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Genome sequence data are no longer scarce. The UK Biobank alone comprises 200,000 individual genomes, with more on the way, leading the field of human genetics toward sequencing entire populations. Within the next decades, other model organisms will follow suit, especially domesticated species such as crops and livestock. Having sequences from most individuals in a population will present new challenges for using these data to improve health and agriculture in the pursuit of a sustainable future. Existing population genetic methods are designed to model hundreds of randomly sampled sequences but are not optimized for extracting the information contained in the larger and richer data sets that are beginning to emerge, with thousands of closely related individuals. Here we develop a new method called trio-based inference of dominance and selection (TIDES) that uses data from tens of thousands of family trios to make inferences about natural selection acting in a single generation. TIDES further improves on the state of the art by making no assumptions regarding demography, linkage, or dominance. We discuss how our method paves the way for studying natural selection from new angles.

Island ecosystems provide natural laboratories to assess the impacts of isolation on population persistence. However, most studies of persistence have focused on a single species, without comparisons to other organisms they interact with in the ecosystem. The case study of moose and gray wolves on Isle Royale allows for a direct contrast of genetic variation in isolated populations that have experienced dramatically differing population trajectories over the past decade. Whereas the Isle Royale wolf population recently declined nearly to extinction due to severe inbreeding depression, the moose population has thrived and continues to persist, despite having low genetic diversity and being isolated for ∼120 years. Here, we examine the patterns of genomic variation underlying the continued persistence of the Isle Royale moose population. We document high levels of inbreeding in the population, roughly as high as the wolf population at the time of its decline. However, inbreeding in the moose population manifests in the form of intermediate-length runs of homozygosity suggestive of historical inbreeding and purging, contrasting with the long runs of homozygosity observed in the smaller wolf population. Using simulations, we confirm that substantial purging has likely occurred in the moose population. However, we also document notable increases in genetic load, which could eventually threaten population viability over the long term. Overall, our results demonstrate a complex relationship between inbreeding, genetic diversity, and population viability that highlights the use of genomic datasets and computational simulation tools for understanding the factors enabling persistence in isolated populations.

Deleterious mutations decrease reproductive fitness and are ubiquitous in genomes. Given that many organisms face ongoing threats of extinction, there is interest in elucidating the impact of deleterious variation on extinction risk and optimizing management strategies accounting for such mutations. Quantifying deleterious variation and understanding the effects of population history on deleterious variation are complex endeavors because we do not know the strength of selection acting on each mutation. Further, the effect of demographic history on deleterious mutations depends on the strength of selection against the mutation and the degree of dominance. Here we clarify how deleterious variation can be quantified and studied in natural populations. We then discuss how different demographic factors, such as small population size, nonequilibrium population size changes, inbreeding, and gene flow, affect deleterious variation. Lastly, we provide guidance on studying deleterious variation in nonmodel populations of conservation concern.

In cases of severe wildlife population decline, a key question is whether recovery efforts will be impeded by genetic factors, such as inbreeding depression. Decades of excess mortality from gillnet fishing have driven Mexico's vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus) to ~10 remaining individuals. We analyzed whole-genome sequences from 20 vaquitas and integrated genomic and demographic information into stochastic, individual-based simulations to quantify the species' recovery potential. Our analysis suggests that the vaquita's historical rarity has resulted in a low burden of segregating deleterious variation, reducing the risk of inbreeding depression. Similarly, genome-informed simulations suggest that the vaquita can recover if bycatch mortality is immediately halted. This study provides hope for vaquitas and other naturally rare endangered species and highlights the utility of genomics in predicting extinction risk.

The genus Quercus, which emerged ∼55 million years ago during globally warm temperatures, diversified into ∼450 extant species. We present a high-quality de novo genome assembly of a California endemic oak, Quercus lobata, revealing features consistent with oak evolutionary success. Effective population size remained large throughout history despite declining since early Miocene. Analysis of 39,373 mapped protein-coding genes outlined copious duplications consistent with genetic and phenotypic diversity, both by retention of genes created during the ancient γ whole genome hexaploid duplication event and by tandem duplication within families, including numerous resistance genes and a very large block of duplicated DUF247 genes, which have been found to be associated with self-incompatibility in grasses. An additional surprising finding is that subcontext-specific patterns of DNA methylation associated with transposable elements reveal broadly-distributed heterochromatin in intergenic regions, similar to grasses. Collectively, these features promote genetic and phenotypic variation that would facilitate adaptability to changing environments.

