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Background: Whether newer risk markers for coronary heart disease (CHD) improve CHD risk prediction remains unclear. Objective: To assess whether newer risk markers for CHD risk prediction and stratification improve Framingham risk score (FRS) predictions. Design: Prospective population-based study. Setting: The Rotterdam Study, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Participants: 5933 asymptomatic, community-dwelling participants (mean age, 69.1 years [SD, 8.5]). Measurements: Traditional CHD risk factors used in the FRS (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, treatment of hypertension, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, smoking, and diabetes) and newer CHD risk factors (N-terminal fragment of prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide levels, von Willebrand factor antigen levels, fibrinogen levels, chronic kidney disease, leukocyte count, C-reactive protein levels, homocysteine levels, uric acid levels, coronary artery calcium [CAC] scores, carotid intima-media thickness, peripheral arterial disease, and pulse wave velocity). Results: Adding CAC scores to the FRS improved the accuracy of risk predictions (c-statistic increase, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06]; net reclassification index, 19.3% overall [39.3% in those at intermediate risk, by FRS]). Levels of N-terminal fragment of prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide also improved risk predictions but to a lesser extent (c-statistic increase, 0.02 [CI, 0.01 to 0.04]; net reclassification index, 7.6% overall [33.0% in those at intermediate risk, by FRS]). Improvements in predictions with other newer markers were marginal. Limitation: The findings may not be generalizable to younger or nonwhite populations. Conclusion: Among 12 CHD risk markers, improvements in FRS predictions were most statistically and clinically significant with the addition of CAC scores. Further investigation is needed to assess whether risk refinements using CAC scores lead to a meaningful change in clinical outcome. Whether to use CAC score screening as a more routine test for risk prediction requires full consideration of the financial and clinical costs of performing versus not performing the test for both persons and health systems. Primary Funding Source: Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To provide population-based distributions of thoracic aortic diameters in men and women aged 55 years or older and to identify determinants of thoracic aortic diameters., Methods: From 2003 to 2006, 2505 participants (1208 men, mean age 69.1±6.8 years) from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study underwent non-enhanced cardiac CT. The diameter of the ascending (AA) and descending aorta (DA) was measured at the level of the pulmonary bifurcation., Results: The mean diameter of the ascending and descending aorta was substantially larger in men (38±4 mm and 30±2 mm) than in women (35±3 mm and 27±2 mm). An ascending aortic diameter of larger than 40 mm was found in 228 (18.9%) men and 76 (5.9%) women and a descending aortic diameter larger than 40 mm was found in two men and no women. Male sex was found to be independently associated with larger DA diameter (standardised β 0.24, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.30), while a statistically non-significant trend was found for the AA diameter (standardised β 0.06, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.12). Age, height, weight and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were also associated with larger AA and/or DA diameters. Diabetes was associated with smaller AA and DA diameters. We found no evidence for effect modification by sex., Conclusions: In persons aged 55 years or older, an ascending aortic diameter of 40 mm or larger was found in 18.9% of men and 5.9% of women. Given the importance of sex, sex-specific distribution values may prove useful in clinical practice, even when correcting for body surface area or height., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background The purpose of this study was to determine how American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2013 and European Society of Cardiology 2016 guidelines for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) compare in reflecting the totality of accrued randomised clinical trial evidence for statin treatment at population level. Methods From 1997-2008, 7279 participants aged 45-75 years, free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, from the population-based Rotterdam Study were included. For each participant, we compared eligibility for each one of 11 randomised clinical trials on statin use in primary prevention of CVD, with recommendations on lipid-lowering therapy from the ACC/AHA and European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease incidence and cardiovascular disease mortality rates were calculated. Results The proportion of participants eligible for each trial ranged from 0.4% for ALLHAT-LLT to 30.8% for MEGA. The likelihood of being recommended for lipid-lowering treatment was lowest for those eligible for low-to-intermediate risk RCTs (HOPE-3, MEGA, and JUPITER), and highest for high-risk individuals with diabetes (MRC/BHF HPS, CARDS, and ASPEN) or elderly PROSPER. Eligibility for an increasing number of randomised clinical trials correlated with a greater likelihood of being recommended lipid-lowering treatment by either guideline ( p < 0.001 for both guidelines). Conclusion Compared to RCTs done in high risk populations, randomised clinical trials targeting low-to-intermediate risk populations are less well-reflected in the ACC/AHA, and even less so in the ESC guideline recommendations. Importantly, the low-to-intermediate risk population targeted by HOPE-3, the most recent randomised clinical trial in this field, is not well-captured by the current European prevention guidelines and should be specifically considered in future iterations of the guidelines.

The implantation of cardiac pacemakers has become a well-established therapy for conduction disorders and sinus node dysfunction. In many countries pacemaker registries have been initiated in order to collect information on patient characteristics, trends in numbers and the types of pacemakers used, to identify problematic devices, and for safety monitoring. For this utilisation study the Central Pacemaker Patients Registration (CPPR) from the Netherlands Pacemaker Registry Foundation (CPPR-SPRN) containing data collected for more than 20 years was used. During this period nearly 97,000 first pacemakers were implanted. Analyses show an increase in the rate of implanted devices. The change in pacemaker type from VVI to DDD, followed by biventricular stimulation, is reflected by the number of simultaneously implanted leads, which is partly a consequence of cardiac resynchronisation therapy. Our data demonstrate that indications for implantation and type of pacemaker are comparable with other European countries., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestBoth L.M. de Vries and B.H.C. Stricker also work for the Dutch Health Care Inspectorate, a governmental supervisory organisation for healthcare. The work described in this paper was explicitly not performed on behalf of the inspectorate. M.J.G. Leening reports receiving grants and fees from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), Netherlands Society of Epidemiology (VvE), American Heart Association (AHA), Prins Bernhard Cultuurfonds, Erasmus University Trustfonds, and Stichting De Drie Lichten, all unrelated to the content of this paper.

