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Expanding and enhancing protected area networks (PAs) is at the forefront of efforts to conserve and restore global biodiversity but climate change and habitat loss can interact synergistically to undermine the potential benefits of PAs. Targeting conservation, adaptation and mitigation efforts requires understanding climate and land-use patterns within PAs, both currently and under future scenarios. Here, projecting rates of temporal and spatial displacement of climate and land-use revealed that more than one-quarter of the world’s PAs (~27%) are located in regions that will experience both high rates of climate change and land-use change by 2050. Substantial changes are expected to occur more often within PAs distributed across tropical moist and grassland biomes, which currently host diverse tetrapods and vascular plants, and fall into less-stringent management categories. Taken together, our findings can inform spatially adaptive natural resource management and actions to achieve sustainable development and biodiversity goals. The authors project future rates of temporal and spatial displacement of climate and land-use in protected areas (PAs), and show that more than one-quarter of the world’s PAs are highly threatened, with particular risk to PAs across tropical moist and grassland biomes.

Eastern Australia was subject to its hottest and driest year on record in 2019. This extreme drought resulted in massive canopy die-back in eucalypt forests. The role of hydraulic failure and tree size on canopy die-back in three eucalypt tree species during this drought was examined. We measured pre-dawn and midday leaf water potential (Ψleaf ), per cent loss of stem hydraulic conductivity and quantified hydraulic vulnerability to drought-induced xylem embolism. Tree size and tree health was also surveyed. Trees with most, or all, of their foliage dead exhibited high rates of native embolism (78-100%). This is in contrast to trees with partial canopy die-back (30-70% canopy die-back: 72-78% native embolism), or relatively healthy trees (little evidence of canopy die-back: 25-31% native embolism). Midday Ψleaf was significantly more negative in trees exhibiting partial canopy die-back (-2.7 to -6.3 MPa), compared with relatively healthy trees (-2.1 to -4.5 MPa). In two of the species the majority of individuals showing complete canopy die-back were in the small size classes. Our results indicate that hydraulic failure is strongly associated with canopy die-back during drought in eucalypt forests. Our study provides valuable field data to help constrain models predicting mortality risk.

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (5 km year

Human domination of landscapes is a key driver of biodiversity loss, with the fingerprint of climate change becoming increasingly pronounced. Frameworks and tools for identifying threats to biodiversity are required to meet Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework targets for 2030 that call for, among other things, reducing or halting species extinction rates (1). Hence, we compiled a phylogenetic tree for terrestrial tetrapods, mapped hotspots of geographically restricted and evolutionarily distinct lineages, and identified which hotspots may simultaneously face the highest magnitudes of land use impacts and climate change. Across a quarter of Earth’s surface, hotspots contain the entire ranges of 45% of tetrapods, representing 39% of terrestrial tetrapod evolutionary heritage. By 2070, we estimate 8–13% of this heritage to occur entirely within hotspots highly exposed to climate change, with 13–29% of hotspots projected to experience high exposure to both stressors simultaneously. Most hotspots at highest risk occur in countries least able to take action. Our analysis highlights the need for global ambition and coordination to avoid catastrophic loss of tetrapod evolutionary heritage.

The expansions and contractions of a species' range in response to temporal changes in selective filters leave genetic signatures that can inform a more accurate reconstruction of their evolutionary history across the landscape. After a long period of continental decline, Australian rainforests settled into localized patterns of contraction or expansion during the climatic fluctuations of the Quaternary. The environmental impacts of recurring glacial and interglacial periods also intensified the arrival of new lineages from the Sunda shelf, and it can be expected that immigrant versus locally persistent taxa responded to environmental challenges in quantifiably different manner. To investigate how such differences impact on species' distribution, we contrast landscape genomic patterns and changes in habitat availability between a species with a long continental history on Doryphora sassafras and a Sunda-derived species (Toona ciliata), across a distributional overlap. Extensive landscape-level homogeneity across chloroplast and nuclear genomes for the Sunda-derived T. ciliata, characterize the genetic signature of a very recent invasion and a rapid southern "exploratory" expansion that had not been previously recorded in the Australian flora (i.e., of Gondwanan origin or Sahul-derived). In contrast, D. sassafras is consistent with other Sahul-derived species characterized by strong geographical divergence and regional differentiation. Interestingly, our findings suggest that admixture between genetically divergent populations during expansion events might be a contributing factor to the successful colonization of novel habitats. Overall, this study identifies some of the mechanisms regulating the rearrangements in species distributions and assemblage composition that follow major environmental shifts, and reminds us how a species' current range might not necessarily define species' habitat preference, with the consequence that estimates of past or future range might not always be reliable.

