decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the structural and cyclical macro-level correlates of betting, gaming and lottery expenditure par adult using data on 78 countries over the period 2003–2019. The results are different for each type of game, with significant similarities between betting and lottery. The main correlate of gaming expenditure is the median age of the population, with an inverted U-shaped relationship. For betting and lottery, the main positive correlates are the GDP per capita, with an elasticity greater than unity, the share of urban population and the quality of legal institutions. Patience is negatively related to betting expenditure. Religion plays a role for betting (positive link with being a Protestant country) and lottery (negative link with being a Muslim country). Gaming expenditure tends to be procyclical (negative link with unemployment) and lottery expenditure countercyclical (negative link with growth). These results can be useful to operators and governments in understanding the differences in the size of the gambling sector between countries and over time and defining appropriate business strategies and public policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract Higher education institutions increasingly aim to implement equity in admissions. However, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to determine which equitable admissions procedures are suitable in a specific context, nor which groups should be its beneficiaries. Therefore, we applied the Formal Consensus Method (FCM) to investigate the support amongst experts and stakeholders for different equitable admissions policies and target groups within the context of Health Professions Education in The Netherlands. We found majority support (median of ratings ≥ 7 on a scale of 1 to 9) in both groups for the target groups ‘applicants with a low or average socio-economic status’ and ‘applicants with an underrepresented migration background’. The majority of participants was also in favor of Contextualized Admissions, especially when used to increase enrolment of applicants with a low or average socio-economic status, with an underrepresented migration background, and asylum status holders. Lastly, both groups supported lottery with extra tickets for applicants with an underrepresented migration background. However, as the range of ratings fell outside the FCM prescribed range of 5-9, no case in which there was majority support could be defined as a ‘consensus’. The expert group proposed the use of Bonded Medical Places for applicants from the Caribbean parts of the Dutch Kingdom. The policies and target groups for which broad support was found, could contribute to equitable admissions, improved student diversity, and enhanced quality of health education and future care. Our application of the FCM in the area of equitable admissions policies may be useful for researchers in other countries where equity principles are not (widely) used in admissions decisions.

Weather and climate changes have been found to affect various socioeconomic outcomes, but the mechanisms that underlie these effects are not fully understood. This article examines the effect of temperature on risk-taking behaviour using daily weather and Powerball sales data in the U.S. The results show that a 1 degree Fahrenheit increase in daily maximum temperature, on average, leads to a 0.30% increase in the Powerball sales in the county. We also find that individuals tend to opt for riskier options on higher-temperature days. Alternative explanations for these effects, such as avoidance behaviour and the income effect, are ruled out as possible drivers of these effects. Our article provides new insights into a potential yet undiscovered channel through which temperature, or more broadly, weather and climate changes can influence socioeconomic outcomes. The findings also have important implications for policymakers concerned about weather and climate changes and their effects on human behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use natural experiments in Haiti and Denmark to test recent theoretical predictions about how agents react to random events. Using player-level administrative data, we find that the average lottery player avoids numbers that recently won (the gambler's fallacy). A small subset of players in each country exhibit the hot hand fallacy, and bet recent winners. We find no evidence of 'streak switching,' in which beliefs switch from the gambler's fallacy to the hot hand fallacy as winning streaks grow. Follow-up survey data in Haiti indicate that almost all lottery players believe that some numbers are more likely to win than others, and that recent winning history is an important factor in subjective beliefs about numbers' win probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the illusion of control by proxy in games of chance - an attempt to exert control by assigning it to others who are perceived as more capable, communable or luckier. Following up on research by Wohl & Enzle, who showed participants' preference to ask lucky others to play a lottery instead of doing it themselves, we included proxies with positive and negative qualities in the domains of agency and communion, as well good and bad luck. In three experiments (total N = 249) we tested participants' choices between these proxies and a random number generator in a task consisting of obtaining lottery numbers. We obtained consistent preventative illusions of control (i.e. avoidance of proxies with strictly negative qualities, as well as proxies with positive communion