Search

Der Rückgang der Alpengletscher ist für die Schweizer Bevölkerung eines der sichtbarsten Signale der Klimakrise. Mit dem globalen Anstieg der Temperaturen schreitet die Eisschmelze ungebremst voran. Das ist einerseits ein Verlust für die Attraktivität des Hochgebirges, hat aber auch Konsequenzen für die künftige Wasserverfügbarkeit. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob die Schmelze durch künstliche Beschneiung reduziert werden kann. Das Projekt MortAlive setzt sich zum Ziel die Machbarkeit von grossflächiger Schneeproduktion am Beispiel des Morteratschgletschers zu evaluieren. Hier beschreiben wir die Effekte der künstlichen Beschneiung auf den künftigen Gletscherrückgang und Abfluss, basierend auf detaillierten glaziologischen Modellrechnungen. Für sämtliche Klimaszenarien deuten die Resultate auf einen massiven Rückgang des Morteratschgletschers über die nächsten Jahrzehnte hin. Obwohl Beschneiung – unter Bereitstellung eines neuen Speichersees – den Gletscherrückgang verlangsamt, kann der Gletscher dadurch unter keiner der möglichen Klimaentwicklungen stabilisiert werden. Die Auswirkung des Projektes auf die Wasserverfügbarkeit im Engadin ist gering. Die notwendigen Eingriffe in die hochalpine Umwelt und die beträchtlichen Kosten machen deutlich, dass künstliche Beschneiung von grossen Gletscherflächen keine Alternative zu schnellem und griffigem Klimaschutz sein kann. Le recul des glaciers alpins est l’un des signaux les plus visibles de la crise climatique pour la population suisse. Avec la hausse globale des températures, la fonte des glaces se poursuit sans relâche. D’une part, c’est une perte pour l’attractivité de la haute montagne, mais cela entraîne aussi des conséquences sur la disponibilité future en eau. Dans ce contexte, la question se pose de savoir si la fonte peut être réduite par l’enneigement artificiel. Le projet MortAlive vise à évaluer la faisabilité d’une production de neige à grande échelle en prenant l’exemple du glacier de Mort

Glacier mass-balance observations at seasonal resolution have been performed since 1914 at two sites on Claridenfirn, Switzerland. The measurements are the longest uninterrupted records ofglacier mass balance worldwide. Here, we provide a complete re-analysis of the 106-year series (1914–2020), focusing on both point and glacier-wide mass balance. The approaches to evaluate and homogenize the direct observations are described in detail. Based on conservative assumptions, average uncertainties of ±0.25 m w.e. are estimated for glacier-wide mass balances at the annual scale. It is demonstrated that long-term variations in mass balance are clearly driven by melting, whereas decadal changes in accumulation are uncorrelated with mass balance and can only be relevant in short periods. Mass change of Claridenfirn is impacted by dry calving at a frontal ice cliff. Considerations of ice volume flux at a cross-profile reveal long-term variations in frontal ice loss accounting for ∼9% of total annual ablation on average. The effect of changes in frontal ablation mostly explains, <10% of the mass-balance difference relative to the period 1960–1990, but accounts for ∼20% in 2010–2020. Glacier mass changes are discussed in the context of observations throughout the European Alps indicating that Claridenfirn is regionally representative.

Accurate knowledge of the ice thickness distribution and glacier bed topography is essential for predicting dynamic glacier changes and the future developments of downstream hydrology, which are impacting the energy sector, tourism industry and natural hazard management. Using AIR-ETH, a new helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR) platform, we measured the ice thickness of all large and most medium-sized glaciers in the Swiss Alps during the years 2016–20. Most of these had either never or only partially been surveyed before. With this new dataset, 251 glaciers – making up 81% of the glacierized area – are now covered by GPR surveys. For obtaining a comprehensive estimate of the overall glacier ice volume, ice thickness distribution and glacier bed topography, we combined this large amount of data with two independent modeling algorithms. This resulted in new maps of the glacier bed topography with unprecedented accuracy. The total glacier volume in the Swiss Alps was determined to be 58.7 ± 2.5 km$^{3}$ in the year 2016. By projecting these results based on mass-balance data, we estimated a total ice volume of 52.9 ± 2.7 km$^{3}$ for the year 2020. Data and modeling results are accessible in the form of the SwissGlacierThickness-R2020 data package.

Glaciers in Switzerland are shrinking rapidly in response to ongoing climate change. Repeated glacier inventories are key to monitor such changes at the regional scale. Here we present the new Swiss Glacier Inventory 2016 (SGI2016) that has been acquired based on sub-meter resolution aerial imagery and digital elevation models, bringing together topographical and glaciological approaches and knowledge. We define the process, workflow and required glaciological adaptations to compile a highly detailed inventory based on the digital Swiss Topographic Landscape model. The SGI2016 provides glacier outlines (areas), supraglacial debris cover and ice divides for all Swiss glaciers referring to the years 2013–2018. The SGI2016 maps 1,400 individual glacier entities with a total surface area of 961 ± 22 km$^{2}$, whereof 11% (104 km$^{2}$) are debris-covered. It constitutes the so far most detailed cartographic representation of glacier extent in Switzerland. Interpretation in the context of topographic parameters indicates that glaciers with moderate inclination and low median elevation tend to have highest fractions of supraglacial debris. Glacier-specific area changes since 1973 show the largest relative changes for small and low-elevation glaciers. The analysis further indicates a tendency for glaciers with a high share of supraglacial debris to show larger relative area changes. Between 1973 and 2016, an area change rate of –0.6% a$^{−1}$ is found. Based on operational data sets and the presented methodology, the Swiss Glacier Inventory will be updated in 6-yr time intervals, leading to a high consistency in future glacier change assessments.

