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Climate change is increasingly influencing tourism policy and practice and there is a growing need to assess climate risk for destinations and the potential implications for global tourism demand p...

Climate indices have a long history of use to combine multi-faceted climate information for tourism resource evaluation. Traditionally, indices have been used to assess tourists’ sensitivity to des...

Peer reviewed literature on the availability and use of climate services in the operations and management of tourism is scarce. Using a multi-method approach, we provide insights on both basic and specialised climate information utilised by a range of public and private sector tourism decision-makers in the most tourism-dependent region in the world - the Caribbean. We also examined whether existing climate information meets tourism destination planning, marketing and operational decision-making needs and how the tourism industry could more effectively and efficiently integrate climate information to enhance sector performance. Results from research with 47 Caribbean hoteliers and tourism policy-makers show that short-term destination and source market weather information are widely consulted, but the use of historical climate information and longer-term climate forecasts is comparatively lower. There are few tailored climate information products and services, and uptake of the few that exist is low. Current climate information inadequately fulfills decision-makers’ needs due to a number of challenges, including a short history of engagement between the climate and tourism communities, along with a partial understanding of the needs and preferences of tourism stakeholders. Evidence suggests that a new generation of specialised climate information products can enhance climate risk management amongst tourism suppliers. Further research and relationship building will be needed to support the co-production and uptake of tailored climate information for the Caribbean tourism sector. Tourism-dependent Small Island Developing States in other regions interested in pursuing climate services for tourism can learn from the experience and approach used in the Caribbean.

The complexity of the human-environment interface predicates the need for tools and techniques that can enable the effective translation of weather and climate products into decision-relevant information. Indices are a category of such tools that may be used to simplify multi-faceted climate information for economic and other decision-making. Climate indices for tourism have been popularized in the literature over the past three decades, but despite their prevalence, these indices have a number of limitations, including coarse temporal resolution, subjective rating and weighting schemes, and lack of empirical validation. This paper critically assesses the design of the tourism climate index, the holiday climate index-beach, and a new, mathematically optimized index developed for the unique contextual realities of Great Lakes beach tourism. This new methodology combines the use of expert knowledge, stated visitor preferences, and mathematical optimization to develop an index that assigns daily weather scores based on four weather sub-indices (thermal comfort, wind speed, precipitation, and cloud cover). These daily scores are then averaged to the monthly level and correlated to visitation data at two beach parks in Ontario (Canada). This optimized index demonstrates a strong fit (R2 = 0.734, 0.657) with observed visitation at Pinery Provincial Park and Sandbanks Provincial Park, outperforming both the tourism climate index (R2 = 0.474, 0.018) and the holiday climate index-beach (R2 = 0.668, 0.427). This study advances our understanding of the magnitude and seasonality of weather impact on beach tourist visitation and can inform decision-making of tourism marketers and destination managers.

Snow and ice control programs are critical for the efficiency and safety of transportation systems in all winter climates. Tools that help road authorities plan for, assess, and communicate the relationship between climate and winter road maintenance (WRM) activities are needed. There is increasing evidence that the development of such Climate Services (CS) tools is an iterative, evolving, and long-term process between the producers and users of this climate information, which increases the usability and application of climate science. This paper presents a case study describing the co-production of a climate translation service for a Canadian road authority. The purpose of this study is to: 1) refine an existing Winter Severity Index (WSI) to better understand how winter weather translates into inter-annual variations in WRM activities using publicly available data; 2) apply the index to historical weather observations to assess the magnitude and significance of historical winter weather trends, and 3) apply the index to modelled climate data to project the impacts of climate change on WRM operations in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that the WSI for Ontario highways has strong fit with maintenance activity, when measured as equipment-hours. Analysis of WRM trends over more than three decades shows that winter severity has increased in some areas and decreased in others. The climate change analysis reveals that winters will experience a reduction in winter severity into the coming century.