but negative agency), however we observed indifference between proxies with positive qualities and random number generators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution discusses the ambivalent role of the telephone in commodity futures trading. On one hand, the telephone proved to be useful in commodity futures trading since it was easier to use than the telegraph; on the other, it helped to spread prejudices about the commodity futures business. Indeed, this became a political issue in the 1890s as reforms were demanded. The large agrarians of Prussia in the East were particularly interested in these reforms. Above all, the marginal trading deriving from commodity futures was accused of being 'unfair business' and provoked great controversy among jurists before 1891. The prevailing view was that marginal trading 'was the equivalent of a lottery contract' and thus could not be litigated in court. Max Weber argued forcefully against this view in his work on stock markets, and the view was eventually rendered obsolete by a judgement from the Supreme Court of the Reich, which prompted law makers to act. Although the telephone benefited commodity trading, it also aroused perceptions of unproductive activity which were easy to associate with the view of commodity futures trading as a form of lottery. This was particularly the case because the self worth of workers rested at the end of the 19th century on 'hard physical labour', so that the impression of idleness was not tolerated. This is supported by Popitz's essay "Was tun wir, wenn wir spielen" from 2000: 'The actions of gamblers do not [leave behind] a product. [Rather], when they play, they are being creative in an unproductive way.' As such, the telephone helped commodity futures trading to communicate quickly, but at the same time it was also a symbol of unproductive activity and thereby fed the widespread mistrust of the commodity futures business and its associated marginal trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that firms in certain life cycle stages may be more subjectively valued by individual investors, leading to an optimistic bias in stock prices that is subsequently corrected upon the release of earnings news. Using a cash flow-based life cycle stage classification, introduction and decline stage companies exhibit three-day cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around earnings announcements that are at least 112 bps lower than firms in growth, maturity, and shake-out stages. Specifically, introduction and decline stage stocks exhibit less positive reactions to positive earnings surprises and more negative reactions to negative earnings surprises relative to companies in other life cycle stages. Lottery stocks' excess returns around earnings announcements (Liu et al. in Journal of Financial Economics 138: 789–817, 2020) also vary based on firm life cycle stage. Our findings suggest that individual investors' optimistic expectations for introduction and decline stage stocks are met with disappointment when value-relevant earnings news is released. This study demonstrates that firm life cycle stage has real implications for stock price reactions to earnings announcements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the analysis of the basic legislation that regulates the spheres of gambling and lotteries, the identification of problems and gaps in the legal regulation of this sphere, which affect the process of proving criminal offenses provided for in Art. 203-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine and the formation of scientific proposals on ways to solve these problems. The authors draw attention to the fact that the gambling business has always been and will remain a high-risk type of activity characterized by a high level of the shadow sphere, and a number of unsolved problems of legal regulation today help illegal businesses evade criminal responsibility for carrying out illegal activities, because these problems do not allow pre-trial investigation bodies to establish the event of a criminal offense, which is the central element of the subject of proof, primarily during the qualification of such actions as: issuing or conducting lotteries by a person who does not have the status of a lottery operator; the organization or functioning of institutions for the purpose of providing access to gambling games or lotteries conducted on the Internet. As a result, no more than 10% of criminal proceedings initiated under Art. 203-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine end with the court's sentencing. The authors admit that today restrictions or prohibitions in the activity of organizing and conducting gambling games do not hold lotteries, and for the activity and issuance and holding of lotteries, the prohibition of conducting gambling games does not allow to make an unambiguous conclusion, a lottery or a gambling game is conducted based only on visual signs. Therefore, the authors provide a set of features that allow us to distinguish between these types of activities. Also, the problems of special legislation that regulate the procedures for the implementation of these types of activities are clearly defined, and specific ways of solving these problems are proposed for the Parliament, the Government and KRAIL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Companies often rely on customer feedback to build and improve their business. Customers, in turn, are expected to (i) fill in customer feedback surveys (participation) and (ii) provide accurate responses (performance). To encourage active participation