Search

Some electromagnetically observed ultra-compact binaries will be strong gravitational wave sources for space-based detectors like the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). These sources have historically been referred to as "verification binaries" under the assumption that they will be exploited to assess mission performance. This paper quantitatively interrogates that scenario by considering targeted analyses of known galactic sources in the context of a full simulation of the galactic gravitational wave foreground. We find that the analysis of the best currently known LISA binaries, even making maximal use of the available information about the sources, is susceptible to ambiguity or biases when not simultaneously fitting to the rest of the galactic population. While galactic binaries discovered electromagnetically in advance of, or during, the LISA survey are highly valuable multimessenger systems, the need for a global treatment of the galactic gravitational wave foreground calls into question whether or not they are the best sources for data characterization., Comment: 8 pages, 13 figures

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is the first scientific endeavour to detect and study gravitational waves from space. LISA will survey the sky for Gravitational Waves in the 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz frequency band which will enable the study of a vast number of objects ranging from Galactic binaries and stellar mass black holes in the Milky Way, to distant massive black-hole mergers and the expansion of the Universe. This definition study report, or Red Book, presents a summary of the very large body of work that has been undertaken on the LISA mission over the LISA definition phase., Comment: 155 pages, with executive summary and table of contents

We investigate the impact of transient noise artifacts, or {\it glitches}, on gravitational wave inference, and the efficacy of data cleaning procedures in recovering unbiased source properties. Due to their time-frequency morphology, broadband glitches demonstrate moderate to significant biasing of posterior distributions away from true values. In contrast, narrowband glitches have negligible biasing effects owing to distinct signal and glitch morphologies. We inject simulated binary black hole signals into data containing three common glitch types from past LIGO-Virgo observing runs, and reconstruct both signal and glitch waveforms using {\tt BayesWave}, a wavelet-based Bayesian analysis. We apply the standard LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA deglitching procedure to the detector data - we subtract the glitch waveform estimated by the joint {\tt BayesWave} inference before performing parameter estimation with detailed compact binary waveform models. We find that this deglitching effectively mitigates bias from broadband glitches, with posterior peaks aligning with true values post deglitching. This provides a baseline validation of existing techniques, while demonstrating waveform reconstruction improvements to the Bayesian algorithm for robust astrophysical characterization in glitch-prone detector data., Comment: 22 pages, 17 figures

LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will usher in a new era in gravitational-wave astronomy. As the first anticipated space-based gravitational-wave detector, it will expand our view to the millihertz gravitational-wave sky, where a spectacular variety of interesting new sources abound: from millions of ultra-compact binaries in our Galaxy, to mergers of massive black holes at cosmological distances; from the beginnings of inspirals that will venture into the ground-based detectors' view to the death spiral of compact objects into massive black holes, and many sources in between. Central to realising LISA's discovery potential are waveform models, the theoretical and phenomenological predictions of the pattern of gravitational waves that these sources emit. This white paper is presented on behalf of the Waveform Working Group for the LISA Consortium. It provides a review of the current state of waveform models for LISA sources, and describes the significant challenges that must yet be overcome., Comment: 239 pages, 11 figures, white paper from the LISA Consortium Waveform Working Group, invited for submission to Living Reviews in Relativity, updated with comments from community

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, version matching published paper

Context. Galactic binaries account for the loudest combined continuous gravitational wave signal in the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) band, which spans a frequency range of 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz. Aims. A superposition of low frequency Galactic and extragalactic signals and instrument noise comprise the LISA data stream. Resolving as many Galactic binary signals as possible and characterising the unresolved Galactic foreground noise after their subtraction from the data are a necessary step towards a global fit solution to the LISA data. Methods. We analyse a simulated gravitational wave time series of tens of millions of ultra-compact Galactic binaries hundreds of thousands of years from merger. This data set is called the Radler Galaxy and is part of the LISA Data challenges. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo search pipeline specifically designed to perform a global fit to the Galactic binaries and detector noise. Our analysis is performed for increasingly larger observation times of 1.5, 3, 6 and 12 months. Results. We show that after one year of observing, as many as ten thousand ultra-compact binary signals are individually resolvable. Ultra-compact binary catalogues corresponding to each observation time are presented. The Radler Galaxy is a training data set, with binary parameters for every signal in the data stream included. We compare our derived catalogues to the LISA Data challenge Radler catalogue to quantify the detection efficiency of the search pipeline. Included in the appendix is a more detailed analysis of two corner cases that provide insight into future improvements to our search pipeline.

We present an analysis of new and archival data to the 20.506-minute LISA verification binary J052610.42$+$593445.32 (J0526$+$5934). Our joint spectroscopic and photometric analysis finds that the binary contains an unseen $M_1=0.89\pm0.11~{\rm M_\odot}$ CO-core white dwarf primary with an $M_2=0.38\pm0.07~{\rm M_\odot}$ post-core-burning subdwarf, or low-mass white dwarf, companion. Given the short orbital period and relatively large total binary mass, we find that LISA will detect this binary with signal-to-noise ratio $44$ after 4 years of observations. J0526$+$5934 is expected to merge within $1.8\pm0.3~{\rm Myr}$ and likely result in a ${\rm D}^6$ scenario Type Ia supernova or form a He-rich star which will evolve into a massive single white dwarf., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables. Accepted in ApJ

