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We propose the first Bayesian methods for detecting change points in high-dimensional mean and covariance structures. These methods are constructed using pairwise Bayes factors, leveraging modularization to identify significant changes in individual components efficiently. We establish that the proposed methods consistently detect and estimate change points under much milder conditions than existing approaches in the literature. Additionally, we demonstrate that their localization rates are nearly optimal in terms of rates. The practical performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through extensive simulation studies, where they are compared to state-of-the-art techniques. The results show comparable or superior performance across most scenarios. Notably, the methods effectively detect change points whenever signals of sufficient magnitude are present, irrespective of the number of signals. Finally, we apply the proposed methods to genetic and financial datasets, illustrating their practical utility in real-world applications.

In this work, we explore the theoretical properties of conditional deep generative models under the statistical framework of distribution regression where the response variable lies in a high-dimensional ambient space but concentrates around a potentially lower-dimensional manifold. More specifically, we study the large-sample properties of a likelihood-based approach for estimating these models. Our results lead to the convergence rate of a sieve maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for estimating the conditional distribution (and its devolved counterpart) of the response given predictors in the Hellinger (Wasserstein) metric. Our rates depend solely on the intrinsic dimension and smoothness of the true conditional distribution. These findings provide an explanation of why conditional deep generative models can circumvent the curse of dimensionality from the perspective of statistical foundations and demonstrate that they can learn a broader class of nearly singular conditional distributions. Our analysis also emphasizes the importance of introducing a small noise perturbation to the data when they are supported sufficiently close to a manifold. Finally, in our numerical studies, we demonstrate the effective implementation of the proposed approach using both synthetic and real-world datasets, which also provide complementary validation to our theoretical findings., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1708.06633 by other authors

We consider a class of conditional forward-backward diffusion models for conditional generative modeling, that is, generating new data given a covariate (or control variable). To formally study the theoretical properties of these conditional generative models, we adopt a statistical framework of distribution regression to characterize the large sample properties of the conditional distribution estimators induced by these conditional forward-backward diffusion models. Here, the conditional distribution of data is assumed to smoothly change over the covariate. In particular, our derived convergence rate is minimax-optimal under the total variation metric within the regimes covered by the existing literature. Additionally, we extend our theory by allowing both the data and the covariate variable to potentially admit a low-dimensional manifold structure. In this scenario, we demonstrate that the conditional forward-backward diffusion model can adapt to both manifold structures, meaning that the derived estimation error bound (under the Wasserstein metric) depends only on the intrinsic dimensionalities of the data and the covariate.

We introduce the nested stochastic block model (NSBM) to cluster a collection of networks while simultaneously detecting communities within each network. NSBM has several appealing features including the ability to work on unlabeled networks with potentially different node sets, the flexibility to model heterogeneous communities, and the means to automatically select the number of classes for the networks and the number of communities within each network. This is accomplished via a Bayesian model, with a novel application of the nested Dirichlet process (NDP) as a prior to jointly model the between-network and within-network clusters. The dependency introduced by the network data creates nontrivial challenges for the NDP, especially in the development of efficient samplers. For posterior inference, we propose several Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms including a standard Gibbs sampler, a collapsed Gibbs sampler, and two blocked Gibbs samplers that ultimately return two levels of clustering labels from both within and across the networks. Extensive simulation studies are carried out which demonstrate that the model provides very accurate estimates of both levels of the clustering structure. We also apply our model to two social network datasets that cannot be analyzed using any previous method in the literature due to the anonymity of the nodes and the varying number of nodes in each network.

In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian inference method for a high-dimensional sparse factor model that allows both the factor dimensionality and the sparse structure of the loading matrix to be inferred. The novelty is to introduce a certain dependence between the sparsity level and the factor dimensionality, which leads to adaptive posterior concentration while keeping computational tractability. We show that the posterior distribution asymptotically concentrates on the true factor dimensionality, and more importantly, this posterior consistency is adaptive to the sparsity level of the true loading matrix and the noise variance. We also prove that the proposed Bayesian model attains the optimal detection rate of the factor dimensionality in a more general situation than those found in the literature. Moreover, we obtain a near-optimal posterior concentration rate of the covariance matrix. Numerical studies are conducted and show the superiority of the proposed method compared with other competitors.