and ensure accurate responses, companies traditionally offer either self‐benefiting incentives, like lottery prizes, or prosocial incentives, like charity donations. More recently, some companies have started offering prosocial incentives on top of self‐benefiting incentives in the hope to "sweeten the deal," that is, to improve participation and performance even further. With this research, we challenge whether the on‐top prosocial incentives are effective. The evidence from two field experiments and one incentive‐aligned online experiment does not confirm any such advantage. In contrast, performance can decrease when a low‐amount on‐top prosocial incentive is offered relative to a pure self‐benefiting setting. This trend is only reversed once the on‐top incentive amount increases. Furthermore, for participation, we find that on‐top prosocial incentives are ineffective and, at higher amounts, even detrimental. Therefore, our empirical insights rather suggest that on‐top prosocial incentives "poison the well." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the so-called Press Freedom Period, 1770–1773, in Denmark-Norway, fierce and mostly anonymous criticism of the recently introduced number lottery emerged. This opposition went beyond mainstream patriotic discourse and produced narratives of players and lottery agents as socially irresponsible individuals. The article traces the initial development of a patriotic narrative concerning matters of morality, the deterioration of the labour force, and the perceived threats against the resilience of the state. We demonstrate how the focus of criticism – during the subsequent phase leading up to the closing of Press Freedom in October-November 1773 – shifted towards the practice of playing the lottery and the actors embodying this practice as victims or abettors of the operations of an ominous state-sanctioned enterprise. This rapid transformation of discourse was a unique feature of the Press Freedom Period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I focus on middle-class engagement with lotteries and numerical games of chance, to understand the symbolic boundary-making processes in the Turkish context. Based on 18 months of ethnographic research (2021--2022) with people who regularly participate in state-regulated games of chance in Istanbul, I argue that the middle class(es) have diversified subjectivities with elusive moral boundary-making and differentiated views on risk-taking that transcend the classic distinction between the old middle class and the new middle class. The uncertain socioeconomic situation has rendered my participants precariat and made them move beyond the illusionary boundaries of a perceived stability or 'in-betweenness' of the middle class. To mitigate future uncertainty, they engage in speculative ventures, such as games of chance and entrepreneurial pursuits and act beyond what has been considered safe, rational, or secure economic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this introduction to this special issue on economic anthropology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), I provide a short background on what economic anthropology is, its major debates since the 1950s, and its practice in the MENA region. I also summarise and bring together the articles that cover a range of different and emergent themes from social media in the belly dance industry through inflation and lotteries to startup cultures and mobile phones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We outline essential considerations for any study of partial randomisation of research funding, and consider scenarios in which randomised controlled trials (RCTs) would be feasible and appropriate. We highlight the interdependence of target outcomes, sample availability and statistical power for determining the cost and feasibility of a trial. For many choices of target outcome, RCTs may be less practical and more expensive than they at first appear (in large part due to issues pertaining to sample size and statistical power). As such, we briefly discuss alternatives to RCTs. It is worth noting that many of the considerations relevant to experiments on partial randomisation may also apply to other potential experiments on funding processes (as described in The Experimental Research Funder’s Handbook. RoRI, June 2022).

We compare two fixed-prize mechanisms for funding public goods, an all-pay auction and a lottery, where public good provision can only occur if the participants’ contributions equal or exceed the fixed-prize value. We show that the provisional nature of the fixed-prize means that efficiency and endowment conditions must both be satisfied to assure positive public good provision. Our main finding is that provisional fixed-prize lotteries can outperform provisional fixed-prize all-pay auctions in terms of public good provision when endowments are large relative to prize values. We test these predictions in a laboratory experiment where we vary the number of participants, the marginal per capita return (mpcr) on the public good, and the mechanism for awarding the prize, either a lottery or an all-pay auction. Consistent with the theory, we find that the mpcr matters for contribution amounts under the lottery mechanism. However, inconsistent with the theory, bids are significantly higher than predicted and there is no significant difference in the level of public good provision under either provisional, fixed-prize mechanism. We consider several different modifications to our framework that might help to explain these departures from theoretical predictions.

