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We compile and analyze all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database of 419 sites and generate an accompanying spatial map. This database includes 290 sites previously reported by the International Heat Flow Commission (IHFC), for which we now standardize measurement and metadata quality. This database also includes 129 new sites, which have not been previously reported by the IHFC. These new sites consist of 88 offshore measurements and 41 onshore measurements, of which 24 are subglacial. We employ machine learning to synthesize these in situ measurements into a gridded geothermal heat flow model that is consistent across both continental and marine areas in and around Greenland. This model has a native horizontal resolution of 55 km. In comparison to five existing Greenland geothermal heat flow models, our model has the lowest mean geothermal heat flow for Greenland onshore areas. Our modeled heat flow in central North Greenland is highly sensitive to whether the NGRIP (North GReenland Ice core Project) elevated heat flow anomaly is included in the training dataset. Our model's most distinctive spatial feature is pronounced low geothermal heat flow (< 40 mW m−2) across the North Atlantic Craton of southern Greenland. Crucially, our model does not show an area of elevated heat flow that might be interpreted as remnant from the Icelandic plume track. Finally, we discuss the substantial influence of paleoclimatic and other corrections on geothermal heat flow measurements in Greenland. The in situ measurement database and gridded heat flow model, as well as other supporting materials, are freely available from the GEUS Dataverse (https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/F9P03L; Colgan and Wansing, 2021).

At the starting point of this case study, a garrison hospital performed an assessment of the need for treatment when the number of conscripts queuing at reception is at its highest level. The research aims to find out the reasons for conscripts’ perceived long waiting times, which causes absence from the conscripts’ training. According to the predictions made by the queuing simulation, the hospital’s staff are able to receive patients arriving at reception in the morning without the queue time causing undue harm to training. However, during large congestion peaks, the waiting times may become unreasonable, which would require an increase in human resources. Peaks of congestion usually occur at the beginning of the week, as well as on days with heavy military training.

The second version of the coupled Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) is presented and evaluated. NorESM2 is based on the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) and shares with CESM2 the computer code infrastructure and many Earth system model components. However, NorESM2 employs entirely different ocean and ocean biogeochemistry models. The atmosphere component of NorESM2 (CAM-Nor) includes a different module for aerosol physics and chemistry, including interactions with cloud and radiation; additionally, CAM-Nor includes improvements in the formulation of local dry and moist energy conservation, in local and global angular momentum conservation, and in the computations for deep convection and air–sea fluxes. The surface components of NorESM2 have minor changes in the albedo calculations and to land and sea-ice models. We present results from simulations with NorESM2 that were carried out for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Two versions of the model are used: one with lower (∼ 2∘) atmosphere–land resolution and one with medium (∼ 1∘) atmosphere–land resolution. The stability of the pre-industrial climate and the sensitivity of the model to abrupt and gradual quadrupling of CO2 are assessed, along with the ability of the model to simulate the historical climate under the CMIP6 forcings. Compared to observations and reanalyses, NorESM2 represents an improvement over previous versions of NorESM in most aspects. NorESM2 appears less sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than its predecessors, with an estimated equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.5 K in both resolutions on a 150-year time frame; however, this estimate increases with the time window and the climate sensitivity at equilibration is much higher. We also consider the model response to future scenarios as defined by selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project defined under CMIP6. Under the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the warming in the period 2090–2099 compared to 1850–1879 reaches 1.3, 2.2, 3.0, and 3.9 K in NorESM2-LM, and 1.3, 2.1, 3.1, and 3.9 K in NorESM-MM, robustly similar in both resolutions. NorESM2-LM shows a rather satisfactory evolution of recent sea-ice area. In NorESM2-LM, an ice-free Arctic Ocean is only avoided in the SSP1-2.6 scenario.

Wildfire occurrence is influenced by climate, vegetation and human activities. A key challenge for understanding the risk of fires is quantifying the mediating effect of vegetation on fire regimes. Here, we explore the relative importance of Holocene land cover, land use, dominant functional forest type, and climate dynamics on biomass burning in temperate and boreo-nemoral regions of central and eastern Europe over the past 12 kyr. We used an extensive data set of Holocene pollen and sedimentary charcoal records, in combination with climate simulations and statistical modelling. Biomass burning was highest during the early Holocene and lowest during the mid-Holocene in all three ecoregions (Atlantic, continental and boreo-nemoral) but was more spatially variable over the past 3–4 kyr. Although climate explained a significant variance in biomass burning during the early Holocene, tree cover was consistently the highest predictor of past biomass burning over the past 8 kyr. In temperate forests, biomass burning was high at ∼45 % tree cover and decreased to a minimum at between 60 % and 70 % tree cover. In needleleaf-dominated forests, biomass burning was highest at ∼ 60 %–65 % tree cover and steeply declined at >65 % tree cover. Biomass burning also increased when arable lands and grasslands reached ∼ 15 %–20 %, although this relationship was variable depending on land use practice via ignition sources, fuel type and quantities. Higher tree cover reduced the amount of solar radiation reaching the forest floor and could provide moister, more wind-protected microclimates underneath canopies, thereby decreasing fuel flammability. Tree cover at which biomass burning increased appears to be driven by warmer and drier summer conditions during the early Holocene and by increasing human influence on land cover during the late Holocene. We suggest that long-term fire hazard may be effectively reduced through land cover management, given that land cover has controlled fire regimes under the dynamic climates of the Holocene.