This paper presents rigorous tests of pulsar timing array methods and software, examining their consistency across a wide range of injected parameters and signal strength. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms \texttt{Enterprise} and \texttt{PTMCMCSampler} are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster when the white noise parameters remain fixed. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis software. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, injection recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the cross-correlation-based optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current and future analyses of PTA data., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 1 table; Companion paper to "The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background"; For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos

The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons., Comment: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Previous work demonstrated effective laser frequency noise (LFN) suppression for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data from raw phasemeter measurements using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with fractional delay interpolation (FDI) techniques to estimate the spacecraft separation parameters required for time-delay interferometry (TDI) under the assumption of a rigidly rotating LISA configuration. Including TDI parameters in the LISA data model as part of a global fit analysis pipeline enables gravitational wave inferences to be marginalized over uncertainty in the spacecraft separations. Here we extend the algorithm's capability to perform data-driven TDI on LISA in Keplerian orbits, which introduce a time-dependence in the arm-length parameters and at least $\mathcal{O}$(M) times greater computational cost since the filter must be applied for every sample in the time series of sample size M. We find feasibility of arm-length estimation on $\sim$day-long time scales by using a novel Taylor-expanded version of the fractional delay interpolation filter that allows half of the filter computation to be calculated and stored before MCMC iterations and requires shorter filter lengths than previously reported. We demonstrate LFN suppression for orbiting LISA using accurate arm-length estimates parameterized by Keplerian orbital parameters under the assumption of unperturbed analytical Keplerian orbits, and explore the potential extension of these methods to arbitrary numerical orbits.

Galactic compact binaries with orbital periods shorter than a few hours emit detectable gravitational waves at low frequencies. Their gravitational wave signals can be detected with the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Crucially, they may be useful in the early months of the mission operation in helping to validate LISA's performance in comparison to pre-launch expectations. We present an updated list of 55 candidate LISA binaries with measured properties, for which we derive distances based on Gaia Data release 3 astrometry. Based on the known properties from electromagnetic observations, we predict the LISA detectability after 1, 3, 6, and 48 months with state-of-the-art Bayesian analysis methods. We distinguish between verification and detectable binaries as being detectable after 3 and 48 months respectively. We find 18 verification binaries and 22 detectable sources, which triples the number of known LISA binaries over the last few years. These include detached double white dwarfs, AM CVn binaries, one ultracompact X-ray binary and two hot subdwarf binaries. We find that across this sample the gravitational wave amplitude is expected to be measured to $\approx10\%$ on average, while the inclination is expected to be determined with $\approx15^\circ$ precision. For detectable binaries these average errors increase to $\approx50\%$ and to $\approx40^\circ$ respectively., Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ, 19 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

The novel data analysis challenges posed by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) arise from the overwhelmingly large number of astrophysical sources in the measurement band and the density with which they are found in the data. Robust detection and characterization of the numerous gravitational wave sources in LISA data can not be done sequentially, but rather through a simultaneous global fit of a data model containing the full suite of astrophysical and instrumental features present in the data. While previous analyses have focused on individual source types in isolation, here we present the first demonstration of a LISA global fit analysis containing combined astrophysical populations. The prototype pipeline uses a blocked Metropolis Hastings algorithm to alternatingly fit to a population of ultra compact galactic binaries, known ``verification binaries'' already identified by electromagnetic observations, a population of massive black hole mergers, and an instrument noise model. The Global LISA Analysis Software Suite (GLASS) is assembled from independently developed samplers for the different model components. The modular design enables flexibility to future development by defining standard interfaces for adding new, or updating additional, components to the global fit without being overly prescriptive for how those modules must be internally designed. The GLASS pipeline is demonstrated on data simulated for the LISA Data Challenge 2b. Results of the analysis and a road-map for continued development are described in detail., Comment: 23 pages, 21 figures, submitted to Phys Rev D

The increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors has brought about an increase in the rate of astrophysical signal detections as well as the rate of "glitches"; transient and non-Gaussian detector noise. Temporal overlap of signals and glitches in the detector presents a challenge for inference analyses that typically assume the presence of only Gaussian detector noise. In this study we perform an extensive exploration of the efficacy of a recently proposed method that models the glitch with sine-Gaussian wavelets while simultaneously modeling the signal with compact-binary waveform templates. We explore a wide range of glitch families and signal morphologies and demonstrate that the joint modeling of glitches and signals (with wavelets and templates respectively) can reliably separate the two. We find that the glitches that most affect parameter estimation are also the glitches that are well modeled by such wavelets due to their compact time-frequency signature. As a further test, we investigate the robustness of this analysis against waveform systematics like those arising from the exclusion of higher-order modes and spin-precession effects. Our analysis provides an estimate of the signal parameters; the glitch waveform to be subtracted from the data; and an assessment of whether some detected excess power consists of a glitch, signal, or both. We analyze the low-significance triggers (191225_215715 and 200114_020818) and find that they are both consistent with glitches overlapping high-mass signals., Comment: 26 pages, 25 figures, 7 tables, updating after acceptance to PRD

