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Identifying the major sources of risk in disease transmission is key to designing effective controls. However, understanding of transmission dynamics across species boundaries is typically poor, making the design and evaluation of controls particularly challenging for zoonotic pathogens. One such global pathogen is Escherichia coli O157, which causes a serious and sometimes fatal gastrointestinal illness. Cattle are the main reservoir for E. coli O157, and vaccines for cattle now exist. However, adoption of vaccines is being delayed by conflicting responsibilities of veterinary and public health agencies, economic drivers, and because clinical trials cannot easily test interventions across species boundaries, lack of information on the public health benefits. Here, we examine transmission risk across the cattle-human species boundary and show three key results. First, supershedding of the pathogen by cattle is associated with the genetic marker stx2. Second, by quantifying the link between shedding density in cattle and human risk, we show that only the relatively rare supershedding events contribute significantly to human risk. Third, we show that this finding has profound consequences for the public health benefits of the cattle vaccine. A naïve evaluation based on efficacy in cattle would suggest a 50% reduction in risk; however, because the vaccine targets the major source of human risk, we predict a reduction in human cases of nearly 85%. By accounting for nonlinearities in transmission across the human-animal interface, we show that adoption of these vaccines by the livestock industry could prevent substantial numbers of human E. coli O157 cases.

Escherichia coli O26 and O157 have similar overall prevalences in cattle in Scotland, but in humans, Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O26 infections are fewer and clinically less severe than E. coli O157 infections. To investigate this discrepancy, we genotyped E. coli O26 isolates from cattle and humans in Scotland and continental Europe. The genetic background of some strains from Scotland was closely related to that of strains causing severe infections in Europe. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling found an association between hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) and multilocus sequence type 21 strains and confirmed the role of stx(2) in severe human disease. Although the prevalences of E. coli O26 and O157 on cattle farms in Scotland are equivalent, prevalence of more virulent strains is low, reducing human infection risk. However, new data on E. coli O26-associated HUS in humans highlight the need for surveillance of non-O157 enterohemorrhagic E. coli and for understanding stx(2) phage acquisition.

To determine the proportion of Escherichia coli O157 cases in Scotland attributable to secondary spread, we analyzed data obtained through entire-population enhanced surveillance. We identified 11% of cases as secondary. Secondary cases in single households were younger than secondary cases in outbreaks affecting >1 household and had similar risk for hemolytic uremic syndrome.

Background: Escherichia coli O157 is an important cause of acute diarrhoea, haemorrhagic colitis and, especially in children, haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS). Incidence rates for human E. coli O157 infection in Scotland are higher than most other United Kingdom, European and North American countries. Cattle are considered the main reservoir for E. coli O157. Significant associations between livestock related exposures and human infection have been identified in a number of studies., Results: Animal Studies: There were no statistically significant differences (P = 0.831) in the mean farm-level prevalence between the two studies (SEERAD: 0.218 (95%CI: 0.141-0.32); IPRAVE: 0.205 (95%CI: 0.135-0.296)). However, the mean pat-level prevalence decreased from 0.089 (95%CI: 0.075-0.105) to 0.040 (95%CI: 0.028-0.053) between the SEERAD and IPRAVE studies respectively (P < 0.001). Highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in mean pat-level prevalence were also observed in the spring, in the North East and Central Scotland, and in the shedding of phage type (PT) 21/28. Human Cases: Contrasting the same time periods, there was a decline in the overall comparative annual reported incidence of human cases as well as in all the major PT groups except 'Other' PTs. For both cattle and humans, the predominant phage type between 1998 and 2004 was PT21/28 comprising over 50% of the positive cattle isolates and reported human cases respectively. The proportion of PT32, however, was represented by few (<5%) of reported human cases despite comprising over 10% of cattle isolates. Across the two studies there were differences in the proportion of PTs 21/28, 32 and 'Other' PTs in both cattle isolates and reported human cases; however, only differences in the cattle isolates were statistically significant (P = 0.002)., Conclusion: There was no significant decrease in the mean farm-level prevalence of E. coli O157 between 1998 and 2004 in Scotland, despite significant declines in mean pat-level prevalence. Although there were declines in the number of human cases between the two study periods, there is no statistically significant evidence that the overall rate (per 100,000 population) of human E. coli O157 infections in Scotland over the last 10 years has altered. Comparable patterns in the distribution of PTs 21/28 and 32 between cattle and humans support a hypothesized link between the bovine reservoir and human infections. This emphasizes the need to apply and improve methods to reduce bovine shedding of E. coli O157 in Scotland where rates appear higher in both cattle and human populations, than in other countries.

Background: Within outbreaks of Escherichia coli O157 (E. coli O157), at least 10-15% of cases are thought to have been acquired by secondary transmission. However, there has been little systematic quantification or characterisation of secondary outbreak cases worldwide. The aim of this study was to characterise secondary outbreak cases, estimate the overall proportion of outbreak cases that were the result of secondary transmission and to analyse the relationships between primary and secondary outbreak cases by mode of transmission, country and median age., Methods: Published data was obtained from 90 confirmed Escherichia coli O157 outbreaks in Great Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia, Canada, the United States and Japan, and the outbreaks were described in terms of modes of primary and secondary transmission, country, case numbers and median case age. Outbreaks were tested for statistically significant differences in the number of ill, confirmed, primary and secondary cases (analysis of variance and Kruskal-Wallis) and in the rate of secondary cases between these variables (Generalised Linear Models)., Results: The outbreaks had a median of 13.5 confirmed cases, and mean proportion of 0.195 secondary cases. There were statistically significant differences in the numbers of ill, confirmed, primary and secondary cases between modes of primary transmission (p < 0.021), and in primary and secondary cases between median age categories (p < 0.039) and modes of secondary transmission (p < 0.001).Secondary case rates differed statistically significantly between modes of secondary and primary transmission and median age categories (all p < 0.001), but not between countries (p = 0.23). Statistically significantly higher rates of secondary transmission were found in outbreaks with a median age <6 years and those with secondary transmission via person to person spread in nurseries. No statistically significant interactions were found between country, mode of transmission and age category., Conclusion: Our analyses indicated that ~20% of E. coli O157 outbreak cases were the result of secondary spread, and that this spread is significantly influenced by age and modes of primary and secondary transmission, but not country. In particular, the results provide further data emphasising the importance of simple but effective preventive strategies, such as handwashing, that can reduce the risk of secondary spread, particularly amongst young children in nurseries.