Domestic dogs have experienced population bottlenecks, recent inbreeding, and strong artificial selection. These processes have simplified the genetic architecture of complex traits, allowed deleterious variation to persist, and increased both identity-by-descent (IBD) segments and runs of homozygosity (ROH). As such, dogs provide an excellent model for examining how these evolutionary processes influence disease. We assembled a dataset containing 4,414 breed dogs, 327 village dogs, and 380 wolves genotyped at 117,288 markers and data for clinical and morphological phenotypes. Breed dogs have an enrichment of IBD and ROH, relative to both village dogs and wolves, and we use these patterns to show that breed dogs have experienced differing severities of bottlenecks in their recent past. We then found that ROH burden is associated with phenotypes in breed dogs, such as lymphoma. We next test the prediction that breeds with greater ROH have more disease alleles reported in the Online Mendelian Inheritance in Animals (OMIA). Surprisingly, the number of causal variants identified correlates with the popularity of that breed rather than the ROH or IBD burden, suggesting an ascertainment bias in OMIA. Lastly, we use the distribution of ROH across the genome to identify genes with depletions of ROH as potential hotspots for inbreeding depression and find multiple exons where ROH are never observed. Our results suggest that inbreeding has played a large role in shaping genetic and phenotypic variation in dogs and that future work on understudied breeds may reveal new disease-causing variation.

Phenotype prediction is a key goal for medical genetics. Unfortunately, most genome-wide association studies are done in European populations, which reduces the accuracy of predictions via polygenic scores in non-European populations. Here, we use population genetic models to show that human demographic history and negative selection on complex traits can result in population-specific genetic architectures. For traits where alleles with the largest effect on the trait are under the strongest negative selection, approximately half of the heritability can be accounted for by variants in Europe that are absent from Africa, leading to poor performance in phenotype prediction across these populations. Further, under such a model, individuals in the tails of the genetic risk distribution may not be identified via polygenic scores generated in another population. We empirically test these predictions by building a model to stratify heritability between European-specific and shared variants and applied it to 37 traits and diseases in the UK Biobank. Across these phenotypes, ∼30% of the heritability comes from European-specific variants. We conclude that genetic association studies need to include more diverse populations to enable the utility of phenotype prediction in all populations.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is an early-onset developmental disorder characterized by deficits in communication and social interaction and restrictive or repetitive behaviours1,2. Family studies demonstrate that ASD has a substantial genetic basis with contributions both from inherited and de novo variants3,4. It has been estimated that de novo mutations may contribute to 30% of all simplex cases, in which only a single child is affected per family5. Tandem repeats (TRs), defined here as sequences of 1 to 20 base pairs in size repeated consecutively, comprise one of the major sources of de novo mutations in humans6. TR expansions are implicated in dozens of neurological and psychiatric disorders7. Yet, de novo TR mutations have not been characterized on a genome-wide scale, and their contribution to ASD remains unexplored. Here we develop new bioinformatics methods for identifying and prioritizing de novo TR mutations from sequencing data and perform a genome-wide characterization of de novo TR mutations in ASD-affected probands and unaffected siblings. We infer specific mutation events and their precise changes in repeat number, and primarily focus on more prevalent stepwise copy number changes rather than large expansions. Our results demonstrate a significant genome-wide excess of TR mutations in ASD probands. Mutations in probands tend to be larger, enriched in fetal brain regulatory regions, and are predicted to be more evolutionarily deleterious. Overall, our results highlight the importance of considering repeat variants in future studies of de novo mutations.

Quantifying and comparing the amount of adaptive evolution among different species is key to understanding how evolution works. Previous studies have shown differences in adaptive evolution across species; however, their specific causes remain elusive. Here, we use improved modeling of weakly deleterious mutations and the demographic history of the outgroup species and ancestral population and estimate that at least 20% of nonsynonymous substitutions between humans and an outgroup species were fixed by positive selection. This estimate is much higher than previous estimates, which did not correct for the sizes of the outgroup species and ancestral population. Next, we jointly estimate the proportion and selection coefficient (p + and s +, respectively) of newly arising beneficial nonsynonymous mutations in humans, mice, and Drosophila melanogaster by examining patterns of polymorphism and divergence. We develop a novel composite likelihood framework to test whether these parameters differ across species. Overall, we reject a model with the same p + and s + of beneficial mutations across species and estimate that humans have a higher p+s + compared with that of D. melanogaster and mice. We show that this result cannot be caused by biased gene conversion or hypermutable CpG sites. We discuss possible biological explanations that could generate the observed differences in the amount of adaptive evolution across species.

Annotations of evolutionary sequence constraint based on multi-species genome alignments and genome-wide maps of epigenomic marks and transcription factor binding provide important complementary information for understanding the human genome and genetic variation. Here we developed the Constrained Non-Exonic Predictor (CNEP) to quantify the evidence of each base in the genome being in an evolutionarily constrained non-exonic element from an input of over 60,000 epigenomic and transcription factor binding features. We find that the CNEP score outperforms baseline and related existing scores at predicting evolutionarily constrained non-exonic bases from such data. However, a subset of them are still not well predicted by CNEP. We developed a complementary Conservation Signature Score by CNEP (CSS-CNEP) that is predictive of those bases. We further characterize the nature of constrained non-exonic bases with low CNEP scores using additional types of information. CNEP and CSS-CNEP are resources for analyzing constrained non-exonic bases in the genome.