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty through the posterior distribution. Practical posterior computation is commonly performed via MCMC, which can be computationally infeasible for high dimensional models with many observations. In this article we discuss the potential to improve posterior computation using ideas from machine learning. Concrete future directions are explored in vignettes on normalizing flows, Bayesian coresets, distributed Bayesian inference, and variational inference.

A classic inferential statistical problem is the goodness-of-fit (GOF) test. Such a test can be challenging when the hypothesized parametric model has an intractable likelihood and its distributional form is not available. Bayesian methods for GOF can be appealing due to their ability to incorporate expert knowledge through prior distributions. However, standard Bayesian methods for this test often require strong distributional assumptions on the data and their relevant parameters. To address this issue, we propose a semi-Bayesian nonparametric (semi-BNP) procedure in the context of the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) measure that can be applied to the GOF test. Our method introduces a novel Bayesian estimator for the MMD, enabling the development of a measure-based hypothesis test for intractable models. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed test outperforms frequentist MMD-based methods by achieving a lower false rejection and acceptance rate of the null hypothesis. Furthermore, we showcase the versatility of our approach by embedding the proposed estimator within a generative adversarial network (GAN) framework. It facilitates a robust BNP learning approach as another significant application of our method. With our BNP procedure, this new GAN approach can enhance sample diversity and improve inferential accuracy compared to traditional techniques., Comment: Typos corrected, Secondary (simulation and theoretical) results added, Additional discussion added, references added

We propose extrinsic and intrinsic deep neural network architectures as general frameworks for deep learning on manifolds. Specifically, extrinsic deep neural networks (eDNNs) preserve geometric features on manifolds by utilizing an equivariant embedding from the manifold to its image in the Euclidean space. Moreover, intrinsic deep neural networks (iDNNs) incorporate the underlying intrinsic geometry of manifolds via exponential and log maps with respect to a Riemannian structure. Consequently, we prove that the empirical risk of the empirical risk minimizers (ERM) of eDNNs and iDNNs converge in optimal rates. Overall, The eDNNs framework is simple and easy to compute, while the iDNNs framework is accurate and fast converging. To demonstrate the utilities of our framework, various simulation studies, and real data analyses are presented with eDNNs and iDNNs.

We propose an extrinsic Bayesian optimization (eBO) framework for general optimization problems on manifolds. Bayesian optimization algorithms build a surrogate of the objective function by employing Gaussian processes and quantify the uncertainty in that surrogate by deriving an acquisition function. This acquisition function represents the probability of improvement based on the kernel of the Gaussian process, which guides the search in the optimization process. The critical challenge for designing Bayesian optimization algorithms on manifolds lies in the difficulty of constructing valid covariance kernels for Gaussian processes on general manifolds. Our approach is to employ extrinsic Gaussian processes by first embedding the manifold onto some higher dimensional Euclidean space via equivariant embeddings and then constructing a valid covariance kernel on the image manifold after the embedding. This leads to efficient and scalable algorithms for optimization over complex manifolds. Simulation study and real data analysis are carried out to demonstrate the utilities of our eBO framework by applying the eBO to various optimization problems over manifolds such as the sphere, the Grassmannian, and the manifold of positive definite matrices.

The increasing prevalence of network data in a vast variety of fields and the need to extract useful information out of them have spurred fast developments in related models and algorithms. Among the various learning tasks with network data, community detection, the discovery of node clusters or "communities," has arguably received the most attention in the scientific community. In many real-world applications, the network data often come with additional information in the form of node or edge covariates that should ideally be leveraged for inference. In this paper, we add to a limited literature on community detection for networks with covariates by proposing a Bayesian stochastic block model with a covariate-dependent random partition prior. Under our prior, the covariates are explicitly expressed in specifying the prior distribution on the cluster membership. Our model has the flexibility of modeling uncertainties of all the parameter estimates including the community membership. Importantly, and unlike the majority of existing methods, our model has the ability to learn the number of the communities via posterior inference without having to assume it to be known. Our model can be applied to community detection in both dense and sparse networks, with both categorical and continuous covariates, and our MCMC algorithm is very efficient with good mixing properties. We demonstrate the superior performance of our model over existing models in a comprehensive simulation study and an application to two real datasets.