The article is devoted to the study of the object of the criminal law norm on illegal activities of organizing or conducting gambling games, lotteries, the results of which proved the correctness of the location of Art. 203-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine in Chapter VII entitled "Criminal offenses in the sphere of economic activity". The article analyzes the specifics of the definition of the main direct object of the criminal offense provided for in Art. 203-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, which in the third form of the objective side has a controversial interpretation, in particular, it is considered as social relations of morality. In the part related to this issue, the regulatory legislation was analyzed, namely the Law of Ukraine "On State Lotteries in Ukraine" dated 09/06/2012 No. 5204-VI and the Law of Ukraine "On State Regulation of Activities Regarding the Organization and Conduct of Gambling Games" dated 07/14/2020 No. 768-IX. It was established that the act is provided for in the third form of the current edition of Art. 203-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine covers the organization and operation of the institution with the aim of providing access to gambling and lotteries. Along with this, it was found that certain types of such activities, despite the criminal law prohibition, are allowed by the regulatory legislation, in particular it was proved that the organization and ensuring the functioning of the establishment with the aim of providing access to gambling games, lotteries should be considered non-equestrian and therefore prohibited only in the case when it concerns: - a physically existing establishment (Internet clubs or intern et cafes); - a virtual institution, the organization and functioning of which is carried out without the appropriate permission documents (license). Organizing or ensuring the functioning of a virtual establishment for the purpose of providing access to gambling games or lotteries conducted on the Internet in the presence of an appropriate license is not subject to a complete criminal law ban. This causes confusion in the definition of the object of this criminal offense, which is justified in the article to consider public relations in the sphere of economic activities related to the organization of gambling and lotteries In order to eliminate conflicts and inconsistencies between the current criminal and regulatory legislation, it is proposed to make changes to the current wording of Art. 203-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, in particular, in the third form of the objective party, the actions described in it are justified to be described at the legislative level by the concept of "illega l". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gacha games are the most dominant games on the mobile market. These are free-to-play games with a lottery-like system, where the user pays with in-game currency to enter a draw in order to obtain the character or item they want. If a player does not obtain what he hoped for, there is the option of paying with his own money for more draws, and this is the main way to monetize the Gacha game. The purpose of this study is to show the playing and spending habits of Gacha players: the reasons they like such games, the reasons for spending, how much they spend, what they spend on, how long they have been spending, and whether they are aware of their spending. The paper includes studies by other researchers on various aspects of Gacha games as well. The aim of the paper is to conduct a study with the hypothesis that players who play the same game for a while and have a habit of playing it are willing to give more of their money to enter a draw. Therefore, two research questions and two hypotheses were analyzed. A total of 713 participants took part in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the underground lottery game—an illegal albeit prevalent gambling activity in Vietnam—players bet on two- or three-digit numbers and win money if their numbers appear in the results of the official lotteries. The predominant Vietnamese perception of the game as a problem of the lower class reveals that the underclass is conceptualized as a group with several moral shortcomings that have led to its members’ underdevelopment. However, this study shows that the game is perceived by its players as a moral reward for their responsiveness to the spiritual world around them, and for their sensibility, experience and attentiveness to daily events and dreams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundEffective prevention-focused, value-based strategies are needed to improve oral health. Despite evidence that monetary incentives can motivate healthy behavior, well-powered studies have yet to examine incentives for improving children's oral hygiene.AimDescribe the rationale and design of the BEhavioral EConomics for Oral health iNnovation (BEECON) trial, which tests lottery-based monetary incentives as a consumer-oriented, value-based care model for improving children's oral hygiene.DesignPhase II, stratified, permuted block randomized, controlled, two-arm, parallel groups, prevention trial.SettingStudy visits occur at three Los Angeles, CA health clinics.ParticipantsTwo hundred and forty-four parent-child dyads with a child aged 6-48 months.InterventionsEligible dyads were randomized in equal allocation to one of two groups: lottery incentive group or waitlist (delayed incentive) control group. Weekly lottery incentives were offered for 6 months based on Bluetooth-recorded toothbrushing frequency. Both groups received weekly text message feedback on toothbrushing performance.OutcomesThe primary outcome was toothbrushing performance from baseline to 6 months, measured as the mean number of qualifying half-day Bluetooth-recorded episodes per week when the child's teeth were brushed. Secondary outcomes included toothbrushing performance sustainability through 12 months and dental caries status.ConclusionsBEECON offers a consumer-oriented approach to promoting value-based oral health care. We hypothesize that lottery-based incentives can improve oral hygiene in young children. Study results will inform programming efforts to enhance oral disease prevention in young children.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT03576326.

