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A robust understanding of the mechanisms driving demographic change in wild animal populations is fundamental to the delivery of effective conservation interventions. Demographic change can be driven by variation in adult survival, recruitment of juveniles into the breeding population or breeding productivity – the number of fledglings produced per breeding pair. Across Europe, low breeding productivity in wader populations has been a significant driver of population decline, increasing the importance of gathering accurate data on breeding productivity. Monitoring wader breeding productivity is challenging because finding nests can be time‐consuming and requires experienced fieldworkers; wader chicks are nidifugous and difficult to count due to their cryptic behaviour; and waders often have high re‐laying rates following nest failure, meaning that hatching or fledging can be highly asynchronous. This paper reviews approaches to estimating breeding productivity where fieldworkers either record the agitation or alarm‐calling behaviour of adults with dependent young, make direct observations of broods on survey visits, or both. Using a systematic literature search (restricted to Europe where most of these studies have taken place) we identified 38 peer‐reviewed papers which used this approach. The productivity metrics produced can be divided into the following categories: (i) 'Hatching Success' (HS), (ii) 'Fledging Success' (FS) and (iii) 'Young Fledged Per Pair' (YFP), from the coarsest to the most precise. The first two metrics are most often used when direct observations of broods are not possible due to the behaviour of broods or vegetation structure; YFP is preferred if brood counts are possible. Design of an appropriate metric depends on (i) whether accurate brood counts are possible; (ii) whether adults exhibit diagnostic agitation behaviour when young are present; (iii) whether individual breeding territories are separable; (iv) whether re‐nesting rates are assumed to be high; and (v) the availability of experienced surveyors (particularly where behavioural observations are required). Globally there are many wader species for which the methods described here could provide valuable information and we hope this review encourages further development or adoption of these methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland habitats are changing under multiple anthropogenic pressures. Nutrient leakage and pollution modify physico‐chemical state of wetlands and affect the ecosystem through bottom‐up processes, while alien predators affect the ecosystems in a top‐down manner. Boreal wetlands are important breeding areas for several waterbird species, the abundances of which potentially reflect both bottom‐up and top‐down ecosystem processes. Here, we use long‐term national monitoring data gathered from c. 130 waterbird breeding sites in Finland from the 1980s to the 2020s. We hypothesised that the physico‐chemical state of the waters and increasing alien predator abundance both play a role in steering the waterbird population trends. We set out to test this hypothesis by relating population changes of 17 waterbird species to changes in water chemistry and to regional alien predator indices while allowing species‐specific effects to vary with foraging niche (dabblers, invertivore divers, piscivorous divers, herbivores), nesting site, female mass and habitat (oligotrophic, eutrophic). We found niche and nesting site‐specific, habitat‐dependent changes in waterbird numbers. While the associations with higher phosphorus levels and browning water were in overall positive at the oligotrophic lakes, the numbers of invertivore and piscivore diving ducks were most strongly negatively associated with higher phosphorus levels and browning water at the eutrophic lakes. Furthermore, increased pH levels benefitted piscivores. Invertivore diving duck species nesting on the wetlands had declined most on sites with high alien predator indices. Large herbivorous species and species preferring oligotrophic lakes seem to be successful. We conclude that the large‐scale breeding waterbird decline in Finland is closely connected to both bottom‐up and top‐down processes, where negative associations are emphasised especially at eutrophic lakes. Niche‐, nest site‐ and habitat‐specific management actions are required to conserve declining waterbird populations. Managing wetlands on catchments level together with alien predator control may provide important approaches to future wetland management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]