We propose optimal Bayesian two-sample tests for testing equality of high-dimensional mean vectors and covariance matrices between two populations. In many applications including genomics and medical imaging, it is natural to assume that only a few entries of two mean vectors or covariance matrices are different. Many existing tests that rely on aggregating the difference between empirical means or covariance matrices are not optimal or yield low power under such setups. Motivated by this, we develop Bayesian two-sample tests employing a divide-and-conquer idea, which is powerful especially when the difference between two populations is sparse but large. The proposed two-sample tests manifest closed forms of Bayes factors and allow scalable computations even in high-dimensions. We prove that the proposed tests are consistent under relatively mild conditions compared to existing tests in the literature. Furthermore, the testable regions from the proposed tests turn out to be optimal in terms of rates. Simulation studies show clear advantages of the proposed tests over other state-of-the-art methods in various scenarios. Our tests are also applied to the analysis of the gene expression data of two cancer data sets.

Adversarial examples can easily degrade the classification performance in neural networks. Empirical methods for promoting robustness to such examples have been proposed, but often lack both analytical insights and formal guarantees. Recently, some robustness certificates have appeared in the literature based on system theoretic notions. This work proposes an incremental dissipativity-based robustness certificate for neural networks in the form of a linear matrix inequality for each layer. We also propose an equivalent spectral norm bound for this certificate which is scalable to neural networks with multiple layers. We demonstrate the improved performance against adversarial attacks on a feed-forward neural network trained on MNIST and an Alexnet trained using CIFAR-10.

In this work, we propose a scalable Bayesian procedure for learning the local dependence structure in a high-dimensional model where the variables possess a natural ordering. The ordering of variables can be indexed by time, the vicinities of spatial locations, and so on, with the natural assumption that variables far apart tend to have weak correlations. Applications of such models abound in a variety of fields such as finance, genome associations analysis and spatial modeling. We adopt a flexible framework under which each variable is dependent on its neighbors or predecessors, and the neighborhood size can vary for each variable. It is of great interest to reveal this local dependence structure by estimating the covariance or precision matrix while yielding a consistent estimate of the varying neighborhood size for each variable. The existing literature on banded covariance matrix estimation, which assumes a fixed bandwidth cannot be adapted for this general setup. We employ the modified Cholesky decomposition for the precision matrix and design a flexible prior for this model through appropriate priors on the neighborhood sizes and Cholesky factors. The posterior contraction rates of the Cholesky factor are derived which are nearly or exactly minimax optimal, and our procedure leads to consistent estimates of the neighborhood size for all the variables. Another appealing feature of our procedure is its scalability to models with large numbers of variables due to efficient posterior inference without resorting to MCMC algorithms. Numerical comparisons are carried out with competitive methods, and applications are considered for some real datasets.

In this paper, we explore adaptive inference based on variational Bayes. Although several studies have been conducted to analyze the contraction properties of variational posteriors, there is still a lack of a general and computationally tractable variational Bayes method that performs adaptive inference. To fill this gap, we propose a novel adaptive variational Bayes framework, which can operate on a collection of models. The proposed framework first computes a variational posterior over each individual model separately and then combines them with certain weights to produce a variational posterior over the entire model. It turns out that this combined variational posterior is the closest member to the posterior over the entire model in a predefined family of approximating distributions. We show that the adaptive variational Bayes attains optimal contraction rates adaptively under very general conditions. We also provide a methodology to maintain the tractability and adaptive optimality of the adaptive variational Bayes even in the presence of an enormous number of individual models, such as sparse models. We apply the general results to several examples, including deep learning and sparse factor models, and derive new and adaptive inference results. In addition, we characterize an implicit regularization effect of variational Bayes and show that the adaptive variational posterior can utilize this.

In this work, we propose to train a graph neural network via resampling from a graphon estimate obtained from the underlying network data. More specifically, the graphon or the link probability matrix of the underlying network is first obtained from which a new network will be resampled and used during the training process at each layer. Due to the uncertainty induced from the resampling, it helps mitigate the well-known issue of over-smoothing in a graph neural network (GNN) model. Our framework is general, computationally efficient, and conceptually simple. Another appealing feature of our method is that it requires minimal additional tuning during the training process. Extensive numerical results show that our approach is competitive with and in many cases outperform the other over-smoothing reducing GNN training methods.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly., Comment: 42 pages, 13 figures, 1 table

In this paper, we propose a new spectral-based approach to hypothesis testing for populations of networks. The primary goal is to develop a test to determine whether two given samples of networks come from the same random model or distribution. Our test statistic is based on the trace of the third order for a centered and scaled adjacency matrix, which we prove converges to the standard normal distribution as the number of nodes tends to infinity. The asymptotic power guarantee of the test is also provided. The proper interplay between the number of networks and the number of nodes for each network is explored in characterizing the theoretical properties of the proposed testing statistics. Our tests are applicable to both binary and weighted networks, operate under a very general framework where the networks are allowed to be large and sparse, and can be extended to multiple-sample testing. We provide an extensive simulation study to demonstrate the superior performance of our test over existing methods and apply our test to three real datasets.