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect and characterize $\sim10^4$ Galactic Binaries consisting predominantly of two White Dwarfs (WD). An interesting prospect within this population is a third object--another WD star, a Circumbinary Exoplanet (CBP), or a Brown Dwarf (BD)--in orbit about the inner WD pair. We present the first fully Bayesian detection and posterior analysis of sub-stellar objects with LISA, focusing on the characterization of CBPs. We used an optimistic astrophysically motivated catalogue of these CBP third-body sources, including their orbital eccentricity around the inner binary for the first time. We examined Bayesian Evidence computations for detectability, as well as the effects on the posterior distributions for both the inner binary parameters and the third-body parameters. We find that the posterior behavior bifurcates based on whether the third-body period is above or below half the observation time. Additionally, we find that undetectable third-body sources can bias the inner binary parameters whether or not the correct template is used. We used the information retrieved from the study of the CBP population to make an initial conservative prediction for the number of detectable BD systems in the original catalogue. We end with commentary on the predicted qualitative effects on LISA global fitting and Galactic Binary population analysis. The procedure used in this work is generic and can be directly applied to other astrophysical effects expected within the Galactic Binary population., Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, 1 table

The upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect a large gravitational-wave foreground of Galactic white dwarf binaries. These sources are exceptional for their probable detection at electromagnetic wavelengths, some long before LISA flies. Studies in both gravitational and electromagnetic waves will yield strong constraints on system parameters not achievable through measurements of one messenger alone. In this work, we present a Bayesian inference pipeline and simulation suite in which we study potential constraints on binaries in a variety of configurations. We show how using LISA detections and parameter estimation can significantly improve constraints on system parameters when used as a prior for the electromagnetic analyses. We also provide rules of thumb for how current measurements will benefit from LISA measurements in the future., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted to MNRAS

The science objectives of the LISA mission have been defined under the implicit assumption of a 4 yr continuous data stream. Based on the performance of LISA Pathfinder, it is now expected that LISA will have a duty cycle of $\approx 0.75$, which would reduce the effective span of usable data to 3 yr. This paper reports the results of a study by the LISA Science Group, which was charged with assessing the additional science return of increasing the mission lifetime. We explore various observational scenarios to assess the impact of mission duration on the main science objectives of the mission. We find that the science investigations most affected by mission duration concern the search for seed black holes at cosmic dawn, as well as the study of stellar-origin black holes and of their formation channels via multi-band and multi-messenger observations. We conclude that an extension to 6 yr of mission operations is recommended., Comment: 50 pages, 19 figures, 5 tables. Matches version published in GERG

Laser frequency noise (LFN) is the dominant source of noise expected in the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission, at $\sim$7 orders of magnitude greater than the typical signal expected from gravitational waves (GWs). Time-delay interferometry (TDI) suppresses LFN to an acceptable level by linearly combining measurements from individual spacecraft delayed by durations that correspond to their relative separations. Knowledge of the delay durations is crucial for TDI effectiveness. The work reported here extends upon previous studies using data-driven methods for inferring the delays during the post-processing of raw phasemeter data, also known as TDI ranging (TDIR). Our TDIR analysis uses Bayesian methods designed to ultimately be included in the LISA data model as part of a "Global Fit" analysis pipeline. Including TDIR as part of the Global Fit produces GW inferences which are marginalized over uncertainty in the spacecraft separations and allows for independent estimation of the spacecraft orbits. We demonstrate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inferences of the six time-independent delays required in the rigidly rotating approximation of the spacecraft configuration (TDI 1.5) using simulated data. The MCMC uses fractional delay interpolation (FDI) to digitally delay the raw phase meter data, and we study the sensitivity of the analysis to the filter length. Varying levels of complexity in the noise covariance matrix are also examined. Delay estimations are found to result in LFN suppression well below the level of secondary noises and constraints on the armlengths to $\mathcal{O}(30)\ {\rm cm}$ over the ${\sim}2.5\ {\rm Gm}$ baseline., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted to Physical Review D. Minor revisions in text from initial submission

Gravitational waves in general relativity contain two polarization degrees of freedom, commonly labeled plus and cross. Besides those two tensor modes, generic theories of gravity predict up to four additional polarization modes: two scalar and two vector. Detection of nontensorial modes in gravitational wave data would constitute a clean signature of physics beyond general relativity. Previous measurements have pointed to the unambiguous presence of tensor modes in gravitational waves, but the presence of additional generic nontensorial modes has not been directly tested. We propose a model-independent analysis capable of detecting and characterizing mixed tensor and nontensor components in transient gravitational wave signals, including those from compact binary coalescences. This infrastructure can constrain the presence of scalar or vector polarization modes on top of the tensor modes predicted by general relativity. Our analysis is morphology-independent (as it does not rely on a waveform templates), phase-coherent, and agnostic about the source sky location. We apply our analysis to data from GW190521 and simulated data and demonstrate that it is capable of placing upper limits on the strength of nontensorial modes when none are present, or characterizing their morphology in the case of a positive detection. Tests of the polarization content of a transient gravitational wave signal hinge on an extended detector network, wherein each detector observes a different linear combination of polarization modes. We therefore anticipate that our analysis will yield precise polarization constraints in the coming years, as the current ground-based detectors LIGO Hanford, LIGO Livingston, and Virgo are joined by KAGRA and LIGO India., Comment: 19 pages, 15 figures, published version

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission, scheduled for launch in the early 2030s, is a gravitational wave observatory in space designed to detect sources emitting in the milli-Hertz band. In contrast to the present ground based detectors, the LISA data are expected to be a signaldominated, with strong and weak gravitational wave signals overlapping in time and in frequency. Astrophysical population models predict a sufficient number of signals in the LISA band to blend together and form an irresolvable foreground noise. In this work, we present a generic method for characterizing the foreground signals originating from a given astrophysical population of coalescing compact binaries. Assuming idealized detector conditions and perfect data analysis technique capable of identifying and removing the bright sources, we apply an iterative procedure which allows us to predict the different levels of foreground noise.

