Search

An urgent problem in controlling COVID-19 spreading is to understand the role of undocumented infection. We develop a five-state model for COVID-19, taking into account the unique features of the novel coronavirus, with key parameters determined by the government reports and mathematical optimization. Tests using data from China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran indicate that the model is capable of generating accurate prediction of the daily accumulated number of confirmed cases and is entirely suitable for real-time prediction. The drastically disparate testing and diagnostic standards/policies among different countries lead to large variations in the estimated parameter values such as the duration of the outbreak, but such uncertainties have little effect on the occurrence time of the inflection point as predicted by the model, indicating its reliability and robustness. Model prediction for Italy suggests that insufficient government action leading to a large fraction of undocumented infection plays an important role in the abnormally high mortality in that country. With the data currently available from United Kingdom, our model predicts catastrophic epidemic scenarios in the country if the government did not impose strict travel and social distancing restrictions. A key finding is that, if the percentage of undocumented infection exceeds a threshold, a non-negligible hidden population can exist even after the the epidemic has been deemed over, implying the likelihood of future outbreaks should the currently imposed strict government actions be relaxed. This could make COVID-19 evolving into a long-term epidemic or a community disease a real possibility, suggesting the necessity to conduct universal testing and monitoring to identify the hidden individuals., Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures

Non-Markovian spontaneous recovery processes with a time delay (memory) are ubiquitous in the real world. How does the non-Markovian characteristic affect failure propagation in complex networks? We consider failures due to internal causes at the nodal level and external failures due to an adverse environment, and develop a pair approximation analysis taking into account the two-node correlation. In general, a high failure stationary state can arise, corresponding to large-scale failures that can significantly compromise the functioning of the network. We uncover a striking phenomenon: memory associated with nodal recovery can counter-intuitively make the network more resilient against large-scale failures. In natural systems, the intrinsic non-Markovian characteristic of nodal recovery may thus be one reason for their resilience. In engineering design, incorporating certain non-Markovian features into the network may be beneficial to equipping it with a strong resilient capability to resist catastrophic failures., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, Supplementary Information

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e. either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a Susceptible-Accepted-Recovered (SAR) model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures

The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point of all past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single epidemic spreading episode. At variance, real data from different cities over the world suggest that, besides a major single peak trait of infected density, a finite probability exists for a pattern made of two (or multiple) peaks. We show that such a latter feature is fully distinctive of a multilayered network of interactions, and reveal that actually a two peaks pattern emerges from different time delays at which the epidemic spreads in between the two layers. Further, we show that essential ingredients are different degree distributions in the two layers and a weak coupling condition between the layers themselves. Moreover, an edge-based theory is developed which fully explains all numerical results. Our findings may therefore be of significance for protecting secondary disasters of epidemics, which are definitely undesired in real life., Comment: 30 pages, 4 figures

Recently, the explosive phase transitions, such as explosive percolation and explosive synchronization, have attracted extensive research interest. So far, most existing works investigate Kuramoto-type models, where only phase variables are involved. Here, we report the occurrence of explosive oscillation quenching in a system of coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators that incorporates both phase and amplitude dynamics. We observe three typical scenarios with distinct microscopic mechanism of occurrence, i.e., ordinary, hierarchical, and cluster explosive oscillation death, corresponding to different frequency distributions of oscillators, respectively. We carry out theoretical analyses and obtain the backward transition point, which is shown to be independent of the specific frequency distributions. Numerical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction.

In this work, we study the dynamical robustness in a system consisting of both active and inactive oscillators. We analytically show that the dynamical robustness of such system is determined by the cross link density between active and inactive subpopulations, which depends on the specific process of inactivation. It is the multi-valued dependence of the cross link density on the control parameter, i.e., the ratio of inactive oscillators in the system, that leads to the fluctuation of the critical points. We further investigate how different network topologies and inactivation strategies affect the fluctuation. Our results explain why the fluctuation is more obvious in heterogeneous networks than in homogeneous ones, and why the low-degree nodes are crucial in terms of dynamical robustness. The analytical results are supported by numerical verifications.

It has been found that contrarian oscillators usually take a negative role in the collective behaviors formed by conformist oscillators. However, experiments revealed that it is also possible to achieve a strong coherence even when there are contrarians in the system such as neuron networks with both excitable and inhibitory neurons. To understand the underlying mechanism of this abnormal phenomenon, we here consider a complex network of coupled Kuramoto oscillators with mixed positive and negative couplings and present an efficient approach, i.e. tit-for-tat strategy, to suppress the negative role of contrarian oscillators in synchronization and thus increase the order parameter of synchronization. Two classes of contrarian oscillators are numerically studied and a brief theoretical analysis is provided to explain the numerical results.

Global and partial synchronization are the two distinctive forms of synchronization in coupled oscillators and have been well studied in the past decades. Recent attention on synchronization is focused on the chimera state (CS) and explosive synchronization (ES), but little attention has been paid to their relationship. We here study this topic by presenting a model to bridge these two phenomena, which consists of two groups of coupled oscillators and its coupling strength is adaptively controlled by a local order parameter. We find that this model displays either CS or ES in two limits. In between the two limits, this model exhibits both CS and ES, where CS can be observed for a fixed coupling strength and ES appears when the coupling is increased adiabatically. Moreover, we show both theoretically and numerically that there are a variety of CS basin patterns for the case of identical oscillators, depending on the distributions of both the initial order parameters and the initial average phases. This model suggests a way to easily observe CS, in contrast to others models having some (weak or strong) dependence on initial conditions.

Chimera states have been studied in 1D arrays, and a variety of different chimera states have been found using different models. Research has recently been extended to 2D arrays but only to phase models of them. Here, we extend it to a nonphase model of 2D arrays of neurons and focus on the influence of nonlocal coupling. Using extensive numerical simulations, we find, surprisingly, that this system can show most types of previously observed chimera states, in contrast to previous models, where only one or a few types of chimera states can be observed in each model. We also find that this model can show some special chimera-like patterns such as gridding and multicolumn patterns, which were previously observed only in phase models. Further, we present an effective approach, i.e., removing some of the coupling links, to generate heterogeneous coupling, which results in diverse chimera-like patterns and even induces transformations from one chimera-like pattern to another.