Sonsoles Salto-Alejandre, Judith Berastegui-Cabrera, Pedro Camacho-Martínez, Carmen Infante-Domínguez, Marta Carretero-Ledesma, Juan Carlos Crespo-Rivas, Eduardo Márquez, José Manuel Lomas, Claudio Bueno, Rosario Amaya, José Antonio Lepe, José Miguel Cisneros, Jerónimo Pachón, Elisa Cordero, Javier Sánchez-Céspedes, The Virgen del Rocío Hospital COVID-19 Working Team, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Junta de Andalucía, Salto-Alejandre, Sonsoles, Camacho-Martínez, Pedro, Sánchez-Céspedes, Javier, Salto-Alejandre, Sonsoles [0000-0002-1280-4810], Camacho-Martínez, Pedro [0000-0002-6331-4600], Sánchez-Céspedes, Javier [0000-0003-2707-1979], The Virgen del Rocío Hospital COVID-19 Working Team, [Salto-Alejandre,S, Berastegui-Cabrera,J, Camacho-Martínez,P, Infante-Domínguez,C, Carretero-Ledesma,M, Crespo-Rivas,JC, Lomas,JM, Lepe,JA, Cisneros,JM, Cordero,E, Sánchez-Céspedes,J] Unit of Infectious Diseases, Microbiology, and Preventive Medicine, Virgen del Rocío University Hospital, Seville, Spain. [Salto-Alejandre,S, Pachón,J, Sánchez-Céspedes,J] Institute of Biomedicine of Seville (IBiS), Virgen del Rocío University Hospital/CSIC/University of Seville, Seville, Spain. [Márquez,E] Medico Surgical Unit of Respiratory Diseases, Virgen del Rocío University Hospital, Seville, Spain. [Bueno,C] Unit of Emergencies, Virgen del Rocío University Hospital, Seville, Spain. [Amaya,R] Intensive Care Unit, Virgen del Rocío University Hospital, Seville, Spain. [Pachón,J, Cordero,E] Department of Medicine, University of Seville, Seville, Spain., Tis work was supported by National Plan R+D+I 2013–2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa, Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness, Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases [REIPI RD16/0016/0009], cofnanced by European Develop ment Regional Fund 'A way to achieve Europe', Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014–2020, and supported by Grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Proyectos de Investigación sobre el SARS-CoV-2 y la enfermedad COVID-19 [COV20/00370, and COV20/00580]. J.S.C. is a researcher belong ing to the program 'Nicolás Monardes' (C-0059-2018), Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Junta de Andalucía, Spain.
The aim was to assess the ability of nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load at first patient’s hospital evaluation to predict unfavorable outcomes. We conducted a prospective cohort study including 321 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 through RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs. Quantitative Synthetic SARS-CoV-2 RNA cycle threshold values were used to calculate the viral load in log10 copies/mL. Disease severity at the end of follow up was categorized into mild, moderate, and severe. Primary endpoint was a composite of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death (n = 85, 26.4%). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load over the second quartile (≥ 7.35 log10 copies/mL, p = 0.003) and second tertile (≥ 8.27 log10 copies/mL, p = 0.01) were associated to unfavorable outcome in the unadjusted logistic regression analysis. However, in the final multivariable analysis, viral load was not independently associated with an unfavorable outcome. Five predictors were independently associated with increased odds of ICU admission and/or death: age ≥ 70 years, SpO2, neutrophils > 7.5 × 103/µL, lactate dehydrogenase ≥ 300 U/L, and C-reactive protein ≥ 100 mg/L. In summary, nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load on admission is generally high in patients with COVID-19, regardless of illness severity, but it cannot be used as an independent predictor of unfavorable clinical outcome., This work was supported by National Plan R+D+I 2013–2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa, Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness, Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases [REIPI RD16/0016/0009]; cofinanced by European Development Regional Fund “A way to achieve Europe”, Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014–2020; and supported by Grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Proyectos de Investigación sobre el SARS-CoV-2 y la enfermedad COVID-19 [COV20/00370; COV20/00580]. J.S.C. is a researcher belonging to the program “Nicolás Monardes” (C-0059-2018), Servicio Andaluz de Salud, Junta de Andalucía, Spain.