In Bangladesh, rapid population growth and associated land-use changes are escalating water scarcity issues, which will be further exacerbated under ongoing climate change. As such, predicting the consequences of climate and land-use change on freshwater supplies is critical for the sustainable management of water resources. In this study, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with a Land Cover Model (LCM) were used to simulate long-term stream flows in the Halda Basin, Bangladesh, under baseline and future climate and land-use change scenarios. In addition, the separate and combined impacts of both types of change on long-term streamflow projections were assessed. Results indicate that by the 2060s, the maximum temperature of the Halda Basin may rise by 1.6 °C in comparison to the baseline 1986–2005 period, while minimum temperature will also increase, albeit at a lower rate than maximum temperature. Precipitation during the dry season is expected to increase, although it may decline in the monsoon period. Simulations show that these changes in climate are likely to increase future streamflow in the Halda catchment, with monthly streamflow influenced mainly by the variability in precipitation. The LCM projected decreases in grassland along with cultivated land at the expense of artificial areas. Combined, future climate and land-use changes are projected to increase annual streamflow, with climate change likely to be a greater driver of altered streamflow than land-use changes. Our results should guide environmental management authorities in more sustainable and strategic water resource planning under global climate change.

Most catchments in tropical regions are ungauged and data deficient, complicating the simulation of water quantity and quality. Yet, developing and testing hydrological models in data-poor regions ...

Climate refugia—areas that remain suitable for species during periods of climate disruption—have played an important role in species persistence over time. Identifying and protecting these refugia is a key climate change adaptation approach for conservation planning. To identify climate refugia for Australian tropical/sub-tropical rainforest flora, from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2070. Habitat suitability models were calibrated for 30 species using Maxent, and projected onto climate data for: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 22,000 ybp); mid-Holocene (MH, ~ 6000 ybp); current period; and 2070. The intersection of suitable habitat over consecutive periods was assessed, identifying: current refugia (LGM–MH–Current); future refugia (Current–Future); and High Value Refugia (HVR, suitable over all four periods). Refugial hotspots (regions suitable for at least 15 species) were also identified. Suitable habitat was generally projected to span the greatest area in the current period. Four current refugial hotspots were identified: Wet Tropics, Central Mackay Coast, South Eastern Queensland, and North Coast (New South Wales). While suitable habitat for most species may decline in the future, HVRs will likely be retained for all species to at least 2070, although restricted in size. Future refugia was also projected in areas beyond species’ dispersal ranges. HVRs are highly important for the conservation of these rainforest species, given their generation times, limited dispersal capabilities and additional anthropogenic barriers to movement. This study assists in understanding long-term spatial shifts in rainforest flora in response to climate change and in designing future conservation strategies.

Rapid growth in the digitisation of the world’s natural history collections substantially simplifies scientific access to taxonomic and biogeographic information. Despite recent efforts to collate more than two centuries of biodiversity inventories into comprehensive databases, these collections suffer limitations across spatial, temporal and taxonomic dimensions. We assessed taxonomic shortfalls in preserved specimens from 296 plant families native to Australia, for which records have been collated into the Australasian Virtual Herbarium (AVH), specifically addressing the following questions: (1) Based on the number of specimen records per species, which Australian native plant families are under- or over-represented in the collection of preserved specimens digitised in the AVH? (2) To what extent does the distribution of collectors among plant families, or the area occupied by plant families, explain patterns of taxonomic representativeness? We found that the number of preserved specimens per family is not proportional to the family’s known species richness. For 29% of Australia’s plant families (i.e. 86), the number of digitised records constitutes