Importance: The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines both recommend lipid-lowering treatment for primary prevention based on global risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) for statin use have included participants with specific risk-factor profiles., Objective: To evaluate the overlap between the ACC/AHA and ESC guideline recommendations and available evidence from RCTs for statin use in primary prevention of CVD., Design, Setting, and Participants: We calculated the 10-year risk for hard atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) following the ACC/AHA guideline, 10-year risk of CVD mortality following the ESC guideline, and we determined eligibility for each of 10 major RCTs for primary prevention of CVD. Conducted from July 2014 to August 2015, this study included 7279 individuals free of CVD, aged 45 to 75 years, examined between 1997 and 2008 for the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort., Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportions of individuals qualifying for lipid-lowering treatment per guidelines, proportions of individuals eligible for any of the 10 RCTs, overlap between these groups, and corresponding ASCVD incidence rates., Results: Of the 7279 individuals included in the study, 58.2% were women (n = 4238) and had a mean (SD) age of 61.1 (6.9) years. The ACC/AHA guidelines would recommend statin initiation in 4284 participants (58.9%), while the ESC guidelines would in 2399 participants (33.0%) (overlapping by 95.8% with ACC/AHA). A total of 3857 participants (53.0%) met eligibility criteria for at least 1 RCT. Recommendations from both guidelines and trial evidence overlapped for 1546 participants (21.2%), who were at high risk for ASCVD (21.5 per 1000 person-years). A further 1703 participants (23.4%) would be recommended for statins by the guidelines in the absence of direct trial evidence, while 1176 (16.2%) would have been eligible for at least 1 trial without being recommended statin treatment by any guideline. Finally, 1719 participants (23.6%) would not be recommended a statin, nor would qualify for any of the trials. These individuals had low incidence of ASCVD (3.3 per 1000 person-years)., Conclusions and Relevance: Based on this European population study, ACC/AHA and ESC prevention guidelines often did not align at the individual level. However, for one-fifth of the general population, guidelines on both sides of the Atlantic recommend statin initiation, with trial data supporting the efficacy. There should be no controversy about providing optimal preventive medication to these individuals.

Background: The association between myocardial infarction (MI) and depression is well described. Yet, the underlying mechanisms are unclear and the contribution of psychological factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine the risk of recognized (RMI) and unrecognized (UMI) myocardial infections on depression, as both have a similar impact on cardiovascular health but differ in psychological epiphenomena., Method: Participants of the Rotterdam Study, 1823 men aged ⩾55 years, were followed for the occurrence of depression. RMI and UMI were ascertained using electrocardiography and medical history at baseline. We determined the strength of the association of RMI and UMI with mortality, and we studied the relationship of RMI and UMI with depressive symptoms and the occurrence of major depression., Results: The risk of mortality was similar in men with RMI [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45-2.03] and UMI (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.27-1.97). Men with RMI had on average [unstandardized regression coefficient (B) 1.14, 95% CI 0.07-2.21] higher scores for depressive symptoms. By contrast, we found no clear association between UMI and depressive symptoms (B 0.55, 95% CI -0.51 to 1.62) in men. Analysis including occurrence of major depression as the outcome were consistent with the pattern of association., Conclusion: The discrepant association of RMI and UMI with mortality compared to depression suggests that the psychological burden of having experienced an MI contributes to the long-term risk of depression.

Background: We evaluated the association of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque, carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and their role in improving AF risk prediction beyond the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE)-AF risk score., Methods and Results: We analyzed data from 3 population-based cohort studies: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (n=13 907); Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; n=6640), and the Rotterdam Study (RS; n=5220). We evaluated the association of arterial indices with incident AF and computed the C-statistic, category-based net reclassification improvement (NRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of incorporating arterial indices into the CHARGE-AF risk score (age, race, height weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, smoking, diabetes, previous myocardial infarction, and previous heart failure). Higher cIMT (meta-analyzed hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1-SD increment, 1.12 [1.08-1.16]) and presence of carotid plaque (1.30 [1.19-1.42]) were associated with higher AF incidence after adjustment for CHARGE-AF risk-score variables. Lower DC and higher PWV were associated with higher AF incidence only after adjustment for the CHARGE-AF risk-score variables excepting height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Addition of cIMT or carotid plaque marginally improved CHARGE-AF score prediction as assessed by the relative IDI (estimates, 0.025-0.051), but not when assessed with the C-statistic and NRI., Conclusions: Higher cIMT, presence of carotid plaque, and greater arterial stiffness are associated with higher AF incidence, indicating that atherosclerosis and arterial stiffness play a role in AF etiopathogenesis. However, arterial indices only modestly improve AF risk prediction., (© 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)

Purpose: Antidepressants, specifically selective serotonin reuptake-inhibiting antidepressants (SSRIs), decrease platelet activation and aggregation in in vitro experiments and could therefore decrease the risk of myocardial infarction (MI). However, prior studies addressing this hypothesis showed contradictory results. Our purpose was to investigate the association between the use of any antidepressant drug and incident MI among middle-aged and older adults., Methods: We embedded a case-control study in the prospective Rotterdam Study (1991-2011). Controls were matched to MI cases based on sex and age at the same calendar date, and confounding factors were taken into account as time-varying covariates. The relative risk of MI during current and past use of an antidepressant was analyzed with conditional logistic regression with never use of antidepressant drugs as the reference category., Results: A total of 744 out of a cohort of 9499 study participants developed MI during follow-up. After statistical adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and depression, current use of any antidepressant was associated with a lower risk of MI (odds ratio (OR), 0.71; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.51-0.98) compared with never use of any antidepressant. SSRI use showed the lowest relative risk (OR, 0.65; 95 % CI, 0.41-1.02), albeit marginally not statistically significant. Past use of any of the antidepressant classes was not associated with a lower risk of MI., Conclusions: Current use of antidepressants was associated with a lower risk of MI. Of the different classes, the use of SSRIs showed the lowest risk of MI, and therefore confirming the research hypothesis.

