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Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

The need to develop and provide integrated observation systems to better understand and manage global and regional environmental change is one of the major challenges facing Earth system science today. In 2008, the German Helmholtz Association took up this challenge and launched the German research infrastructure TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories (TERENO). The aim of TERENO is the establishment and maintenance of a network of observatories as a basis for an interdisciplinary and long‐term research program to investigate the effects of global environmental change on terrestrial ecosystems and their socio‐economic consequences. State‐of‐the‐art methods from the field of environmental monitoring, geophysics, remote sensing, and modeling are used to record and analyze states and fluxes in different environmental disciplines from groundwater through the vadose zone, surface water, and biosphere, up to the lower atmosphere. Over the past 15 years we have collectively gained experience in operating a long‐term observing network, thereby overcoming unexpected operational and institutional challenges, exceeding expectations, and facilitating new research. Today, the TERENO network is a key pillar for environmental modeling and forecasting in Germany, an information hub for practitioners and policy stakeholders in agriculture, forestry, and water management at regional to national levels, a nucleus for international collaboration, academic training and scientific outreach, an important anchor for large‐scale experiments, and a trigger for methodological innovation and technological progress. This article describes TERENO's key services and functions, presents the main lessons learned from this 15‐year effort, and emphasizes the need to continue long‐term integrated environmental monitoring programmes in the future. Plain Language Summary: This paper discusses the importance of creating comprehensive environmental observation systems to better understand and address global and regional environmental changes. In 2008, a German research infrastructure named Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO) was established to build and maintain a network of observatories. The goal is to conduct interdisciplinary, long‐term research on the impacts of global environmental changes on terrestrial ecosystems and their socio‐economic effects. The TERENO network employs advanced methods from environmental monitoring, geophysics, remote sensing, and modeling to study various environmental aspects. Over the past 15 years, four observatories have been part of this network, contributing to valuable experience in overcoming challenges and exceeding expectations. Today, TERENO is a crucial component for environmental modeling and forecasting in Germany, serving as an information hub for practitioners and policymakers. It also fosters international collaboration, supports large‐scale experiments, and drives methodological and technological advancements. The article highlights key lessons learned from this 15‐year effort and emphasizes the importance of continuing such integrated environmental monitoring programs in the future. Key Points: Integrated observatories ensure a holistic Earth Systems perspective, offering data for current and future ecological challengesThe scientific and societal value of observatories is invaluable, but their design, construction and operation require considerable effortFor assured long‐term data collection, research infrastructure must have flexible design for adapting to changing research needs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical vegetation is a major source of global land surface evapotranspiration, and can thus play a major role in global hydrological cycles and global atmospheric circulation. Accurate prediction of tropical evapotranspiration is critical to our understanding of these processes under changing climate. We examined the controls on evapotranspiration in tropical vegetation at 21 pan-tropical eddy covariance sites, conducted a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of 13 evapotranspiration models at these sites, and assessed the ability to scale up model estimates of evapotranspiration for the test region of Amazonia. Net radiation was the strongest determinant of evapotranspiration (mean evaporative fraction was 0.72) and explained 87% of the variance in monthly evapotranspiration across the sites. Vapor pressure deficit was the strongest residual predictor (14%), followed by normalized difference vegetation index (9%), precipitation (6%) and wind speed (4%). The radiation-based evapotranspiration models performed best overall for three reasons: (1) the vegetation was largely decoupled from atmospheric turbulent transfer (calculated from Ω decoupling factor), especially at the wetter sites; (2) the resistance-based models were hindered by difficulty in consistently characterizing canopy (and stomatal) resistance in the highly diverse vegetation; (3) the temperature-based models inadequately captured the variability in tropical evapotranspiration. We evaluated the potential to predict regional evapotranspiration for one test region: Amazonia. We estimated an Amazonia-wide evapotranspiration of 1370 mm yr⁻¹, but this value is dependent on assumptions about energy balance closure for the tropical eddy covariance sites; a lower value (1096 mm yr⁻¹) is considered in discussion on the use of flux data to validate and interpolate models.

Twenty common plant species were screened for emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) at a lowland tropical wet forest site in Costa Rica. Ten of the species examined emitted substantial quantities of isoprene. These species accounted for 35-50% of the total basal area of old-growth forest on the major edaphic site types, indicating that a high proportion of the canopy leaf area is a source of isoprene. A limited number of canopy-level BVOC flux measurements were also collected by relaxed eddy accumulation (REA). These measurements verify that the forest canopy in this region is indeed a significant source of isoprene. In addition, REA fluxes of methanol and especially acetone were also significant, exceeding model estimates and warranting future investigation at this site. Leaf monoterpene emissions were non-detectable or very low from the species surveyed, and ambient concentrations and REA fluxes likewise were very low. Although the isoprene emission rates reported here are largely consistent with phylogenetic relations found in other studies (at the family, genus, and species levels), two species in the family Mimosaceae, a group previously found to consist largely of non-isoprene emitters, emitted significant quantities of isoprene. One of these, Pentaclethra macroloba (Willd.) Kuntze, is by far the most abundant canopy tree species in the forests of this area, composing 30-40% of the total basal area. The other, Zygia longifolia (Humb. & Bonpl.) Britton & Rose is a common riparian species. Our results suggest that the source strength of BVOCs is important not only to tropical atmospheric chemistry, but also may be important in determining net ecosystem carbon exchange.