Abstract Background Smoking is the leading behavioral risk factor for the loss of healthy life years. Many smokers want to quit, but have trouble doing so. Financial incentives in workplace settings have shown promising results in supporting smokers and their design influences their impact. Lotteries that leverage behavioral economic insights might improve the effectiveness of workplace cessation support. Methods and design We examine in a cluster randomized trial if a workplace cessation group training paired with lottery deadlines will increase continuous abstinence rates over and above the cessation training alone. Organizations are randomized to either the control arm or lottery arm. The lotteries capitalize regret aversion by always informing winners at the deadline, but withholding prizes if they smoked. In the lottery-arm, winners are drawn out of all participants within a training group, regardless of their smoking status. In weeks 1-13 there are weekly lotteries. Winners are informed about their prize (€50), but can only claim it if they did not smoke that week, validated biochemically. After 26 weeks, there is a long-term lottery where the winners are informed about their prize (vacation voucher worth €400), but can only claim it if they were abstinent between weeks 13 and 26. The primary outcome is continuous abstinence 52 weeks after the quit date. Discussion There is a quest for incentives to support smoking cessation that are considered fair, affordable and effective across different socioeconomic groups. Previous use of behavioral economics in the design of lotteries have shown promising results in changing health behavior. This cluster randomized trial aims to demonstrate if these lotteries are also effective for supporting smoking cessation. Therefore the study design and protocol are described in detail in this paper. Findings might contribute to the application and development of effective cessation support at the workplace. Trial registration Netherlands Trial Register Identifier: NL8463 . Date of registration: 17-03-2020.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have explored how economic incentives influence behavioral outcomes. This study aimed to identify pathways of action of an incentives-based intervention to increase mens participation in HIV testing. METHODS: The qualitative study was embedded in a randomized-controlled trial that compared effectiveness of gain-framed, loss-framed and lottery-based incentives to increase HIV testing among men. Following testing at a community health campaign, 60 in-depth interviews were conducted with men systematically sampled on the basis of age, incentive group, and campaign attendance. Data were coded deductively and inductively for thematic content analysis. RESULTS: Incentives addressed mens structural, interpersonal and individual-level barriers to testing: offered at convenient locations, incentives offset costs of testing, in lost wages, which are exacerbated when livelihoods required mobility. Interpersonal barriers included anticipated stigma/fear of disclosure, social obligations, and negative peer influences. Providing incentives in public settings provided social proof that prizes could be won, and facilitated social support and positive norms by promoting testing with trusted others. Incentives had little influence when men appraised prize values to be low, disbelieved they would win a prize, or were already intrinsically motivated to test. Yet, incentives provided a behavioral cue to action for many men who perceived themselves to be susceptible to HIV and perceived HIV disease to be severe, acting as secondary motivator for testing that sweetened the deal. CONCLUSION: Incentives can be an important lever to promote mens healthy behaviors in resource-poor settings. HIV testing in convenient, public settings, when paired with incentives, provides multiple pathways to stimulate mens testing uptake. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered with ClinicalTrials.gov on 08/10/2016, ID: NCT02890459. The first participant was enrolled on 11th April 2016.

