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Of the large, public companies that seek to remain in business through bankruptcy reorganization, only 70 percent succeed. The assets of the other 30 percent are absorbed into other businesses. Success is important both because it is efficient and because it preserves jobs, communities, supplier and customer relationships, and tax revenues. This Article reports the findings of the first comprehensive study of the variables that determine whether a business will succeed or fail. Eleven conditions best predict companies' survival prospects. First, a company that even hints in the press release announcing its bankruptcy that it intends to sell its business is highly likely to fail. Second, reorganizations assigned to more experienced judges are more likely to succeed. Third, companies headquartered in isolated geographical areas are more likely to fail. Fourth, companies that report greater shareholder equity are more likely to fail. Fifth, companies with routinely appointed creditors' committees are more likely to fail. Sixth, companies with debtor-in-possession (DIP) loans are more likely to succeed. Seventh, companies that prepackage or prenegotiate their plans are more likely to succeed. Eighth, companies that file in periods of low interest rates are more likely to succeed. Ninth, larger companies are more likely to succeed. Tenth, manufacturers are more likely to succeed. Eleventh, companies with positive pre-filing operating income are more likely to succeed. System participants may be able to improve survival rates by shifting cases to more experienced judges and perhaps also by paying greater attention to the decisions to appoint creditors' committees, to prenegotiate plans, to obtain DIP loans, and to publicly seek alliances.

Since the price peak in 2006, home values have fallen more than 30 percent, leaving millions of Americans with negative equity in their homes. Until the Supreme Court's 1993 decision in Nobelman v. American Savings Bank, the bankruptcy system would have provided many such homeowners with a remedy. They could have filed bankruptcy, discharged the negative equity, committed to pay the mortgage holders the full values of their homes, and retained those homes. In Nobelman, however, the Court misinterpreted reasonably clear statutory language and invented legislative history to resolve a three-toone split of circuits in favor of the minority view that debtors could not modify even the unsecured portions of the mortgages on their principal residences. Courts and commentators have since assumed that modifying home mortgages in bankruptcy is impossible. This Article presents a legal strategy for modifying home mortgages despite Nobelman. The strategy requires that debtors move out of their houses, lease the houses for one year, file bankruptcy, and propose mortgage modification plans that pay mortgage holders the full current values of the houses. This Article argues that despite the artificiality of a move-out with the intention to return, bankruptcy judges will approve the modification plans. The judges will do so because existing precedent requires approval and because the modification plans will be in the best interests of not only the debtors but also the mortgage holders and the American economy. The strategy will enable hundreds of thousands of homeowners to retain homes they would otherwise have lost to foreclosure.