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Subduction forearcs are subject to seismic hazard from upper plate faults that are often invisible to instrumental monitoring networks. Identifying active faults in forearcs therefore requires integration of geomorphic, geologic, and paleoseismic data. We demonstrate the utility of a combined approach in a densely populated region of Vancouver Island, Canada, by combining remote sensing, historical imagery, field investigations, and shallow geophysical surveys to identify a previously unrecognized active fault, the XEOLXELEK‐Elk Lake fault, in the northern Cascadia forearc, ∼10 km north of the city of Victoria. Lidar‐derived digital terrain models and historical air photos show a ∼2.5‐m‐high scarp along the surface of a Quaternary drumlinoid ridge. Paleoseismic trenching and electrical resistivity tomography surveys across the scarp reveal a single reverse‐slip earthquake produced a fault‐propagation fold above a blind southwest‐dipping fault. Five geologically plausible chronological models of radiocarbon dated charcoal constrain the likely earthquake age to between 4.7 and 2.3 ka. Fault‐propagation fold modeling indicates ∼3.2 m of reverse slip on a blind, 50° southwest‐dipping fault can reproduce the observed deformation. Fault scaling relations suggest a M 6.1–7.6 earthquake with a 13 to 73‐km‐long surface rupture and 2.3–3.2 m of dip slip may be responsible for the deformation observed in the paleoseismic trench. An earthquake near this magnitude in Greater Victoria could result in major damage, and our results highlight the importance of augmenting instrumental monitoring networks with remote sensing and field studies to identify and characterize active faults in similarily challenging environments. Plain Language Summary: Faults occurring in the upper plate above a subduction zone are often located near densely populated coastal areas, but their hazard is often underappreciated due to their low deformation rates. In the northern Cascadia forearc on the west coast of North America, high‐resolution topography and geologic mapping show a ∼2.3‐m‐high scarp across a ∼14,000 year‐old land surface 10 km north of downtown Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. This newly identified fault, the XEOLXELEK‐Elk Lake fault (XELF), crosses Saanich Peninsula within Greater Victoria and poses a hazard to the region's ∼400,000 inhabitants. Therefore, determining whether it produced recent large earthquakes is important for updating regional earthquake hazard models and increasing earthquake preparedness. To study the earthquake history of the fault, we used shallow geophysical techniques and excavated a trench across the scarp to examine the sedimentary record of deformation. These combined methodologies determined a single large earthquake, of magnitude 6.1–7.6, likely occurred on the XELF between ∼4,700 and 2,300 years ago. A similar future earthquake on the XELF Lake fault could cause major damage to the Greater Victoria area. Thus, our results can improve future earthquake hazard assessments. Key Points: We document a single Holocene earthquake on a previously unidentified fault in the northern Cascadia forearc near Victoria, CanadaTrenching, shallow geophysics, and fault‐fold modeling show 2.3–3.2 m of dip slip during an M 6.1–7.6 earthquake between 4.7 and 2.3 kaA combination of methodologies can enhance the study of active faults in forearcs, urbanized areas, and previously glaciated terrain [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal marshes record a 6500 yr history of coseismic displacements in great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. We compiled estimates of coseismic displacement for past megathrust events based on correlations with megathrust-triggered turbidites, and estimated megathrust slip based on comparisons of marsh displacements with dislocation model predictions. Age-correlated marsh data are compatible with event rupture extents defined by the published turbidite record, and a 6500 yr mean recurrence interval that increases northward from ~230 to ~480 yr. Within the constraints of the marsh data, the width of the coseismic rupture zone generally agrees with the downdip width of the interseismic locked zone inferred from geodetic and thermal data. In southern most Cascadia, where the model does not include the complex deformation near the Mendocino triple junction, the coastal data may be better fit by a model with an ~25% narrower rupture than that inferred from regional geophysical data. At each coastal marsh site, coseismic displacements are roughly similar from event to event, independent of the time since the previous event. Slip in the A.D. 1700 earthquake was consistent with the preceding interval of strain accumulation (~200 yr) only at the northern and southern ends of the margin, but it was apparently much higher in southern Washington and northern Oregon, possibly indicating postseismic contamination and/or catch-up coseismic slip to make up for a deficit in the preceding event. Overall agreement between the dislocation models and the marsh data for most of the margin implies that such models can be usefully applied to rupture and ground shaking predictions. doi: 10.1130/B30108.1

Seismic hazard assessments for a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake are largely based on the rupture area predictions of dislocation models constrained by geodetic and geothermal data; this paper tests the consistency of the models for the 1700 great Cascadia earthquake with compiled coastal coseismic subsidence as estimated from paleoelevation studies. Coastal estimates have large uncertainties but show a consistent pattern. Greatest coseismic subsidence (~1-2 m) occurred in northern Oregon/ southern Washington; subsidence elsewhere was ~0-1 m. Elastic dislocation models constrained by interseismic geodetic and thermal data are used to predict the coseismic subsidence for two likely strain accumulation periods of (i) 800 and (ii) 550 yr of plate convergence and for uniform megathrust slip of 10, 20, 30, and 50 m. The former two models provide a better and equally good fit; predicted subsidence is in broad agreement with marsh estimates. Discrepancies exist, however, at the ends of the subduction zone. In the south, misfit may be due to breakup of the Gorda plate. The discrepancy in the north may be explained if the 1700 event released only part of the accumulated strain there, consistent with long-term net uplift in excess of eustatic sea-level rise. The coseismic slip magnitude, estimated by comparing uniform slip model predictions with marsh coseismic subsidence estimates, is consistent with the M 9 earthquake indicated by Japanese tsunami records. The coseismic slip was greatest in northern Oregon/southern Washington, declining to the north and south. Keywords: Cascadia subduction zone, earthquakes, modeling, Holocene, estuaries, paleoseismology.

We describe near-field coseismic and tsunami evidence collected following the 28 October 2012 Mw 7.8 thrust earthquake that occurred offshore western Haida Gwaii, British Columbia, and discuss factors that influence its extent and preservation potential. Observations indicate minor geomorphic and sedimentological impacts on the rugged and unpopulated west coast of the islands, despite widespread coastal coseismic subsidence (~0.5 m), triggered landslides, and tsunami waves exceeding 3 m in runup (maximum 13 m) along ~230 km of coastline. Evidence left by the tsunami was minimal, likely because it occurred during a low tide that restricted its onshore reach, its flow depth, and its capacity to entrain and transport significant amounts of clastic sediment, sources of which are minimal or absent on the dominantly steep, rocky coastline. It is unlikely that subaerial evidence of coseismic subsidence and tsunami inundation will be recognizably recorded in the coastal stratigraphy of western Haida Gwaii, due to the relatively small magnitude of subsidence, a lack of suitable coastal environments such as tidal marshes to record paleoelevation differences, sedimentation rates that are too low to bury a paleoseismic or paleotsunami record, and long-term relative sea level fall leading to erosion and bioturbation. A higher preservation potential is likely for tsunami deposits in coastal lakes, ponds, and bogs, as well as coseismic slope failure deposits offshore, in lakes and in sheltered tjords. Our findings imply that large tsunamigenic earthquakes are likely undersampled in the paleoseismic record of Haida Gwaii and of other plate margins with similar characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]