We propose a general scheme for solving convex and non-convex optimization problems on manifolds. The central idea is that, by adding a multiple of the squared retraction distance to the objective function in question, we "convexify" the objective function and solve a series of convex sub-problems in the optimization procedure. One of the key challenges for optimization on manifolds is the difficulty of verifying the complexity of the objective function, e.g., whether the objective function is convex or non-convex, and the degree of non-convexity. Our proposed algorithm adapts to the level of complexity in the objective function. We show that when the objective function is convex, the algorithm provably converges to the optimum and leads to accelerated convergence. When the objective function is non-convex, the algorithm will converge to a stationary point. Our proposed method unifies insights from Nesterov's original idea for accelerating gradient descent algorithms with recent developments in optimization algorithms in Euclidean space. We demonstrate the utility of our algorithms on several manifold optimization tasks such as estimating intrinsic and extrinsic Fr\'echet means on spheres and low-rank matrix factorization with Grassmann manifolds applied to the Netflix rating data set.

Hypergraph data appear and are hidden in many places in the modern age. They are data structure that can be used to model many real data examples since their structures contain information about higher order relations among data points. One of the main contributions of our paper is to introduce a new topological structure to hypergraph data which bears a resemblance to a usual metric space structure. Using this new topological space structure of hypergraph data, we propose several approaches to study community detection problem, detecting persistent features arising from homological structure of hypergraph data. Also based on the topological space structure of hypergraph data introduced in our paper, we introduce a modified nearest neighbors methods which is a generalization of the classical nearest neighbors methods from machine learning. Our modified nearest neighbors methods have an advantage of being very flexible and applicable even for discrete structures as in hypergraphs. We then apply our modified nearest neighbors methods to study sign prediction problem in hypegraph data constructed using our method.

A weighted directed network (WDN) is a directed graph in which each edge is associated to a unique value called weight. These networks are very suitable for modeling real-world social networks in which there is an assessment of one vertex toward other vertices. One of the main problems studied in this paper is prediction of edge weights in such networks. We introduce, for the first time, a metric geometry approach to studying edge weight prediction in WDNs. We modify a usual notion of WDNs, and introduce a new type of WDNs which we coin the term \textit{almost-weighted directed networks} (AWDNs). AWDNs can capture the weight information of a network from a given training set. We then construct a class of metrics (or distances) for AWDNs which equips such networks with a metric space structure. Using the metric geometry structure of AWDNs, we propose modified $k$ nearest neighbors (kNN) methods and modified support-vector machine (SVM) methods which will then be used to predict edge weights in AWDNs. In many real-world datasets, in addition to edge weights, one can also associate weights to vertices which capture information of vertices; association of weights to vertices especially plays an important role in graph embedding problems. Adopting a similar approach, we introduce two new types of directed networks in which weights are associated to either a subset of origin vertices or a subset of terminal vertices . We, for the first time, construct novel classes of metrics on such networks, and based on these new metrics propose modified $k$NN and SVM methods for predicting weights of origins and terminals in these networks. We provide experimental results on several real-world datasets, using our geometric methodologies.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) play a crucial role in studying a vast number of problems in science and engineering. Numerically solving nonlinear and/or high-dimensional PDEs is often a challenging task. Inspired by the traditional finite difference and finite elements methods and emerging advancements in machine learning, we propose a sequence deep learning framework called Neural-PDE, which allows to automatically learn governing rules of any time-dependent PDE system from existing data by using a bidirectional LSTM encoder, and predict the next n time steps data. One critical feature of our proposed framework is that the Neural-PDE is able to simultaneously learn and simulate the multiscale variables.We test the Neural-PDE by a range of examples from one-dimensional PDEs to a high-dimensional and nonlinear complex fluids model. The results show that the Neural-PDE is capable of learning the initial conditions, boundary conditions and differential operators without the knowledge of the specific form of a PDE system.In our experiments the Neural-PDE can efficiently extract the dynamics within 20 epochs training, and produces accurate predictions. Furthermore, unlike the traditional machine learning approaches in learning PDE such as CNN and MLP which require vast parameters for model precision, Neural-PDE shares parameters across all time steps, thus considerably reduces the computational complexity and leads to a fast learning algorithm.