Climate change presents a substantial threat to species unable to keep pace via migration or adaptation. In-situ climate refugia, areas currently occupied by a species and that remain suitable in the future, will be vital for species with dispersal limitations. Ex-situ refugia, areas beyond species' current ranges that remain suitable, may facilitate range shifts or provide options for translocation. Assessing both refugia is a conservation priority. Here, we identify refugia for 319 species threatened in New South Wales, using four plausible scenarios describing futures that are Warmer/Wetter, Warmer/Drier, Hotter/Wetter and Hotter/Little Precipitation change, relative to the present. Using Maxent, we identify (a) in-situ refugia for each species under each scenario; (b) regions of consensus – areas projected as in-situ refugia across all scenarios; (c) hotspots of in-situ refugia (regions suitable for >1 species); and (d) regions of consensus for ex-situ refugia. Species were categorised based on the extent of in- and ex-situ refugia. By 2070, refugia will likely be broadest, and narrowest, under the Warmer/Wetter and Hotter/Wetter scenarios, respectively. East coast regions currently suitable for multiple species are unlikely to remain as hotspots. Most species (65%) are projected to have limited regions of consensus for either refugia. Translocation should be explored for species with little-to-no in-situ refugia, but for which ex-situ refugia exist. Management of existing populations will be critical for species with in-situ refugia but limited ex-situ. We highlight how management decisions based on agreement across climate scenarios can be made, irrespective of uncertainty about the magnitude of climate change.

Societal Impact Statement Urban forests are recognized for the multiple benefits they provide to city‐dwellers. However, climate change will affect tree species survival and persistence in urban ecosystems. Tree failures will cause economic losses and jeopardize the delivery of societal benefits. The impacts of climate change will depend on the species’ resilience and adaptive capacity, as well as management actions which may ameliorate some of the negative impacts. Here, we assessed the potential vulnerability of Australia's urban forests to climate extremes. Our results can be used for future urban planning aiming to incorporate species that are well‐adapted to the hotter, drier climates expected with climate change. Summary Urban forests (UFs) are recognized for the multiple benefits they provide to city‐dwellers. However, global climate change—particularly predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and drought—will affect tree species’ performance and survival in urban ecosystems. Here, we assessed species composition and potential vulnerability of UFs in 22 Australian significant urban areas (SUAs) to heat and/or moisture stress. We quantified species’ realized climatic niches across their known distribution, and assessed the extent to which baseline climate in the SUAs where a particular species is planted fell within its niche. We used three environmental variables to group species based on their potential climate vulnerability. UFs varied in species composition and climate vulnerability across the continent. In general, neither climate similarity nor geographical proximity were good predictors of species composition among UFs. Of 1,342 tree species assessed (68.4% natives), 53% were considered potentially vulnerable to heat and/or moisture stress in at least one city where they are currently planted. Our results highlight the climate vulnerability of current plantings across Australian SUAs and can be used to direct future species selection that considers the species’ climate of origin and climatic niche. UF planning can incorporate species from SUAs with similar climates and with low vulnerability to contemporary, as well as future climate conditions. Species with high climate vulnerability, in contrast, may require more intensive management to avoid failure under future hotter, drier climate conditions.

Protected areas are the primary strategy for maintaining natural landscapes and separating biodiversity features from preventable anthropogenic threats. The Convention on Biological Diversity calls for the coverage of at least 17% of land by protected areas, and the strategic prioritization of important biodiversity areas. Using the spatially explicit reserve design software, Marxan, this study combines climate refugia modelled under future climates in the year 2070 and bioregions to identify priority sites for protected area expansion under climate change in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Priority sites for new protected areas that meet bioregion and climate refugia targets were identified in central-western, northeast and patches of southeast NSW. Seven existing parks, including Kosciuszko National Park, overlapped with regions identified repeatedly as climate refugia under 12 future climate scenarios. The recommendations from this study support policy-makers in prioritizing the protection of biodiversity under a changing and uncertain climate.

