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Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction in boreal spring and summer months, which contains a significant number of high-signal events, is scientifically challenging and prediction skill has remained poor for years. Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring observed surface temperatures show a lag correlation with summer precipitation in several remote regions, but current global land-atmosphere coupled models are unable to represent this behavior due to significant errors in producing observed TP surface temperatures. To address these issues, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program launched the "Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction"(LS4P) initiative as a community effort to test the impact of land temperature in high-mountain regions on S2S prediction by climate models: more than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this project. After using an innovative new land state initialization approach based on observed surface 2-m temperature over the TP in the LS4P experiment, results from a multimodel ensemble provide evidence for a causal relationship in the observed association between the Plateau spring land temperature and summer precipitation over several regions across the world through teleconnections. The influence is underscored by an out-of-phase oscillation between the TP and Rocky Mountain surface temperatures. This study reveals for the first time that high-mountain land temperature could be a substantial source of S2S precipitation predictability, and its effect is probably as large as ocean surface temperature over global "hotspot"regions identified here; the ensemble means in some "hotspots"produce more than 40% of the observed anomalies. This LS4P approach should stimulate more follow-on explorations.

Abstract. Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging but has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called Impact of initialized Land Surface temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P), as the first international grass-root effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land/atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than forty groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth System Models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups. This paper overviews the history and objectives of LS4P, provides the first phase experimental protocol (LS4P-I) which focuses on the remote effect of the Tibetan Plateau, discusses the LST/SUBT initialization, and presents the preliminary results. Multi-model ensemble experiments and analyses of observational data have revealed that the hydroclimatic effect of the spring LST in the Tibetan Plateau is not limited to the Yangtze River basin but may have a significant large-scale impact on summer precipitation and its S2S prediction. LS4P models are unable to preserve the initialized LST anomalies in producing the observed anomalies largely for two main reasons: i) inadequacies in the land models arising from total soil depths which are too shallow and the use of simplified parameterizations which both tend to limit the soil memory; and ii) reanalysis data, that are used for initial conditions, have large discrepancies from the observed mean state and anomalies of LST over the Tibetan Plateau. Innovative approaches have been developed to largely overcome these problems.

We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and - importantly - about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than 1 week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating the model dynamics associated with extremes.

Numerical weather, climate, or Earth system models involve the coupling of components. At a broad level, these components can be classified as the resolved fluid dynamics, unresolved fluid dynamical aspects (i.e., those represented by physical parameterizations such as subgrid-scale mixing), and nonfluid dynamical aspects such as radiation and microphysical processes. Typically, each component is developed, at least initially, independently.Once development ismature, the components are coupled to deliver a model of the required complexity. The implementation of the coupling can have a significant impact on the model.As the error associated with each component decreases, the errors introduced by the coupling will eventually dominate. Hence, any improvement in one of the components is unlikely to improve the performance of the overall system. The challenges associated with combining the components to create a coherentmodel are here termed physics-dynamics coupling. The issue goes beyond the coupling between the parameterizations and the resolved fluid dynamics. This paper highlights recent progress and some of the current challenges. It focuses on three objectives: to illustrate the phenomenology of the coupling problemwith references to examples in the literature, to show howthe problem can be analyzed, and to create awareness of the issue across the disciplines and specializations. The topics addressed are different ways of advancing full models in time, approaches to understanding the role of the coupling and evaluation of approaches, coupling ocean and atmosphere models, thermodynamic compatibility between model components, and emerging issues such as those that arise as model resolutions increase and/ormodels use variable resolutions.

This report presents results from the DOE-sponsored workshop titled, Advancing X-Cutting Ideas for Computational Climate Science Workshop,'' known as AXICCS, held on September 12--13, 2016 in Rockville, MD. The workshop brought together experts in climate science, computational climate science, computer science, and mathematics to discuss interesting but unsolved science questions regarding climate modeling and simulation, promoted collaboration among the diverse scientists in attendance, and brainstormed about possible tools and capabilities that could be developed to help address them. Emerged from discussions at the workshop were several research opportunities that the group felt could advance climate science significantly. These include (1) process-resolving models to provide insight into important processes and features of interest and inform the development of advanced physical parameterizations, (2) a community effort to develop and provide integrated model credibility, (3) including, organizing, and managing increasingly connected model components that increase model fidelity yet complexity, and (4) treating Earth system models as one interconnected organism without numerical or data based boundaries that limit interactions. The group also identified several cross-cutting advances in mathematics, computer science, and computational science that would be needed to enable one or more of these big ideas. It is critical to address the need for organized, verified, and optimized software, which enables the models to grow and continue to provide solutions in which the community can have confidence. Effectively utilizing the newest computer hardware enables simulation efficiency and the ability to handle output from increasingly complex and detailed models. This will be accomplished through hierarchical multiscale algorithms in tandem with new strategies for data handling, analysis, and storage. These big ideas and cross-cutting technologies for enabling breakthrough climate simulation advancements also need the "glue" of outreach and learning across the scientific domains to be successful. The workshop identified several strategies to allow productive, continuous engagement across those who have a broad knowledge of the various angles of the problem. Specific ideas to foster education and tools to make material progress were discussed. Examples include follow-on cross-cutting meetings that enable unstructured discussions of the types this workshop fostered. A concerted effort to recruit undergraduate and graduate students from all relevant domains and provide them experience, training, and networking across their immediate expertise is needed. This will broaden and expand their exposure to the future needs and solutions, and provide a pipeline of scientists with a diversity of knowledge and know-how. Providing real-world experience with subject matter experts from multiple angles may also motivate the students to attack these problems and even come up with the missing solutions.

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land–atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Tropical forest dynamics play crucial roles in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. Dynamic global vegetation models are the primary tools to simulate terrestrial ecosystem dynamics and their response to climate change. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence of differing plant functional traits within tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve modeling of plant functional type (PFT) coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore: (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations; and (2) whether machine learning based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted ELM-FATES experiments for a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. We first conducted two ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments, without (Exp-1) and with (Exp-2) consideration of observed trait relationships, respectively. Considering the observed trait relationships (Exp-2) slightly improves ELM-FATES simulations of water, energy, and carbon fluxes, but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) based surrogate models trained on Exp-1, we optimize the trait-related parameters in ELM-FATES to enable PFT coexistence and reduce model errors relative to the field observations. We used parameters selected by the surrogate model to conduct another ensemble of ELM-FATES experiments (Exp-3). The probability of experiments yielding PFT coexistence greatly increases from 21 % in Exp-1 to 73 % in Exp-3. Further filtering those experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree within 15 % of the observations, Exp-3 still has 33 % of experiments left, much higher than the 1.4 % in Exp-1. Exp-3 also better reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations of water, energy and carbon fluxes, and the field inventory of above ground biomass. Our study demonstrates the benefits of using machine learning models to improve PFT coexistence modeling in ELM-FATES, with important implications for modeling the response and feedback of ecosystem dynamics to climate change. Our results also suggest that new mechanisms are required for robust simulation of coexisting plants in FATES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]