We consider a sparse linear regression model with unknown symmetric error under the high-dimensional setting. The true error distribution is assumed to belong to the locally $\beta$-H\"{o}lder class with an exponentially decreasing tail, which does not need to be sub-Gaussian. We obtain posterior convergence rates of the regression coefficient and the error density, which are nearly optimal and adaptive to the unknown sparsity level. Furthermore, we derive the semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem to characterize asymptotic shape of the marginal posterior for regression coefficients. Under the sub-Gaussianity assumption on the true score function, strong model selection consistency for regression coefficients are also obtained, which eventually asserts the frequentist's validity of credible sets.

In this work, we propose to employ information-geometric tools to optimize a graph neural network architecture such as the graph convolutional networks. More specifically, we develop optimization algorithms for the graph-based semi-supervised learning by employing the natural gradient information in the optimization process. This allows us to efficiently exploit the geometry of the underlying statistical model or parameter space for optimization and inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that has utilized the natural gradient for the optimization of graph neural networks that can be extended to other semi-supervised problems. Efficient computations algorithms are developed and extensive numerical studies are conducted to demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithms over existing algorithms such as ADAM and SGD.

We study Bayesian estimation of finite mixture models in a general setup where the number of components is unknown and allowed to grow with the sample size. An assumption on growing number of components is a natural one as the degree of heterogeneity present in the sample can grow and new components can arise as sample size increases, allowing full flexibility in modeling the complexity of data. This however will lead to a high-dimensional model which poses great challenges for estimation. We novelly employ the idea of a sample size dependent prior in a Bayesian model and establish a number of important theoretical results. We first show that under mild conditions on the prior, the posterior distribution concentrates around the true mixing distribution at a near optimal rate with respect to the Wasserstein distance. Under a separation condition on the true mixing distribution, we further show that a better and adaptive convergence rate can be achieved, and the number of components can be consistently estimated. Furthermore, we derive optimal convergence rates for the higher-order mixture models where the number of components diverges arbitrarily fast. In addition, we suggest a simple recipe for using Dirichlet process (DP) mixture prior for estimating the finite mixture models and provide theoretical guarantees. In particular, we provide a novel solution for adopting the number of clusters in a DP mixture model as an estimate of the number of components in a finite mixture model. Simulation study and real data applications are carried out demonstrating the utilities of our method., Comment: To appear in Bernoulli

We propose a robust and scalable procedure for general optimization and inference problems on manifolds leveraging the classical idea of `median-of-means' estimation. This is motivated by ubiquitous examples and applications in modern data science in which a statistical learning problem can be cast as an optimization problem over manifolds. Being able to incorporate the underlying geometry for inference while addressing the need for robustness and scalability presents great challenges. We address these challenges by first proving a key lemma that characterizes some crucial properties of geometric medians on manifolds. In turn, this allows us to prove robustness and tighter concentration of our proposed final estimator in a subsequent theorem. This estimator aggregates a collection of subset estimators by taking their geometric median over the manifold. We illustrate bounds on this estimator via calculations in explicit examples. The robustness and scalability of the procedure is illustrated in numerical examples on both simulated and real data sets.

While the study of a single network is well-established, technological advances now allow for the collection of multiple networks with relative ease. Increasingly, anywhere from several to thousands of networks can be created from brain imaging, gene co-expression data, or microbiome measurements. And these networks, in turn, are being looked to as potentially powerful features to be used in modeling. However, with networks being non-Euclidean in nature, how best to incorporate them into standard modeling tasks is not obvious. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian modeling framework that provides a unified approach to binary classification, anomaly detection, and survival analysis with network inputs. We encode the networks in the kernel of a Gaussian process prior via their pairwise differences and we discuss several choices of provably positive definite kernel that can be plugged into our models. Although our methods are widely applicable, we are motivated here in particular by microbiome research (where network analysis is emerging as the standard approach for capturing the interconnectedness of microbial taxa across both time and space) and its potential for reducing preterm delivery and improving personalization of prenatal care.