Accelerated loss of Earth’s wilderness over the last five decades underscores the urgency for efforts to retain the conservation value of these areas. Assessing how wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by the future environmental change is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals. Using scenarios of climate and land-use change during baseline (1970–2005) and future (2015–2050) epochs, we found that climate change within wilderness areas is predicted to increase by ~ 47%, compared to a 19% increase in land-use change. Half (52%) of all wilderness areas may undergo climate change by 2050, limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. More significant changes are especially predicted to occur in the unprotected wilderness that supports unique assemblages of species and are therefore more important for biodiversity persistence. Countries with smaller and disconnected wilderness areas are disproportionately at risk from the combined impacts of climate and land-use change. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these frontiers of biodiversity.

Addressing climate change risks requires collaboration and engagement across all sectors of society. In particular, effective partnerships are needed between research scientists producing new knowledge, policy-makers and practitioners who apply conservation actions on the ground. We describe the implementation of a model for increasing the application and useability of biodiversity research in climate adaptation policy and practice. The focus of the program was to increase the ability of a state government agency and natural resource practitioners in Australia to manage and protect biodiversity in a changing climate. The model comprised a five-stage process for enhancing impact (i) initiation of research projects that addressed priority conservation policy and management issues; (ii) co-design of the research using a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders; (iii) implementation of the research and design of decision tools and web-based resources; (iv) collaborative dissemination of the tools and resources via government and community working groups; and (v) evaluation of research impact. We report on the model development and implementation, and critically reflect on the model's impact. We share the lessons learnt from the challenges of operating within a stakeholder group with diverse objectives and criteria for success, and provide a template for creating an environmental research program with real world impact.

Urban forests (i.e. all vegetation present in urban areas), provide environmental and socio-economic benefits to more than half of the global population. Projected climate change threatens these benefits to society. Here, we assess vulnerability to climate change of 16,006 plant species present in the urban forests of 1,010 cities within 93 countries, using three vulnerability metrics: exposure, safety margin and risk. Exposure expresses the magnitude of projected changes in climate in a given area, safety margin measures species' sensitivity to climate change, and risk is the difference between exposure and safety margin. We identified 9,676 (60.5%) and 8,344 (52.1%) species exceeding their current climatic tolerance (i.e. safety margin) for mean annual temperature (MAT) and annual precipitation (AP), respectively. By 2050, 13,479 (84.2%) and 9,960 (62.2%) species are predicted to be at risk from projected changes in MAT and AP, respectively, with risk increasing in cities at lower latitudes. Our results can aid evaluation of the impacts of climate change on urban forests and identify the species most at risk. Considering future climates when selecting species for urban plantings will enhance the long-term societal benefits provided by urban forests, including their contribution to mitigating the magnitude and impacts of climate change.

Expanding protected area networks and enhancing their capacities is currently one avenue at the forefront of efforts to conserve and restore global biodiversity. Climate and habitat loss resulting from land use interact synergistically to undermine the potential benefits of protected areas (PAs). Targeting conservation, adaptation and mitigation efforts requires an understanding of patterns of climate and land-use change within the current arrangement of PAs, and how these might change in the future. In this paper, we provide this understanding using predicted rates of temporal and spatial displacement of future climate and land use globally and within PAs. We show that ~ 47% of the world’s PAs—10.6% of which are under restrictive management—are located in regions that will likely experience both climate stress and land-use instability by 2050. The vast majority of these PAs are also distributed across moist biomes and in high conservation value regions, and fall into less-restrictive management categories. The differential impacts of combined land use and climate velocity across protected biomes indicate that climate and land-use change may have fundamentally different ecological and management consequences at multiple scales. Taken together, our findings can inform spatially adaptive natural resource management and actions to achieve sustainable development and biodiversity goals.

