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The international community has committed to achieve 169 Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets by 2030 and to enhance climate adaptation under the Paris Agreement. Despite the potential for synergies, aligning SDG and climate adaptation efforts is inhibited by an inadequate understanding of the complex relationship between SDG targets and adaptation to impacts of climate change. Here we propose a framework to conceptualise how ecosystems and socio-economic sectors mediate this relationship, which provides a more nuanced understanding of the impacts of climate change on all 169 SDG targets. Global application of the framework reveals that adaptation of wetlands, rivers, cropland, construction, water, electricity, and housing in the most vulnerable countries is required to safeguard achievement of 68% of SDG targets from near-term climate risk by 2030. We discuss how our framework can help align National Adaptation Plans with SDG targets, thus ensuring that adaptation advances, rather than detracts from, sustainable development.

Waste management is particularly challenging for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) due to their high per-capita infrastructure costs, remoteness, narrow resource bases and high dependence on tourism. The lack of integrated planning frameworks considering these SIDS-characteristics has stalled progress on sustainable waste management. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an integrated methodology for long-term waste management planning to deliver on the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in SIDS. This explicitly combines multi-level participatory SDG visioning and back-casting with waste infrastructure modelling. This methodological development is piloted using a national-scale demonstration on Curacao. Three island-specific waste management portfolios (Inaction, Circular Economy, Technology-led), developed through stakeholder back-casting, are modelled for SDG delivery using a national accounting model under different socio-economic futures. The results highlight the importance of waste prevention and material re-use strategies within islands that engage local populations. Evidence-based identification and evaluation of waste management strategies, grounded in participatory processes, can itself contribute to SDG delivery.

The international community has committed to achieve 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and to enhance climate action under the Paris Agreement. Yet achievement of the SDGs is already threatened by climate-change impacts. Here we show that further adaptation this decade is urgently required to safeguard 68% of SDG targets against acute and chronic threats from climate change. We analyse how the relationship between SDG targets and climate-change impacts is mediated by ecosystems and socio-economic sectors, which provides a framework for targeting adaptation. Adaptation of wetlands, rivers, cropland, construction, water, electricity and housing in the most vulnerable countries should be a global priority to safeguard sustainable development by 2030. We have applied our systems framework at the national scale in Saint Lucia and Ghana, which is helping to align National Adaptation Plans with the SDGs, thus ensuring that adaptation is contributing to, rather than detracting from, sustainable development.

Through the provision of a range of essential services, infrastructure systems profoundly influence development. At a time of increasing global investment in infrastructure, there is a need to support practitioners in making informed choices in order to achieve progress toward sustainable development objectives. Using the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (the SDGs) as a framework to structure infrastructure decision-making and trade-offs, this analysis develops a performance indicator system that assesses the potential development implications of a portfolio of infrastructure investments and policies. We develop metrics to assess the performance of infrastructure-linked targets. We then embed these metrics in a systems model that allows for the quantification of future infrastructure needs and the assessment of portfolios of infrastructure investments and policies that contribute to meeting these needs. These methods are applied to the small-island country of Curacao, demonstrating the potential for meeting the SDGs through adoption of strategies of cross-sectoral infrastructure investments and policies in the energy, water, wastewater and solid waste sectors. In the face of growing demands for infrastructure services, we find that inaction with regard to infrastructure supply and demand will lead to a 28% decrease in average SDG achievement across these targets by 2030. We assemble a portfolio of interventions that provide infrastructure services across these four sectors that enable achievement of 19 SDG targets directly linked to infrastructure. These interventions imply scaling up of infrastructure where there are gaps in service provision, ranging from an overall 10% increase in the water sector to a 368% increase in waste sector infrastructure from current capacities by 2030. Achieving the SDGs does not necessarily imply more infrastructure: in the energy sector the sustainable policy implies demand reductions of 32% from current levels. Nearly 50% of the assessed targets require intervention in more than one sector, emphasising the interdependent nature of the infrastructure system. The analysis addresses future uncertainties around the key drivers of residential population and tourism growth on the island by modelling infrastructure needs for alternate scenario projections. Averaged across the four sectors, these needs range from −14% (low) to +5% (high) in relation to the moderate projection. The analysis provides the first step towards a practical means of utilising infrastructure to deliver the SDGs, using quantitative indicators to underpin effective decision-making.