We study the effect of lottery wins on the strength of social ties and its different types, including support networks, in the United Kingdom. On average, we find that winning more in the lottery increases the probability of meeting friends on most days, which is consistent with the complementary effect of income on the strength of social ties. The opposite is true with regards to social ties held for more instrumental reasons such as talking to neighbours. Winning more in the lottery also lessens an individual support network consistently with a substitution of income and support network. However, further robustness checks reveal that such average lottery effects are driven by individuals exhibiting very large wins only, thus suggesting that small to medium-sized wins (below £10k) may not be enough to change people's social ties and support network in a substantial way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that offering entry into a lottery as an incentive to those who participate in research studies represents a challenge to the principle of informed, coercion‐free consent that is considered an essential ingredient of permissible recruitment to studies. This is, first, because information about the chances of winning in this context is normally unavailable to potential participants and, without this, they cannot accurately weigh up the risks and potential benefits of participation. Second, even when this information is available, such an incentive capitalizes, I contend, on the difficulty of weighing up small probabilities, exploiting the fact that people tend to be beset by cognitive biases that make it challenging to make decisions rationally. The resulting conclusion is that we should not view lotteries as more ethical than simply paying participants, when the latter is feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the safety principle, if one knows that p, one's belief that p could not easily have been false. One problem besetting this principle is the lottery problem – that of explaining why one does not seem to know that one will lose the lottery purely based on probabilistic considerations, prior to the announcement of the lottery result. As Greco points out, it is difficult for a safety theorist to solve this problem, without paying a heavy price. In this paper, I first reject three existing safety-based solutions to the lottery problem, due to Pritchard, Sosa, and Broncano-Berrocal. Failure of these accounts reveals that there is something crucial missing in the safety principle. By way of remedying this, I propose to integrate a safety principle with a condition regarding one's own awareness of (nearby) error-possibilities. The resulting account, as I argue, enjoys a number of theoretical advantages, including its capacity to handle the lottery problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We outline essential considerations for any study of partial randomisation of research funding, and consider scenarios in which randomised controlled trials (RCTs) would be feasible and appropriate. We highlight the interdependence of target outcomes, sample availability and statistical power for determining the cost and feasibility of a trial. For many choices of target outcome, RCTs may be less practical and more expensive than they at first appear (in large part due to issues pertaining to sample size and statistical power). As such, we briefly discuss alternatives to RCTs. It is worth noting that many of the considerations relevant to experiments on partial randomisation may also apply to other potential experiments on funding processes (as described in The Experimental Research Funder’s Handbook. RoRI, June 2022).

Today, one of the most important issues in banks is the right of the winners of the lottery, about which there are two promises among jurists: the adequacy and inadequacy of the lottery in the necessity of the right of possession. The famous saying in this matter seeks to prove and confirm that there is an incomplete lottery and discovery and revelation. Bank lottery is from instence of ownership right or a rule that states, someone is owner of something (قاعده ملک ان یملک) and according to this rule, lottery doesn't cause a person be owner of something and it needs the other factors. The result of the conflict will be the time of ownership and consequently the ownership of benefits and appearance and added value. This research has studied explanation of lot and its kinds and then winner situation and theory of the something that belongs to someone (ملک ان یملک) .It seems efficiency of lottery obtained just as a determination and and occasion that ownership of winner and it's legal effects after delivering reward and formal transition of actualized ownership.

We test and quantify the (in)stability of farmer risk preferences, accounting for both the instability across elicitation methods and instability over time. We use repeated measurements (N = 1530) with Swiss fruit and grapevine producers over 3 years, using different risk preference elicitation methods (domain‐specific self‐assessment and incentivised lotteries). We find that farmers' risk preferences change considerably when measured using different methods. For example, self‐reported risk preference and findings from a Holt and Laury lottery correlate only weakly (correlation coefficients range from 0.06 to 0.23). Moreover, we also find that risk preferences vary considerably over time, that is, applying the same elicitation method to the same farmer in a different point in time results in different risk preference estimates. Our results show self‐reported risk preferences are moderately correlated (correlation coefficients range from 0.42 to 0.55) from one year to another. Finally, we find experiencing crop damages due to climate extremes and pests is associated with farmers becoming more risk tolerant over time in specific domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Smoking is the leading behavioral risk factor for the loss of healthy life years. Many smokers want to quit, but have trouble doing so. Financial incentives in workplace settings have shown promising results in supporting smokers and their design influences their impact. Lotteries that leverage behavioral economic insights might