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In this study, we hypothesised that the actual development stage (i.e., current age of the ecosystem) is a determining factor for the magnitude of methane production and emissions in young, northern high-latitude peatlands. We demonstrate that the earliest development of peat soil imposes a sink-to-source shift in the greenhouse warming potential of emerging peatlands in response to climate change that holds feedback mechanisms of importance for short-term (< 100 years) climate warming.

The continuous change in observed key indicators such as increasing nitrogen deposition, temperatures and precipitation will have marked but uncertain consequences for the ecosystem carbon (C) sink-source functioning of the Arctic. Here, we use multiple in-situ data streams measured by the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring programme in tight connection with the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere model and climate projections from the high-resolution HIRHAM5 regional model. We apply this modelling framework with focus on two climatically different tundra sites in Greenland (Zackenberg and Kobbefjord) to assess how sensitive the net C uptake will expectedly be under warmer and wetter conditions across the 21st century and pin down the relative contribution to the overall C sink strength from climate versus plant trait variability. Our results suggest that temperatures (5–7.7 °C), total precipitation (19–110 %) and vapour pressure deficit will increase (32–36 %), while shortwave radiation will decline (6–9 %) at both sites by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Such a combined effect will, on average, intensify the net C uptake by 9–10 g C m−2 year−1 at both sites towards the end of 2100, but Zackenberg is expected to have more than twice the C sink strength capacity of Kobbefjord. Our sensitivity analysis not only reveals that plant traits are the most sensitive parameters controlling the net C exchange in both sites at the beginning and end of the century, but also that the projected increase in the net C uptake will likely be similarly influenced by future changes in climate and existing local nutrient conditions. A series of experiments forcing realistic changes in plant nitrogen status at both sites corroborates this hypothesis. This work proves the unique synergy between monitoring data and numerical models to assist robust model calibration/validation and narrow uncertainty ranges and ultimately produce more reliable C cycle projections in understudied regions such as Gree

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO₂ sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO₂ sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO₂ later in the season.

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic–boreal CO₂ fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO₂ exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19 % of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3 %) and eddy covariance (78 %) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June–August; 32 %), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September–October; 25 %), winter (December–February; 18 %), and spring (March–May; 25 %). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO₂ fluxes and to better es

Predicted intensified climate warming will likely alter the ecosystem net carbon (C) uptake of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Variations in C sink–source responses to climate warming have been linked to water availability; however, the mechanisms by which net C uptake responds to soil water content in saturated swamp meadow ecosystems remain unclear. To explore how soil moisture and other environmental drivers modulate net C uptake in the QTP, field measurements were conducted using the eddy covariance technique in 2014, 2015, 2017, and 2018. The alpine swamp meadow presented in this study was a persistent and strong C sink of CO₂ (−168.0 ± 62.5 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, average ± standard deviation) across the entire 4-year study period. A random forest machine-learning analysis suggested that the diurnal and seasonal variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) were regulated by temperature and net radiation. Ecosystem respiration (Re), however, was found mainly regulated by the variability of soil water content (SWC) at different temporal aggregations, followed by temperature, the second contributing driver. We further explored how Re is controlled by nearly saturated soil moisture and temperature comparing two different periods featuring almost identical temperatures and significant differences on SWC and vice versa. Our data suggest that, despite the relatively abundant water supply, periods with a substantial decrease in SWC or increase in temperature produced higher Re and therefore weakened the C sink strength. Our results reveal that nearly saturated soil conditions during the growing seasons can help maintain lower ecosystem respiration rates and thus enhance the overall C sequestration capacity in this alpine swamp meadow. We argue that soil respiration and subsequent ecosystem C sink magnitude in alpine swamp meadows could likely be affected by future changes in soil hydrological conditions caused by permafrost degrada