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The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC), initially developed for signal processing and psychology, are a test for assessing the performance of a binary classification problem at varying threshold values. The ion density (Ni) observed by FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 is used to study traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) triggered by the 15 January 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption. We examine parameters of Ni, differential Ni, and standard deviation Ni (STD_Ni) in January 2022, simulate TID wavefronts traveling with various speeds from 10 to 1,000 m/s, and apply the ROC curve to globally identify the significance of TIDs in STD_Ni triggered by the volcanic eruption. ROC and AUC results show that in addition to TIDs related to tsunami/tropospheric Lamb waves and a series of fast‐moving waves with propagation speeds of 180–350 and 450–600 m/s, respectively, those long‐lasting low‐speeds less than 70 m/s and high‐speeds about 690, 860, and 990 m/s meet 95% statistical significance, which confirms TIDs being detected. These show that the FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 ion density can be used to globally detect various TIDs triggered by the Tonga volcanic eruption. The ROC test results also show a potential use case for detecting other geophysical signals in future applications. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale natural phenomena such as volcanoes and tsunami induce prominent traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) which also simultaneously and locally influence the above ionosphere activating prominent traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs). To assess the significance of such TIDs, we treat the TIDs as a series of signals, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC), developed to address binary classification problems, are used to evaluate these signals at varying threshold values. The 15 January 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption triggers a series of TADs, TIDs, and tsunami waves propagating around the globe. Measurements of the ion density (Ni) by IVM (ion velocity meter) onboard FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 (F7C2) are used to identify TIDs triggered by the volcanic eruption. We examine TIDs of F7C2 Ni, differential Ni, and standard deviation (STD) of Ni in January 2022, and find that TIDs associated with the tsunami waves, tropospheric Lamb waves, and high‐speed waves within 450–600 m/s triggered by the Tonga volcanic eruption on the globe are very prominent on the eruption day. In addition, TIDs with long‐lasting low‐speeds less than 70 m/s and high‐speeds about 690, 860, and 990 m/s can be identified in the ROC curves and AUC indices. Key Points: The FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 ion density globally observes various traveling ionospheric disturbances triggered by the Tonga volcanic eruptionThe receiver operating characteristic (ROC) test can detect traveling ionospheric disturbances and potentially other geophysical signalsDisturbances with low‐speeds of 10–70 m/s, tsunami, tropospheric Lamb wave, and high‐speeds of 490/690/860/990 m/s are identified [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Iterative Driver Estimation and Assimilation (IDEA) data assimilation technique was used with the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) to improve neutral density specification in the upper thermosphere. Two different neutral density data sources were examined to enhance the capability of simulating the global thermospheric state. The first were accelerometer estimates of neutral density from the Challenging Mini‐Satellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite. The second were neutral density estimates from the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) limb‐scan airglow observations aboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Due to the intensity of the November 2003 storm, two changes were necessary in WAM. The first was allowing the Kp geomagnetic index to exceed 9 and the second was changing the relationship between Kp and the solar wind parameters used to drive the model. With these changes, results show that IDEA effectively captures the thermospheric neutral density at the CHAMP satellite altitude and follows the time‐dependence through the November 2003 storm period. Furthermore, a cross‐comparison was conducted with the GUVI dayside limb scan measurements. GUVI neutral densities within 270–320 km show the closest agreement with WAM when CHAMP data was assimilated by IDEA. We speculate on the potential for observations from GUVI at 300 km to be used as a data source in the IDEA‐WAM simulations. These simulations demonstrate the utility of the IDEA data assimilation technique with physical models and that using either accelerometer observations or ultraviolet airglow limb measurement during extreme storm periods could be used. Plain Language Summary: Strong variations in the