Infrequent and small precipitation (PPT) events characterize PPT patterns in semiarid grasslands; however, plants and soil microorganisms are adapted to use the unpredictable small pulses of water. Several studies have shown short-term responses of carbon and nitrogen mineralization rates (called the "priming effect" or the Birch effect) stimulated by wet–dry cycles; however, dynamics, drivers, and the contribution of the priming effect to the annual C balance are poorly understood. Thus, we analyzed 6 years of continuous net ecosystem exchange measurements to evaluate the effect of the PPT periodicity and magnitude of individual PPT events on the daily/annual net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) in a semiarid grassland. We included the period between PPT events, previous daytime NEE rate, and previous soil moisture content as the main drivers of the priming effect. Ecosystem respiration (ER) responded within a few hours following a PPT event, whereas it took 5–9 d for gross ecosystem exchange (GEE; where - NEE = GEE + ER) to respond. Precipitation events as low as 0.25 mm increased ER, but cumulative PPT > 40 mm infiltrating deep into the soil profile stimulated GEE. Overall, ER fluxes following PPT events were related to the change in soil water content at shallow depth and previous soil conditions (e.g., previous NEE rate, previous soil water content) and the size of the stimulus (e.g., PPT event size). Carbon effluxes from the priming effect accounted for less than 5 % of ecosystem respiration but were significantly high with respect to the carbon balance. In the long term, changes in PPT regimes to more intense and less frequent PPT events, as expected due to the effects of climate change, could convert the semiarid grassland from a small C sink to a C source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation (PPT) patterns in semiarid grasslands are characterized by infrequent and small PPT events; however, plants and soil microorganisms are adapted to use the unpredictable small pulses of water. Several studies have shown short-term responses of carbon and nitrogen mineralization rates (called the priming effect or the Birch effect) stimulated by wet-dry cycles; however, dynamics, drivers, and the contribution of the “priming effect” to the annual C balance is poorly understood. Thus, we analysed six years of continuous net ecosystem exchange measurements to evaluate the effect of the PPT periodicity, magnitude of individual PPT events on the daily/annual ecosystem C balance (NEE) in a semiarid grassland. We included the period between PPT events, a priori daytime NEE rate and a priori soil moisture content as the main drivers of the priming effect. Ecosystem respiration (ER) responded within few hours following a PPT event whereas it took five-nine days for gross ecosystem exchange (GEE; such as –NEE = GEE + ER) to respond. Precipitation events as low as 0.25 mm increased ER, but cumulative PPT > 40 mm that infiltrated deep into the soil profile stimulated GEE. Overall, ER fluxes following PPT events were related to the change of soil water content at shallow depth and previous soil conditions (e.g., previous NEE rate, previous soil water content) and the size of the stimulus (e.g., PPT event size). Carbon effluxes from priming effect accounted for less than 5% of ecosystem respiration but were significatively high respect to the carbon balance. In the long-term, changes in PPT regimes to more intense and less frequent PPT events, as expected by the climate change effect, could convert the semiarid grassland from a slight C sink to a C source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the sources and sinks of CH4 is critical to both predicting and mitigating future climate change. There are large uncertainties in the global budget of atmospheric CH4, but natural emissions are estimated to be of a similar magnitude to total anthropogenic emissions. The largest sources of uncertainty in scaling bottom-up CH4 estimates stem from limited ground-based measurements and the misalignment between drivers of CH4 fluxes and current land use classifications. To understand the CH4 flux potential of natural ecosystems and agricultural lands in the United States (US) of America, a multi-scale CH4 observation network focused on CH4 flux rates, processes, and scaling methods is required. This can be achieved with a network of ground-based observations that are distributed based on climatic regions and landcover. To determine the gaps in physical infrastructure for developing this network, we need to understand the representativeness of current measurements. We focus here on eddy covariance (EC) flux towers because they are essential for a bottom-up framework that bridges the gap between point-based chamber measurements and airborne or satellite platforms, informing the remote sensing and modelling communities and policy decisions, all the way to IPCC reports. Using multidimensional scaling and a cluster analysis, the US was divided into 10 clusters that were distributed across temperature and wetness gradients. We evaluated the distance to the medoid condition within each cluster for research sites with EC tower infrastructure to identify the gaps in existing infrastructure that limit our ability to constrain the contribution of US biogenic CH4 emissions to the global budget. These gaps occurred across all EC flux tower networks and independently managed sites as well as in some environmental clusters. Through our analysis using climate, land cover, and location variables, we have identified priority areas to target for research infrastructure to provide a more complete understanding of the CH4 flux potential of ecosystem types across the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]