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The selection of best variables is a challenging problem in supervised and unsupervised learning, especially in high-dimensional contexts where the number of variables is usually much larger than the number of observations. In this paper, we focus on two multivariate statistical methods: principal components analysis and partial least squares. Both approaches are popular linear dimension-reduction methods with numerous applications in several fields including in genomics, biology, environmental science, and engineering. In particular, these approaches build principal components, new variables that are combinations of all the original variables. A main drawback of principal components is the difficulty to interpret them when the number of variables is large. To define principal components from the most relevant variables, we propose to cast the best subset solution path method into principal component analysis and partial least square frameworks. We offer a new alternative by exploiting a continuous optimization algorithm for best subset solution path. Empirical studies show the efficacy of our approach for providing the best subset solution path. The usage of our algorithm is further exposed through the analysis of two real data sets. The first data set is analyzed using the principle component analysis while the analysis of the second data set is based on partial least square framework., (© 2024 Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)

In practical survival analysis, the situation of no event for a patient can arise even after a long period of waiting time, which means a portion of the population may never experience the event of interest. Under this circumstance, one remedy is to adopt a mixture cure Cox model to analyze the survival data. However, if there clearly exhibits an acceleration (or deceleration) factor among their survival times, then an accelerated failure time (AFT) model will be preferred, leading to a mixture cure AFT model. In this paper, we consider a penalized likelihood method to estimate the mixture cure semiparametric AFT models, where the unknown baseline hazard is approximated using Gaussian basis functions. We allow partly interval-censored survival data which can include event times and left-, right-, and interval-censoring times. The penalty function helps to achieve a smooth estimate of the baseline hazard function. We will also provide asymptotic properties to the estimates so that inferences can be made on regression parameters and hazard-related quantities. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the model performance, which includes a comparative study with an existing method from the smcure R package. The results show that our proposed penalized likelihood method has acceptable performance in general and produces less bias when faced with the identifiability issue compared to smcure. To illustrate the application of our method, a real case study involving melanoma recurrence is conducted and reported. Our model is implemented in our R package aftQnp which is available from https://github.com/Isabellee4555/aftQnP., (© 2024 Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)

Hyperspectral imaging for fluorescence-guided brain tumor resection improves visualization of tissue differences, which can ameliorate patient outcomes. However, current methods do not effectively correct for heterogeneous optical and geometric tissue properties, leading to less accurate results. We propose two deep learning models for correction and unmixing that can capture these effects. While one is trained with protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) concentration labels, the other is semi-supervised. The models were evaluated on phantom and pig brain data with known PpIX concentration; the supervised and semi-supervised models achieved Pearson correlation coefficients (phantom, pig brain) between known and computed PpIX concentrations of (0.997, 0.990) and (0.98, 0.91), respectively. The classical approach achieved (0.93, 0.82). The semi-supervised approach also generalizes better to human data, achieving a 36% lower false-positive rate for PpIX detection and giving qualitatively more realistic results than existing methods. These results show promise for using deep learning to improve hyperspectral fluorescence-guided neurosurgery., Competing Interests: E.S.M. received research support from Carl Zeiss Meditec AG. W.S. has received speaker and consultant fees from SBI ALA Pharma, medac, Carl Zeiss Meditec AG, NXDC, and research support from Zeiss., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Through spectral unmixing, hyperspectral imaging (HSI) in fluorescence-guided brain tumor surgery has enabled the detection and classification of tumor regions invisible to the human eye. Prior unmixing work has focused on determining a minimal set of viable fluorophore spectra known to be present in the brain and effectively reconstructing human data without overfitting. With these endmembers, non-negative least squares regression (NNLS) was commonly used to compute the abundances. However, HSI images are heterogeneous, so one small set of endmember spectra may not fit all pixels well. Additionally, NNLS is the maximum likelihood estimator only if the measurement is normally distributed, and it does not enforce sparsity, which leads to overfitting and unphysical results. In this paper, we analyzed 555666 HSI fluorescence spectra from 891 ex vivo measurements of patients with various brain tumors to show that a Poisson distribution indeed models the measured data 82% better than a Gaussian in terms of the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and that the endmember abundance vectors are sparse. With this knowledge, we introduce (1) a library of 9 endmember spectra, including PpIX (620 nm and 634 nm photostates), NADH, FAD, flavins, lipofuscin, melanin, elastin, and collagen, (2) a sparse, non-negative Poisson regression algorithm to perform physics-informed unmixing with this library without overfitting, and (3) a highly realistic spectral measurement simulation with known endmember abundances. The new unmixing method was then tested on the human and simulated data and compared to four other candidate methods. It outperforms previous methods with 25% lower error in the computed abundances on the simulated data than NNLS, lower reconstruction error on human data, better sparsity, and 31 times faster runtime than state-of-the-art Poisson regression. This method and library of endmember spectra can enable more accurate spectral unmixing to aid the surgeon better during brain tumor resection., Competing Interests: Eric Suero Molina received research support from Carl Zeiss Meditec AG. Walter Stummer has received speaker and consultant fees from SBI ALA Pharma, medac, Carl Zeiss Meditec AG, and NXDC, as well as research support from Zeiss. None of the other authors have any competing interests., (© 2024 Optica Publishing Group.)