Shape-constrained inference has wide applicability in bioassay, medicine, economics, risk assessment, and many other fields. Although there has been a large amount of work on monotone-constrained univariate curve estimation, multivariate shape-constrained problems are much more challenging, and fewer advances have been made in this direction. With a focus on monotone regression with multiple predictors, this current work proposes a projection approach to estimate a multiple monotone regression function. An initial unconstrained estimator -- such as a local polynomial estimator or spline estimator -- is first obtained, which is then projected onto the shape-constrained space. A shape-constrained estimate (with multiple predictors) is obtained by sequentially projecting an (adjusted) initial estimator along each univariate direction. Compared to the initial unconstrained estimator, the projection estimate results in a reduction of estimation error in terms of both $L^p$ ($p\geq 1$) distance and supremum distance. We also derive the asymptotic distribution of the projection estimate. Simple computational algorithms are available for implementing the projection in both the unidimensional and higher dimensional cases. Our work provides a simple recipe for practitioners to use in real applications, and is illustrated with a joint-action example from environmental toxicology.

It has become an increasingly common practice for scientists in modern science and engineering to collect samples of multiple network data in which a network serves as a basic data object. The increasing prevalence of multiple network data calls for developments of models and theory that can deal with inference problems for populations of networks. In this work, we propose a general procedure for hypothesis testing of networks and in particular, for differentiating distributions of two samples of networks. We consider a very general framework which allows us to perform tests on large and sparse networks. Our contribution is two-fold: (1) We propose a test statistics based on the singular value of a generalized Wigner matrix. The asymptotic null distribution of the statistics is shown to follow the Tracy--Widom distribution as the number of nodes tends to infinity. The test also yields asymptotic power guarantee with the power tending to one under the alternative; (2) The test procedure is adapted for change-point detection in dynamic networks which is proven to be consistent in detecting the change-points. In addition to theoretical guarantees, another appealing feature of this adapted procedure is that it provides a principled and simple method for selecting the threshold that is also allowed to vary with time. Extensive simulation studies and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our procedure with competitors.

We propose a general approach for change-point detection in dynamic networks. The proposed method is model-free and covers a wide range of dynamic networks. The key idea behind our approach is to effectively utilize the network structure in designing change-point detection algorithms. This is done via an initial step of graphon estimation, where we propose a modified neighborhood smoothing~(MNBS) algorithm for estimating the link probability matrices of a dynamic network. Based on the initial graphon estimation, we then develop a screening and thresholding algorithm for multiple change-point detection in dynamic networks. The convergence rate and consistency for the change-point detection procedure are derived as well as those for MNBS. When the number of nodes is large~(e.g., exceeds the number of temporal points), our approach yields a faster convergence rate in detecting change-points comparing with an algorithm that simply employs averaged information of the dynamic network across time. Numerical experiments demonstrate robust performance of the proposed algorithm for change-point detection under various types of dynamic networks, and superior performance over existing methods is observed. A real data example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness and practical impact of the procedure.

Multiplex networks have become increasingly more prevalent in many fields, and have emerged as a powerful tool for modeling the complexity of real networks. There is a critical need for developing inference models for multiplex networks that can take into account potential dependencies across different layers, particularly when the aim is community detection. We add to a limited literature by proposing a novel and efficient Bayesian model for community detection in multiplex networks. A key feature of our approach is the ability to model varying communities at different network layers. In contrast, many existing models assume the same communities for all layers. Moreover, our model automatically picks up the necessary number of communities at each layer (as validated by real data examples). This is appealing, since deciding the number of communities is a challenging aspect of community detection, and especially so in the multiplex setting, if one allows the communities to change across layers. Borrowing ideas from hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we use a hierarchical Dirichlet prior to model community labels across layers, allowing dependency in their structure. Given the community labels, a stochastic block model (SBM) is assumed for each layer. We develop an efficient slice sampler for sampling the posterior distribution of the community labels as well as the link probabilities between communities. In doing so, we address some unique challenges posed by coupling the complex likelihood of SBM with the hierarchical nature of the prior on the labels. An extensive empirical validation is performed on simulated and real data, demonstrating the superior performance of the model over single-layer alternatives, as well as the ability to uncover interesting structures in real networks., Comment: 27 pages, 11 figures