neutral density of the thermosphere heavily impact the position of low Earth orbit objects as they respond to radiative inputs from the Sun in the extreme ultraviolet (UV) wavelength range, energetic particle precipitation in the auroral regions, and global‐scale electrical currents generated during geomagnetic storms. In this study, the Iterative Driver Estimation and Assimilation (IDEA) data assimilation technique was used with the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) to improve neutral density specification in the upper thermosphere. The Challenging Mini‐Satellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite and the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) limb scan UV airglow observations aboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite were examined to enhance the capability of simulating the global thermospheric state. Results show that IDEA effectively captures the thermospheric neutral density at the CHAMP satellite altitude throughout the November 2003 storm period. Furthermore, GUVI limb scan measurements on the dayside were cross‐compared with IDEA densities. We speculate on the potential for observations from GUVI during the daytime to be used as a data source in the IDEA‐WAM simulations. This study demonstrates data assimilative physical models are capable of improving neutral density specification for better orbit determination and prediction of low Earth orbiting satellites. Key Points: Iterative Driver Estimation and Assimilation (IDEA) data assimilation system greatly improves the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) thermospheric neutral density nowcasting capabilityDifferent locations of observed and modeled high‐latitude density hole structures lead to discrepancy between Challenging Mini‐Satellite Payload and the model outputIDEA output is validated against Global Ultraviolet Imager data, indicating a potential use case for limb‐scan measurements in the WAM neutral density forecast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An expression of Rayleigh‐Taylor (R‐T) instability growth rate based on the field‐line integrated theory is newly established. This expression can be directly utilized in ionosphere models with magnetic flux tube structure based on Modified Apex Coordinates. The R‐T instability growth rates are calculated using the thermospheric and ionospheric conditions based on the coupled Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamic model (WAM‐IPE). The parameters used in this calculation include the field‐line integrated conductivities and currents, which consider the Quasi‐Dipole Coordinates and the modifications to the equations of electrodynamics. Detailed description of the new formulas and comprehensive analyses of diurnal, longitudinal, and seasonal variations of the R‐T instability growth rate are carried out. The dependencies of growth rates on pre‐reversal enhancement (PRE) vertical drifts and solar activity are also examined. The results show that pronounced R‐T growth rates are captured between 18 and 22 local time (LT) when strong PRE occurs in the equatorial ionosphere. The simulated R‐T growth rate increases with increasing solar activity levels and demonstrates strong correlations with the angle between the sunset terminator and the geomagnetic field line. These results are consistent with plasma irregularity occurrence rates shown in various satellite observations, suggesting that the newly developed R‐T growth rate calculation can effectively capture the probability of irregularities by considering the changes along magnetic flux‐tubes in the ionosphere. Since the WAM‐IPE is running in operation at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center, the new calculations can be potentially implemented in the near future to provide forecasted information of the R‐T growth rate. Key Points: A new expression incorporating Modified Apex coordinates for calculating the Rayleigh‐Taylor (R‐T) instability growth rate has been establishedThe simulation of R‐T growth rate using Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamic model closely resembles the bubble occurrence observed by satellitesThe R‐T instability is primarily driven by the eastward electric field, which is correlated with the pre‐reversal enhancement vertical drift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This letter reports first simultaneous detection of F‐region plasma‐depleted structure in O(1D) 630.0 and O(1S) 557.7 nm airglow images on a geomagnetically quiet‐night (Ap = 3) of 26 June 2021 from mid‐latitude station (Hanle, India) due to enhanced thermospheric 557.7 nm emission. Since nighttime thermospheric 557.7 nm emission over mid‐latitudes is predominantly masked by significantly larger mesospheric component, F‐region plasma structures are rarely observed in 557.7 nm images. Interestingly, thermospheric 557.7 nm emission was not significant on the following geomagnetically quiet‐night as bands of medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbance were only observed in 630.0 nm images. Poleward wind generated