improve the effectiveness of workplace cessation support. Methods and design: We examine in a cluster randomized trial if a workplace cessation group training paired with lottery deadlines will increase continuous abstinence rates over and above the cessation training alone. Organizations are randomized to either the control arm or lottery arm. The lotteries capitalize regret aversion by always informing winners at the deadline, but withholding prizes if they smoked. In the lottery-arm, winners are drawn out of all participants within a training group, regardless of their smoking status. In weeks 1-13 there are weekly lotteries. Winners are informed about their prize (€50), but can only claim it if they did not smoke that week, validated biochemically. After 26 weeks, there is a long-term lottery where the winners are informed about their prize (vacation voucher worth €400), but can only claim it if they were abstinent between weeks 13 and 26. The primary outcome is continuous abstinence 52 weeks after the quit date. Discussion: There is a quest for incentives to support smoking cessation that are considered fair, affordable and effective across different socioeconomic groups. Previous use of behavioral economics in the design of lotteries have shown promising results in changing health behavior. This cluster randomized trial aims to demonstrate if these lotteries are also effective for supporting smoking cessation. Therefore the study design and protocol are described in detail in this paper. Findings might contribute to the application and development of effective cessation support at the workplace. Trial registration: Netherlands Trial Register Identifier: NL8463. Date of registration: 17-03-2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers have found evidence of both hot hand and gambler's fallacy biases in lottery number selection. Which of the two opposite effects is observed is often dependent upon the nature of the lottery game, the particular sample, the local culture of the participants, or the time transpired since the seed event. By observing hundreds of millions of lottery entries over 118 consecutive semiweekly drawings, we present evidence of both effects and their longitudinal properties. With respect to the selection of individual numbers, lottery participants tend to avoid recently selected winning numbers. This gambler's fallacy effect diminishes and the number becomes increasingly 'hot' until it is selected again. With respect to winning number combinations, we found strong evidence of a small but persistent hot hand bias. This bias gradually diminishes over time, but remains detectable and highly consistent for a number of years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In May 2021, U.S. states began implementing "vaccination lotteries" encouraging COVID-19 vaccination. Drawing from Prospect Theory and math cognition research, we tested several monetary lottery structures and their framing to determine which would best motivate unvaccinated adults. Method: In two online experiments, U.S. adults were asked to imagine that their state implemented a vaccination lottery. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 589) were randomly assigned to 1 of 12 conditions varying the monetary amount and number of winners, holding constant a $5 million total payout. In Experiment 2, participants (N = 274) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions in a 2 (Message Framing: Gain versus Loss) by 2 (Numeric Framing: Big versus Small) factorial design; in all conditions, five people would each win $1 million. Participants rated their baseline vaccination willingness (1 = not at all to 4 = very) and postmanipulation COVID-19 vaccination intentions "if their state offered this incentive" (0 = definitely would not to 100 = definitely would). Results: Intentions did not differ across conditions (Experiment 1: F[11, 561] = 1.29, p = .224, ηp² = .03; Experiment 2: Message Framing, F[1, 266)] = .01, p = .940, ηp² = .000; Numeric Framing, F[1, 266] = 1.40, p = .237, ηp² = .01; Interaction, F[1, 266] = 1.40, p = .238, ηp² = .01). When participants were shown a list of 12 lottery structures and asked which they preferred, participants on average preferred options that awarded less money to more people. However, 41.9% of participants across both experiments indicated they would not vaccinate for any lottery-based monetary incentive. Conclusions: Multiple lottery structures could be equally (un)motivating for unvaccinated adults. Structures that distribute incentives across more people or alternative public health strategies should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensitivity account of knowledge states that if one knows that p (via method M), then were p false, one would not believe that p via M. This account has been highly controversial. However, even its critics tend to agree that the account enjoys an important advantage of solving the Gettier problem—that is, it explains why Gettierized beliefs are not knowledge. In this paper, I argue that this purported advantage of sensitivity is merely illusory. The account cannot, in principle, solve the Gettier problem. Moreover, another formulation of sensitivity—which is fully in line with Nozick's original account—is not unscathed either. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers have found evidence of both hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases in lottery number selection. Which of the two opposite effects is observed is often dependent upon the nature of the lottery game, the particular sample, the local culture of the participants, or the time transpired since the seed event. By observing hundreds of millions of lottery entries over 118 consecutive semiweekly drawings, we present evidence of both effects and their longitudinal properties. With respect to the selection of individual numbers, lottery participants tend to avoid recently selected winning numbers. This gambler’s fallacy effect diminishes and the number becomes increasingly ‘hot’ until it is selected again. With respect to winning number combinations, we found strong evidence of a small but persistent hot hand bias. This bias gradually diminishes over time, but remains detectable and highly consistent for a number of years.