Through an empirical investigation of the historical relationship between the destination climate and tourist arrivals in the Caribbean, this study presents the first revealed preference evaluation of a climate index informed by tourists&rsquo, stated climatic preferences for coastal-beach tourism (i.e., a sun-sand-surf or 3S travel market). The goal of this multi-organization collaboration was to examine the potential application of a newly designed climate index&mdash, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI):Beach&mdash, for three Caribbean destinations (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Saint Lucia). This paper provides an overview of the evolution of climate indices, including the development of the (HCI):Beach. To test the validity of climate indices for a beach travel market, daily climate ratings based on outputs from the Tourism Climate Index and the HCI were correlated with monthly arrivals data from Canada (a key source market) at an island destination scale. The results underscore the strength of the new index, with each destination scoring consistently higher using the HCI:Beach, including a stronger relationship (R2) between index scores and tourist arrivals. These findings demonstrate the value of combining stated and revealed preference methodologies to predict tourism demand and highlight opportunities for future research.

Winter weather creates mobility challenges for most northern jurisdictions, leading to significant expenditures on winter road maintenance (WRM) activities. While the science and practice of snow and ice control is continually evolving, climate change presents particular challenges for the strategic planning of WRM. The purpose of this study is 1) to develop a winter severity index (WSI) to better understand how winter weather translates into interannual variations in WRM activities and 2) to apply the WSI to future climate change projections to assist a northern community in preparing for climate change. A new method for creating a WSI model is explored, using readily available data from maintenance records and meteorological stations. The WSI is created by optimizing values for three levels of snowfall as well as potential icing events and is shown to have high predictive accuracy for WRM (coefficient of determination R2 of 0.93). The WSI is then applied to historic and future climate data in a municipality located in central British Columbia, Canada. Findings reveal that much of the variability in WRM can be attributed to weather. The results of the climate change analysis show that winter precipitation in the region is expected to increase by 5.2%–12.3%, and winter average temperatures are projected to increase by 1.5°–2.8°C in the 2050s, compared to the 1976–2000 baseline based on 65 GCMs. Based on the midrange (25th to 75th percentiles) of the 65 GCM projections, annual demand for WRM activities is estimated to decrease by 13.0%–22.0%.

11030 Background: In 2020, the NCI funded a new educational consortium, NASDC (NCI Awardee Skills Development Consortium, RFA-CA-19-010 and -011), through four institutionally granted UE5 awards to deliver a specific course each and a U24 award as a Coordinating Center. The goal is to teach current early-career faculty NCI grantees skills in areas critical for successful independent academic cancer research careers. Courses focus on leadership and socioemotional skills, health disparities, immuno-oncology, and cell and gene therapy. Teaching will initially be virtual, given the COVID pandemic. Methods: A steering committee and four working groups were established to build the consortium infrastructure, including the NASDC (osu.edu) website. Clientele are early-career faculty PD/PI of a current NCI-funded grant (K01, K07, K08, K22, K23, K25, R00, R21, DP1, DP2, DP5, R01, R23, R29, R37, R56, RF1, RL1, U01), of whom 454 were directly contacted. Blast emails and social media were also used. We are reporting the characteristics of 154 applicants, who completed the RedCap application online. Results: 85% of the applicants are within the first 5 years of a faculty appointment, 87% at the assistant professor rank, and 65% on tenure track. 40% hold an M.D. degree and 72% a Ph.D. 81% are US citizens, 52% females, and 45/33/16/2/4%-11% are White/Asian/Black/Native Americans/Other–Hispanics/Latino. 76% work at NCI-designated comprehensive cancer centers. Mean protected research time is 80%. Non-mutually exclusive fields of research interest are therapeutics (46%), basic science (37%), disparities (34%) prevention (32%), public health (28%), and pediatrics (10%). 66% have received a K-award grant, 13% each an R21 or R00, and 3% an R01. Additionally, 35% had a second NCI grant as PI, 10% a third grant, and 60% had non-NCI grants. Reasons for applying included (1) not quite ready to lead a research team (42%), (2) need for stronger career mentoring (37%), and (3) not being fully confident in research skills (21%). Conclusions: Applicants to the new NCI educational consortium (NASDC) have a successful start to their academic career with a third having obtained more than one NCI award. Most applicants work at NCI-designated comprehensive cancer centers. As cancer research continues to evolve and has the potential to address critical health care needs of the nation, NASDC will strive to equip scientists to be leaders, teach advances in technology, and impart confidence in research skills.