The observation that small isolated populations often suffer reduced fitness from inbreeding depression has guided conservation theory and practice for decades. However, investigating the genome-wide dynamics associated with inbreeding depression in natural populations is only now feasible with relatively inexpensive sequencing technology and annotated reference genomes. To characterize the genome-wide effects of intense inbreeding and isolation, we performed whole-genome sequencing and morphological analysis of an iconic inbred population, the gray wolves (Canis lupus) of Isle Royale. Through population genetic simulations and comparison with wolf genomes from a variety of demographic histories, we find evidence that severe inbreeding depression in this population is due to increased homozygosity of strongly deleterious recessive mutations. Our results have particular relevance in light of the recent translocation of wolves from the mainland to Isle Royale, as well as broader implications for management of genetic variation in the fragmented landscape of the modern world.

Pyrenestes finches are unique among birds in showing a non-sex-determined polymorphism in bill size and are considered a textbook example of disruptive selection. Morphs breed randomly with respect to bill size, and differ in diet and feeding performance relative to seed hardness. Previous breeding experiments are consistent with the polymorphism being controlled by a single genetic factor. Here, we use genome-wide pooled sequencing to explore the underlying genetic basis of bill morphology and identify a single candidate region. Targeted resequencing reveals extensive linkage disequilibrium across a 300 Kb region containing the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) gene, with a single 5-million-year-old haplotype associating with phenotypic dominance of the large-billed morph. We find no genetic similarities controlling bill size in the well-studied Darwin's finches (Geospiza). Our results show how a single genetic factor may control bill size and provide a foundation for future studies to examine this phenomenon within and among avian species.

Most population isolates examined to date were founded from a single ancestral population. Consequently, there is limited knowledge about the demographic history of admixed population isolates. Here we investigate genomic diversity of recently admixed population isolates from Costa Rica and Colombia and compare their diversity to a benchmark population isolate, the Finnish. These Latin American isolates originated during the 16th century from admixture between a few hundred European males and Amerindian females, with a limited contribution from African founders. We examine whole-genome sequence data from 449 individuals, ascertained as families to build mutigenerational pedigrees, with a mean sequencing depth of coverage of approximately 36×. We find that Latin American isolates have increased genetic diversity relative to the Finnish. However, there is an increase in the amount of identity by descent (IBD) segments in the Latin American isolates relative to the Finnish. The increase in IBD segments is likely a consequence of a very recent and severe population bottleneck during the founding of the admixed population isolates. Furthermore, the proportion of the genome that falls within a long run of homozygosity (ROH) in Costa Rican and Colombian individuals is significantly greater than that in the Finnish, suggesting more recent consanguinity in the Latin American isolates relative to that seen in the Finnish. Lastly, we find that recent consanguinity increased the number of deleterious variants found in the homozygous state, which is relevant if deleterious variants are recessive. Our study suggests that there is no single genetic signature of a population isolate.

The recovery and persistence of rare and endangered species are often threatened by genetic factors, such as the accumulation of deleterious mutations, loss of adaptive potential, and inbreeding depression [1]. Island foxes (Urocyon littoralis), the dwarfed descendants of mainland gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), have inhabited California's Channel Islands for >9,000 years [2-4]. Previous genomic analyses revealed that island foxes have exceptionally low levels of diversity and elevated levels of putatively deleterious variation [5]. Nonetheless, all six populations have persisted for thousands of generations, and several populations rebounded rapidly after recent severe bottlenecks [6, 7]. Here, we combine morphological and genomic data with population-genetic simulations to determine the mechanism underlying the enigmatic persistence of these foxes. First, through analysis of genomes from 1929 to 2009, we show that island foxes have remained at small population sizes with low diversity for many generations. Second, we present morphological data indicating an absence of inbreeding depression in island foxes, confirming that they are not afflicted with congenital defects common to other small and inbred populations. Lastly, our population-genetic simulations suggest that long-term small population size results in a reduced burden of strongly deleterious recessive alleles, providing a mechanism for the absence of inbreeding depression in island foxes. Importantly, the island fox illustrates a scenario in which genetic restoration through human-assisted gene flow could be a counterproductive or even harmful conservation strategy. Our study sheds light on the puzzle of island fox persistence, a unique success story that provides a model for the preservation of small populations.