We propose an exact slice sampler for Hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) and its associated mixture models (Teh et al., 2006). Although there are existing MCMC algorithms for sampling from the HDP, a slice sampler has been missing from the literature. Slice sampling is well-known for its desirable properties including its fast mixing and its natural potential for parallelization. On the other hand, the hierarchical nature of HDPs poses challenges to adopting a full-fledged slice sampler that automatically truncates all the infinite measures involved without ad-hoc modifications. In this work, we adopt the powerful idea of Bayesian variable augmentation to address this challenge. By introducing new latent variables, we obtain a full factorization of the joint distribution that is suitable for slice sampling. Our algorithm has several appealing features such as (1) fast mixing; (2) remaining exact while allowing natural truncation of the underlying infinite-dimensional measures, as in (Kalli et al., 2011), resulting in updates of only a finite number of necessary atoms and weights in each iteration; and (3) being naturally suited to parallel implementations. The underlying principle for joint factorization of the full likelihood is simple and can be applied to many other settings, such as designing sampling algorithms for general dependent Dirichlet process (DDP) models.

In this paper, we study the high-dimensional sparse directed acyclic graph (DAG) models under the empirical sparse Cholesky prior. Among our results, strong model selection consistency or graph selection consistency is obtained under more general conditions than those in the existing literature. Compared to Cao, Khare and Ghosh (2017), the required conditions are weakened in terms of the dimensionality, sparsity and lower bound of the nonzero elements in the Cholesky factor. Furthermore, our result does not require the irrepresentable condition, which is necessary for Lasso type methods. We also derive the posterior convergence rates for precision matrices and Cholesky factors with respect to various matrix norms. The obtained posterior convergence rates are the fastest among those of the existing Bayesian approaches. In particular, we prove that our posterior convergence rates for Cholesky factors are the minimax or at least nearly minimax depending on the relative size of true sparseness for the entire dimension. The simulation study confirms that the proposed method outperforms the competing methods.

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian process is first imposed on the regression function whose posterior distribution is then projected onto the bounded space. The resulting projected measure is then used for inference. The projected sample path has closed form which facilitates efficient computations. In particular, our projection approach maintains a comparable computational efficiency with that of the original GP. The proposed method yield predictions that respects bound constraints everywhere, while allows varying bounds across the input domain. An extensive simulation study is carried out which demonstrates that the performance of our approach dominates that of the competitors. An application to real data set is also considered.

The last decade has witnessed an explosion in the development of models, theory and computational algorithms for "big data" analysis. In particular, distributed computing has served as a natural and dominating paradigm for statistical inference. However, the existing literature on parallel inference almost exclusively focuses on Euclidean data and parameters. While this assumption is valid for many applications, it is increasingly more common to encounter problems where the data or the parameters lie on a non-Euclidean space, like a manifold for example. Our work aims to fill a critical gap in the literature by generalizing parallel inference algorithms to optimization on manifolds. We show that our proposed algorithm is both communication efficient and carries theoretical convergence guarantees. In addition, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithm to the estimation of Fr\'echet means on simulated spherical data and the low-rank matrix completion problem over Grassmann manifolds applied to the Netflix prize data set., Comment: 15 pages

The innovation school system in South Korea has been developed in response to the traditional high-pressure school system in South Korea, with a view to cultivating a bottom-up and student-centered educational culture. Despite its ambitious goals, questions have been raised about the success of the innovation school system. Leveraging data from the Gyeonggi Education Panel Study (GEPS) along with advances in the statistical analysis of network data and educational data, we compare the two school systems in more depth. We find that some schools are indeed different from others, and those differences are not detected by conventional multilevel models. Having said that, we do not find much evidence that the innovation school system differs from the regular school system in terms of self-reported mental well-being, although we do detect differences among some schools that appear to be unrelated to the school system.

Distance plays a fundamental role in measuring similarity between objects. Various visualization techniques and learning tasks in statistics and machine learning such as shape matching, classification, dimension reduction and clustering often rely on some distance or similarity measure. It is of tremendous importance to have a distance that can incorporate the underlying structure of the object. In this paper, we focus on proposing such a distance between network objects. Our key insight is to define a distance based on the long term diffusion behavior of the whole network. We first introduce a dynamic system on graphs called Laplacian flow. Based on this Laplacian flow, a new version of diffusion distance between networks is proposed. We will demonstrate the utility of the distance and its advantage over various existing distances through explicit examples. The distance is also applied to subsequent learning tasks such as clustering network objects.