by Equatorial Temperature and Wind Anomaly transported plasma from the boundary of equatorial ionization anomaly, causing significant electron density enhancement around 250 km and descent of F‐layer peak over Hanle on 26 June 2021. This amplified the dissociative recombination enabling the simultaneous detection of plasma‐depleted structure in 557.7 and 630.0 nm images. Plain Language Summary: The thermospheric O(1S) 557.7 generated through dissociative recombination of O2+ in the F‐region is significantly lower than its mesospheric counterpart which is generated via the Barth mechanism in the Mesosphere‐Lower‐Thermosphere region. This causes difficulties in the simultaneous detection of mid‐latitude F‐region plasma structures in 630.0 and 557.7 nm airglow images during geomagnetically quiet nights of low solar active years. We report, for the first time, such simultaneous detection of plasma‐depleted structure from mid‐latitude station (Hanle, India) on a geomagnetically quiet night of 26 June 2021. Interestingly, the thermospheric 557.7 nm emission was not significant on the following geomagnetically quiet night as bands of medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbance were detected only in the 630.0 nm images. Results from multi‐instrument data sets showed the descent of F‐layer peak and significant electron density enhancement over Hanle. The local poleward wind generated by stronger Equatorial Temperature and Wind Anomaly on 26 June 2021 transported the plasma from the boundary of the equatorial ionization anomaly region to Hanle through geomagnetic field lines. This caused the enhancement of electron density around 250 km and descent of F‐layer peak over Hanle that created suitable condition for the amplification of dissociative recombination reaction. Key Points: Simultaneous observation of mid‐latitude F‐region plasma‐depleted structure in O(1D) 630.0 and O(1S) 557.7 nm airglow imagesSignificantly higher electron density is observed over the region on 26 June 2021 than on the following night at airglow emission altitudeThermospheric O(1S) 557.7 nm emission contributed significantly due to the enhancement in the dissociative recombination reaction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NASA global‐scale observations of the limb and disk (GOLD) mission is a measurement opportunity to scan the far ultraviolet airglow at ∼134–162 nm over the American Hemisphere since October 2018. The FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 (F7/C2) satellite mission has provided thousands of daily radio occultation soundings in the low‐ and mid‐latitude regions since July 2019. The nighttime OI–135.6 nm emission is mainly through radiative recombination, and the radiance is used to derive the peak electron density. Comparison with corresponding F7/C2 observations demonstrates good correlation in low‐latitudes, while is overestimated near mid‐latitudes in winter, induced by the photoelectrons emanating from magnetically conjugate Hemisphere. The machine learning technique Bagged Trees is implemented to develop an intensity to peak density model training from GOLD and F7/C2 observations. The validation demonstrates that Bagged Trees peak‐density has less influence from conjugate photoelectrons and indicates the power of machine learning techniques for geophysics data processing. Plain Language Summary: The global‐scale observations of the limb and disk (GOLD) mission can scan wide ranges of far‐ultraviolet airglow at ∼134–162 nm over the American Hemisphere, providing the intensity of the airglow radiance and related maximum electron density of the ionosphere. Meanwhile, the FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 (F7/C2) satellite mission receives GNSS radio signal to do radio occultation soundings and provides more than 4,000 of vertical electron density profiles daily. This study examines the two observations from different sounding techniques and algorithms, which generally yield good agreements, except that in the winter Hemisphere, the GOLD images experience the twilight airglow excited by conjugate photoelectrons emanating during May, June, and July. Moreover, the machine learning technique Bagged Trees is implemented to develop an intensity to peak density model training from two satellite observations, and the validation shows that the machine learning technique can detect and reduce the influence of the conjugate photoelectrons. The results indicate that the model can improve and increase the accuracy of the application of GOLD intensity for retrieving the peak electron density of the ionosphere. Key Points: The F7/C2 NmF2 and global‐scale observations of the limb and disk (GOLD) 135.6 nm airglow peak density are consistent except in the mid‐latitude region in the winter HemisphereThe machine learning technique bagged tree is used to develop an intensity to NmF2 model based on GOLD and F7/C2 observationsThe machine learning model can reduce the overestimation of NmF2 influenced by the photoelectrons emanating from the opposite Hemisphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]