AbstractThe observation that small, isolated populations often suffer reduced fitness as a result of inbreeding depression has guided conservation theory and practice for decades. However, investigating the genome-wide dynamics associated with inbreeding depression in natural populations is only now feasible with relatively inexpensive sequencing technology and annotated reference genomes. To characterize the genome-wide effects of intense inbreeding and isolation, we sequenced complete genomes from an iconic inbred population, the gray wolves (Canis lupus) of Isle Royale. Through comparison with other wolf genomes from a variety of demographic histories, we found that Isle Royale wolf genomes contain extensive runs of homozygosity, but neither the overall level of heterozygosity nor the number of deleterious variants per genome were reliable predictors of inbreeding depression. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that severe inbreeding depression results from increased homozygosity of strongly deleterious recessive mutations, which are more prevalent in historically large source populations. Our results have particular relevance in light of the recently proposed reintroduction of wolves to Isle Royale, as well as broader implications for management of genetic variation in the fragmented landscape of the modern world.

Dominance is a fundamental concept in molecular genetics and has implications for understanding patterns of genetic variation, evolution, and complex traits. However, despite its importance, the degree of dominance in natural populations is poorly quantified. Here, we leverage multiple mating systems in natural populations of Arabidopsis to co-estimate the distribution of fitness effects and dominance coefficients of new amino acid changing mutations. We find that more deleterious mutations are more likely to be recessive than less deleterious mutations. Further, this pattern holds across gene categories, but varies with the connectivity and expression patterns of genes. Our work argues that dominance arises as a consequence of the functional importance of genes and their optimal expression levels.

Inference of demographic history from genetic data is a primary goal of population genetics of model and nonmodel organisms. Whole genome-based approaches such as the pairwise/multiple sequentially Markovian coalescent methods use genomic data from one to four individuals to infer the demographic history of an entire population, while site frequency spectrum (SFS)-based methods use the distribution of allele frequencies in a sample to reconstruct the same historical events. Although both methods are extensively used in empirical studies and perform well on data simulated under simple models, there have been only limited comparisons of them in more complex and realistic settings. Here we use published demographic models based on data from three human populations (Yoruba, descendants of northwest-Europeans, and Han Chinese) as an empirical test case to study the behavior of both inference procedures. We find that several of the demographic histories inferred by the whole genome-based methods do not predict the genome-wide distribution of heterozygosity, nor do they predict the empirical SFS. However, using simulated data, we also find that the whole genome methods can reconstruct the complex demographic models inferred by SFS-based methods, suggesting that the discordant patterns of genetic variation are not attributable to a lack of statistical power, but may reflect unmodeled complexities in the underlying demography. More generally, our findings indicate that demographic inference from a small number of genomes, routine in genomic studies of nonmodel organisms, should be interpreted cautiously, as these models cannot recapitulate other summaries of the data.

The distribution of fitness effects (DFE) has considerable importance in population genetics. To date, estimates of the DFE come from studies using a small number of individuals. Thus, estimates of the proportion of moderately to strongly deleterious new mutations may be unreliable because such variants are unlikely to be segregating in the data. Additionally, the true functional form of the DFE is unknown, and estimates of the DFE differ significantly between studies. Here we present a flexible and computationally tractable method, called Fit∂a∂i, to estimate the DFE of new mutations using the site frequency spectrum from a large number of individuals. We apply our approach to the frequency spectrum of 1300 Europeans from the Exome Sequencing Project ESP6400 data set, 1298 Danes from the LuCamp data set, and 432 Europeans from the 1000 Genomes Project to estimate the DFE of deleterious nonsynonymous mutations. We infer significantly fewer (0.38-0.84 fold) strongly deleterious mutations with selection coefficient |s| > 0.01 and more (1.24-1.43 fold) weakly deleterious mutations with selection coefficient |s| < 0.001 compared to previous estimates. Furthermore, a DFE that is a mixture distribution of a point mass at neutrality plus a gamma distribution fits better than a gamma distribution in two of the three data sets. Our results suggest that nearly neutral forces play a larger role in human evolution than previously thought.

The distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of new mutations plays a fundamental role in evolutionary genetics. However, the extent to which the DFE differs across species has yet to be systematically investigated. Furthermore, the biological mechanisms determining the DFE in natural populations remain unclear. Here, we show that theoretical models emphasizing different biological factors at determining the DFE, such as protein stability, back-mutations, species complexity, and mutational robustness make distinct predictions about how the DFE will differ between species. Analyzing amino acid-changing variants from natural populations in a comparative population genomic framework, we find that humans have a higher proportion of strongly deleterious mutations than Drosophila melanogaster. Furthermore, when comparing the DFE across yeast, Drosophila, mice, and humans, the average selection coefficient becomes more deleterious with increasing species complexity. Last, pleiotropic genes have a DFE that is less variable than that of nonpleiotropic genes. Comparing four categories of theoretical models, only Fisher's geometrical model (FGM) is consistent with our findings. FGM assumes that multiple phenotypes are under stabilizing selection, with the number of phenotypes defining the complexity of the organism. Our results suggest that long-term population size and cost of complexity drive the evolution of the DFE, with many implications for evolutionary and medical genomics.

