1. Development of a nomogram for predicting pancreatic portal hypertension in patients with acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study
- Author
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Yong Lv, Hui Luo, Yingjie Zhang, Xiangping Wang, Yanglin Pan, Yunling Li, Qiaoyu Su, Xianchen Zhan, Linhui Zhang, Xiaoyu Kang, Shuhui Liang, and Gui Ren
- Subjects
Diseases of the digestive system. Gastroenterology ,RC799-869 - Abstract
Introduction Pancreatic portal hypertension (PPH) is a rare complication of acute pancreatitis (AP) that can lead to severe gastrointestinal bleeding. The risk factors associated with PPH, as well as the overall prognosis, warrant further investigation. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram to predict PPH in patients with AP.Methods Consecutive patients with AP from 2015 to 2023 were retrospectively included in the study. Demographic data, clinical manifestations within the first week of AP onset, and initial contrast-enhanced CT findings were used to develop the predictive model. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for PPH. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a nomogram was developed. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a 7:3 ratio. The accuracy and discriminative power of the predictive model were assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic curve and the calibration curve.Results Of the 1473 patients with AP, 107 (7.3%) developed PPH within 6 months (range: 2–22 months) during follow-up. Multivariate regression analysis showed that body mass index (BMI) (HR, 1.10; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.16; p=0.001), moderately severe grade (HR, 9.36; 95% CI 4.58 to 19.13; p
- Published
- 2024
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