Background: Low serum magnesium has been implicated in cardiovascular mortality, but results are conflicting and the pathway is unclear. We studied the association of serum magnesium with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and sudden cardiac death (SCD) within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, with adjudicated end points and long-term follow-up., Methods and Results: Nine-thousand eight-hundred and twenty participants (mean age 65.1 years, 56.8% female) were included with a median follow-up of 8.7 years. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and found that a 0.1 mmol/L increase in serum magnesium level was associated with a lower risk for CHD mortality (hazard ratio: 0.82, 95% CI 0.70-0.96). Furthermore, we divided serum magnesium in quartiles, with the second and third quartile combined as reference group (0.81-0.88 mmol/L). Low serum magnesium (≤0.80 mmol/L) was associated with an increased risk of CHD mortality (N=431, hazard ratio: 1.36, 95% CI 1.09-1.69) and SCD (N=217, hazard ratio: 1.54, 95% CI 1.12-2.11). Low serum magnesium was associated with accelerated subclinical atherosclerosis (expressed as increased carotid intima-media thickness: +0.013 mm, 95% CI 0.005-0.020) and increased QT-interval, mainly through an effect on heart rate (RR-interval: -7.1 ms, 95% CI -13.5 to -0.8). Additional adjustments for carotid intima-media thickness and heart rate did not change the associations with CHD mortality and SCD., Conclusions: Low serum magnesium is associated with an increased risk of CHD mortality and SCD. Although low magnesium was associated with both carotid intima-media thickness and heart rate, this did not explain the relationship between serum magnesium and CHD mortality or SCD. Future studies should focus on why magnesium associates with CHD mortality and SCD and whether intervention reduces these risks., (© 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)

Background: Data are scarce for the lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism, including prediabetes, as are data for the risk of eventual progression from prediabetes to diabetes and for initiation of insulin treatment in previously untreated patients with diabetes. We aimed to calculate the lifetime risk of the full range of glucose impairments, from normoglycaemia to prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, and eventual insulin use., Methods: In this prospective population-based cohort analysis, we used data from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We identified diagnostic events by use of general practitioners' records, hospital discharge letters, pharmacy dispensing data, and serum fasting glucose measurements taken at the study centre (Rotterdam, Netherlands) visits. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes, and diabetes were defined on the basis of WHO criteria for fasting glucose (normoglycaemia: ≤6·0 mmol/L; prediabetes: >6·0 mmol/L and <7·0 mmol/L; and diabetes ≥7·0 mmol/L or use of glucose-lowering drug). We calculated lifetime risk using a modified version of survival analysis adjusted for the competing risk of death. We also estimated the lifetime risk of progression from prediabetes to overt diabetes and from diabetes free of insulin treatment to insulin use. Additionally, we calculated years lived with healthy glucose metabolism., Findings: We used data from 10 050 participants from the Rotterdam Study. During a follow-up of up to 14·7 years (between April 1, 1997, and Jan 1, 2012), 1148 participants developed prediabetes, 828 developed diabetes, and 237 started insulin treatment. At age 45 years, the remaining lifetime risk was 48·7% (95% CI 46·2-51·3) for prediabetes, 31·3% (29·3-33·3) for diabetes, and 9·1% (7·8-10·3) for insulin use. In individuals aged 45 years, the lifetime risk to progress from prediabetes to diabetes was 74·0% (95% CI 67·6-80·5), and 49·1% (38·2-60·0) of the individuals with overt diabetes at this age started insulin treatment. The lifetime risks attenuated with advancing age, but increased with increasing BMI and waist circumference. On average, individuals with severe obesity lived 10 fewer years without glucose impairment compared with normal-weight individuals., Interpretation: Impaired glucose metabolism is a substantial burden on population health, and our findings emphasise the need for more effective prevention strategies, which should be implemented as soon in a person's life as possible. The substantial lifetime risk of prediabetes and diabetes in lean individuals also supports risk factor control in non-obese individuals., Funding: Erasmus MC and Erasmus University Rotterdam; Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research; Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development; Research Institute for Diseases in the Elderly; Netherlands Genomics Initiative; Netherlands Ministry of Education, Culture and Science; Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports; European Commission; and Municipality of Rotterdam., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Subclinical cardiac dysfunction has been associated with increased mortality, and heart failure increases the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Less well known is whether subclinical cardiac dysfunction is also a risk factor for SCD. Our objective was to assess the association between echocardiographic parameters and SCD in a community-dwelling population free of heart failure., Methods and Results: We computed hazard ratios (HRs) for left atrium diameter, left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic dimension, LV end-systolic dimension, LV mass, qualitative LV systolic function, LV fractional shortening, and diastolic function. During a median follow-up of 6.3 years in 4,686 participants, 68 participants died because of SCD. Significant associations with SCD were observed for qualitative LV systolic function and LV fractional shortening. For moderate/poor qualitative LV systolic function, the HR for SCD was 2.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-5.87). Each standard deviation decrease in LV fractional shortening was associated with an HR of 1.36 (95% CI 1.09-1.70)., Conclusions: Subclinical abnormalities in LV systolic function were associated with SCD risk in this general population. Although prediction of SCD remains difficult and traditional cardiovascular risk factors are of greatest importance, this knowledge might guide future directions to prevent SCD in persons with subclinical cardiac dysfunction., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Atherosclerosis is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Although atherosclerosis is a systemic disease, its burden varies considerably across vessel beds, which may translate into differences in mortality risk., Methods and Results: From 2003 to 2006, a sample of 2408 elderly participants (mean age, 69.6±6.7 years; 52.4% female) from the population-based Rotterdam Study underwent computed tomography to quantify atherosclerotic calcification in the coronary arteries, aortic arch, extracranial, and intracranial internal carotid arteries. Mortality follow-up was complete until January 1, 2012. We investigated associations of calcification in each vessel bed with mortality using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and cardiovascular risk factors. Next, all vessel beds were included into 1 model to investigate independency of associations. Finally, we investigated the predictive value of calcification beyond the predictors included in the Pooled Cohort equations. During 15 775 person-years of follow-up, 283 participants died. Larger calcification volumes in all vessels were related to higher risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality, independent of cardiovascular risk factors. Most prominent associations were found for aortic arch calcification and cardiovascular mortality (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio per 1-SD increase 2.72 [95% confidence interval, 1.85-4.02]), independent of calcification elsewhere (hazard ratio, 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.72]). Calcification in any vessel improved prediction for all 3 outcomes., Conclusions: Atherosclerotic load in major vessel beds is associated with an increased risk of death. In particular, aortic arch calcification volume yields unique information with regard to mortality in addition to atherosclerosis in other vessel beds., (© 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Objectives: The increased popularity of mind-body practices highlights the need to explore their potential effects. We determined the cross-sectional association between mind-body practices and cardiometabolic risk factors., Methods: We used data from 2579 participants free of cardiovascular disease from the Rotterdam Study (2009-2013). A structured home-based interview was used to evaluate engagement in mind-body practices including meditation, yoga, self-prayer, breathing exercises, or other forms of mind-body practice. We regressed engagement in mind-body practices on cardiometabolic risk factors (body mass index, blood pressure, and fasting blood levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose) and presence of metabolic syndrome. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, educational level, smoking, alcohol consumption, (in)activities in daily living, grief, and depressive symptoms., Results: Fifteen percent of the participants engaged in a form of mind-body practice. Those who did mind-body practices had significantly lower body mass index (β = -0.84 kg/m, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.30 to -0.38, p < .001), log-transformed triglyceride levels (β = -0.02, 95% CI = -0.04 to -0.001, p = .037), and log-transformed fasting glucose levels (β = -0.01, 95% CI = -0.02 to -0.004, p = .004). Metabolic syndrome was less common among individuals who engaged in mind-body practices (odds ratio = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.54-0.95, p = .019)., Conclusions: Individuals who do mind-body practices have a favorable cardiometabolic risk profile compared with those who do not. However, the cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for causal inference and prospective, and intervention studies are needed to elucidate the association between mind-body practices and cardiometabolic processes.