Study questionDo endometrial stromal fibroblasts (eSF) in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) (eSFpcos) exhibit altered estrogen and/or progesterone (P4) responses, which may explain some of the adverse reproductive outcomes and endometrial pathologies in these women?Summary answerIn vitro, eSF from women with PCOS exhibit an aberrant decidualization response and concomitant changes in pro-inflammatory cytokine, chemokine and matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) release and immune cell chemoattraction. In vivo these aberrations may result in suboptimal implantation and predisposition to endometrial cancer.What is known alreadyThe endometrium in women with PCOS has several abnormalities including progesterone (P4) resistance at the gene expression level, likely contributing to subfertility, pregnancy complications and increased endometrial cancer risk in PCOS women.Study design, size, durationProspective, university-based, case-control, in vitro study.Participants/materials, setting, methodsCultures of eSFPCOS (n = 12, Rotterdam and NIH criteria) and eSFControl (Ctrl) (n = 6, regular cycle length, no signs of hyperandrogenism) were treated with vehicle, estradiol (E2, 10 nM) or E2P4 (10 nM/1 μM) for 14 days. Progesterone receptor (PGR) mRNA was assessed with quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) and eSF decidualization was confirmed by insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) transcript and protein expression. Fractalkine (CX3CL1), granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interleukin (IL) 6, 8 and 11, macrophage chemoattractant protein (MCP) 1 and 3, CCL5 (RANTES) and MMPs (MMP1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 and 12) were measured in conditioned media by Luminex multiplex assays, and chemotactic activity of the conditioned media was tested in a migration assay using CD14+ monocyte and CD4+ T-cell migration assay. Effects of IL-6 (0.02, 0.2, 2 or 20 ng/ml) or IL-8 (0.04, 0.4, 4, or 40 ng/ml) or combination (0.2 ng/ml IL-6 and 4.0 ng/ml IL-8) on 14-d decidualization were also tested. ANOVA with pre-planned contrasts was used for statistical analysis.Main results and the role of chanceHormonal challenge with E2P4 to induce decidualization revealed two distinct subsets of eSFPCOS. Eight eSFPCOS (dPCOS) and all eSFCtrl (dCtrl) cultures showed a normal decidualization response to E2P4 as determined by morphology and IGFBP-1 secretion. However, 4 eSFPCOS cultures showed blunted decidualization (ndPCOS) in morphological assessment and low IGFBP-1 levels even though all three groups exhibited normal estrogen-mediated increase in PGR expression. Interestingly dPCOS had decreased IL-6 and GM-SCF secretion compared with dCtrl, whereas the ndPCOS cultures showed increased IL-6 and 8, MCP1, RANTES and GM-CSF secretion at base-line and/or in response to E2 or E2P4 compared with dCtrl and/or dPCOS. Furthermore, even though PGR expression was similar in all three groups, P4 inhibition of MMP secretion was attenuated in ndPCOS resulting in higher MMP2 and 3 levels. The conditioned media from ndPCOS had increased chemoattractic activity compared with dCtrl and dPCOS media. Exogenously added IL-6 and/or 8 did not inhibit decidualization in eSFCtrl indicating that high levels of these cytokines in ndPCOS samples were not likely a cause for the aberrant decidualization.Limitations, reasons for cautionThis is an in vitro study with a small sample size, utilizing stromal cell cultures from proliferative and secretory phase endometrium. The effect of PCOS on endometrial epithelium, another major histoarchitectural cell compartment of the endometrium, was not evaluated and should be considered in future studies. Furthermore, results obtained should also be confirmed in a larger data set and with mid/late secretory phase in vivo samples and models.Wider implications of the findingsThe alterations seen in ndPCOS may contribute to endometrial dysfunction, subfertility and pregnancy complications in PCOS women. The results emphasize the importance of understanding immune responses related to the implantation process and normal endometrial homeostasis in women with PCOS.Study funding/competing interestsSigrid Juselius Foundation, Academy of Finland, Finnish Medical Foundation, Orion-Farmos Research Foundation (to T.T.P.), the NIH Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) U54HD 055764-07 Specialized Cooperative Centers Program in Reproduction and Infertility Research (to L.C.G.), the NICHD the Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Awards grant 1F32HD074423-03 (to J.C.C.). The authors have no competing interests.