We present a gentle introduction to elementary mathematical notation with the focus of communicating deep learning principles. This is a "math crash course" aimed at quickly enabling scientists with understanding of the building blocks used in many equations, formulas, and algorithms that describe deep learning. While this short presentation cannot replace solid mathematical knowledge that needs multiple courses and years to solidify, our aim is to allow nonmathematical readers to overcome hurdles of reading texts that also use such mathematical notation. We describe a few basic deep learning models using mathematical notation before we unpack the meaning of the notation. In particular, this text includes an informal introduction to summations, sets, functions, vectors, matrices, gradients, and a few more objects that are often used to describe deep learning. While this is a mathematical crash course, our presentation is kept in the context of deep learning and machine learning models including the sigmoid model, the softmax model, and fully connected feedforward deep neural networks. We also hint at basic mathematical objects appearing in neural networks for images and text data., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Breast cancer (BC) risk is suspected to be linked to thyroid disorders, however observational studies exploring the association between BC and thyroid disorders gave conflicting results. We proposed an alternative approach by investigating the shared genetic risk factors between BC and several thyroid traits. We report a positive genetic correlation between BC and thyroxine (FT4) levels (corr = 0.13, p-value = 2.0 × 10-4) and a negative genetic correlation between BC and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels (corr = -0.09, p-value = 0.03). These associations are more striking when restricting the analysis to estrogen receptor-positive BC. Moreover, the polygenic risk scores (PRS) for FT4 and hyperthyroidism are positively associated to BC risk (OR = 1.07, 95%CI: 1.00-1.13, p-value = 2.8 × 10-2 and OR = 1.04, 95%CI: 1.00-1.08, p-value = 3.8 × 10-2, respectively), while the PRS for TSH is inversely associated to BC risk (OR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.89-0.97, p-value = 2.0 × 10-3). Using the PLACO method, we detected 49 loci associated to both BC and thyroid traits (p-value < 5 × 10-8), in the vicinity of 130 genes. An additional colocalization and gene-set enrichment analyses showed a convincing causal role for a known pleiotropic locus at 2q35 and revealed an additional one at 8q22.1 associated to both BC and thyroid cancer. We also found two new pleiotropic loci at 14q32.33 and 17q21.31 that were associated to both TSH levels and BC risk. Enrichment analyses and evidence of regulatory signals also highlighted brain tissues and immune system as candidates for obtaining associations between BC and TSH levels. Overall, our study sheds light on the complex interplay between BC and thyroid traits and provides evidence of shared genetic risk between those conditions., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Cross-phenotype association using gene-set analysis can help to detect pleiotropic genes and inform about common mechanisms between diseases. Although there are an increasing number of statistical methods for exploring pleiotropy, there is a lack of proper pipelines to apply gene-set analysis in this context and using genome-scale data in a reasonable running time. We designed a user-friendly pipeline to perform cross-phenotype gene-set analysis between two traits using GCPBayes, a method developed by our team. All analyses could be performed automatically by calling for different scripts in a simple way (using a Shiny app, Bash or R script). A Shiny application was also developed to create different plots to visualize outputs from GCPBayes. Finally, a comprehensive and step-by-step tutorial on how to use the pipeline is provided in our group's GitHub page. We illustrated the application on publicly available GWAS (genome-wide association studies) summary statistics data to identify breast cancer and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes. We have shown that the GCPBayes pipeline could extract pleiotropic genes previously mentioned in the literature, while it also provided new pleiotropic genes and regions that are worthwhile for further investigation. We have also provided some recommendations about parameter selection for decreasing computational time of GCPBayes on genome-scale data., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of NAR Genomics and Bioinformatics.)