Dominance is a fundamental parameter in genetics, determining the dynamics of natural selection on deleterious and beneficial mutations, the patterns of genetic variation in natural populations, and the severity of inbreeding depression in a population. Despite this importance, dominance parameters remain poorly known, particularly in humans or other non-model organisms. A key reason for this lack of information about dominance is that it is extremely challenging to disentangle the selection coefficient (s) of a mutation from its dominance coefficient (h). Here, we explore dominance and selection parameters in humans by fitting models to the site frequency spectrum (SFS) for nonsynonymous mutations. When assuming a single dominance coefficient for all nonsynonymous mutations, we find that numerous h values can fit the data, so long as h is greater than ~0.15. Moreover, we also observe that theoretically-predicted models with a negative relationship between h and s can also fit the data well, including models with h = 0.05 for strongly deleterious mutations. Finally, we use our estimated dominance and selection parameters to inform simulations revisiting the question of whether the out-of-Africa bottleneck has led to differences in genetic load between African and non-African human populations. These simulations suggest that the relative burden of genetic load in non-African populations depends on the dominance model assumed, with slight increases for more weakly recessive models and slight decreases shown for more strongly recessive models. Moreover, these results also demonstrate that models of partially recessive nonsynonymous mutations can explain the observed severity of inbreeding depression in humans, bridging the gap between molecular population genetics and direct measures of fitness in humans. Our work represents a comprehensive assessment of dominance and deleterious variation in humans, with implications for parameterizing models of deleterious variation in humans and other mammalian species. Author summary: The dominance coefficient (h) of a mutation determines its impact on organismal fitness when heterozygous. For instance, fully recessive mutations (h = 0) have no effects on fitness when heterozygous whereas additive mutations (h = 0.5) have an effect that is intermediate to the two homozygous genotypes. The extent to which deleterious mutations may be recessive, additive, or dominant is a key area of study in evolutionary genetics. However, dominance parameters remain poorly known in humans and most other organisms due to a variety of technical challenges. In this study, we aim to constrain the possible set of dominance and selection parameters for amino acid changing mutations in humans. We find that a wide range of models are possible, including models with a theoretically-predicted relationship between h and s. We then use a range of plausible selection and dominance models to explore how deleterious variation may have been shaped by the out-of-Africa bottleneck in humans. Our results highlight the subtle influence of dominance on patterns of genetic load in humans and demonstrate that models of partially recessive mutations at amino-acid-changing sites can explain the observed effects of inbreeding on mortality in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dominance refers to the effect of a heterozygous genotype relative to that of the two homozygous genotypes. The degree of dominance of mutations for fitness can have a profound impact on how deleterious and beneficial mutations change in frequency over time as well as on the patterns of linked neutral genetic variation surrounding such selected alleles. Since dominance is such a fundamental concept, it has received immense attention throughout the history of population genetics. Early work from Fisher, Wright, and Haldane focused on understanding the conceptual basis for why dominance exists. More recent work has attempted to test these theories and conceptual models by estimating dominance effects of mutations. However, estimating dominance coefficients has been notoriously challenging and has only been done in a few species in a limited number of studies. In this review, we first describe some of the early theoretical and conceptual models for understanding the mechanisms for the existence of dominance. Second, we discuss several approaches used to estimate dominance coefficients and summarize estimates of dominance coefficients. We note trends that have been observed across species, types of mutations, and functional categories of genes. By comparing estimates of dominance coefficients for different types of genes, we test several hypotheses for the existence of dominance. Lastly, we discuss how dominance influences the dynamics of beneficial and deleterious mutations in populations and how the degree of dominance of deleterious mutations influences the impact of inbreeding on fitness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Poisson Random Field (PRF) model has become an important tool in population genetics to study weakly deleterious genetic variation under complicated demographic scenarios. Currently, there are no freely available software applications that allow simulation of genetic variation data under this model. Here we present PReFerSim, an ANSI C program that performs forward simulations under the PRF model. PReFerSim models changes in population size, arbitrary amounts of inbreeding, dominance and distributions of selective effects. Users can track summaries of genetic variation over time and output trajectories of selected alleles.Availability and implementationPReFerSim is freely available at: https://github.com/LohmuellerLab/PReFerSim CONTACT: klohmueller@ucla.eduSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Population bottlenecks, inbreeding, and artificial selection can all, in principle, influence levels of deleterious genetic variation. However, the relative importance of each of these effects on genome-wide patterns of deleterious variation remains controversial. Domestic and wild canids offer a powerful system to address the role of these factors in influencing deleterious variation because their history is dominated by known bottlenecks and intense artificial selection. Here, we assess genome-wide patterns of deleterious variation in 90 whole-genome sequences from breed dogs, village dogs, and gray wolves. We find that the ratio of amino acid changing heterozygosity to silent heterozygosity is higher in dogs than in wolves and, on average, dogs have 2-3% higher genetic load than gray wolves. Multiple lines of evidence indicate this pattern is driven by less efficient natural selection due to bottlenecks associated with domestication and breed formation, rather than recent inbreeding. Further, we find regions of the genome implicated in selective sweeps are enriched for amino acid changing variants and Mendelian disease genes. To our knowledge, these results provide the first quantitative estimates of the increased burden of deleterious variants directly associated with domestication and have important implications for selective breeding programs and the conservation of rare and endangered species. Specifically, they highlight the costs associated with selective breeding and question the practice favoring the breeding of individuals that best fit breed standards. Our results also suggest that maintaining a large population size, rather than just avoiding inbreeding, is a critical factor for preventing the accumulation of deleterious variants.