Transient non-gaussian noise in gravitational wave detectors, commonly referred to as glitches, pose challenges for inference of the astrophysical properties of detected signals when the two are coincident in time. Current analyses aim towards modeling and subtracting the glitches from the data using a flexible, morphology-independent model in terms of sine-gaussian wavelets before the signal source properties are inferred using templates for the compact binary signal. We present a new analysis of gravitational wave data that contain both a signal and glitches by simultaneously modeling the compact binary signal in terms of templates and the instrumental glitches using sine-gaussian wavelets. The model for the glitches is generic and can thus be applied to a wide range of glitch morphologies without any special tuning. The simultaneous modeling of the astrophysical signal with templates allows us to efficiently separate the signal from the glitches, as we demonstrate using simulated signals injected around real O2 glitches in the two LIGO detectors. We show that our new proposed analysis can separate overlapping glitches and signals, estimate the compact binary parameters, and provide ready-to-use glitch-subtracted data for downstream inference analyses., Comment: 9 pages, 15 figures, published version

We describe updates and improvements to the BayesWave gravitational wave transient analysis pipeline, and provide examples of how the algorithm is used to analyze data from ground-based gravitational wave detectors. BayesWave models gravitational wave signals in a morphology-independent manner through a sum of frame functions, such as Morlet-Gabor wavelets or chirplets. BayesWave models the instrument noise using a combination of a parametrized Gaussian noise component and non-stationary and non-Gaussian noise transients. Both the signal model and noise model employ trans-dimensional sampling, with the complexity of the model adapting to the requirements of the data. The flexibility of the algorithm makes it suitable for a variety of analyses, including reconstructing generic unmodeled signals; cross checks against modeled analyses for compact binaries; as well as separating coherent signals from incoherent instrumental noise transients (glitches). The BayesWave model has been extended to account for gravitational wave signals with generic polarization content and the simultaneous presence of signals and glitches in the data. We describe updates in the BayesWave prior distributions, sampling proposals, and burn-in stage that provide significantly improved sampling efficiency. We present standard review checks indicating the robustness and convergence of the BayesWave trans-dimensional sampler., Comment: 19 pages, 16 figures

It is the responsibility of today's scientists, engineers, and educators to inspire and encourage our youth into technical careers that benefit our society. Too often, however, this responsibility is buried beneath daily job demands and the routines of teaching. Space Public Outreach Team (SPOT) programs leverage a train-the-trainer model to empower college students to make meaningful impacts in their local communities by engaging and inspiring younger students through science presentations. SPOT takes advantage of the excitement of space and the natural way college students serve as role models for children. The result is a win-win program for all involved. This paper describes the original Montana SPOT program, presents analyses demonstrating the success of SPOT, gives overviews of program adaptations in West Virginia and with the NANOGrav collaboration, describes how college student presenters are able to share complex topics, and discusses the importance of college student role models. We hope that our experiences with SPOT will help others implement similar strategies in their own communities., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures

We show that for detections of gravitational-wave transients, constraints can be given on physical parameters of the source without using any specific astrophysical models. Relying only on fundamental principles of general relativity, we can set upper limits on the size, mass, and distance of the source solely from characteristics of the observed waveform. If the distance of the source is known from independent (e.g. electromagnetic) observations, we can also set lower limits on the mass and size. As a demonstration, we tested these constraints on binary black hole signals observed by the LIGO and Virgo detectors during their first and second observing runs, as well as on simulated binary black hole and core-collapse supernova signals reconstructed from simulated detector data. We have found that our constraints are valid for all analyzed source types, but their efficiency (namely, how far they are from the true parameter values) strongly depends on the source type, ranging from being in the same order of magnitude to a several orders of magnitude difference. In cases when a gravitational-wave signal is reconstructed without waveform templates and no astrophysical model on the source is available, these constraints provide the only quantitative characterization of the source that can guide the astrophysical modeling process., Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures

Galactic ultra compact binaries are expected to be the dominant source of gravitational waves in the milli-Hertz frequency band. Of the tens of millions of galactic binaries with periods shorter than an hour, it is estimated that a few tens of thousand will be resolved by the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). The unresolved remainder will be the main source of ``noise'' between 1-3 milli-Hertz. Typical galactic binaries are millions of years from merger, and consequently their signals will persist for the the duration of the LISA mission. Extracting tens of thousands of overlapping galactic signals and characterizing the unresolved component is a central challenge in LISA data analysis, and a key contribution to arriving at a global solution that simultaneously fits for all signals in the band. Here we present an end-to-end analysis pipeline for galactic binaries that uses trans-dimensional Bayesian inference to develop a time-evolving catalog of sources as data arrive from the LISA constellation., Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures, submitted to PRD

We present a systematic comparison of the binary black hole (BBH) signal waveform reconstructed by two independent and complementary approaches used in LIGO and Virgo source inference: a template-based analysis, and a morphology-independent analysis. We apply the two approaches to real events and to two sets of simulated observations made by adding simulated BBH signals to LIGO and Virgo detector noise. The first set is representative of the 10 BBH events in the first Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-1). The second set is constructed from a population of BBH systems with total mass and signal strength in the ranges that ground based detectors are typically sensitive. We find that the reconstruction quality of the GWTC-1 events is consistent with the results of both sets of simulated signals. We also demonstrate a simulated case where the presence of a mismodelled effect in the observed signal, namely higher order modes, can be identified through the morphology-independent analysis. This study is relevant for currently progressing and future observational runs by LIGO and Virgo., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures

The short-period eclipsing binary ZTFJ1539+5027 discovered by Burdge et al. (2019) will be a strong gravitational-wave source for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We study how well LISA will constrain the parameters of this system by analyzing simulated gravitational wave data, and find that LISA observations will significantly improve measurements of the distance and inclination of the source, and allow for novel constraints to be placed on the speed of gravity., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. v2 updated Fig 3, added missing references. Accepted in ApJL

Estimating the parameters of gravitational wave signals detected by ground-based detectors requires an understanding of the properties of the detectors' noise. In particular, the most commonly used likelihood function for gravitational wave data analysis assumes that the noise is Gaussian, stationary, and of known frequency-dependent variance. The variance of the colored Gaussian noise is used as a whitening filter on the data before computation of the likelihood function. In practice the noise variance is not known and it evolves over timescales of dozens of seconds to minutes. We study two methods for estimating this whitening filter for ground-based gravitational wave detectors with the goal of performing parameter estimation studies. The first method uses large amounts of data separated from the specific segment we wish to analyze and computes the power spectral density of the noise through the mean-median Welch method. The second method uses the same data segment as the parameter estimation analysis, which potentially includes a gravitational wave signal, and obtains the whitening filter through a fit of the power spectrum of the data in terms of a sum of splines and Lorentzians. We compare these two methods and argue that the latter is more reliable for gravitational wave parameter estimation., Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, final published version

Short-period (P<1 hour) white dwarf binaries will be the most numerous sources for the space-based gravitational wave detector LISA. Based on thousands of resolved systems, we will be able to constrain binary evolution and provide a new map of the Milky Way and its surroundings. Here we predict the main properties of populations of different types of detached white dwarf binaries detected by LISA. For the first time, we combine a high-resolution cosmological simulation of a Milky Way-mass galaxy (from the FIRE project) with a binary population synthesis model for low and intermediate mass stars. Our model therefore provides a cosmologically realistic star formation and metallicity history for the galaxy and naturally produces its different components such as the thin and thick disk, the bulge, the stellar halo, and satellite galaxies and streams. With the simulation, we show how different galactic components contribute differently to the gravitational wave signal, due to their typical age and distance distributions. We find that the dominant LISA sources will be He-He systems and He-CO systems with important contributions from the thick disk and bulge but also a few systems in the stellar halo. The resulting sky map of the sources is different from previous models, with important consequences for the searches for electromagnetic counterparts and data analysis. We also emphasize that much of the science-enabling information regarding white dwarf binaries, such as the chirp mass and the sky localisation, becomes increasingly rich with long observations, including an extended mission up to 8 years., Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures, submitted to MNRAS. Comments are welcome

The zodiacal dust complex, a population of dust and small particles that pervades the Solar System, provides important insight into the formation and dynamics of planets, comets, asteroids, and other bodies. Here we present a new set of data obtained using a novel technique: direct measurements of momentum transfer to a spacecraft from individual particle impacts. This technique is made possible by the extreme precision of the instruments flown on the LISA Pathfinder spacecraft, a technology demonstrator for a future space-based gravitational wave observatory that operated near the first Sun-Earth Lagrange point from early 2016 through Summer of 2017. Using a simple model of the impacts and knowledge of the control system, we show that it is possible to detect impacts and measure properties such as the transferred momentum (related to the particle's mass and velocity), direction of travel, and location of impact on the spacecraft. In this paper, we present the results of a systematic search for impacts during 4348 hours of Pathfinder data. We report a total of 54 candidates with momenta ranging from 0.2$\,\mu\textrm{Ns}$ to 230$\,\mu\textrm{Ns}$. We furthermore make a comparison of these candidates with models of micrometeoroid populations in the inner solar system including those resulting from Jupiter-family comets, Oort-cloud comets, Hailey-type comets, and Asteroids. We find that our measured population is consistent with a population dominated by Jupiter-family comets with some evidence for a smaller contribution from Hailey-type comets. This is in agreement with consensus models of the zodiacal dust complex in the momentum range sampled by LISA Pathfinder., Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures, accepted in ApJ

In this document, we detail the improvements made to the Fermi GBM targeted sub-threshold search for counterparts to LIGO/Virgo gravitational-wave triggers. We describe the implemented changes and compare the sensitivity of the O3 search to that of the version of the search that operated during O2. Overall, we have improved both the sensitivity and speed of the targeted search. Further improvements to the search have been made for the O3b observing run, including automated upperlimits estimation and incorporating the updated localization systematic with the new version of the search., Comment: Updates and improvements for operations during LIGO/Virgo O3b. New sections on upper limits calculation, localization systematic uncertainty in the search, and a case study on the sub-threshold candidate during O3a: Fermi GBM-190816