This study investigates shopping experiences at dealerships selling electric vehicles (EVs) in Ontario, Canada. In 2014, twenty mystery shoppers were trained and sent into 24 EV-certified dealerships (with a total of 95 shopping experiences) to observe the sales approach towards EVs. Results show that a common barrier for shoppers is the unavailability of EVs at the dealership – including a lack of EV models on site to view or test-drive as well as a three- to four-month waiting period to receive the vehicle once ordered. A multiple regression model was developed to explore which factors influence the likelihood of deciding to purchase an EV. Findings suggest that, controlling for brand, the key success factors are a salesperson's positive attitude and the availability of an EV on site. It is important for future policy makers to acknowledge the influential role of market intermediaries, such as dealerships, in the adoption of EVs. The research findings demonstrate a potential for government agencies to work with dealerships and/or salespeople to improve EV uptake by encouraging the presence of floor models and vehicles for test-driving on site, and by increasing the accuracy of information being provided to customers.

The wide-spread proliferation of the Internet has revolutionized the ways that individuals obtain, interpret, and respond to information in the aftermath of disaster. An F3 tornado that impacted th...

Background Chronic liver injury can result in fibrosis that may progress over years to end-stage liver disease. The most effective anti-fibrotic therapy is treatment of the underlying disease, however when not possible, interventions to reverse or slow fibrosis progression are needed. Aim The aim of this study was to study the safety and tolerability of simtuzumab, a monoclonal antibody directed against lysyl oxidase-like 2 (LOXL2) enzyme, in subjects with hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), or HCV-HIV co-infection and advanced liver disease. Methods Eighteen subjects with advanced liver fibrosis received simtuzumab 700 mg intravenously every 2 weeks for 22 weeks. Transjugular liver biopsies were performed during screening and at the end of treatment to measure hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) and to stage fibrosis. Results Treatment was well-tolerated with no discontinuations due to adverse events. No significant changes were seen in HVPG or liver biopsy fibrosis score after treatment. Exploratory transcriptional and protein profiling using paired pre- and post-treatment liver biopsy and serum samples suggested up-regulation of TGF-β3 and IL-10 pathways with treatment. Conclusion In this open-label, pilot clinical trial, simtuzumab treatment was well-tolerated in HCV- and HIV-infected subjects with advanced liver disease. Putative modulation of TGF-β3 and IL-10 pathways during simtuzumab treatment merits investigation in future trials.

Future climate warming is virtually certain to bring about an increase in the frequency of heat extremes. Highway design and pavement selection are based on a temperature regime that reflects the local climate zone. Increasing heat extremes could, therefore, shift some areas into a different performance grade (PG) for pavement, and more-heat-resistant materials are associated with increased infrastructure costs. This study combines observations, output from global climate models, and a statistical model to investigate changes in 20-yr return values of extreme maximum pavement temperature TPmax. From a multimodel range of simulated TPmax, future changes in PG are computed for 17 major Canadian cities. Relative to a 1981–2000 baseline, summertime Canada-wide warming of 1°–3°C is projected for 2041–70. As a result, climate change is likely to bring about profound changes to the spatial distribution of PG, with the severity of the changes directly linked to the severity of the projected warming. Even under weak simulated warming, an increase in PG is projected for greater Toronto, which is Canada’s largest urban area; under moderate (strong) warming 7 of 17 (9 of 17) major cities exhibit an increase. The influence of model spatial resolution is evaluated by comparing the results from global climate models with output from a set of regional climate models focused on North America. With the exception of mountainous terrain in western Canada, spatial resolution is not a major determining factor for projections of future PG changes.

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.

Snow removal and ice control are critical to the safe and efficient use of roadways in much of the world. Tools that help road authorities plan for, assess, and communicate about winter mai...

Ground-based transport moves more tourists than any other form of transportation and contributes c. 32% of tourism's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – yet remains a largely neglected area of emission/carbon management research. This study examines the value of vehicle monitoring technology (VMT) and eco-driver training as a means to improve fuel efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions for a fleet of vehicles at the largest ski resort operation in Ontario, Canada. The VMT was installed in 14 fleet vehicles. After eco-driver training, the fleet reduced its average daily speed (−14%), hard decelerations (−55%), hard accelerations (−44%), and idling time (−2%), resulting in decreased fuel costs (−8%) and CO2 emissions (−8%). The process requires very low capital expenditures, can pay for itself in as little as one year, and has safety paybacks. It also has valuable externalities: tourism businesses that instill sustainability awareness and values to their employees contribute to environmental prosperity generally,...