The ENMTools software package was introduced in 2008 as a platform for making measurements on environmental niche models (ENMs, frequently referred to as species distribution models or SDMs), and for using those measurements in the context of newly developed Monte Carlo tests to evaluate hypotheses regarding niche evolution. Additional functionality was later added for model selection and simulation from ENMs, and the software package has been quite widely used. ENMTools was initially implemented as a Perl script, which was also compiled into an executable file for various platforms. However, the package had a number of significant limitations; it was only designed to fit models using Maxent, it relied on a specific Perl distribution to function, and its internal structure made it difficult to maintain and expand. Subsequently, the R programming language became the platform of choice for most ENM studies, making ENMTools less usable for many practitioners. Here we introduce a new R version of ENMTools that implements much of the functionality of its predecessor as well as numerous additions that simplify the construction, comparison and evaluation of niche models. These additions include new metrics for model fit, methods of measuring ENM overlap, and methods for testing evolutionary hypotheses. The new version of ENMTools is also designed to work within the expanding universe of R tools for ecological biogeography, and as such includes greatly simplified interfaces for analyses from several other R packages., DLW was funded by ARC DECRA award # DE140101675 and supported by subsidy funding to OIST. NJM was funded by Marsden grants 16‐UOA‐277 and 18‐UOA‐034, and U. Auckland FRDF #3722433. JCP is funded by a doctoral fellowship supported by the Agencia Canaria de la Investigación, Innovación y Sociedad de la Información and the European Social Fund (Operational Programme of the Canary Islands 2014‐2020). MC acknowledges support from Australian Research Council Discovery Project DP110103168.

Among the many causes of habitat loss, urbanization coupled with climate change has produced some of the greatest local extinction rates and has led to the loss of many native species. Managing native vegetation in a rapidly expanding urban setting requires land management strategies that are cognizant of these impacts and how species and communities may adapt to a future climate. Here, we demonstrate how identifying climate refugia for threatened vegetation communities in an urban matrix can be used to support management decisions by local government authorities under the dual pressures of urban expansion and climate change. This research was focused on a local government area in New South Wales, Australia, that is undergoing significant residential, commercial and agricultural expansion resulting in the transition of native forest to other more intensive land-uses. Our results indicate that the key drivers of change from native vegetation to urban and agriculture classes were population density and the proximity to urban areas. We found two of the most cleared vegetation community types are physically restricted to land owned or managed by council, suggesting their long-term ecological viability is uncertain under a warming climate. We propose that land use planning decisions must recognize the compounding spatial and temporal pressures of urban development, land clearing and climate change, and how current policy responses, such as biodiversity offsetting, can respond positively to habitat shifts in order to secure the longevity of important ecological communities.

Conservation strategies based on charismatic flagship species, such as tigers, lions, and elephants, successfully attract funding from individuals and corporate donors. However, critics of this species-focused approach argue it wastes resources and often does not benefit broader biodiversity. If true, then the best way of raising conservation funds excludes the best way of spending it. Here we show that this conundrum can be resolved, and that the flagship species approach does not impede cost-effective conservation. Through a tailored prioritization approach, we identify places containing flagship species while also maximizing global biodiversity representation (based on 19,616 terrestrial and freshwater species). We then compare these results to scenarios that only maximized biodiversity representation, and demonstrate that our flagship-based approach achieves 79−89% of our objective. This provides strong evidence that prudently selected flagships can both raise funds for conservation and help target where these resources are best spent to conserve biodiversity., Conservation actions focused on flagship species are effective at raising funds and awareness. Here, McGowan et al. show that prioritizing areas for conservation based on the presence of flagship species results in the selection of areas with ~ 79-89% of the total species that would be selected by maximizing biodiversity representation only.

Myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) is an invasive rust fungus that attacks species of the Myrtaceae family, one of the most dominant plant families in Australia. The potential extent of myrtle rust affected areas and the high number of potential host species make a species prioritisation scheme essential to direct conservation and management efforts. This study builds on previous work by: compiling an up-to-date list of myrtle rust occurrences and host species; mapping current and future climate suitability for myrtle rust; and identifying host species at risk based on range overlaps and susceptibility data. Suitable habitat for myrtle rust is restricted to eastern and southern coastal areas of Australia, with minor areas in the Northern Territory and Western Australia. This coastal distribution remains present under future climates, with some extension in inland New South Wales and Tasmania, and a reduction of suitable habitat in northern Queensland and Western Australia. Contrary to previous studies, our results indicate that south-west Western Australia has low climatic suitability for myrtle rust. Under current climate, 1285 Myrtaceae species are at risk of exposure to myrtle rust. This number decreases to 1224 species under future climate. We divide species exposed to myrtle rust into three priority categories, giving highest priority to species with at least 70% of their range overlapping regions climatically suitable for myrtle rust under current or future climates. We find 23 species are of high priority for conservation action. Finally, we provide a series of recommendations for management of species within each priority category.