We present a detailed investigation into the properties of GW170729, the gravitational wave with the most massive and distant source confirmed to date. We employ an extensive set of waveform models, including new improved models that incorporate the effect of higher-order waveform modes which are particularly important for massive systems. We find no indication of spin-precession, but the inclusion of higher-order modes in the models results in an improved estimate for the mass ratio of $(0.3-0.8)$ at the 90\% credible level. Our updated measurement excludes equal masses at that level. We also find that models with higher-order modes lead to the data being more consistent with a smaller effective spin, with the probability that the effective spin is greater than zero being reduced from $99\%$ to $94\%$. The 90\% credible interval for the effective spin parameter is now $(-0.01-0.50)$. Additionally, the recovered signal-to-noise ratio increases by $\sim0.3$ units compared to analyses without higher-order modes. We study the effect of common spin priors on the derived spin and mass measurements, and observe small shifts in the spins, while the masses remain unaffected. We argue that our conclusions are robust against systematic errors in the waveform models. We also compare the above waveform-based analysis which employs compact-binary waveform models to a more flexible wavelet- and chirplet-based analysis. We find consistency between the two, with overlaps of $\sim 0.9$, typical of what is expected from simulations of signals similar to GW170729, confirming that the data are well-described by the existing waveform models. Finally, we study the possibility that the primary component of GW170729 was the remnant of a past merger of two black holes and find this scenario to be indistinguishable from the standard formation scenario., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, final published version, samples available at https://git.ligo.org/katerina.chatziioannou/gw170729hm_datarelease

Ultra-compact binaries (UCBs) are systems containing compact or degenerate stars with orbital periods less than one hour. Tens of millions of UCBs are predicted to exist within theGalaxy emitting gravitational waves (GWs) at mHz frequencies. Combining GW searches with electromagnetic (EM) surveys like Gaia and LSST will yield a comprehensive, multimessenger catalog of UCBs in the galaxy. Joint EM and GW observations enable measurements of masses, radii, and orbital dynamics far beyond what can be achieved by independent EM or GW studies. GW+EM surveys of UCBs in the galaxy will yield a trove of unique insights into the nature of white dwarfs, the formation of compact objects, dynamical interactions in binaries, and energetic, accretion-driven phenomena like Type Ia superonovae., Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, submitted to the Astro2020 call for science white papers

The LIGO/Virgo gravitational-wave (GW) interferometers have to-date detected ten merging black hole (BH) binaries, some with masses considerably larger than had been anticipated. Stellar-mass BH binaries at the high end of the observed mass range (with "chirp mass" ${\cal M} \gtrsim 25 M_{\odot}$) should be detectable by a space-based GW observatory years before those binaries become visible to ground-based GW detectors. This white paper discusses some of the synergies that result when the same binaries are observed by instruments in space and on the ground. We consider intermediate-mass black hole binaries (with total mass $M \sim 10^2 -10^4 M_{\odot}$) as well as stellar-mass black hole binaries. We illustrate how combining space-based and ground-based data sets can break degeneracies and thereby improve our understanding of the binary's physical parameters. While early work focused on how space-based observatories can forecast precisely when some mergers will be observed on the ground, the reverse is also important: ground-based detections will allow us to "dig deeper" into archived, space-based data to confidently identify black hole inspirals whose signal-to-noise ratios were originally sub-threshold, increasing the number of binaries observed in both bands by a factor of $\sim 4 - 7$., Comment: White Paper submitted to Astro2020 (2020 Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics)

Low-frequency gravitational-wave astronomy can perform precision tests of general relativity and probe fundamental physics in a regime previously inaccessible. A space-based detector will be a formidable tool to explore gravity's role in the cosmos, potentially telling us if and where Einstein's theory fails and providing clues about some of the greatest mysteries in physics and astronomy, such as dark matter and the origin of the Universe., Comment: White Paper submitted on March 7, 2019 to Astro2020 (2020 Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics)

The observation of low-frequency gravitational waves with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna will allow the study of new sources of gravitational radiation that are not accessible by ground-based instruments. Gravitational wave sources provide invaluable information both about their astrophysics, as well as the nature of the gravitational interaction in their neighborhoods. One low frequency source that has not received much attention regarding the latter are galactic binaries composed of two white dwarves or a white dwarf and a neutron star. We here show that, contrary to the common lore, such gravitational wave sources can indeed be used to constrain an important feature of the gravitational interaction: the absence of pre-Newtonian, dipolar dissipation. We propose a model-independent framework to carry out a null test for the presence of this feature in the data that is very much analogous to tests of General Relativity with radio-observations of binary pulsars. We then go one step further and specialize this test to scalar-tensor theories to derive projected constraints on spontaneous scalarization. We find that these constraints can be comparable to current bounds with binary pulsars, and in some optimistic cases, they can be even stronger., Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, submitted to CQG

In the coming years gravitational-wave detectors will undergo a series of improvements, with an increase in their detection rate by about an order of magnitude. Routine detections of gravitational-wave signals promote novel astrophysical and fundamental theory studies, while simultaneously leading to an increase in the number of detections temporally overlapping with instrumentally- or environmentally-induced transients in the detectors (glitches), often of unknown origin. Indeed, this was the case for the very first detection by the LIGO and Virgo detectors of a gravitational-wave signal consistent with a binary neutron star coalescence, GW170817. A loud glitch in the LIGO-Livingston detector, about one second before the merger, hampered coincident detection (which was initially achieved solely with LIGO-Hanford data). Moreover, accurate source characterization depends on specific assumptions about the behavior of the detector noise that are rendered invalid by the presence of glitches. In this paper, we present the various techniques employed for the initial mitigation of the glitch to perform source characterization of GW170817 and study advantages and disadvantages of each mitigation method. We show that, despite the presence of instrumental noise transients louder than the one affecting GW170817, we are still able to produce unbiased measurements of the intrinsic parameters from simulated injections with properties similar to GW170817., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, accepted in PRD