Real-time monitoring using in-situ sensors is becoming a common approach for measuring water-quality within watersheds. High-frequency measurements produce big datasets that present opportunities to conduct new analyses for improved understanding of water-quality dynamics and more effective management of rivers and streams. Of primary importance is enhancing knowledge of the relationships between nitrate, one of the most reactive forms of inorganic nitrogen in the aquatic environment, and other water-quality variables. We analysed high-frequency water-quality data from in-situ sensors deployed in three sites from different watersheds and climate zones within the National Ecological Observatory Network, USA. We used generalised additive mixed models to explain the nonlinear relationships at each site between nitrate concentration and conductivity, turbidity, dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and elevation. Temporal auto-correlation was modelled with an auto-regressive-moving-average (ARIMA) model and we examined the relative importance of the explanatory variables. Total deviance explained by the models was high for all sites (99%). Although variable importance and the smooth regression parameters differed among sites, the models explaining the most variation in nitrate contained the same explanatory variables. This study demonstrates that building a model for nitrate using the same set of explanatory water-quality variables is achievable, even for sites with vastly different environmental and climatic characteristics. Applying such models will assist managers to select cost-effective water-quality variables to monitor when the goals are to gain a spatial and temporal in-depth understanding of nitrate dynamics and adapt management plans accordingly., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Kermorvant et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Compositional data are a special kind of data, represented as a proportion carrying relative information. Although this type of data is widely spread, no solution exists to deal with the cases where the classes are not well balanced. After describing compositional data imbalance, this paper proposes an adaptation of the original Synthetic Minority Oversampling TEchnique (SMOTE) to deal with compositional data imbalance. The new approach, called SMOTE for Compositional Data (SMOTE-CD), generates synthetic examples by computing a linear combination of selected existing data points, using compositional data operations. The performance of the SMOTE-CD is tested with three different regressors (Gradient Boosting tree, Neural Networks, Dirichlet regressor) applied to two real datasets and to synthetic generated data, and the performance is evaluated using accuracy, cross-entropy, F1-score, R2 score and RMSE. The results show improvements across all metrics, but the impact of oversampling on performance varies depending on the model and the data. In some cases, oversampling may lead to a decrease in performance for the majority class. However, for the real data, the best performance across all models is achieved when oversampling is used. Notably, the F1-score is consistently increased with oversampling. Unlike the original technique, the performance is not improved when combining oversampling of the minority classes and undersampling of the majority class. The Python package smote-cd implements the method and is available online., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Nguyen et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified genetic variants associated with multiple complex diseases. We can leverage this phenomenon, known as pleiotropy, to integrate multiple data sources in a joint analysis. Often integrating additional information such as gene pathway knowledge can improve statistical efficiency and biological interpretation. In this article, we propose statistical methods which incorporate both gene pathway and pleiotropy knowledge to increase statistical power and identify important risk variants affecting multiple traits., Methods: We propose novel feature selection methods for the group variable selection in multi-task regression problem. We develop penalised likelihood methods exploiting different penalties to induce structured sparsity at a gene (or pathway) and SNP level across all studies. We implement an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for our penalised regression methods. The performance of our approaches are compared to a subset based meta analysis approach on simulated data sets. A bootstrap sampling strategy is provided to explore the stability of the penalised methods., Results: Our methods are applied to identify potential pleiotropy in an application considering the joint analysis of thyroid and breast cancers. The methods were able to detect eleven potential pleiotropic SNPs and six pathways. A simulation study found that our method was able to detect more true signals than a popular competing method while retaining a similar false discovery rate., Conclusion: We developed feature selection methods for jointly analysing multiple logistic regression tasks where prior grouping knowledge is available. Our method performed well on both simulation studies and when applied to a real data analysis of multiple cancers., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

