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Processes allowing coexistence of trees and grasses in tropical savannas have long intrigued ecologists. Early theories focused on climatic controls, but a conceptual model has emerged suggesting that savanna trees are subject to a fire-mediated recruitment bottleneck, with frequent fires preventing recruitment of saplings into the tree layer and maintaining biomass well below its climate-determined upper bound. We propose that this conceptual model has been overemphasised in northern Australia, where tree abundance is more strongly controlled by water availability. The dominant trees, eucalypts, have a remarkable capacity to grow through the ‘fire trap’ to reach fire-resistant sizes. This fire tolerance makes eucalypts relatively unresponsive to management-imposed reductions in fire frequency and intensity. Other trees in these savannas are typically more fire sensitive and respond positively to such management. There are suggestions that savanna fire management could lead to increases in woody biomass, but we contend that if tree biomass is strongly limited by water availability, then potential increases in tree biomass are relatively limited, at least in relation to the dominant eucalypt component. There is potential to increase the biomass of the more fire-sensitive non-eucalypts, but the upper bound of non-eucalypt tree biomass in these eucalypt-dominated systems remains poorly understood.

Invasive species pose a substantial risk to native biodiversity. As distributions of invasive species shift in response to changes in climate so will management priorities and investment. To develop cost-effective invasive species management strategies into the future it is necessary to understand how species distributions are likely to change over time and space. For most species however, few data are available on their current distributions, let alone projected future distributions. We demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for projecting distributions of invasive species under various climate futures, when empirical data are lacking. Using the introduced pasture species, buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) in Australia as an example, we employ a framework by which expert knowledge and available empirical data are used to build a BN. The framework models the susceptibility and suitability of the Australian continent to buffel grass colonization using three invasion requirements; the introduction of plant propagules to a site, the establishment of new plants at a site, and the persistence of established, reproducing populations. Our results highlight the potential for buffel grass management to become increasingly important in the southern part of the continent, whereas in the north conditions are projected to become less suitable. With respect to biodiversity impacts, our modelling suggests that the risk of buffel grass invasion within Australia’s National Reserve System is likely to increase with climate change as a result of the high number of reserves located in the central and southern portion of the continent. In situations where data are limited, we find BNs to be a flexible and inexpensive tool for incorporating existing process-understanding alongside bioclimatic and edaphic variables for projecting future distributions of species invasions

In this study, systematic variation in tree morphology across a rainfall gradient in Australia's tropical savanna biome and its implications for carbon stocks and dynamics were quantified. The aim was to support efforts to manage fire regimes to increase vegetative carbon stocks as a greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. The height of trees for a given trunk diameter declines with decreasing rainfall from 2000 to 300 mm and increasing dry season length across the Australian savanna biome. It is likely that increasing dry season length is the main driver of this decline rather declining rainfall per se. By taking account of the response of total basal area to rainfall and soil type, stand structure, and tree height and diameter relationships, the carbon stocks in live trees were estimated to decline from about 34 t ha−1 in the wetter savannas to 6 t ha−1 in the drier savannas. These values are broadly consistent with field-based estimates. Because of the declining ratio of height to trunk diameter, trees of a given diameter in drier regions will be more likely to be killed by fires of a given intensity than trees in wetter regions. Thus single fires of given intensity are likely to have a greater proportionate impact on live tree carbon stock in drier savannas, but a much greater absolute impact in wetter savannas due to the greater total carbon stock. Projected decreases in early wet season rainfall under climate change scenarios, despite projections of little change in total precipitation in northern Australia, may lead to decreased carbon stock in live trees through two mechanisms: a reduction in total basal area and decreases in tree height for given trunk diameters.

We propose and demonstrate a new approach for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography, and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any earth system model. The approach is encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP). We demonstrate the behavior and performance of POP coupled to the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE) applied along the Northern Australian Tropical Transect, featuring gradients in rainfall and fire disturbance. The model is able to simultaneously reproduce observation-based estimates of key functional and structural variables along the transect, namely gross primary production, tree foliage projective cover, basal area, and maximum tree height. Prospects for the use of POP to address current vegetation dynamic deficiencies in earth system modeling are discussed.

The stock, rates of sequestration and allocation of carbon were estimated for trees in 14 0.1-ha plots at Kapalga in Kakadu National Park, Northern Territory, using new allometric relationships of carbon stock to stem cross-sectional area and measured growth rates of trees. Carbon stocks of trees ranged from 12 to 58 t ha(-1), with sequestration representing similar to 9% of the total stocks. More than half of the sequestered carbon is allocated to leaves and twigs and similar to 20% to wood. Only similar to 25% is retained in the live trees with leaf and twig fall accounting for 80 - 84% of the total transfers to the environment. An alternative method of calculating sequestration rates from consideration of water use and carbon-isotope discrimination data had a close to 1 : 1 match with estimates from allometric relationships. We developed and applied algorithms to predict the impacts of. re on carbon stocks of live trees. This showed that the reduction in live carbon stocks caused by single fires increased with increasing intensity, but the impact was highly dependent on the tree stand structure.