In the mHz gravitational-wave band, galactic ultra-compact binaries (UCBs) are continuous sources emitting at near-constant frequency. The signals from many of these galactic binaries will be sufficiently strong to be detectable by the \emph{Laser Interferometer Space Antenna} (LISA) after ${\sim}\mathcal{O}(1\ \text{week})$ of observing. In addition to their astrophysical value, these UCBs can be used to monitor the data quality of the observatory. This paper demonstrates the capabilities of galactic UCBs to be used as calibration sources for LISA by demanding signal coherence between adjacent week-long data segments separated by a gap in time of \emph{a priori} unknown duration. A parameter for the gap duration is added to the UCB waveform model and used in a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm simultaneously fitting for the astrophysical source parameters. Results from measurements of several UCBs are combined to produce a joint posterior on the gap duration. The measurement accuracy's dependence on how much is known about the UCBs through prior observing, and seasonal variations due to the LISA orbital motion, is quantified. The duration of data gaps in a two-week segment of data can be constrained to within \stmo\ using {$\mathcal{O}(10)$} UCBs after one month of observing. The timing accuracy from UCBs improves to \styr\ after 1 year of mission operations. These results are robust to within a factor of ${\sim}2$ when taking into account seasonal variations., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, submitted to PRD

The LIGO-Virgo collaboration uses a variety of techniques to detect and characterize gravitational waves. One approach is to use templates - models for the signals derived from Einstein's equations. Another approach is to extract the signals directly from the coherent response of the detectors in LIGO-Virgo network. Both approaches played an important role in the first gravitational wave detections. Here we extend the BayesWave analysis algorithm, which reconstructs gravitational wave signals using a collection of continuous wavelets, to use a generalized wavelet family, known as chirplets, that have time-evolving frequency content. Since generic gravitational wave signals have frequency content that evolves in time, a collection of chirplets provides a more compact representation of the signal, resulting in more accurate waveform reconstructions, especially for low signal-to-noise events, and events that occupy a large time-frequency volume., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures

We present a robust method to characterize the gravitational wave emission from the remnant of a neutron star coalescence. Our approach makes only minimal assumptions about the morphology of the signal and provides a full posterior probability distribution of the underlying waveform. We apply our method on simulated data from a network of advanced ground-based detectors and demonstrate the gravitational wave signal reconstruction. We study the reconstruction quality for different binary configurations and equations of state for the colliding neutron stars. We show how our method can be used to constrain the yet-uncertain equation of state of neutron star matter. The constraints on the equation of state we derive are complimentary to measurements of the tidal deformation of the colliding neutron stars during the late inspiral phase. In the case of a non-detection of a post-merger signal following a binary neutron star inspiral we show that we can place upper limits on the energy emitted., Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, final published version

We provide a comprehensive multi-aspect study on the performance of a pipeline used by the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration for estimating parameters of gravitational-wave bursts. We add simulated signals with four different morphologies (sine-Gaussians, Gaussians, white-noise bursts, and binary black hole signals) to simulated noise samples representing noise of the two Advanced LIGO detectors during their first observing run. We recover them with the BayesWave (BW) pipeline to study its accuracy in sky localization, waveform reconstruction, and estimation of model-independent waveform parameters. BW localizes sources with a level of accuracy comparable for all four morphologies, with the median separation of actual and estimated sky locations ranging from 25.1$^{\circ}$ to 30.3$^{\circ}$. This is a reasonable accuracy in the two-detector case, and is comparable to accuracies of other localization methods studied previously. As BW reconstructs generic transient signals with sine-Gaussian wavelets, it is unsurprising that BW performs the best in reconstructing sine-Gaussian and Gaussian waveforms. BW's accuracy in waveform reconstruction increases steeply with network signal-to-noise ratio (SNR$_{\rm net}$), reaching a $85\%$ and $95\%$ match between the reconstructed and actual waveform below SNR$_{\rm net} \approx 20$ and SNR$_{\rm net} \approx 50$, respectively, for all morphologies. BW's accuracy in estimating central moments of waveforms is only limited by statistical errors in the frequency domain, and is affected by systematic errors too in the time domain as BW cannot reconstruct low-amplitude parts of signals overwhelmed by noise. The figures of merit we introduce can be used in future characterizations of parameter estimation pipelines., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures

(abridged for arXiv) With the first direct detection of gravitational waves, the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) has initiated a new field of astronomy by providing an alternate means of sensing the universe. The extreme sensitivity required to make such detections is achieved through exquisite isolation of all sensitive components of LIGO from non-gravitational-wave disturbances. Nonetheless, LIGO is still susceptible to a variety of instrumental and environmental sources of noise that contaminate the data. Of particular concern are noise features known as glitches, which are transient and non-Gaussian in their nature, and occur at a high enough rate so that accidental coincidence between the two LIGO detectors is non-negligible. In this paper we describe an innovative project that combines crowdsourcing with machine learning to aid in the challenging task of categorizing all of the glitches recorded by the LIGO detectors. Through the Zooniverse platform, we engage and recruit volunteers from the public to categorize images of glitches into pre-identified morphological classes and to discover new classes that appear as the detectors evolve. In addition, machine learning algorithms are used to categorize images after being trained on human-classified examples of the morphological classes. Leveraging the strengths of both classification methods, we create a combined method with the aim of improving the efficiency and accuracy of each individual classifier. The resulting classification and characterization should help LIGO scientists to identify causes of glitches and subsequently eliminate them from the data or the detector entirely, thereby improving the rate and accuracy of gravitational-wave observations. We demonstrate these methods using a small subset of data from LIGO's first observing run., Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, 1 table

