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The Attrition Rate Model is a model of how and at what rate individuals leave fallout shelters. This document is a description of the model and the methodology used to develop it. In addition, this document serves as a user's guide to the application of the model. Two complete examples are presented--a pencil-and-paper study of fallout casualties in a representative Soviet city, and an application to a red-on-blue SIDAC scenario. The complete programs necessary to run the SIDAC post-processor are also included.

A study was conducted to determine whether opaque obstructions located in an observer's upper field of view would affect the visual detection of briefly illuminated targets located above his horizontal line of sight. Five versions of an acrylic visor considered for use with a helmet-mounted sight and display (HMS/D) contained one or more opaque areas located above their horizontal axes. Target detection performance for 12 subjects using the experimental visors was compared with the subjects' performance using an unobstructed control visor. Target appearance was signalled by a central cue light for six subjects (directed search), while the other six subjects were forced to rely only on peripheral detection of the briefly illuminated targets (undirected search). It was found that target detection performance was unaffected by either visor obstructions or by method of search, or any combination of the two. It was concluded that any of the visors would be usable from a visual performance standpoint. (Author)

The bibliography and access to sources is an outgrowth of the program, Behavioral Aspects of Fallout Shelter Stay (DNA 4628Z). The objective of the program is to explore the time civilian populations can be expected to stay in fallout shelters after a nuclear exchange. The bibliography lists the studies and research used as sources in the preparation of the DNA study. (Author)

A major assumption underlying the calculation of casualties from a nuclear exchange concerns the time civilian populations can be expected to stay in fallout shelters. Presently, two general guidelines are used: (1) one week of shelter stay followed by two weeks of partial shelter occupancy and, (2) a two day shelter stay followed by three days of partial shelter occupancy. The objective of this program is to explore the nature of these assumptions using behavioral sciences data. Systematic quantitative estimates of shelter stay times can be obtained from an empirical data base. Length of shelter stay is dependent on a variety of variables the most important being degree of preparedness. Generally, post attack behavior will be the range considered normal. The use of quantitative estimates of fallout shelter stay time reduces the variability associated with predicting the human factor in strategic simulations. (Author)

This memorandum provides the researcher with a current bibliography on decision aiding and decision making in man/computer systems. Since decision- aiding overlaps the huge technical area encompassed by decision-making, the literature collected has been selective. Thus, a study included in the bibliography must have met one of the following criteria: (1) Contains a working decision aid in a man/computer decision-making environment; (2) Contains a model of decision making, from which an aid can be derived; (3) Contains useful information on tactical information processing; and/or (4) Contains useful information on methodological aspects of decision aiding in man/computer contexts. Papers were chosen primarily from post-1960 materials derived from Published scientific studies, industrial and governmental technical reports, or Unpublished reports of research in progress.