Recent breakthroughs in exome-sequencing technology have made possible the identification of many causal variants of monogenic disorders. Although extremely powerful when closely related individuals (eg, child and parents) are simultaneously sequenced, sequencing of a single case is often unsuccessful due to the large number of variants that need to be followed up for functional validation. Many approaches filter out common variants above a given frequency threshold (eg, 1%), and then prioritize the remaining variants according to their functional, structural and conservation properties. Here we present methods that leverage the genetic structure across different populations to improve filtering performance while accounting for the finite sample size of the reference panels. We show that leveraging genetic structure reduces the number of variants that need to be followed up by 16% in simulations and by up to 38% in empirical data of 20 exomes from individuals with monogenic disorders for which the causal variants are known.

BackgroundTechnological advances have enabled the analysis of very small amounts of DNA in forensic cases. However, the DNA profiles from such evidence are frequently incomplete and can contain contributions from multiple individuals. The complexity of such samples confounds the assessment of the statistical weight of such evidence. One approach to account for this uncertainty is to use a likelihood ratio framework to compare the probability of the evidence profile under different scenarios. While researchers favor the likelihood ratio framework, few open-source software solutions with a graphical user interface implementing these calculations are available for practicing forensic scientists.ResultsTo address this need, we developed Lab Retriever, an open-source, freely available program that forensic scientists can use to calculate likelihood ratios for complex DNA profiles. Lab Retriever adds a graphical user interface, written primarily in JavaScript, on top of a C++ implementation of the previously published R code of Balding. We redesigned parts of the original Balding algorithm to improve computational speed. In addition to incorporating a probability of allelic drop-out and other critical parameters, Lab Retriever computes likelihood ratios for hypotheses that can include up to four unknown contributors to a mixed sample. These computations are completed nearly instantaneously on a modern PC or Mac computer.ConclusionsLab Retriever provides a practical software solution to forensic scientists who wish to assess the statistical weight of evidence for complex DNA profiles. Executable versions of the program are freely available for Mac OSX and Windows operating systems.

Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how they result from inappropriate implementation of the Balding-Nichols model in the context of database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry.

It has been hypothesized that the greater proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans is due to the fact that purifying selection is less effective at removing weakly deleterious Neandertal alleles from East Asian populations. Using simulations of a broad range of models of selection and demography, we have shown that this hypothesis cannot account for the higher proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans. Instead, more complex demographic scenarios, most likely involving multiple pulses of Neandertal admixture, are required to explain the data.

While much effort has focused on detecting positive and negative directional selection in the human genome, relatively little work has been devoted to balancing selection. This lack of attention is likely due to the paucity of sophisticated methods for identifying sites under balancing selection. Here we develop two composite likelihood ratio tests for detecting balancing selection. Using simulations, we show that these methods outperform competing methods under a variety of assumptions and demographic models. We apply the new methods to whole-genome human data, and find a number of previously-identified loci with strong evidence of balancing selection, including several HLA genes. Additionally, we find evidence for many novel candidates, the strongest of which is FANK1, an imprinted gene that suppresses apoptosis, is expressed during meiosis in males, and displays marginal signs of segregation distortion. We hypothesize that balancing selection acts on this locus to stabilize the segregation distortion and negative fitness effects of the distorter allele. Thus, our methods are able to reproduce many previously-hypothesized signals of balancing selection, as well as discover novel interesting candidates.