Among the most eagerly anticipated opportunities made possible by Advanced LIGO/Virgo are multimessenger observations of compact mergers. Optical counterparts may be short-lived so rapid characterization of gravitational wave (GW) events is paramount for discovering electromagnetic signatures. One way to meet the demand for rapid GW parameter estimation is to trade off accuracy for speed, using waveform models with simplified treatment of the compact objects' spin. We report on the systematic errors in GW parameter estimation suffered when using different spin approximations to recover generic signals. Component mass measurements can be biased by $>5\sigma$ using simple-precession waveforms and in excess of $20\sigma$ when non-spinning templates are employed. This suggests that electromagnetic observing campaigns should not take a strict approach to selecting which LIGO/Virgo candidates warrant follow-up observations based on low-latency mass estimates. For sky localization, we find searched areas are up to a factor of ${\sim}$2 larger for non-spinning analyses, and are systematically larger for any of the simplified waveforms considered in our analysis. Distance biases for the non-precessing waveforms can be in excess of 100\% and are largest when the spin angular momenta are in the orbital plane of the binary. We confirm that spin-aligned waveforms should be used for low-latency parameter estimation at the minimum. Including simple precession, though more computationally costly, mitigates biases except for signals with extreme precession effects. Our results shine a spotlight on the critical need for development of computationally inexpensive precessing waveforms and/or massively parallel algorithms for parameter estimation., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, Accepted by ApJ (February 3, 2016)

With the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors taking observations the detection of gravitational waves is expected within the next few years. Extracting astrophysical information from gravitational wave detections is a well-posed problem and thoroughly studied when detailed models for the waveforms are available. However, one motivation for the field of gravitational wave astronomy is the potential for new discoveries. Recognizing and characterizing unanticipated signals requires data analysis techniques which do not depend on theoretical predictions for the gravitational waveform. Past searches for short-duration un-modeled gravitational wave signals have been hampered by transient noise artifacts, or "glitches," in the detectors. In some cases, even high signal-to-noise simulated astrophysical signals have proven difficult to distinguish from glitches, so that essentially any plausible signal could be detected with at most 2-3 $\sigma$ level confidence. We have put forth the BayesWave algorithm to differentiate between generic gravitational wave transients and glitches, and to provide robust waveform reconstruction and characterization of the astrophysical signals. Here we study BayesWave's capabilities for rejecting glitches while assigning high confidence to detection candidates through analytic approximations to the Bayesian evidence. Analytic results are tested with numerical experiments by adding simulated gravitational wave transient signals to LIGO data collected between 2009 and 2010 and found to be in good agreement., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, submitted to PRD

The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves (GWs) may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to have strong performance, and in particular, allows high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two detector network., Comment: 9 pages, 11 figures. This draft was accepted by PRD

Gravitational waves from coalescing binary black holes encode the evolution of their spins prior to merger. In the post-Newtonian regime and on the precession timescale, this evolution has one of three morphologies, with the spins either librating around one of two fixed points ("resonances") or circulating freely. In this work we perform full parameter estimation on resonant binaries with fixed masses and spin magnitudes, changing three parameters: a conserved "projected effective spin" $\xi$ and resonant family $\Delta\Phi=0,\pi$ (which uniquely label the source), the inclination $\theta_{JN}$ of the binary's total angular momentum with respect to the line of sight (which determines the strength of precessional effects in the waveform), and the signal amplitude. We demonstrate that resonances can be distinguished for a wide range of binaries, except for highly symmetric configurations where precessional effects are suppressed. Motivated by new insight into double-spin evolution, we introduce new variables to characterize precessing black hole binaries which naturally reflects the timescale separation of the system and therefore better encode the dynamical information carried by gravitational waves., Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures

Reliable low-latency gravitational wave parameter estimation is essential to target limited electromagnetic followup facilities toward astrophysically interesting and electromagnetically relevant sources of gravitational waves. In this study, we examine the tradeoff between speed and accuracy. Specifically, we estimate the astrophysical relevance of systematic errors in the posterior parameter distributions derived using a fast-but-approximate waveform model, SpinTaylorF2 (STF2), in parameter estimation with lalinference_mcmc. Though efficient, the STF2 approximation to compact binary inspiral employs approximate kinematics (e.g., a single spin) and an approximate waveform (e.g., frequency domain versus time domain). More broadly, using a large astrophysically-motivated population of generic compact binary merger signals, we report on the effectualness and limitations of this single-spin approximation as a method to infer parameters of generic compact binary sources. For most low-mass compact binary sources, we find that the STF2 approximation estimates compact binary parameters with biases comparable to systematic uncertainties in the waveform. We illustrate by example the effect these systematic errors have on posterior probabilities most relevant to low-latency electromagnetic followup: whether the secondary is has a mass consistent with a neutron star; whether the masses, spins, and orbit are consistent with that neutron star's tidal disruption; and whether the binary's angular momentum axis is oriented along the line of sight., Comment: Submitted to PRD. (12 pages, 9 figures)