Importance: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing., Objective: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity., Design, Setting, and Participants: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates., Exposures: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)., Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy., Results: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy., Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

New markers may improve prediction of diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. We aimed to review options for graphical display and summary measures to assess the predictive value of markers over standard, readily available predictors. We illustrated various approaches using previously published data on 3264 participants from the Framingham Heart Study, where 183 developed coronary heart disease (10-year risk 5.6%). We considered performance measures for the incremental value of adding HDL cholesterol to a prediction model. An initial assessment may consider statistical significance (HR = 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.80; likelihood ratio p < 0.001), and distributions of predicted risks (densities or box plots) with various summary measures. A range of decision thresholds is considered in predictiveness and receiver operating characteristic curves, where the area under the curve (AUC) increased from 0.762 to 0.774 by adding HDL. We can furthermore focus on reclassification of participants with and without an event in a reclassification graph, with the continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) as a summary measure. When we focus on one particular decision threshold, the changes in sensitivity and specificity are central. We propose a net reclassification risk graph, which allows us to focus on the number of reclassified persons and their event rates. Summary measures include the binary AUC, the two-category NRI, and decision analytic variants such as the net benefit (NB). Various graphs and summary measures can be used to assess the incremental predictive value of a marker. Important insights for impact on decision making are provided by a simple graph for the net reclassification risk., (© 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.)

Background: Pulmonary hypertension is characterized by increased pulmonary artery pressure and carries an increased mortality. Population-based studies into pulmonary hypertension are scarce and little is known about its prevalence in the general population. We aimed to describe the distribution of echocardiographically-assessed pulmonary artery systolic pressure (ePASP) in the general population, to estimate the prevalence of pulmonary hypertension, and to identify associated factors., Methods: Participants (n = 3381, mean age 76.4 years, 59% women) from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort, underwent echocardiography. Echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension was defined as ePASP>40 mmHg., Results: Mean ePASP was 26.3 mmHg (SD 7.0). Prevalence of echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension was 2.6% (95%CI: 2.0; 3.2). Prevalence was higher in older participants compared to younger ones (8.3% in those over 85 years versus 0.8% in those between 65 and 70), and in those with underlying disorders versus those without (5.9% in subjects with COPD versus 2.3%; 9.2% in those with left ventricular systolic dysfunction versus 2.3%; 23.1% in stages 3 or 4 left ventricular diastolic dysfunction versus 1.9% in normal or stage 1). Factors independently associated with higher ePASP were older age, higher BMI, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, COPD and systemic hypertension., Conclusion: In this large population-based study, we show that pulmonary hypertension as measured by echocardiography has a low prevalence in the overall general population in the Netherlands, but estimates may be higher in specific subgroups, especially in those with underlying diseases. Increased pulmonary arterial pressure is likely to gain importance in the near future due to population aging and the accompanying prevalences of underlying disorders.