In situ sensors that collect high-frequency data are used increasingly to monitor aquatic environments. These sensors are prone to technical errors, resulting in unrecorded observations and/or anomalous values that are subsequently removed and create gaps in time series data. We present a framework based on generalized additive and auto-regressive models to recover these missing data. To mimic sporadically missing (i) single observations and (ii) periods of contiguous observations, we randomly removed (i) point data and (ii) day- and week-long sequences of data from a two-year time series of nitrate concentration data collected from Arikaree River, USA, where synoptically collected water temperature, turbidity, conductance, elevation, and dissolved oxygen data were available. In 72% of cases with missing point data, predicted values were within the sensor precision interval of the original value, although predictive ability declined when sequences of missing data occurred. Precision also depended on the availability of other water quality covariates. When covariates were available, even a sudden, event-based peak in nitrate concentration was reconstructed well. By providing a promising method for accurate prediction of missing data, the utility and confidence in summary statistics and statistical trends will increase, thereby assisting the effective monitoring and management of fresh waters and other at-risk ecosystems.

Glycoproteomics is a powerful yet analytically challenging research tool. Software packages aiding the interpretation of complex glycopeptide tandem mass spectra have appeared, but their relative performance remains untested. Conducted through the HUPO Human Glycoproteomics Initiative, this community study, comprising both developers and users of glycoproteomics software, evaluates solutions for system-wide glycopeptide analysis. The same mass spectrometrybased glycoproteomics datasets from human serum were shared with participants and the relative team performance for N- and O-glycopeptide data analysis was comprehensively established by orthogonal performance tests. Although the results were variable, several high-performance glycoproteomics informatics strategies were identified. Deep analysis of the data revealed key performance-associated search parameters and led to recommendations for improved 'high-coverage' and 'high-accuracy' glycoproteomics search solutions. This study concludes that diverse software packages for comprehensive glycopeptide data analysis exist, points to several high-performance search strategies and specifies key variables that will guide future software developments and assist informatics decision-making in glycoproteomics., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Heterogeneous respiratory system static compliance (C RS ) values and levels of hypoxemia in patients with novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) requiring mechanical ventilation have been reported in previous small-case series or studies conducted at a national level., Methods: We designed a retrospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering from the international COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium study to comprehensively describe C RS -calculated as: tidal volume/[airway plateau pressure-positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP)]-and its association with ventilatory management and outcomes of COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilation (MV), admitted to intensive care units (ICU) worldwide., Results: We studied 745 patients from 22 countries, who required admission to the ICU and MV from January 14 to December 31, 2020, and presented at least one value of C RS within the first seven days of MV. Median (IQR) age was 62 (52-71), patients were predominantly males (68%) and from Europe/North and South America (88%). C RS , within 48 h from endotracheal intubation, was available in 649 patients and was neither associated with the duration from onset of symptoms to commencement of MV (p = 0.417) nor with PaO 2 /FiO 2 (p = 0.100). Females presented lower C RS than males (95% CI of C RS difference between females-males: - 11.8 to - 7.4 mL/cmH 2 O p < 0.001), and although females presented higher body mass index (BMI), association of BMI with C RS was marginal (p = 0.139). Ventilatory management varied across C RS range, resulting in a significant association between C RS and driving pressure (estimated decrease - 0.31 cmH 2 O/L per mL/cmH 2 0 of C RS , 95% CI - 0.48 to - 0.14, p < 0.001). Overall, 28-day ICU mortality, accounting for the competing risk of being discharged within the period, was 35.6% (SE 1.7). Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that C RS (+ 10 mL/cm H 2 O) was only associated with being discharge from the ICU within 28 days (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28, p = 0.018)., Conclusions: This multicentre report provides a comprehensive account of C RS in COVID-19 patients on MV. C RS measured within 48 h from commencement of MV has marginal predictive value for 28-day mortality, but was associated with being discharged from ICU within the same period. Trial documentation: Available at https://www.covid-critical.com/study ., Trial Registration: ACTRN12620000421932.