De-glaciating high mountain areas result in new landscapes of bedrock and debris where permafrost can degrade, persist or even newly form in cases, and of new lakes in glacier bed overdeepenings (GBOs) becoming ice-free. These landscapes with new lakes in close neighborhood to over-steepened and perennially frozen slopes are prone to chain reaction processes (e.g. rock-ice avalanches into lakes triggering impact waves, dam breach or overtopping, and debris flows) with potentially far-reaching run-out distances causing valley floors devastation. The frequency, magnitude and zonation of hazards are shifting, requiring integrative approaches combining comprehensive information about landscape evolution and related processes to support stakeholders in their adaptation strategies. In this study, we intend to setup an essential baseline for such an integrative approach in the Mont Blanc massif (MBM), which is a typical high-mountain range affected by de-glaciation processes. We first (i) predict and (ii) detect potential GBOs by combining the GlabTop model with a visual analysis based on morphological indications of glacier flow through over- deepened bed parts. We then (iii) determine the level of confidence concerning the resulting information, and (iv) estimate the approximate time range under which potential lakes could form. The location of the predicted GBOs and the shape of glacier beds are evaluated against currently forming water bodies at retreating glacier snouts, and seismic and ice penetrating radar measurements on the Argentière glacier. This comparison shows that the location of predicted GBOs is quite robust whereas their morphometric characteristics (depth, volume) are highly uncertain and tend to be underestimated. In total, 48/80 of the predicted or detected GBOs have a high level of confidence. In addition to five recently formed water bodies at glacier snouts, one of the high confidence GBOs (Talèfre glacier) which is also the most voluminous one coul

Der Beitrag führt in konzeptionelle Gedanken einer „pragmatisch-integrativen Geographie“ ein und erläutert wie diese Ideen in konkreten Lehrveranstaltungen für angehende Lehrpersonen an Schweizer Sekundarschulen (Sek I), von einem Team aus Humangeographinnen und Physiogeographen in die Praxis umgesetzt werden.

Despite previous studies, glacier–lake interactions and future lake development in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, are still not well understood. We mapped glacial lakes, glaciers, their frontal positions and ice flow from optical remote sensing data, and calculated glacier surface elevation change from digital terrain models. During 1964–2017, the total glacial-lake area increased by ~110%. Glaciers retreated with an average rate of ~1.4 km² a⁻¹ between 1975 and 2015. Based on rapid area expansion (>150%), and information from previous studies, eight lakes were considered to be potentially dangerous glacial lakes. Corresponding lake-terminating glaciers showed an overall retreat of 6.0 ± 1.4 to 26.6 ± 1.1 m a⁻¹ and accompanying lake expansion. The regional mean glacier elevation change was −0.39 ± 0.13 m a⁻¹ while the glaciers associated with the eight potentially dangerous lakes lowered by −0.71 ± 0.05 m a⁻¹ from 1974 to 2017. The mean ice flow speed of these glaciers was ~10 m a⁻¹ from 2013 to 2017; about double the mean for the entire study area. Analysis of these data along with climate observations suggests that ice melting and calving processes play the dominant role in driving lake enlargement. Modelling of future lake development shows where new lakes might emerge and existing lakes could expand with projected glacial recession.

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first- order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk ‘hotspots’, illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from ‘high’ to ‘very high’. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges.

Surface digital elevation models (DEMs) and slope-related estimates of glacier thickness enable modelling of glacier-bed topographies over large ice-covered areas. Due to the erosive power of glaciers, such bed topographies can contain numerous overdeepenings, which when exposed following glacier retreat may fill with water and form new lakes. In this study, the bed overdeepenings for ~28 000 glaciers (40 775 km²) of the Himalaya-Karakoram region are modelled using GlabTop2 (Glacier Bed Topography model version 2), in which ice thickness is inferred from surface slope by parameterizing basal shear stress as a function of elevation range for each glacier. The modelled ice thicknesses are uncertain (±30%), but spatial patterns of ice thickness and bed elevation primarily depend on surface slopes as derived from the DEM and, hence, are more robust. About 16 000 overdeepenings larger than 10⁴m² were detected in the modelled glacier beds, covering an area of ~2200 km² and having a volume of ~120km³ (3-4% of present-day glacier volume). About 5000 of these overdeepenings (1800 km²) have a volume larger than 10⁶m³. The results presented here are useful for anticipating landscape evolution and potential future lake formation with associated opportunities (tourism, hydropower) and risks (lake outbursts).