A prolonged heart rate corrected QT interval (QTc) increases the risk of sudden cardiac death. Some methods of heart rate correction (notably Bazett) overestimate QTc in people with high heart rates. Studies suggest that tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) can prolong the QTc and increase heart rate. Therefore, we aimed to study whether TCA-induced QTc prolongation is a false-positive observation due to overestimation at high heart rates. For this, we included 12,734 participants from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, with a total of 27,068 electrocardiograms (ECGs), of which, 331 during TCA use. Associations between use of TCAs, QTc, and heart rate were studied with linear repeated measurement analyses. QT was corrected for heart rate according to Bazett (QTcBazett), Fridericia (QTcFridericia), or a correction based on regression coefficients obtained from the Rotterdam Study data (QTcStatistical). On ECGs recorded during TCA use, QTcBazett was 6.5 milliseconds (95% confidence interval, 4.0-9.0) longer, and heart rate was 5.8 beats per minute (95% confidence interval, 4.7-6.9) faster than during nonuse. QTcFridericia and QTcStatistical were not statistically significantly longer during TCA use than during nonuse. Furthermore, QTcBazett was similar for ECGs recorded during TCA use and nonuse after statistical adjustment for heart rate. According to our results, TCA use does not seem to be associated with QTc prolongation. Therefore, the current advice of regulatory authorities to restrict the use of these drugs and to do regular checkups of the QTc may need to be revised. Other formulas, like Fridericia's, might be preferred.

Background: Previous studies found an association between osteoarthritis (OA) and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and therefore suggested intensive treatment of cardiovascular risk factors in OA patients. However, prospective population-based data is lacking., Objectives: To investigate the association between OA and CVD longitudinally in a general population and examine the role of disability in this association., Methods: This study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands that started in 1989. At baseline 4648 persons aged ≥55, free of CVD were classified into those with and those without radiographic or clinical OA. HRs adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors for developing CVD (a composite of fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and stroke) were calculated., Results: During a median follow-up of 14.4 years, 1230 cardiovascular events occurred, of which 101 were in participants with clinical OA. Presence of radiographic OA at baseline was not related to future CVD (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.15), neither was presence of clinical OA (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.34). However, persons with increasing disability were more likely to suffer a cardiovascular event compared with non-disabled persons (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.42); this was independent of the presence of OA., Conclusions: In this large population-based study, participants with OA were not at increased risk of CVD. The close relation between disability and osteoarthritis may explain previous findings. Further studies are required in order to clarify whether OA patients need more intensive treatment of their cardiovascular risk factors., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background and Purpose: Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a predictor of heart disease. It has also been related to stroke, but its association with transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) is unclear. Moreover, it is unknown how clinical heart disease influences this relation. Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, the association of NT-proBNP with stroke and TIA was examined and the role of heart disease on this association was investigated., Methods: NT-proBNP was measured in 1997-2001 in 5611 participants (mean age 68.7 years; 57.7% women) without a history of stroke, TIA or heart failure. Follow-up for stroke and TIA finished in 2012. Models were adjusted for age and cardiovascular risk factors, and were stratified by sex., Results: During 22 058 person-years 195 men suffered a stroke and 118 a TIA. During 31 825 person-years 230 women suffered a stroke and 187 a TIA. Higher NT-proBNP was associated with a higher risk of stroke in men [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-1.76] and in women (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46). Associations with TIA were only present in women (HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.26-1.82) but not in men (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.83-1.26). Excluding persons with a history of clinical coronary heart disease, heart failure or atrial fibrillation and censoring for clinical heart disease during follow-up did not change the associations., Conclusions: Higher NT-proBNP is associated with incident stroke in men and women and with incident TIA only in women. These associations are independent of clinical heart disease preceding cerebrovascular disease., (© 2015 EAN.)

Objective: To investigate the association between cardiac function and the risk of stroke and dementia in elderly free of clinical cardiac disease. Additionally, we investigated the relation between cardiac function and MRI markers of subclinical cerebrovascular disease., Methods: This study was conducted within the population-based Rotterdam Study. A total of 3,291 participants (60.8% female, age-range 58-98 years) free of coronary heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, and dementia underwent echocardiography in 2002-2005 to measure cardiac function. Follow-up finished in 2012. In 2005-2006, a random subset of 577 stroke-free people without dementia underwent brain MRI on which infarcts and white matter lesion volume were assessed., Results: During 21,785 person-years of follow-up, 164 people had a stroke and during 19,462 person-years of follow-up, 208 people developed dementia. Measures of better diastolic function, such as higher E/A ratio, were associated with a lower risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69; 0.98) and dementia (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.70; 0.96). Better systolic function, measured as higher fractional shortening, was only associated with a lower risk of stroke (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.72; 0.98). Better diastolic function was related to a lower prevalence of silent infarcts on MRI, especially lacunar infarcts., Conclusions: In elderly free of clinical cardiac disease, worse diastolic function is associated with clinical stroke, dementia, and silent infarcts on MRI, whereas worse systolic function is related only to clinical stroke. These findings can form the basis for future research on the utility of cardiac function as potential intervention target for prevention of neurologic diseases., (© 2015 American Academy of Neurology.)