This article highlights eco-driving as an available policy option to reduce climate altering GHG emissions. Recognizing the need to reduce the environmental impact of its fleet operations, the City of Calgary is a leader in developing programs and policies that aim to reduce GHG emissions and associated pollutants resulting from the use of fossil fuels. Among local action taken against climate change, the City sought to quantify CO2 emissions reductions from their municipal fleet as a result of eco-driver training, with a specific focus on engine idling. Fifteen drivers from the Development & Building Approvals Business Unit had in-vehicle monitoring technology (CarChips®) installed into their vehicles as part of a three-phase research process. The results show that gasoline and hybrid vehicles decreased average idling between 4% and 10% per vehicle per day, leading to an average emissions decrease of 1.7 kg of CO2 per vehicle per day.

The current economic recession has been the single worst in the United States since the Great Depression. In 2010, 46.2 million people were living at or below the poverty level. As a result of the nation's economic downturn and unemployment rates, there has been an onslaught of municipal decay and abandoned buildings. Nonseasonal vacant properties increased from 7 million in the year 2000 to 10 million in the year 2010. Texas, in particular, experienced a 41% to 50% increase in the number of vacant properties in its cities. Public nuisances such as deteriorating buildings, pest infestations, and overgrown vegetation commonly result from these neglected properties. Their presence has a negative effect on the quality of life of people living in communities nationwide. In the wake of the recession more than ever, Texas has been faced with the need to abate public nuisances in an effort to keep its communities safe and to rehabilitate its cities.

Background Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may be associated with chronic immune dysregulation and a proinflammatory state. Among HIV-infected individuals, PTSD is associated with greater morbidity and mortality, but the association with immune dysfunction has not been evaluated. This study explores the association between PTSD and selected markers of inflammation and immune activation in a cohort of HIV-infected, virally-suppressed individuals. Methods HIV-infected adults who were virologically controlled on antiretroviral medications were recruited through a screening protocol for studies of HIV-related neurocognitive disorders. Each participant underwent blood draws, urine toxicology screen, and completed the Client Diagnostic Questionnaire, a semistructured psychiatric interview. Results Of 114 eligible volunteers, 72 (63%) were male, 77 (68%) African American, and 34 (30%) participants met criteria for PTSD. Participants with PTSD were more likely to be current smokers (79%) than those without (60%) ( p = 0.05). The PTSD cohort had significantly higher total white blood cell counts (5318 and 6404 cells/uL, p = 0.03), absolute neutrophil count (2767 and 3577 cells/uL, p = 0.02), CD8% (43 and 48, p = 0.05), and memory CD8% (70 and 78%, p = 0.04); lower naive CD8% (30 and 22%, p = 0.04) and higher rate of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >3mg/L (29 and 20, p = 0.03). Discussion A high prevalence of PTSD was identified in this cohort of HIV-infected adults who were virally suppressed. These results suggest that PTSD may be associated with immune dysregulation even among antiretroviral therapy-adherent HIV-infected individuals.

We assessed motor laterality in sheep to explore species-specific brain hemi-field dominance and how this could be affected by genetic or developmental factors. Further, we investigated whether directionality and strength of laterality could be linked to emotional stress in ewes and their lambs during partial separation. Forty-three ewes and their singleton lambs were scored on the (left/right) direction of turn in a y-maze to rejoin a conspecific (laterality test). Further, their behavioural response (i.e. time spent near the fence, vocalisations, and activity level) during forced separation by an open-mesh fence was assessed (separation test). Individual laterality was recorded for 44.2% ewes (significant right bias) and 81.4% lambs (equally biased to the left and the right). There was no significant association in side bias between dams and offspring. The Chi-squared test revealed a significant population bias for both groups (p < 0.05). Evolutionary adaptive strategies or stimuli-related visual laterality may provide explanation for this decision-making process. Absolute strength of laterality (irrespective of side) was high (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, dams: D = 0.2; p < 0.001; lambs: D = 0.36, p < 0.0001). The Wilcoxon test showed that lateralised lambs and dams spent significantly more time near each other during separation than non-lateralised animals (p < 0.05), and that lateralised dams were also more active than non-lateralised ones. Arguably, the lateralised animals showed a greater attraction to their pair because they were more disturbed and thus required greater reassurance. The data show that measures of laterality offer a potential novel non-invasive indicator of separation stress.