Dyslipidemia and obesity are especially prevalent in populations with Amerindian backgrounds, such as Mexican-Americans, which predispose these populations to cardiovascular disease. Here we design an approach, known as the cross-population allele screen (CPAS), which we conduct prior to a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 19,273 Europeans and Mexicans, in order to identify Amerindian risk genes in Mexicans. Utilizing CPAS to restrict the GWAS input variants to only those differing in frequency between the two populations, we identify novel Amerindian lipid genes, receptor-related orphan receptor alpha (RORA) and salt-inducible kinase 3 (SIK3), and three loci previously unassociated with dyslipidemia or obesity. We also detect lipoprotein lipase (LPL) and apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) harbouring specific Amerindian signatures of risk variants and haplotypes. Notably, we observe that SIK3 and one novel lipid locus underwent positive selection in Mexicans. Furthermore, after a high-fat meal, the SIK3 risk variant carriers display high triglyceride levels. These findings suggest that Amerindian-specific genetic architecture leads to a higher incidence of dyslipidemia and obesity in modern Mexicans.

Wildlife populations are becoming increasingly fragmented by anthropogenic development. Small and isolated populations often face an elevated risk of extinction, in part due to inbreeding depression. Here, we examine the genomic consequences of urbanization in a caracal (Caracal caracal) population that has become isolated in the Cape Peninsula region of the City of Cape Town, South Africa, and is thought to number ~50 individuals. We document low levels of migration into the population over the past ~75 years, with an estimated rate of 1.3 effective migrants per generation. As a consequence of this isolation and small population size, levels of inbreeding are elevated in the contemporary Cape Peninsula population (mean FROH = 0.20). Inbreeding primarily manifests as long runs of homozygosity >10 Mb, consistent with the effects of isolation due to the rapid recent growth of Cape Town. To explore how reduced migration and elevated inbreeding may impact future population dynamics, we parameterized an eco‐evolutionary simulation model. We find that if migration rates do not change in the future, the population is expected to decline, though with a low projected risk of extinction. However, if migration rates decline or anthropogenic mortality rates increase, the potential risk of extinction is greatly elevated. To avert a population decline, we suggest that translocating migrants into the Cape Peninsula to initiate a genetic rescue may be warranted in the near future. Our analysis highlights the utility of genomic datasets coupled with computational simulation models for investigating the influence of gene flow on population viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human Y chromosome exhibits surprisingly low levels of genetic diversity. This could result from neutral processes if the effective population size of males is reduced relative to females due to a higher variance in the number of offspring from males than from females. Alternatively, selection acting on new mutations, and affecting linked neutral sites, could reduce variability on the Y chromosome. Here, using genome-wide analyses of X, Y, autosomal and mitochondrial DNA, in combination with extensive population genetic simulations, we show that low observed Y chromosome variability is not consistent with a purely neutral model. Instead, we show that models of purifying selection are consistent with observed Y diversity. Further, the number of sites estimated to be under purifying selection greatly exceeds the number of Y-linked coding sites, suggesting the importance of the highly repetitive ampliconic regions. While we show that purifying selection removing deleterious mutations can explain the low diversity on the Y chromosome, we cannot exclude the possibility that positive selection acting on beneficial mutations could have also reduced diversity in linked neutral regions, and may have contributed to lowering human Y chromosome diversity. Because the functional significance of the ampliconic regions is poorly understood, our findings should motivate future research in this area.

It has been hypothesized that, in aggregate, rare variants in coding regions of genes explain a substantial fraction of the heritability of common diseases. We sequenced the exomes of 1,000 Danish cases with common forms of type 2 diabetes (including body mass index > 27.5 kg/m(2) and hypertension) and 1,000 healthy controls to an average depth of 56×. Our simulations suggest that our study had the statistical power to detect at least one causal gene (a gene containing causal mutations) if the heritability of these common diseases was explained by rare variants in the coding regions of a limited number of genes. We applied a series of gene-based tests to detect such susceptibility genes. However, no gene showed a significant association with disease risk after we corrected for the number of genes analyzed. Thus, we could reject a model for the genetic architecture of type 2 diabetes where rare nonsynonymous variants clustered in a modest number of genes (fewer than 20) are responsible for the majority of disease risk.

A major question in evolutionary biology is how natural selection has shaped patterns of genetic variation across the human genome. Previous work has documented a reduction in genetic diversity in regions of the genome with low recombination rates. However, it is unclear whether other summaries of genetic variation, like allele frequencies, are also correlated with recombination rate and whether these correlations can be explained solely by negative selection against deleterious mutations or whether positive selection acting on favorable alleles is also required. Here we attempt to address these questions by analyzing three different genome-wide resequencing datasets from European individuals. We document several significant correlations between different genomic features. In particular, we find that average minor allele frequency and diversity are reduced in regions of low recombination and that human diversity, human-chimp divergence, and average minor allele frequency are reduced near genes. Population genetic simulations show that either positive natural selection acting on favorable mutations or negative natural selection acting against deleterious mutations can explain these correlations. However, models with strong positive selection on nonsynonymous mutations and little negative selection predict a stronger negative correlation between neutral diversity and nonsynonymous divergence than observed in the actual data, supporting the importance of negative, rather than positive, selection throughout the genome. Further, we show that the widespread presence of weakly deleterious alleles, rather than a small number of strongly positively selected mutations, is responsible for the correlation between neutral genetic diversity and recombination rate. This work suggests that natural selection has affected multiple aspects of linked neutral variation throughout the human genome and that positive selection is not required to explain these observations.