Study Objectives: The prevalence of sleep disturbances and heart failure increases with age. We aimed to evaluate the associations of incident heart failure and cardiac dysfunction with changes in sleep quality., Methods: This prospective population-based study was conducted in the Rotterdam Study. Of the 3445 eligible persons (mean age 72.0±7.1 years) available for cross-sectional analyses, 8.9% (n = 307) had prevalent clinical heart failure. In longitudinal analyses, 1989 eligible persons (mean age 70.0±5.8 years) were followed for an average of 6.5±0.4 years, of which 4.6% (n = 91) had prevalent or incident clinical heart failure. Heart failure was assessed according to European Society of Cardiology criteria. To estimate cardiac function, we measured left ventricular fractional shortening, left ventricular systolic function, and E/A ratio by echocardiography. Heart failure and cardiac dysfunction were studied with linear regression in relation to sleep quality, assessed by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index., Results: No associations between clinical heart failure and sleep quality were observed in cross-sectional analyses. Clinical heart failure predicted a reduction of sleep quality (B = 1.00 points on the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index; 95% CI 0.40, 1.60) in longitudinal assessment. This association was driven by the sleep onset latency and sleep quality components of the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Cardiac dysfunction was not related to sleep quality in cross-sectional or longitudinal analyses., Conclusions: Clinical heart failure, but not cardiac dysfunction measured by echocardiography, increases the risk of poor sleep quality in the general population over time. These findings suggest that clinical manifestations of heart failure negatively affect sleep., (© 2015 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.)

Background: Although sudden cardiac death (SCD) is relatively common, contemporary data on its incidence are lacking., Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the current incidence of SCD and its trend over the past 2 decades in a general middle-aged and elderly population., Methods: This study was performed within the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study of persons aged 45 years and older. Age-standardized incidence rates of SCD were calculated. To study trends in incidence, we compared 2 subcohorts within the total study population, 1 followed from 1990-2000 and the other from 2001-2010., Results: From 1990-2010, 5512 of 14,628 participants died, of whom 583 (4.0%) were classified as SCD. The overall incidence was 4.2 per 1000 person-years. The incidence was higher in men (5.2 per 1000 person-years) than in women (3.6 per 1000 person-years). Age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.84 (95% confidence [CI] 1.56-2.17) and risk of SCD increased with age (HR 1.10 per year; 95% CI 1.09-1.11). The incidence rate from 1990-2000 was 4.7 per 1000 person-years vs 2.1 per 1000 person-years from 2001-2010 (age- and sex-adjusted HR of SCD 0.60, 95% CI 0.44-0.80). To check for cohort effects, we also analyzed the incidence of total mortality and found an age- and sex-adjusted HR of total mortality of 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.90) for the second compared to the first subcohort, which was significantly higher than the decline in SCD incidence., Conclusion: We found an incidence of SCD of 4.2 per 1000 person-years. The incidence decreased from 1990-2010, a period during which the diagnosis and treatment of heart disease greatly improved., (Copyright © 2015 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework., Design: Prospective population based cohort study., Setting: People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Participants: 8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥ 55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline., Main Outcome Measures: First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death., Results: During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were -7 for any cardiovascular disease, -102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and -1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes, but absolute risk differences between men and women were attenuated for both coronary heart disease and stroke., Conclusions: At age 55, though men and women have similar lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease, there are considerable differences in the first manifestation. Men are more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, while women are more likely to have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as their first event, although these manifestations appear most often at older ages., (© Leening et al 2014.)

Background and Purpose: It remains undetermined whether the use of coumarin anticoagulants associates with cerebral microbleeds in the general population. We investigated whether (1) coumarin use relates to higher prevalence and incidence of microbleeds, (2) microbleeds are more frequent in people with higher maximum international normalized ratios (INRs), and (3) among coumarin users, variability in INR associates with microbleed presence., Methods: From the population-based Rotterdam Study, 4945 participants aged ≥45 years were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 3069 participants had follow-up brain MRI. Information on coumarin use was obtained from automated pharmacy records. Coumarin users were monitored, and INR values were measured in consecutive visits. Presence and location of microbleeds were rated on brain MRI. We investigated the association of coumarin use with microbleeds using multivariable logistic regression., Results: Overall, 8.6% had used coumarin anticoagulants before the first MRI and 5.9% before follow-up MRI. The prevalence of microbleeds was 19.4%, and the incidence was 6.9% during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years (SD, 0.5). Compared with never users, coumarin users had a higher prevalence of deep or infratentorial microbleeds and a higher incidence of any microbleeds, although statistical significance was not reached in the latter. A higher maximum INR was associated with deep or infratentorial microbleeds. Among coumarin users, a greater variability in INR was associated with a higher prevalence of microbleeds., Conclusions: Coumarin use is associated with microbleeds. Associations were strongest for people with greater variability in INR., (© 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.)

When studying the causal effect of drug use in observational data, marginal structural modeling (MSM) can be used to adjust for time-dependent confounders that are affected by previous treatment. The objective of this study was to compare traditional Cox proportional hazard models (with and without time-dependent covariates) with MSM to study causal effects of time-dependent drug use. The example of primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with statins was examined using up to 17.7 years of follow-up from 4,654 participants of the observational prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. In the MSM model, the weight was based on measurements of established cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidity. In general, we could not demonstrate important differences in results from the Cox models and MSM. Results from analysis on duration of statin use suggested that substantial residual confounding by indication was not accounted for during the period shortly after statin initiation. In conclusion, although on theoretical grounds MSM is an elegant technique, lack of data on the precise time-dependent confounders, such as indication of treatment or other considerations of the prescribing physician jeopardizes the calculation of valid weights. Confounding remains a hurdle in observational effectiveness research on preventive drugs with a multitude of prescription determinants.