Hypothesis testing of structure in covariance matrices is of significant importance, but faces great challenges in high-dimensional settings. Although consistent frequentist one-sample covariance tests have been proposed, there is a lack of simple, computationally scalable, and theoretically sound Bayesian testing methods for large covariance matrices. Motivated by this gap and by the need for tests that are powerful against sparse alternatives, we propose a novel testing framework based on the maximum pairwise Bayes factor. Our initial focus is on one-sample covariance testing; the proposed test can {\it optimally} distinguish null and alternative hypotheses in a frequentist asymptotic sense. We then propose diagonal tests and a scalable covariance graph selection procedure that are shown to be consistent. A simulation study evaluates the proposed approach relative to competitors. We illustrate advantages of our graph selection method on a gene expression data set.

Assuming a banded structure is one of the common practice in the estimation of high-dimensional precision matrix. In this case, estimating the bandwidth of the precision matrix is a crucial initial step for subsequent analysis. Although there exist some consistent frequentist tests for the bandwidth parameter, bandwidth selection consistency for precision matrices has not been established in a Bayesian framework. In this paper, we propose a prior distribution tailored to the bandwidth estimation of high-dimensional precision matrices. The banded structure is imposed via the Cholesky factor from the modified Cholesky decomposition. We establish the strong model selection consistency for the bandwidth as well as the consistency of the Bayes factor. The convergence rates for Bayes factors under both the null and alternative hypotheses are derived which yield similar order of rates. As a by-product, we also proposed an estimation procedure for the Cholesky factors yielding an almost optimal order of convergence rates. Two-sample bandwidth test is also considered, and it turns out that our method is able to consistently detect the equality of bandwidths between two precision matrices. The simulation study confirms that our method in general outperforms the existing frequentist and Bayesian methods.

We propose a class of intrinsic Gaussian processes (in-GPs) for interpolation, regression and classification on manifolds with a primary focus on complex constrained domains or irregular shaped spaces arising as subsets or submanifolds of R, R2, R3 and beyond. For example, in-GPs can accommodate spatial domains arising as complex subsets of Euclidean space. in-GPs respect the potentially complex boundary or interior conditions as well as the intrinsic geometry of the spaces. The key novelty of the proposed approach is to utilise the relationship between heat kernels and the transition density of Brownian motion on manifolds for constructing and approximating valid and computationally feasible covariance kernels. This enables in-GPs to be practically applied in great generality, while existing approaches for smoothing on constrained domains are limited to simple special cases. The broad utilities of the in-GP approach is illustrated through simulation studies and data examples.

This article provides an exposition of recent methodologies for nonparametric analysis of digital observations on images and other non-Euclidean objects. Fr\'echet means of distributions on metric spaces, such as manifolds and stratified spaces, have played an important role in this endeavor. Apart from theoretical issues of uniqueness of the Fr\'echet minimizer and the asymptotic distribution of the sample Fr\'echet mean under uniqueness, applications to image analysis are highlighted. In addition, nonparametric Bayes theory is brought to bear on the problems of density estimation and classification on manifolds.

It is becoming increasingly common to see large collections of network data objects -- that is, data sets in which a network is viewed as a fundamental unit of observation. As a result, there is a pressing need to develop network-based analogues of even many of the most basic tools already standard for scalar and vector data. In this paper, our focus is on averages of unlabeled, undirected networks with edge weights. Specifically, we (i) characterize a certain notion of the space of all such networks, (ii) describe key topological and geometric properties of this space relevant to doing probability and statistics thereupon, and (iii) use these properties to establish the asymptotic behavior of a generalized notion of an empirical mean under sampling from a distribution supported on this space. Our results rely on a combination of tools from geometry, probability theory, and statistical shape analysis. In particular, the lack of vertex labeling necessitates working with a quotient space modding out permutations of labels. This results in a nontrivial geometry for the space of unlabeled networks, which in turn is found to have important implications on the types of probabilistic and statistical results that may be obtained and the techniques needed to obtain them., Comment: This version contains two extensions of the main result on the uniqueness of the Fr\'echet mean, and has added references to related work