Anthropogenic climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distributions of pests and invasive species. The Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Qfly), is the most economically damaging insect pest of Australia’s horticultural industry, and its management is a key priority for plant protection and biosecurity. Identifying the extent to which climate change may alter the distribution of suitable habitat for Qfly is important for the development and continuation of effective monitoring programs, phytosanitary measures, and management strategies. We used Maxent, a species distribution model, to map suitable habitat for Qfly under current climate, and six climate scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Our results highlight that south-western Australia, northern regions of the Northern Territory, eastern Queensland, and much of south-eastern Australia are currently suitable for Qfly. This includes southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, which are currently free of breeding populations. There is substantial agreement across future climate scenarios that most areas currently suitable will remain so until at least 2070. Our projections provide an initial estimate of the potential exposure of Australia’s horticultural industry to Qfly as climate changes, highlighting the need for long-term vigilance across southern Australia to prevent further range expansion of this species.

Massive digitization of natural history collections (NHC) has opened the door for researchers to conduct inferential studies on the collection of biological diversity across space and time. The widespread use of NHCs in scientific research makes it essential to characterize potential sources of spatial bias. In this study, we assessed spatial patterns in records from the Australian Virtual Herbarium (AVH), based on >3 000 000 vouchered specimens of around 21 000 native plant species. The AVH is the main database for describing Australia's flora, and identifying its limitations is of paramount interest for the validity of conservation and environmental studies. We characterized how sampling effort is distributed across each Interim Bioregion of Australia (IBRA), then asked: (i) How complete are species inventories for each bioregion? We define completeness (C) as the ratio of observed to estimated species richness, using the Chao 1 estimator, (ii) How is sampling effort related to a commonly used Human Influence Index (HII)? and (iii) What is the probability that additional collections would result in the identification of previously unrecorded species in each bioregion? Sampling effort across bioregions is unequal, which partially reflects the collecting behaviour of naturalists in relation to species richness patterns. The density of records in bioregions ranges from 0.02–8.37 km−2. At the bioregional scale, completeness is generally high with 79% of bioregions estimated to have records for at least 80% of their species. Completeness is partly explained by sampling effort (r = 0.43, p = 0.01), although some bioregions (e.g. Northern Kimberley and Burt Plain) have high completeness yet relatively low sampling effort. The inventory of Hampton, however, is substantially less complete than other bioregions (C = 0.66). Bioregions with high HII consistently have high completeness, while regions with low HII span the full range of completeness values. We calculated that an additional specimen collected from a bioregion has a 0.33% (Wet Tropics) to 11.7% (Arnhem Coast) probability of representing a new species for that region. Our assessment can assist with directing future systematic survey efforts by identifying bioregions where additional surveying may result in the greatest return, in terms of increasing knowledge of species richness and diversity.

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests posing risks to Australia's multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern in Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia's horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution model, Maxent, to assess climate suitability for these 11 species under baseline (1960-1990) and future climate scenarios for Australia. Projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species until at least 2070, with the east coast of Australia also likely to remain vulnerable to multiple species. While the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are projected to have suitable climate for numerous species, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decreases confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of major horticulture areas currently in eastern Queensland, southern-central New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests may increase as climate changes. By highlighting areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future our study may guide Australia's horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.