Vegetation is crucial for modulating rates of denudation and landscape evolution, as it stabilizes and protects hillslopes and intercepts rainfall. Climate conditions and the atmospheric CO2 concentration, hereafter [CO2], influence the establishment and performance of plants; thus, these factors have a direct influence on vegetation cover. In addition, vegetation dynamics (competition for space, light, nutrients, and water) and stochastic events (mortality and fires) determine the state of vegetation, response times to environmental perturbations and successional development. In spite of this, state-of-the-art reconstructions of past transient vegetation changes have not been accounted for in landscape evolution models. Here, a widely used dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) was used to simulate vegetation composition/cover and surface runoff in Chile for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene (MH) and the present day (PD). In addition, transient vegetation simulations were carried out from the LGM to PD for four sites in the Coastal Cordillera of Chile at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for coupling with landscape evolution models.A new landform mode was introduced to LPJ-GUESS to enable a better simulation of vegetation dynamics and state at a sub-pixel resolution and to allow for future coupling with landscape evolution models operating at different spatial scales. Using a regionally adapted parameterization, LPJ-GUESS was capable of reproducing PD potential natural vegetation along the strong climatic gradients of Chile, and simulated vegetation cover was also in line with satellite-based observations. Simulated vegetation during the LGM differed markedly from PD conditions. Coastal cold temperate rainforests were displaced northward by about 5° and the tree line and vegetation zones were at lower elevations than PD. Transient vegetation simulations indicate a marked shift in vegetation composition starting with the past glacial warming that coincides with a rise in [CO2]. Vegetation cover between the sites ranged from 13 % (LGM: 8 %) to 81 % (LGM: 73 %) for the northern Pan de Azúcar and southern Nahuelbuta sites, respectively, but did not vary by more than 10 % over the 21 000 year simulation. A sensitivity study suggests that [CO2] is an important driver of vegetation changes and, thereby, potentially landscape evolution. Comparisons with other paleoclimate model drivers highlight the importance of model input on simulated vegetation.In the near future, we will directly couple LPJ-GUESS to a landscape evolution model (see companion paper) to build a fully coupled dynamic-vegetation/landscape evolution model that is forced with paleoclimate data from atmospheric general circulation models.

It is well known that ice sheet–climate feedbacks are essential for realistically simulating the spatiotemporal evolution of continental ice sheets over glacial–interglacial cycles. However, many of these feedbacks are dependent on the ice sheet thickness, which is poorly constrained by proxy data records. For example, height estimates of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) topography at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼ 21 000 years ago) vary by more than 1 km among different ice sheet reconstructions. In order to better constrain the LIS elevation it is therefore important to understand how the mean climate is influenced by elevation discrepancies of this magnitude. Here we use an atmospheric circulation model coupled to a slab-ocean model to analyze the LGM surface temperature response to a broad range of LIS elevations (from 0 to over 4 km). We find that raising the LIS topography induces a widespread surface warming in the Arctic region, amounting to approximately 1.5 °C per km of elevation increase, or about 6.5 °C for the highest LIS. The warming is attributed to an increased poleward energy flux by atmospheric stationary waves, amplified by surface albedo and water vapor feedbacks, which account for about two-thirds of the total temperature response. These results suggest a strong feedback between continental-scale ice sheets and the Arctic temperatures that may help constrain LIS elevation estimates for the LGM and explain differences in ice distribution between the LGM and earlier glacial periods.

