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Modeling and accurately forecasting trend and seasonal patterns of a time series is a crucial activity in economics. The main propose of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance of three traditional forecasting methods, namely the ARIMA models and their extensions, the classical decomposition time series associated with multiple linear regression models with correlated errors, and the Holt–Winters method. These methodologies are applied to retail time series from seven different European countries that present strong trend and seasonal fluctuations. In general, the results indicate that all the forecasting models somehow follow the seasonal pattern exhibited in the data. Based on mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and U-Theil statistic, the results demonstrate the superiority of the ARIMA model over the other two forecasting approaches. Holt–Winters method also produces accurate forecasts, so it is considered a viable alternative to ARIMA. The performance of the forecasting methods in terms of coverage rates matches the results for accuracy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Novel Eu2+,3+/Yb3+ co-doping calcium aluminosilicate glasses prepared under a vacuum atmosphere were developed and characterized from the spectroscopic point of view, as a potential spectral converter for application in solar cells. The emission of near-infrared photons by downconversion due to cooperative energy transfer (ET) from Eu2+ and Eu3+ to Yb3+ in these glasses was reported. Absorption, excitation, emission, and fluorescence decay measurements were performed to examine the ET processes. The occurrence of cooperative energy transfer from Eu2+ and/or Eu3+ to Yb3+ ions was discussed in detail. The obtained samples have high efficiency and broad absorption in the ultraviolet and visible regions. Under 325 nm excitation, the samples achieve intense near-infrared emission, which increases with Yb2O3 concentration (0 < Yb2O3 < 1.38 mol. %). The energy transfer efficiency from Eu2+,3+ to Yb3+ was evaluated, and a maximum efficiency of ∼85% was obtained (Yb2O3 = 1.38 mol. %). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Raw milk and colostrum can harbor dangerous microorganisms that can pose serious health risks for animals and humans. According to the USDA, more than 58% of calves in the United States are fed unpasteurized milk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of UV light on reduction of bacteria in milk and colostrum, and on colostrum IgG. A pilot-scale UV light continuous (UVC) flow-through unit (45 J/cm(2)) was used to treat milk and colostrum. Colostrum and sterile whole milk were inoculated with Listeria innocua, Mycobacterium smegmatis, Salmonella serovar Typhimurium, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus agalactiae, and Acinetobacter baumannii before being treated with UVC. During UVC treatment, samples were collected at 5 time points and bacteria were enumerated using selective media. The effect of UVC on IgG was evaluated using raw colostrum from a nearby dairy farm without the addition of bacteria. For each colostrum batch, samples were collected at several different time points and IgG was measured using ELISA. The UVC treatment of milk resulted in a significant final count (log cfu/mL) reduction of Listeria monocytogenes (3.2 ± 0.3 log cfu/mL reduction), Salmonella spp. (3.7 ± 0.2 log cfu/mL reduction), Escherichia coli (2.8 ± 0.2 log cfu/mL reduction), Staph. aureus (3.4 ± 0.3 log cfu/mL reduction), Streptococcus spp. (3.4 ± 0.4 log cfu/mL reduction), and A. baumannii (2.8 ± 0.2 log cfu/mL reduction). The UVC treatment of milk did not result in a significant final count (log cfu/mL) reduction for M. smegmatis (1.8 ± 0.5 log cfu/mL reduction). The UVC treatment of colostrum was significantly associated with a final reduction of bacterial count (log cfu/mL) of Listeria spp. (1.4 ± 0.3 log cfu/mL reduction), Salmonella spp. (1.0 ± 0.2 log cfu/mL reduction), and Acinetobacter spp. (1.1 ± 0.3 log cfu/mL reduction), but not of E. coli (0.5 ± 0.3 log cfu/mL reduction), Strep. agalactiae (0.8 ± 0.2 log cfu/mL reduction), and Staph. aureus (0.4 ± 0.2 log cfu/mL reduction). The UVC treatment of colostrum significantly decreased the IgG concentration, with an observed final mean IgG reduction of approximately 50%. Development of new methods to reduce bacterial contaminants in colostrum must take into consideration the barriers imposed by its opacity and organic components, and account for the incidental damage to IgG caused by manipulating colostrum.

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Optical losses are the major drawback to overcome in the solar energy industry and development. Conversion of solar radiation into heat accounts for over 80% of the incident solar energy, which is driven by several aspects like the chosen design and encapsulation of the devices, built-in materials, and the mismatch between the solar spectrum and the active cell's bandgap energy. Photoacoustic (PA) and photothermal (PT) methods are characterization techniques based on the heat generation after the illumination of a material and respective detection. Since the beginning of the solar panel industrial development, these methods have been successfully applied to evaluate the photovoltaic efficiency of devices and the thermophysical parameters of related materials. Here, we present the state-of-art of application of these PA and PT methods to characterize solar cell devices and their built-in materials. Historical aspects, conceptual mechanisms of the basic phenomena, and perspectives on their application for energy-conversion measurements in the new frontier of solar cell research will be discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floral scent is a key olfactory cue in both diurnal and nocturnal pollination systems. In the case of nocturnal systems, such as bat‐pollinated flowers, odour seems to play a more important role than visual cues. Cactaceae include many bat‐pollinated species; however, few studies have investigated the olfactory cues in this family.We analysed and compared the chemical composition of the floral bouquet of three chiropterophilous cactus species, among which are a pair of congeners that differ considerably in scent intensity.Our research presents novel findings regarding the floral scent chemistry of chiropterophilous cactus species. We documented the first case of a bat‐pollinated cactus whose flowers lack perceptible floral scent and in which no volatile compounds were detected in our chemical analyses. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the chemical composition of the floral bouquet of the other two bat‐pollinated species, revealing a resemblance among closely related species within the same genus.We highlight the need for further studies using biotests to investigate the mechanisms through which bats find flowers lacking scent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]