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To meet carbon peak and neutrality targets, accurate carbon trading price forecasting is very important for enterprises making emission reduction decisions. By fusing convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM), the CNN–LSTM model is constructed. After variational mode decomposition (VMD), several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) components are obtained and input into the CNN–LSTM model, thus constructing the combined sooty tern optimization algorithm (STOA)–VMD–CNN–LSTM forecasting model. To test this model, the carbon trading prices of the carbon emission trading markets of Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen were forecast. The prediction performance of the STOA–VMD–CNN–LSTM model is compared with ARIMA, BP, CNN and LSTM benchmark models and models combining different decomposition technologies. The international carbon trading price (EUR and CER) is used for prediction. Compared with other methods, the developed model makes fewer errors and achieves superior performance. Several important implications are provided for investors and risk managers involved in carbon financial products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Providing a scientific basis and method to ensure the smooth functioning of the Chinese crude oil market would be hugely significant to China's future economic development and security. To this end, attempts have been made to both internationalize the Shanghai crude oil market and minimize financial risks. This paper selects three crude oil markets (INE, WTI and Brent) and five Chinese financial markets (the futures, bond, fund, stock and foreign exchange markets) as the research objects. The Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index model and the multifractal asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-ADCCA) method are used to study the volatility spillover effect and the asymmetric cross-correlation between crude oil markets and financial markets. When the volatility spillover effect and the asymmetric relationship that exists between the financial markets are examined, the volatility spillover of the oil market to the financial market is found to be significantly higher than that of the financial market to the oil market. In particular, the spillover effect was even more significant from late-2019 to early-2020. Analysis demonstrates an asymmetric cross-correlation between crude oil markets and the abovementioned five Chinese financial markets. In particular, the impact of the Chinese crude oil market on the stock market is greatest, especially with respect to the Brent and WTI crude oil markets. Except for the bond market, when the INE and Brent markets are increasing, the risk exposure to financial markets is more significant. Among financial markets, INE-Bond market asymmetry is stronger than WTI-bond market asymmetry, but weaker than that of the Brent-Bond market when there are large fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]