International audience; Climate change threatens Earth's biodiversity, although its impacts are variable and depend on the capacity of species and ecosystems to cope with the magnitude and speed of change. Natural protected areas (NPAs) constitute potential refugia for species' persistence and for sustaining the provisioning of ecosystem services. Biosphere reserves are NPAs that are less altered by human actions and provide habitat to endemic, threatened or endangered species. Here, we aim to evaluate the threat imposed by climate change on the network of biosphere reserves in Mexico. Focusing on five bioclimatic variables, we computed the climatic space – measured as an n-dimensional hypervolume – of 40 NPAs. Increases in temperature are predicted for all NPAs by 2050, whereas decreases in annual rainfall are predicted for 30 NPAs. By 2050, 31 NPAs that provide habitat to 22,866 recorded species are predicted to lose 100% of their baseline climatic space, shifting to completely novel climates. On average, the other nine NPAs are predicted to lose 55.7% (SD = 26.7%) of their baseline climatic space, while 54.5% (SD = 32.5%) of the future climatic space will be novel. Seventeen NPAs may lose climate variability (homogenization), decreasing species' niches. The extent to which non-analogue conditions will remain within the tolerance of species and ecosystems is currently unknown. Finally, we propose a vulnerability index to categorise NPAs based on their loss of existing climatic space, total geographic area, species richness, and uniqueness of species composition, finding los Tuxtlas and Tiburon Ballena as the most and least vulnerable NPAs, respectively.

Globally, local governments are increasing investment in urban greening projects. However, there is little consideration of whether the species being planted will be resilient to climate change. We assessed the distribution of climatically suitable habitat, now and in the future, for 176 tree species native to Australia, commonly planted across Australia's Significant Urban Areas (SUAs) and currently grown by commercial nurseries. Species' occurrence records were obtained from inventories and herbaria, globally and across Australia, and combined with baseline climate data (WorldClim, 1960-1990) and six climate scenarios for 2030 and 2070 using climatic suitability models (CSMs). CSMs for each species were calibrated and projected onto baseline and future scenarios. We calculated changes in the size of climatically suitable habitat for each species across each SUA, and identified urban areas that are likely to have suitable climate for either fewer or more of our study species under future climate. By 2070, climatically suitable habitat in SUAs is predicted to decline for 73% of species assessed. For 18% of these species, climatically suitable area is predicted to be more than halved, relative to their baseline extent. Generally, for urban areas in cooler regions, climatically suitable habitat is predicted to increase. By contrast, for urban areas in warmer regions, a greater proportion of tree species may lose climatically suitable habitat. Our results highlight changing patterns of urban climatic space for commonly planted species, suggesting that local governments and the horticultural industry should take a proactive approach to identify new climate-ready species for urban plantings.

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests and pose risks to Australia’s multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern present in various regions of Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoniandZeugodacus cucumis), whileB. frauenfeldiandCeratitis capitataare introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australia’s horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution modelling approach, Maxent, to assess habitat suitability for these 11 species under current and future climate scenarios. These projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species. The east coast of Australia will likely remain vulnerable to multiple species until at least 2070. Both the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are also likely to be vulnerable, however, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decrease confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of current major horticulture regions in north-western Australia, the Northern Territory, southern-central regions of New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests is projected to increase as climate changes. Our study highlights areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future, to guide Australia’s horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.

Species distribution models (SDMs) frequently project substantial declines in the spatial extent of climatically suitable habitat in response to scenarios of future climate change. Such projections are highly disconcerting. Yet, considerable variation can occur in the direction and magnitude of range changes projected by different SDM methods, even when predictive performance is similar. In this study, we assessed whether particular methods have a tendency to predict substantial loss or gain of suitable habitat. In particular, we asked, “are 14 SDM methods equally likely to predict extreme changes to the future extent of suitable habitat for 220 Australian mammal species?”. We defined five non-mutually exclusive categories of ‘extreme’ change, based on stability or loss of current habitat, or the dislocation of current and future habitat: a) no future habitat (range extinction); b) low stability of current habitat (≤10% remains); c) no gain of habitat in new locations; d) all future habitat is in new locations (i.e. completely displaced from current habitat); and e) substantial increase in size of habitat (future habitat is ≥100% larger than current). We found that some SDM methods were significantly more likely than others to predict extreme changes. In particular, distance-based models were significantly less likely than other methods to predict substantial increases in habitat size; Random Forest models and Surface Range Envelopes were significantly more likely to predict a complete loss of current habitat, and future range extinction. Generalised Additive Models and Generalised Linear Models rarely predicted range extinction; future habitat completely disjunct from current habitat was predicted more frequently than expected by Classification Tree Analysis and less frequently by Maxent. Random Forest generally predicted extreme range changes more frequently than other SDM methods. Our results identify trends among different methods with respect to tendency to predict extreme range changes. These are of significance for climate-impact assessments, with implications for transferability of models to novel environments. Our findings emphasise the need to explore and justify the use of different models and their parameterisations, and to develop approaches to assist with optimisation of models.