Superstitious belief has been explained as a driving force in initiating and maintaining gambling behaviour. However, most studies on this subject only examine the variations of superstitious beliefs in a Western gambling context, with limited understanding of the impact superstition has on gambling initiation. By focusing on lottery gambling, this exploratory research attempts to examine what impact superstitious belief has on the lottery gambling behavioural process among Thai consumers. This research utilised semi-structured depth interviews to collect data and thematic coding to analyse the narrative transcripts. The findings contribute to the body of literature on lottery gambling by providing the conceptual framework depicting that superstitious beliefs play a major role in every stage of the lottery gambling process (from the pre-purchase to post-purchase stages) and these beliefs can increase the likelihood of taking up gambling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the outcomes of an online coin-tossing experiment evaluating cheating behavior among Ukrainian students. Over 1,500 participants were asked to make ten coin tosses and were randomly assigned to one of the three treatment groups tossing coins (1) online, (2) manually, or (3) having the choice between tossing manually or online. The study outcomes suggest that students are more inclined to cheat when they perceive the coin toss to be more "private." Moreover, the students' attitudes toward corruption appear to matter for the extent of their cheating, while socio-demographic characteristics were less important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A local analysis of a chance system recovers the properties of the totality by accumulating the chance properties of its components. A global analysis considers only the properties of the chance system taken as a whole. It can sometimes provide an easier demonstration of the fitness for purpose of chance systems. Such is the case for the operators of lotteries and for bookmakers at a racetrack. Physical randomizers akin to dice were used extensively in antiquity for gambling, drawing lots and in divination. There is no ancient account of the fitness of these randomizers for these purposes and no ancient theory of the individual chances of outcomes. A global analysis can establish their fitness for purpose. If the rules of gambling and lot drawing are such that everyone has an equal opportunity, they are fair, independently of the individual, local chances. The randomizers are fit for the purposes of divination in so far as it is believed that the oracle has no control on the outcomes of the randomizers. In asking why some earlier culture did not discover probability theory, we presume incorrectly an inevitability to probability theory. The better question is why any culture found the theory at all. • Global analysis of chance systems proceeds independently of the chances of individual outcomes. • It is used by lottery operators and bookmakers. • Before probability theory, it established the fitness of randomizers for gambling and lot drawing. • Physical randomizers are by design irregular in their behavior. • One probabilistic theory covering all physical randomizers is extraordinary and not inevitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using primary survey data of onion growers in India, this study tests the relationship between and predictability of risk attitude measures on farmers' risk management decisions. We find that farmers with high risk aversion are more likely to adopt farm diversification strategies, good agricultural practices, government-recommended seed varieties, and preventive measures against diseases and pests than farmers with low risk aversion. The likelihood of farmers adopting good agricultural practices decreases with perceived higher risks of low-quality production, a higher risk of losing crops due to weather, and insects and pests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Purpose: A large number of COVID-19 infections and deaths and the ensuing socioeconomic problems created widespread public fear around COVID-19. Fear around COVID-19 greatly influences people's attitudes towards receiving the COVID-19 vaccines. The purpose of this study is examining (a) the impact of the public fear of COVID-19 (PFC) on the number of COVID-19 vaccinations at the county level; (b) the interaction effect between the PFC and per capita income, unemployment rates, and COVID-19 vaccines incentive policies, on the number of COVID-19 vaccinations at the county level. Method: This is a longitudinal analysis across states in the U.S. by using county-level data of 2856 counties from 1 February to 1 July. Random-effects models were adopted to analyze the associations between the PFC and the number of COVID-19 vaccinations. Result: the PFC was positively associated with the number of COVID-19 vaccinations at county-level, as PFC increases from 0 to 300, the predicted vaccination number increases from 10,000 to 230,000. However, the associations were divergent when the PFC interacts with county-level per capita income, unemployment rates, and incentive policies. Conclusion: public fear is an important indicator for the county-level vaccination numbers of COVID-19. However, it is critical to consider public fear and socioeconomic factors when making policies that aim to increase COVID-19 vaccination rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses restricted-version data from the 2018 state-by-state survey of the National Financial Capability Study to investigate the relationship between financial literacy and lottery consumption frequency. To control for the potential endogeneity of financial literacy, I employ the ordered probit model with an endogenous regressor by instrumenting the average education level of a zip-code area for financial literacy. The results indicate that an increase in financial literacy significantly reduces the lottery consumption of those who play with moderate frequency, while no marked curbing effects are found for heavy lottery players. This suggests that different policies are needed to reduce lottery consumption for those who engage with moderate frequency and those who engage with high frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]