The three main pathways of Escherichia coli O157 infection are foodborne, environmental (including direct contact with animals and their faeces and contaminated water supplies) or person to person contact. The disease is often nicknamed the 'burger bug' but it appears that environmental risk factors may be more important. In this study we use four techniques (outbreak analysis, case-control studies, disease mapping and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)) to determine whether burgers or environmental pathways present the greater risk in Scotland. Analysis of E. coli O157 outbreaks in Scotland from 1994 to 2003 associated with either meat or dairy foods, or with environmental transmission shows that approximately 40% [M1] of these outbreaks were foodborne, 54% were environmental and 6% involved both transmission routes. However, the largest outbreaks tend to be foodborne accounting for 83% of outbreak cases. Case-control studies indicate strong risk associations with environmental exposure in Scotland, the UK as a whole and the USA, but burgers appear to be more of a risk in the USA. Canadian, Scottish and Swedish disease mapping studies found positive association with indicators of cattle density. In Grampian (North-East Scotland) we found that there was a positive association with cattle and sheep density (divided by human population density) as well as percentage of population on private water supplies. We found 63% of cases in rural postcodes compared with 37% urban after correcting for population differences suggesting that at least 26% of cases may be classified as environmental. QMRA showed that on average, the risk was 100 times greater when visiting a pasture than eating a burger in Grampian. However, it is difficult to determine which pathway actually causes most illnesses as it is unknown how many burgers are consumed daily and what is the frequency of human visits to pasture. The implementation of hygienic food processing post-1996 Central Scotland outbreak and the preference for 'well done' burgers may account for this food being a relatively low risk thus making the 'burger bug' term less appropriate in the UK.

We conducted prospective surveillance of childhood hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) from 1997 to 2001 to describe disease incidence and clinical, epidemiologic and microbiologic characteristics. We compared our findings, where possible, with those of a previous study conducted from 1985 to 1988. The average annual incidence of HUS for the United Kingdom and Ireland (0.71/100,000) was unchanged from 1985 to 1988. The overall early mortality had halved, but the reduction in mortality was almost entirely accounted for by improved outcome in patients with diarrhea-associated HUS. The principal infective cause of diarrhea-associated HUS was Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (STEC O157), although in the 1997-2001 survey STEC O157 phage type (PT) 21/28 had replaced STEC O157 PT2 as the predominant PT. The risk of developing diarrhea-associated HUS was significantly higher in children infected with STEC O157 PT 2 and PT 21/28 compared with other PTs. Hypertension as a complication of HUS was greatly reduced in patients with diarrhea-associated HUS.

Objective: To describe the clinical, epidemiologic and microbiological features of a large outbreak of infection with a multiresistant Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium definitive type DT204b infection involving at least 392 people in five European countries., Methods: Icelandic public-health doctors responded to a report on an Internet news site of an outbreak of infection with a multiresistant strain of Typhimurium DT104 in England by contacting the Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (CDSC). An international alert was sent out through Enter-net. All strains from England & Wales, The Netherlands, Scotland and Germany, and 17 of the outbreak isolates from Iceland, were phage-typed, screened for antimicrobial resistance, and subjected to molecular typing. Hypothesis-generating interviews were conducted, followed by case-control studies performed in Iceland and England., Results: Isolates from cases in Iceland, England and Wales, The Netherlands, Scotland and Germany were identified as Typhimurium DT204b. The antimicrobial resistance pattern was ACGNeKSSuTTmNxCpL. All strains tested displayed an identical plasmid profile. Strains from five cases in England & Wales and five cases in Iceland possessed identical pulsed-field profiles. Although a common source was suspected, only Iceland implicated imported lettuce as a vehicle, with an analytic epidemiologic study (OR = 40.8; P = 0.005; 95% CI 2.7-3175)., Conclusion: The identification of international outbreaks, necessary for investigation and control, can be facilitated by standardized phage-typing techniques, the electronic transfer of molecular typing patterns, formal and informal links established through international surveillance networks, and the early reporting of national outbreaks to such networks.

To determine environmental risk factors for sporadic E. coli O157 infection in Scotland we undertook a prospective, matched case-control study between 1 October 1996 and 31 March 1999. One hundred and eighty-three cases and 545 matched controls were recruited. Contact with animal faeces (OR = 3.65; 95% CI 1.81, 7.34: P < 0.0005) and likely contact with animal faeces (OR = 4.8; 95% CI 2.42, 9.48; P < 0.0005) emerged as strong risk factors for infection. Certain exposures (mainly food-related) were inversely associated with infection i.e. were statistically protective. Most striking was the consumption of bottled water (OR = 0.28; 95% CI 0.15, 0.52; P < 0.0005). Transmission of E. coli O157 does not occur simply through contaminated food. Members of the public need to be aware of the potential for acquiring E. coli O157 through contamination of the environment with animal faeces so that they may take measures to mitigate their risk.