Establishing corridors of connecting habitat has become a mainstay conservation strategy to maintain gene flow and facilitate climate‐driven range shifts. Yet, little attention has been given to ascertaining the extent to which corridors will benefit philopatric species, which might exhibit localized adaptation. Measures of genetic connectivity and adaptive genetic variation across species’ ranges can help fill this knowledge gap. Here, we characterized the spatial genetic structure of Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami), a philopatric species distributed along Australia's Great Dividing Range, and assessed evidence of localized adaptation. Analysis of 4,274 SNPs from 94 individuals sampled at four localities spanning 500 km and 4° of latitude revealed strong genetic structuring at neutral loci (mean F ST ± SD = 0.603 ± 0.237) among the localities. Putatively neutral SNPs and those under divergent selection yielded contrasting spatial patterns, with the latter identifying two genetically distinct clusters. Given low genetic connectivity of the four localities, we suggest that the natural movement rate of this species is insufficient to keep pace with spatial shifts to its climate envelope, irrespective of habitat availability. In addition, our finding of localized adaptation highlights the risk of outbreeding depression should the translocation of individuals be adopted as a conservation management strategy.

One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change-driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Nino, La Nina, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Nino (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Nina. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair-wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life-history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet- and dry-season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Nino events increase.

Aim: Understanding mechanisms that enhance survival outside the usual range of a taxonomic group is key to understanding diversity gradients, how range boundaries operate and how environmental change might influence geographical distributions. Our aims were: (1) to identify species-level traits associated with reef-building coral species whose ranges extend into high-latitude, non-reefal habitats (i.e. 'beyond reef'), (2) determine if these patterns were consistent in different global regions, and (3) determine if traits associated with living beyond reef were related to enhanced dispersal or tolerance to harsher environmental conditions. Location: Three regions of the Central Indo-Pacific with tropical-temperate gradients from 35 degrees N to 36 degrees S. Methods: Scleractinian coral richness was collated and analysed as a function of latitude, region and whether or not reef accretion occurred. Species traits that are hypothesized to contribute to living beyond the environmental limits of carbonate reef accretion were compiled; these included traits associated with dispersal potential and environmental tolerance. The contribution of species traits to presence beyond reefs was then quantified using a binomial generalized linear mixed effects model. Results: In each region, coral species richness dropped by up to 73% where reef accretion ceased. Compared with corals restricted to coral reefs, the subset of species extending beyond reefs shared common traits related to environmental tolerance (larger depth ranges, more robust morphologies and tolerance of turbid water), but not to dispersal potential. Patterns were mostly consistent among regions. Main conclusions: We show for the first time that coral species living successfully in beyond-reef habitats share common characteristics that are consistent in three global regions. Environmental tolerance appears to play the dominant role in determining which species successfully establish beyond reefs. Our trait-based approach sheds light on how species assemblages and ranges might be altered by environmental change or loss of reef habitats.

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. We introduce the uniquely cloud-based Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), which provides access to numerous species distribution modelling tools; a large and growing collection of biological, climate, and other environmental datasets; and a variety of experiment types to conduct research into the impact of climate change on biodiversity.Users can upload and share datasets, potentially increasing collaboration, cross-fertilisation of ideas, and innovation among the user community. Feedback confirms that the BCCVL's goals of lowering the technical requirements for species distribution modelling, and reducing time spent on such research, are being met. BCCVL facilitates and expedites modelling of climate change's impact on biodiversity.BCCVL integrates numerous species distribution modelling tools and myriad datasets.BCCVL negates the need for advanced programming and modelling expertise.BCCVL allows for increases in productivity and complexity of experimental design.BCCVL facilitates the sharing of data promoting transparency in the research process.

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