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This article presents trends in democracy, autocracy, and regime transformation using the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset version 14. We offer five main findings. First, the average level of democracy as measured by the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) continues to decline and has reached the 1985-level when looking at the population-weighted averages. Second, 42 countries are in ongoing episodes of autocratization, and 18 countries are in ongoing episodes of democratization in 2023. Third, we are the first to show that out of the 42 autocratizing countries, 19 are "Bell-turn" autocratizers, while nine out of the 18 democratizers are "U-turns." Fourth, we unpack the familiar analysis of the three waves of autocratization and democratization by dividing these into the newly discovered stand-alone episodes of autocratization versus Bell-turn episodes, as well as stand-alone episodes of democratization versus U-turn episodes. This analysis suggests that regime volatility has increased in recent years, as a larger share of both autocratization and democratization are made up of Bell-turns and U-turns, respectively. Fifth, out of the 60 countries holding national elections this year, 31 countries are in some degree of decline in democracy, while only three are improving on democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a new conceptualization of regime transformation that allows scholars to address democratization and autocratization as related but obverse processes. We introduce a dataset that captures 680 episodes of regime transformation (ERT) from 1900 to 2019 and offers novel insights into regime change over the past 120 years. The ERT has three main advantages over other approaches. First, it avoids problematic assumptions of unit homogeneity and constant as well as symmetric effects. Second, it integrates key insights from qualitative studies by treating regime change as a gradual and uncertain process. Third, the ERT is based on a unified framework for studying regime transformation in either direction. The dataset differentiates between four broad types of regime transformation: liberalization in autocracies, democratic deepening in democracies, and autocratization in both democracies and autocracies (democratic and autocratic regression). It further distinguishes ten patterns with distinct outcomes, including standard depictions of regime change (i.e. democratic transition or breakdown). A minority (32%) of ERTs produce a regime transition, with the majority of episodes either ending before a transition takes place or not having the potential for such a transition (i.e. further democratization in democratic regimes or further autocratization in autocratic regimes). We also provide comparisons to other datasets, illustrative case studies to demonstrate face validity, and a discussion about how the ERT framework can be applied in peace research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]