Abstract Background Estimation of allele frequency is of fundamental importance in population genetic analyses and in association mapping. In most studies using next-generation sequencing, a cost effective approach is to use medium or low-coverage data (e.g., < 15X). However, SNP calling and allele frequency estimation in such studies is associated with substantial statistical uncertainty because of varying coverage and high error rates. Results We evaluate a new maximum likelihood method for estimating allele frequencies in low and medium coverage next-generation sequencing data. The method is based on integrating over uncertainty in the data for each individual rather than first calling genotypes. This method can be applied to directly test for associations in case/control studies. We use simulations to compare the likelihood method to methods based on genotype calling, and show that the likelihood method outperforms the genotype calling methods in terms of: (1) accuracy of allele frequency estimation, (2) accuracy of the estimation of the distribution of allele frequencies across neutrally evolving sites, and (3) statistical power in association mapping studies. Using real re-sequencing data from 200 individuals obtained from an exon-capture experiment, we show that the patterns observed in the simulations are also found in real data. Conclusions Overall, our results suggest that association mapping and estimation of allele frequencies should not be based on genotype calling in low to medium coverage data. Furthermore, if genotype calling methods are used, it is usually better not to filter genotypes based on the call confidence score.

Quantifying the distribution of fitness effects among newly arising mutations in the human genome is key to resolving important debates in medical and evolutionary genetics. Here, we present a method for inferring this distribution using Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data from a population with non-stationary demographic history (such as that of modern humans). Application of our method to 47,576 coding SNPs found by direct resequencing of 11,404 protein coding-genes in 35 individuals (20 European Americans and 15 African Americans) allows us to assess the relative contribution of demographic and selective effects to patterning amino acid variation in the human genome. We find evidence of an ancient population expansion in the sample with African ancestry and a relatively recent bottleneck in the sample with European ancestry. After accounting for these demographic effects, we find strong evidence for great variability in the selective effects of new amino acid replacing mutations. In both populations, the patterns of variation are consistent with a leptokurtic distribution of selection coefficients (e.g., gamma or log-normal) peaked near neutrality. Specifically, we predict 27-29% of amino acid changing (nonsynonymous) mutations are neutral or nearly neutral (|s|1%). Our results are consistent with 10-20% of amino acid differences between humans and chimpanzees having been fixed by positive selection with the remainder of differences being neutral or nearly neutral. Our analysis also predicts that many of the alleles identified via whole-genome association mapping may be selectively neutral or (formerly) positively selected, implying that deleterious genetic variation affecting disease phenotype may be missed by this widely used approach for mapping genes underlying complex traits.

BackgroundGenetic isolates such as the Ashkenazi Jews (AJ) potentially offer advantages in mapping novel loci in whole genome disease association studies. To analyze patterns of genetic variation in AJ, genotypes of 101 healthy individuals were determined using the Affymetrix EAv3 500 K SNP array and compared to 60 CEPH-derived HapMap (CEU) individuals. 435,632 SNPs overlapped and met annotation criteria in the two groups.ResultsA small but significant global difference in allele frequencies between AJ and CEU was demonstrated by a mean FST of 0.009 (P < 0.001); large regions that differed were found on chromosomes 2 and 6. Haplotype blocks inferred from pairwise linkage disequilibrium (LD) statistics (Haploview) as well as by expectation-maximization haplotype phase inference (HAP) showed a greater number of haplotype blocks in AJ compared to CEU by Haploview (50,397 vs. 44,169) or by HAP (59,269 vs. 54,457). Average haplotype blocks were smaller in AJ compared to CEU (e.g., 36.8 kb vs. 40.5 kb HAP). Analysis of global patterns of local LD decay for closely-spaced SNPs in CEU demonstrated more LD, while for SNPs further apart, LD was slightly greater in the AJ. A likelihood ratio approach showed that runs of homozygous SNPs were approximately 20% longer in AJ. A principal components analysis was sufficient to completely resolve the CEU from the AJ.ConclusionLD in the AJ versus was lower than expected by some measures and higher by others. Any putative advantage in whole genome association mapping using the AJ population will be highly dependent on regional LD structure.