A re-analysis is presented here of a 10 year mass balance series at Findelengletscher, a temperate mountain glacier in Switzerland. Calculating glacier-wide mass balance from the set of glaciological point balance observations using conventional approaches, such as the profile or contour method, resulted in significant deviations from the reference value given by the geodetic mass change over a 5 year period. This is attributed to the sparsity of observations at high elevations and to the inability of the evaluation schemes to adequately estimate accumulation in unmeasured areas. However, measurements of winter mass balance were available for large parts of the study period from snow probings and density pits. Complementary surveys by helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR) were conducted in three consecutive years. The complete set of seasonal observations was assimilated using a distributed mass balance model. This model-based extrapolation revealed a substantial mass loss at Findelengletscher of −0.43 m w.e.a⁻¹ between 2004 and 2014, while the loss was less pronounced for its former tributary, Adlergletscher (−0.30 m w.e.a⁻¹). For both glaciers, the resulting time series were within the uncertainty bounds of the geodetic mass change. We show that the model benefited strongly from the ability to integrate seasonal observations. If no winter mass balance measurements were available and snow cover was represented by a linear precipitation gradient, the geodetic mass balance was not matched. If winter balance measurements by snow probings and snow density pits were taken into account, the model performance was substantially improved but still showed a significant bias relative to the geodetic mass change. Thus, the excellent agreement of the model-based extrapolation with the geodetic mass change was owed to an adequate representation of winter accumulation distribution by means of extensive GPR measurements.

Surface digital elevation models (DEMs) and slope-related estimates of glacier thickness enable modelling of glacier-bed topographies over large ice-covered areas. Due to the erosive power of glaciers, such bed topographies can contain numerous overdeepenings, which when exposed following glacier retreat may fill with water and form new lakes. In this study, the bed overdeepenings for ~28000 glaciers (40775km²) of the Himalaya–Karakoram region are modelled using GlabTop2 (Glacier Bed Topography model version 2), in which ice thickness is inferred from surface slope by parameterizing basal shear stress as a function of elevation range for each glacier. The modelled ice thicknesses are uncertain (±30%), but spatial patterns of ice thickness and bed elevation primarily depend on surface slopes as derived from the DEM and, hence, are more robust. About 16000 overdeepenings larger than 10⁴ m² were detected in the modelled glacier beds, covering an area of ~2200 km² and having a volume of ~120 km³ (3–4% of present-day glacier volume). About 5000 of these overdeepenings (1800 km2) have a volume larger than 10⁶ m³. The results presented here are useful for anticipating landscape evolution and potential future lake formation with associated opportunities (tourism, hydropower) and risks (lake outbursts).

While there is general consensus that observed global mean air temperature has increased during the past few decades and will very likely continue to rise in the coming decades, the assessment of the effective impacts of increased global mean air temperature on a specific regional-scale system remains highly challenging. This study takes up the widely discussed concept of limiting global mean temperature to a certain target value, like the so-called 2 °C target, to assess the related impacts on the Swiss Alpine glaciers. A model setup is introduced that uses and combines homogenized long-term meteorological observations and three ensembles of transient gridded Regional Climate Model simulations to drive a distributed glacier mass balance model under a (regionalized) global 2 °C target scenario. 101 glaciers are analyzed representing about 50% of the glacierized area and 75% of the ice volume in Switzerland. In our study, the warming over Switzerland, which corresponds to the global 2 °C target is met around 2030, 2045 and 2055 (depending on the ensemble) for Switzerland, and all glaciers have fully adjusted to the new climate conditions at around 2150. By this time and relative to the year 2000, the glacierized area and volume are both decreased to about 35% and 20%, respectively, and glacier-based runoff is reduced by about 70%

Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. A variety of different methodologies exist but there is a lack of systematic comparative analysis thereof. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. Here, three volume–area V–A) relations, a slope-dependent estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a complete glacier inventory of the HK region. An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the input glacier areas, and model approaches and parameters on the resulting total ice volumes. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955km³ to 6455km³, depending on the approach. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses while V–A relations show stronger deviations. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation. More ice-thickness measurements are needed to improve models and results in the future.

Ongoing atmospheric warming causes rapid shrinking of glaciers in the European Alps, with a high chance of their near-complete disappearance by the end of the 21st century. Here we present a comparison of three independent approaches to model the possible evolution of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps over the 21st century. The models have different levels of complexity, work at a regional scale and are forced with three scenarios of temperature increase (low, moderate, high). The moderate climate scenario gives an increase in air temperature of ~28C and ~48C for the two scenario periods 2021–50 and 2070–99, respectively, resulting in an area loss of 60–80% by 2100. In reality, the shrinkage could be even faster, as the observed mean annual thickness loss is already stronger than the modelled one. The three approaches lead to rather similar results with respect to the overall long-term evolution. The choice of climate scenarios produces the largest spread (~40%) in the final area loss, while the uncertainty in present-day ice-thickness estimation causes about half this spread.