(See the Editorial Commentary by Crum-Cianflone on pages 1579–81.) Aminotransferase elevations are common in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected patients, occurring in 20%–60% of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), even in the absence of viral hepatitis coinfection [1–3]. Causes of hepatotoxicity in HIV-infected adults include coinfection with hepatitis B or C, alcohol abuse, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and medication, including antiretroviral, toxicity. A possible contribution to chronic liver injury by HIV infection itself or the associated immunodeficiency is controversial [4, 5]. Prior studies in HIV-monoinfected patients with aminotransferase elevations suggest a high prevalence of clinically significant liver disease, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and hepatic fibrosis [6, 7]. Patients with aminotransferase elevations require additional visits for laboratory studies and clinical assessments, and often undergo interruptions and changes in ART [8]. However, the impact of chronic aminotransferase elevations, and any related liver damage, on morbidity and mortality has not been well defined [9, 10]. As a consequence, at present there are no established guidelines as to when ART should be changed or discontinued in the setting of mild to moderate aminotransferase elevations. After evaluation for viral hepatitis and other reversible causes of liver enzyme elevations, most clinicians elect to monitor these elevations, given their uncertain clinical significance. To better understand the clinical and pathologic correlates of chronic aminotransferase elevations in HIV-infected adults receiving ART and without evidence of chronic viral hepatitis, such patients were prospectively enrolled in a cross-sectional study to examine the prevalence and clinical correlates of antiretroviral-associated liver disease, including steatosis, steatohepatitis, and fibrosis.

A hallmark of modern animal welfare legislation is the incorporation of positive duties of care based on principles broadly known as the ‘five freedoms’. The duties create a legal obligation on animal caregivers to provide for the needs of animals in their care, one of which is the "opportunity to display normal patterns of behaviour". The freedoms, including the opportunity to exhibit "normal" behaviour, are all premised on the inclusion of human involvement in animal care. Consequently it would be inconsistent for the judiciary to define “normal”, in a manner that excludes the human caregiver or interpret “normal” behaviour of domesticated animals solely by reference to the animals “wild” counterparts. Contemporary reality clearly indicates that the legislative definition of “normal” behaviour for the purposes of animal welfare law must be based on legal and scientific constructs that give significant weight and consideration to the animal’s ability to adapt, and to the individual animal’s past and present environment which includes the presence and role of the human caregiver.

The overall aim of the project was to evaluate the use of routinely collected animal based measures (ABMs) for an evaluatio n of the overall animal welfare in dairy cow herds. ABMs being able to detect worst adverse effects in relation to animal welfare were identified based on the existing literature and expert opinion. The validity and robustness of these ABMs were evaluated and cow mortality, somatic cell count and lameness were selected for further study. A number of factors of variation were selected using expert opinion and used in a model to collate routinely collected data from Italy, Belgium and Denmark on selected ABMs . The routinely collected data was uploaded to the Data Collection Framework platform at EFSA and the data management in this process was evaluated. Five research datasets from Italy, Belgium, Denmark and France including information on ABMs as well as a m easure of ’overall animal welfare’ at herd level were analysed to evaluate the association between the ABMs (individually or in combination) and overall welfare. The measure of ’overall animal welfare’ were not the same for all datasets. Except from the It alian data, the association between the ABMs and the different overall welfare measures were generally weak. Likewise, combining more than one ABM only improved the prediction of the overall welfare in the Italian dataset. Analyses of the other datasets co uld not confirm this finding. Finally, suggestions for future recordings of ABMs not routinely collected at the moment were given with a special focus on lameness. In conclusion, t he relationship between selected ABMs and overall welfare at the herd level is complex and still not sufficiently studied. Therefore, a system using routinely collected ABMs to predict the overall welfare at herd level in dairy herds does not seem realistic based on the results from the present study