An increasing number of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics is made available to the scientific community. Exploiting these results from multiple phenotypes would permit identification of novel pleiotropic associations. In addition, incorporating prior biological information in GWAS such as group structure information (gene or pathway) has shown some success in classical GWAS approaches. However, this has not been widely explored in the context of pleiotropy. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed GCPBayes) that uses summary-level GWAS data across multiple phenotypes to detect pleiotropy at both group-level (gene or pathway) and within group (eg, at the SNP level). We consider both continuous and Dirac spike and slab priors for group selection. We also use a Bayesian sparse group selection approach with hierarchical spike and slab priors that enables us to select important variables both at the group level and within group. GCPBayes uses a Bayesian statistical framework based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. It can be applied to multiple types of phenotypes for studies with overlapping or nonoverlapping subjects, and takes into account heterogeneity in the effect size and allows for the opposite direction of the genetic effects across traits. Simulations show that the proposed methods outperform benchmark approaches such as ASSET and CPBayes in the ability to retrieve pleiotropic associations at both SNP and gene-levels. To illustrate the GCPBayes method, we investigate the shared genetic effects between thyroid cancer and breast cancer in candidate pathways., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: The increasing number of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has revealed several loci that are associated to multiple distinct phenotypes, suggesting the existence of pleiotropic effects. Highlighting these cross-phenotype genetic associations could help to identify and understand common biological mechanisms underlying some diseases. Common approaches test the association between genetic variants and multiple traits at the SNP level. In this paper, we propose a novel gene- and a pathway-level approach in the case where several independent GWAS on independent traits are available. The method is based on a generalization of the sparse group Partial Least Squares (sgPLS) to take into account groups of variables, and a Lasso penalization that links all independent data sets. This method, called joint-sgPLS, is able to convincingly detect signal at the variable level and at the group level., Results: Our method has the advantage to propose a global readable model while coping with the architecture of data. It can outperform traditional methods and provides a wider insight in terms of a priori information. We compared the performance of the proposed method to other benchmark methods on simulated data and gave an example of application on real data with the aim to highlight common susceptibility variants to breast and thyroid cancers., Conclusion: The joint-sgPLS shows interesting properties for detecting a signal. As an extension of the PLS, the method is suited for data with a large number of variables. The choice of Lasso penalization copes with architectures of groups of variables and observations sets. Furthermore, although the method has been applied to a genetic study, its formulation is adapted to any data with high number of variables and an exposed a priori architecture in other application fields.

Semi-Markov models are widely used for survival analysis and reliability analysis. In general, there are two competing parameterizations and each entails its own interpretation and inference properties. On the one hand, a semi-Markov process can be defined based on the distribution of sojourn times, often via hazard rates, together with transition probabilities of an embedded Markov chain. On the other hand, intensity transition functions may be used, often referred to as the hazard rates of the semi-Markov process. We summarize and contrast these two parameterizations both from a probabilistic and an inference perspective, and we highlight relationships between the two approaches. In general, the intensity transition based approach allows the likelihood to be split into likelihoods of two-state models having fewer parameters, allowing efficient computation and usage of many survival analysis tools. Nevertheless, in certain cases the sojourn time based approach is natural and has been exploited extensively in applications. In contrasting the two approaches and contemporary relevant R packages used for inference, we use two real datasets highlighting the probabilistic and inference properties of each approach. This analysis is accompanied by an R vignette., (© 2020 Azam Asanjarani et al., published by De Gruyter, Berlin/Boston.)