Coupled climate–ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

Modeling studies have shown that the continental-scale ice sheets in North America and Eurasia in the last glacial cycle had a large influence on the atmospheric circulation and thus yielded a climate distinctly different from the present. However, to what extent the two ice sheets influenced each others' growth trajectories remains largely unexplored. In this study we investigate how an ice sheet in North America influences the downstream evolution of the Eurasian ice sheet, using a thermomechanical ice-sheet model forced by climate data from atmospheric snapshot experiments of three distinctly different phases of the last glacial cycle: the Marine Isotope Stages 5b, 4, and 2 (Last Glacial Maximum – LGM). Owing to the large uncertainty associated with glacial changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, each atmospheric snapshot experiment was conducted using two distinctly different ocean heat transport representations. Our results suggest that changes in the North American paleo-topography may have largely controlled the zonal distribution of the Eurasian ice sheet. In the MIS4 and LGM experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet migrates westward towards the Atlantic sector – largely consistent with geological data and contemporary ice-sheet reconstructions – due to a low wave number stationary wave response, which yields a cooling in Europe and a warming in northeastern Siberia. The expansion of the North American ice sheet between MIS4 and the LGM amplifies the Siberian warm anomaly, which limits the glaciation there and may therefore help explain the progressive westward migration of the Eurasian ice sheet in this time period. The ocean heat transport only has a small influence on the stationary wave response to the North American glacial topography; however, because temperature anomalies have a smaller influence on an ice sheet's ablation in a colder climate than in a warmer one, the impact of the North American glacial topography on the Eurasian ice-sheet evolution is reduced for colder surface conditions in the North Atlantic. While the Eurasian ice sheet in the MIS4 and the LGM experiments appears to be in equilibrium with the simulated climate conditions, the MIS5b climate forcing is too warm to grow an ice sheet in Eurasia. First-order sensitivity experiments suggest that the MIS5b ice sheet was established during preceding colder stages.

At the starting point of this case study, a garrison hospital performed an assessment of the need for treatment when the number of conscripts queuing at reception is at its highest level. The research aims to find out the reasons for conscripts' perceived long waiting times, which causes absence from the conscripts' training. According to the predictions made by the queuing simulation, the hospital's staff are able to receive patients arriving at reception in the morning without the queue time causing undue harm to training. However, during large congestion peaks, the waiting times may become unreasonable, which would require an increase in human resources. Peaks of congestion usually occur at the beginning of the week, as well as on days with heavy military training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE:Intrinsic inflammatory characteristics play a pivotal role in stem cell recruitment and homing through migration where the subsequent change in niche has been shown to alter these characteristics. The bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (bmMSCs) have been demonstrated to migrate to the endometrium contributing to the stem cell reservoir and regeneration of endometrial tissue. Thus, the aim of the present study was to compare the inflammation-driven migration and cytokine secretion profile of human bmMSCs to endometrial mesenchymal stem cells (eMSCs) and endometrial fibroblasts (eSFs). MATERIALS AND METHODS:The bmMSCs were isolated from bone marrow aspirates through culturing, whereas eMSCs and eSFs were FACS-isolated. All cell types were tested for their surface marker, proliferation profiles and migration properties towards serum and inflammatory attractants. The cytokine/chemokine secretion profile of 35 targets was analysed in each cell type at basal level along with lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced state. RESULTS:Both stem cell types, bmMSCs and eMSCs, presented with similar stem cell surface marker profiles as well as possessed high proliferation and migration potential compared to eSFs. In multiplex assays, the secretion of 16 cytokine targets was detected and LPS stimulation expanded the cytokine secretion pattern by triggering the secretion of several targets. The bmMSCs exhibited higher cytokine secretion of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)-A, stromal cell-derived factor-1 alpha (SDF)-1α, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), IL-6, interferon-gamma inducible protein (IP)-10, monocyte chemoattractant protein (MCP)-1, macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)1α and RANTES compared to eMSCs and/or eSFs after stimulation with LPS. The basal IL-8 secretion was higher in both endometrial cell types compared to bmMSCs. CONCLUSION:Our results highlight that similar to bmMSCs, the eMSCs possess high migration activity while the differentiation process towards stromal fibroblasts seemed to result in loss of stem cell surface markers, minimal migration activity and a subtler cytokine profile likely contributing to normal endometrial function.

This study examines mutual interactions between stationary waves and ice sheets using a dry atmospheric primitive-equation model coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. The emphasis is on how non-linear interactions between thermal and topographical forcing of the stationary waves influence the ice-sheet evolution by changing the ablation. Simulations are conducted in which a small ice cap, on an idealised Northern Hemisphere continent, evolves to an equilibrium continental-scale ice sheet. In the absence of stationary waves, the equilibrium ice sheet arrives at symmetric shape with a zonal equatorward margin. In isolation, the topographically induced stationary waves have essentially no impact on the equilibrium features of the ice sheet. The reason is that the temperature anomalies are located far from the equatorward ice margin. When forcing due to thermal cooling is added to the topographical forcing, thermally induced perturbation winds amplify the topographically induced stationary-wave response, which that serves to increase both the equatorward extent and the volume of the ice sheet. Roughly, a 10% increase in the ice volume is reported here. Hence, the present study suggests that the topographically induced stationary-wave response can be substantially enhanced by the high albedo of ice sheets.