Anaerobic digestion of food waste within urban areas can generate decentralised renewable energy and support community enterprise activities, thereby contributing to closing the waste-energy-food loop. However, widespread uptake of small-scale, urban anaerobic digestion networks is limited by economic costs and the safe disposal of surplus digestate. This paper uses an interdisciplinary approach to assess the feasibility of anaerobic digestate management through the installation of hydroponics or algae cultivation systems, based on a case study of a micro anaerobic digestion system in London, England. Results show that installing a dewatering sifter together with a hydroponics system is a technically and economically feasible option for digestate enhancement in the urban environment. Its installation is, however, not currently justified for the system under consideration due to cost, regulatory, spatial, and contextual constraints identified using actor-network analysis. Nevertheless, if regulatory and wider contextual issues are accommodated, and more than 30 L of digestate are produced daily, a dewatering and vertical hydroponic system could result in a profit of approximately £100,000 over 10 years. While the microalgal system was also able to upgrade digestate, at present productivity is too low and the capital cost of photobioreactor technology is prohibitively expensive. This underlines the need for technical improvements and low-cost enhancement options to achieve justifiable paybacks until regulatory reforms and the wider economic situation are more favourable to anaerobic digestion treatment within cities.

Acute climate-change hazards, such as floods or storm surges, can affect a nation’s built and natural environment assets that are critical for development and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To reduce the impacts of such acute climate-change hazards and safeguard development, national decision-makers require evidence on where and how hazards affect SDG achievement to better inform adaptation. Here, we develop a systems methodology that spatially models the impacts of climate-change hazards across a nation’s entire built and natural environment assets and its interdependent influences on the SDG targets to inform national adaptation. We apply our methodology in Saint Lucia through a participatory approach with decision-makers across 18 government ministries, academia, and the private sector. Results reveal that acute climate-change hazards can affect half of Saint Lucia’s assets across 22 sectors, which can influence 89% of all SDG targets. Application of our methodology provided evidence on where and how to prioritise adaptation, thereby helping to add spatial granularity to 52 measures under Saint Lucia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as well as specificity on how limited capacity for cross-sectoral coordination can be directed to safeguard SDG targets. Adaptation does not necessarily imply investing in physical asset protection: results show the need to protect critical natural environments which provide important adaptation services to the built environment. As more nations develop and revise their NAPs and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, strategic planning across sectors – as demonstrated in Saint Lucia – will be critical to facilitate adaptation that safeguards SDG achievement.

This chapter aims to identify influential actors in coastal flood risk management (FRM) initiatives and to understand the power relations between the most influential actors. It proposes strategies to manage these power relations for more effective FRM. The chapter discusses a novel actor-mapping methodology has been developed and applied to coastal FRM, focusing on the island of Curacao. Power relations between stakeholders play a large role in such decision-making; including who or what is considered at risk or which measures for FRM are ultimately prioritised. The Ministry of Traffic, Transport and Urban Planning department is considered an influential human opponent of FRM due to its mandate on urban planning. In analysing stakeholder influence in Curacao’s FRM regime, results do not align with traditional power sources in the Caribbean, especially those that are explicitly represented as being influential in published policy documents.

Targets agreed to in Paris in 2015 aim to limit global warming to 'well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels'. Despite the far-reaching consequences of this multi-lateral climate change mitigation strategy, the implications for global river flows remain unclear. Here we estimate the impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C mitigation scenarios on peak flows by using daily river flow data from a multi-model ensemble which follows the HAPPI Protocol (that is specifically designed to simulate these temperature targets). We find agreement between models with regard to changing risk of river flow extremes. Moreover, we find that the response at 2.0 °C is not a uniform extension of the response at 1.5°, suggesting a non-linear global response of peak flows to the two mitigation levels. Yet committing to the 2.0 °C warming target, rather than 1.5 °C, is projected to lead to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme flows in several large catchments. In the most affected areas, predominantly in South Asia, while region-specific features such as aerosol loads may determine precipitation patterns, we estimate that under our 1.5 °C scenario the historical 1-in-100 year flow occurs with a frequency of 1-in-25 years. At 2.0 °C, similar increases are observed in several global regions. These shifts are also accompanied by changes in the duration of rainy seasons which influence the occurrence of high flows.