Identification of biomarkers is an emerging area in oncology. In this article, we develop an efficient statistical procedure for the classification of protein markers according to their effect on cancer progression. A high-dimensional time-course dataset of protein markers for 80 patients motivates us for developing the model. The threshold value is formulated as a level of a marker having maximum impact on cancer progression. The classification algorithm technique for high-dimensional time-course data is developed and the algorithm is validated by comparing random components using both proportional hazard and accelerated failure time frailty models. The study elucidates the application of two separate joint modeling techniques using auto regressive-type model and mixed effect model for time-course data and proportional hazard model for survival data with proper utilization of Bayesian methodology. Also, a prognostic score is developed on the basis of few selected genes with application on patients. This study facilitates to identify relevant biomarkers from a set of markers., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Introduction: There is a paucity of data that can be used to guide the management of critically ill patients with COVID-19. In response, a research and data-sharing collaborative-The COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium-has been assembled to harness the cumulative experience of intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. The resulting observational study provides a platform to rapidly disseminate detailed data and insights crucial to improving outcomes., Methods and Analysis: This is an international, multicentre, observational study of patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to ICUs. This is an evolving, open-ended study that commenced on 1 January 2020 and currently includes >350 sites in over 48 countries. The study enrols patients at the time of ICU admission and follows them to the time of death, hospital discharge or 28 days post-ICU admission, whichever occurs last. Key data, collected via an electronic case report form devised in collaboration with the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium/Short Period Incidence Study of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness networks, include: patient demographic data and risk factors, clinical features, severity of illness and respiratory failure, need for non-invasive and/or mechanical ventilation and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and associated complications, as well as data on adjunctive therapies., Ethics and Dissemination: Local principal investigators will ensure that the study adheres to all relevant national regulations, and that the necessary approvals are in place before a site may contribute data. In jurisdictions where a waiver of consent is deemed insufficient, prospective, representative or retrospective consent will be obtained, as appropriate. A web-based dashboard has been developed to provide relevant data and descriptive statistics to international collaborators in real-time. It is anticipated that, following study completion, all de-identified data will be made open access., Trial Registration Number: ACTRN12620000421932 (http://anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12620000421932.aspx)., Competing Interests: Competing interests: GLB and JFF received research funds, through their affiliated institution, from Fisher & Paykel for studies related to high-flow oxygen therapy., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Anomaly detection (AD) in high-volume environmental data requires one to tackle a series of challenges associated with the typical low frequency of anomalous events, the broad-range of possible anomaly types, and local nonstationary environmental conditions, suggesting the need for flexible statistical methods that are able to cope with unbalanced high-volume data problems. Here, we aimed to detect anomalies caused by technical errors in water-quality (turbidity and conductivity) data collected by automated in situ sensors deployed in contrasting riverine and estuarine environments. We first applied a range of artificial neural networks that differed in both learning method and hyperparameter values, then calibrated models using a Bayesian multiobjective optimization procedure, and selected and evaluated the "best" model for each water-quality variable, environment, and anomaly type. We found that semi-supervised classification was better able to detect sudden spikes, sudden shifts, and small sudden spikes, whereas supervised classification had higher accuracy for predicting long-term anomalies associated with drifts and periods of otherwise unexplained high variability.

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef-building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad-scale climate-related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: In medical research, explanatory continuous variables are frequently transformed or converted into categorical variables. If the coding is unknown, many tests can be used to identify the "optimal" transformation. This common process, involving the problems of multiple testing, requires a correction of the significance level. Liquet and Commenges proposed an asymptotic correction of significance level in the context of generalized linear models (GLM) (Liquet and Commenges, Stat Probab Lett 71:33-38, 2005). This procedure has been developed for dichotomous and Box-Cox transformations. Furthermore, Liquet and Riou suggested the use of resampling methods to estimate the significance level for transformations into categorical variables with more than two levels (Liquet and Riou, BMC Med Res Methodol 13:75, 2013)., Results: CPMCGLM provides to users both methods of p-value adjustment. Futhermore, they are available for a large set of transformations. This paper aims to provide insight the user an overview of the methodological context, and explain in detail the use of the CPMCGLM R package through its application to a real epidemiological dataset., Conclusion: We present here the CPMCGLMR package providing efficient methods for the correction of type-I error rate in the context of generalized linear models. This is the first and the only available package in R providing such methods applied to this context. This package is designed to help researchers, who work principally in the field of biostatistics and epidemiology, to analyze their data in the context of optimal cutoff point determination.

Objectives: We sought to evaluate the impact of later menarche on the risk of operative delivery., Population: We studied 38,069 eligible women (first labors at term with a singleton infant in a cephalic presentation) from the Norwegian Mothers and Child Cohort Study. The main exposures were the age at menarche and the duration of the interval between menarche and the first birth., Methods: Poisson's regression with a robust variance estimator., Main Outcome Measures: Operative delivery, defined as emergency cesarean or assisted vaginal delivery (ventouse extraction or forceps)., Results: A 5 year increase in age at menarche was associated with a reduced risk of operative delivery (risk ratio [RR] 0.84, 95%CI 0.78, 0.89; p < .001). Adjustment for the age at first birth slightly strengthened the association (RR 0.79, 95%CI 0.74, 0.84; p < .001). However, the association was lost following adjustment for the menarche to birth interval (RR 0.99, 95%CI 0.93, 1.06; p = .81). A 5 years increase in menarche to birth interval was associated with an increased risk of operative delivery (RR 1.26, 95%CI 1.23, 1.28; p < .001). This was not materially affected by adjustment for an extensive series of maternal characteristics (RR 1.23, 95%CI 1.20, 1.25; p < .001)., Conclusions: Later menarche reduces the risk of an operative first birth through shortening the menarche to birth interval. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that the pattern and/or duration of prepregnancy exposure of the uterus to estrogen and progesterone contributes to uterine aging.