Importance: The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines introduced a prediction model and lowered the threshold for treatment with statins to a 7.5% 10-year hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Implications of the new guideline's threshold and model have not been addressed in non-US populations or compared with previous guidelines., Objective: To determine population-wide implications of the ACC/AHA, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III), and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines using a cohort of Dutch individuals aged 55 years or older., Design, Setting, and Participants: We included 4854 Rotterdam Study participants recruited in 1997-2001. We calculated 10-year risks for "hard" ASCVD events (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) (ACC/AHA), hard CHD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD mortality) (ATP-III), and atherosclerotic CVD mortality (ESC)., Main Outcomes and Measures: Events were assessed until January 1, 2012. Per guideline, we calculated proportions of individuals for whom statins would be recommended and determined calibration and discrimination of risk models., Results: The mean age was 65.5 (SD, 5.2) years. Statins would be recommended for 96.4% (95% CI, 95.4%-97.1%; n = 1825) of men and 65.8% (95% CI, 63.8%-67.7%; n = 1523) of women by the ACC/AHA, 52.0% (95% CI, 49.8%-54.3%; n = 985) of men and 35.5% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.5%; n = 821) of women by the ATP-III, and 66.1% (95% CI, 64.0%-68.3%; n = 1253) of men and 39.1% (95% CI, 37.1%-41.2%; n = 906) of women by ESC guidelines. With the ACC/AHA model, average predicted risk vs observed cumulative incidence of hard ASCVD events was 21.5% (95% CI, 20.9%-22.1%) vs 12.7% (95% CI, 11.1%-14.5%) for men (192 events) and 11.6% (95% CI, 11.2%-12.0%) vs 7.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-9.2%) for women (151 events). Similar overestimation occurred with the ATP-III model (98 events in men and 62 events in women) and ESC model (50 events in men and 37 events in women). The C statistic was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71) in men and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) in women for hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in men and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in women for hard CHD (ATP-III), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) in men and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) in women for CVD mortality (ESC)., Conclusions and Relevance: In this European population aged 55 years or older, proportions of individuals eligible for statins differed substantially among the guidelines. The ACC/AHA guideline would recommend statins for nearly all men and two-thirds of women, proportions exceeding those with the ATP-III or ESC guidelines. All 3 risk models provided poor calibration and moderate to good discrimination. Improving risk predictions and setting appropriate population-wide thresholds are necessary to facilitate better clinical decision making.

Background: To evaluate the performance of Framingham predictions of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk corrected for the competing risk of non-CVD death, in an independent European cohort of older individuals and subsequently extend the predictions by disentangling CVD into coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke separately., Methods: We used the Rotterdam Study data, a prospective cohort study of individuals aged 55 years and older (N=6004), to validate the Framingham predictions of CVD, defined as first occurrence of myocardial infarction, coronary death or stroke during 15 years of follow-up, corrected for the competing risk of non-CVD death. We subsequently estimated the risks of CHD and stroke separately, and used the sum as a predictor for the total CVD risk. Calibration plots and c-statistics were used to evaluate the performance of the models., Results: Performance of the Framingham predictions was good in the low- to intermediate risk (≤30%, 15-year CVD risk) (17.5% observed vs. 16.6% expected) but poorer in the higher risk (>30%) categories (36.3% observed vs. 44.1% expected). The c-statistic increased from 0.66 to 0.69 after refitting. Separately estimating CHD and stroke revealed considerable heterogeneity with regard to the contribution of CHD and stroke to total CVD risk., Conclusions: Framingham CVD risk predictions perform well in the low- to intermediate risk categories in the Rotterdam Study. Disentangling CVD into CHD and stroke separately provides additional information about the individual contribution of CHD and stroke to total individual CVD risk., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an increasingly popular measure for evaluating improvements in risk predictions. This article details a review of 67 publications in high-impact general clinical journals that considered the NRI. Incomplete reporting of NRI methods, incorrect calculation, and common misinterpretations were found. To aid improved applications of the NRI, the article elaborates on several aspects of the computation and interpretation in various settings. Limitations and controversies are discussed, including the effect of miscalibration of prediction models, the use of the continuous NRI and “clinical NRI,” and the relation with decision analytic measures. A systematic approach toward presenting NRI analysis is proposed: Detail and motivate the methods used for computation of the NRI, use clinically meaningful risk cutoffs for the category-based NRI, report both NRI components, address issues of calibration, and do not interpret the overall NRI as a percentage of the study population reclassified. Promising NRI findings need to be followed with decision analytic or formal cost-effectiveness evaluations.

In this review we discuss cardiovascular mortality, incidence and prevalence of heart disease, and cardiac interventions and surgery in the Netherlands. We combined most recently available data from various Dutch cardiovascular registries, Dutch Hospital Data (LMR), Statistics Netherlands (CBS), and population-based cohort studies, to provide a broad quantitative update. The absolute number of people dying from cardiovascular diseases is declining and cardiovascular conditions are no longer the leading cause of death in the Netherlands. However, a substantial burden of morbidity persists with 400,000 hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease involving over 80,000 cardiac interventions annually. In the Netherlands alone, an estimated 730,000 persons are currently diagnosed with coronary heart disease, 120,000 with heart failure, and 260,000 with atrial fibrillation. These numbers emphasise the continuous need for dedicated research on prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of heart disease in our country.

Unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) is frequent in the general population. Its prognosis is reported to be at least as unpropitious as that of recognized MI, particularly in men. However, contemporary data with long follow-up are lacking. The aims of this study were to investigate the long-term prognosis of unrecognized MI with respect to all-cause and cause-specific mortality and to investigate possible differences in prognosis by gender. In the population-based Rotterdam Study (2,672 men and 3,862 women), the presence of unrecognized MI and recognized MI was determined at baseline (1990 to 1993). The cohort was followed for nearly 2 decades for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. During 82,268 patient-years of follow-up (median 15.6 years) 3,412 patients died (1,300 from cardiovascular causes). Men and women with recognized and unrecognized MIs had increased total mortality rates compared with those without MIs. Hazard ratios (HRs) for men and women were 1.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36 to 1.81) and 1.89 (95% CI 1.56 to 2.30) for recognized MI and 1.72 (95% CI 1.43 to 2.07) and 1.36 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.61) for unrecognized MI. Unrecognized MI was associated with increased risks for cardiovascular mortality (men: HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.66 to 2.91; women: HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.81) and noncardiovascular mortality (men: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.89; women: HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.75). In conclusion, the long-term prognosis of patients with unrecognized MIs is worse compared with those without MIs and applies not only to cardiovascular mortality but also to noncardiovascular mortality. In men, the prognosis is as unfavorable as that of patients with recognized MIs., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Persons with a clinically recognized myocardial infarction are at increased risk for atrial fibrillation. However a large proportion of all myocardial infarctions remain clinically unrecognized. Whether subjects with electrocardiographic signs of an unrecognized myocardial infarction are also at an increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation is unknown. The objective of this study was to investigate whether unrecognized myocardial infarction was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation in a prospective population-based cohort study., Methods: The study is set within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. The study population comprised 2505 men and 3670 women without atrial fibrillation at baseline. Participants were classified based on electrocardiography, interview, and clinical data into those with recognized myocardial infarction, those with ECG based unrecognized myocardial infarction and those without myocardial infarction. Atrial fibrillation was ascertained from ECG assessments as well as medical records., Results: During a mean follow-up of 11.7 years (SD 5.0), 329 men and 398 women developed atrial fibrillation. Unrecognized myocardial infarction was associated with a two-fold risk of developing atrial fibrillation in men (HR: 2.21, 95%CI:1.51 to 3.23) compared to men without a history of myocardial infarction, independent of age, and cardiovascular risk factors. In women, unrecognized myocardial infarction was not associated with atrial fibrillation (HR: 0.92, 95%CI:0.59 to 1.44)., Conclusion: The presence of an unrecognized myocardial infarction is associated with a twofold increased risk of atrial fibrillation in men, independent of known cardiovascular risk factors., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Although clopidogrel reduces the incidence of atherothrombotic events, its use is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding. Cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are indicative of subclinical microangiopathy in the brain and may prelude symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage. We examined the association between use of clopidogrel and CMBs in persons without a history of stroke., Methods and Results: We performed a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort of persons aged 45 years and older. Among 4408 stroke-free individuals who underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging for the detection of CMBs, we identified 121 ever-users and 4287 never-users of clopidogrel before magnetic resonance imaging. We used multiple logistic regression to analyze the association between clopidogrel and CMBs with adjustment for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, and common cardiovascular medication. Users of clopidogrel had a higher prevalence of CMBs (odd ratio 1.55, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.37) than nonusers and more often had a high number (> 4) of CMBs (odds ratio 3.19, 95% CI 1.52 to 6.72). Clopidogrel use was associated with a significantly higher prevalence of deep or infratentorial CMBs (odd ratio 1.90, 95% CI 1.05 to 3.45). Among clopidogrel users, we were unable to demonstrate differences in the prevalence of CMBs by indication of prescription, history of coronary heart disease, or common genetic variants in CYP2C19., Conclusions: In stroke-free individuals, clopidogrel use was associated with a higher prevalence and higher number of CMBs. Whether this association is causal requires confirmation in prospective studies, especially given the small number of participants taking clopidogrel and the possibility of residual confounding in this study.

Background: An elevated resting heart rate is associated with rehospitalization for heart failure and is a modifiable risk factor in heart failure patients. We aimed to examine the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure in a population-based cohort study of healthy adults without pre-existing overt heart disease., Methods and Results: We studied 4768 men and women aged ≥55 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We excluded participants with prevalent heart failure, coronary heart disease, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, atrioventricular block, and those using β-blockers or calcium channel blockers. We used extended Cox models allowing for time-dependent variation of resting heart rate along follow-up. During a median of 14.6 years of follow-up, 656 participants developed heart failure. The risk of heart failure was higher in men with higher resting heart rate. For each increment of 10 beats per minute, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28; P=0.005) in the time-fixed heart rate model and 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25; P=0.017) in the time-dependent heart rate model. The association could not be demonstrated in women (P for interaction=0.004). Censoring participants for incident coronary heart disease or using time-dependent models to account for the use of β-blockers or calcium channel blockers during follow-up did not alter the results., Conclusions: Baseline or persistent higher resting heart rate is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure in healthy older men in the general population.

Background: Risk scores for prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) in older adults are needed., Objective: To develop a sex-specific CHD risk prediction model for older adults that accounts for competing risks for death., Design: 2 observational cohort studies, using data from 4946 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and 4303 participants in the Rotterdam Study (RS)., Setting: Community settings in the United States (CHS) and Rotterdam, the Netherlands (RS)., Participants: Persons aged 65 years or older who were free of cardiovascular disease., Measurements: A composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction and coronary death., Results: During a median follow-up of 16.5 and 14.9 years, 1166 CHS and 698 RS participants had CHD events, respectively. Deaths from noncoronary causes largely exceeded the number of CHD events, complicating accurate CHD risk predictions. The prediction model had moderate ability to discriminate between events and nonevents (c-statistic, 0.63 in both U.S. and European men and 0.67 and 0.68 in U.S. and European women). The model was well-calibrated; predicted risks were in good agreement with observed risks. Compared with the Framingham point scores, the prediction model classified elderly U.S. persons into higher risk categories but elderly European persons into lower risk categories. Differences in classification accuracy were not consistent and depended on cohort and sex. Adding newer cardiovascular risk markers to the model did not substantially improve performance., Limitation: The model may be less applicable in nonwhite populations, and the comparison Framingham model was not designed for adults older than 79 years., Conclusion: A CHD risk prediction model that accounts for deaths from noncoronary causes among older adults provided well-calibrated risk estimates but was not substantially more accurate than Framingham point scores. Moreover, adding newer risk markers did not improve accuracy. These findings emphasize the difficulties of predicting CHD risk in elderly persons and the need to improve these predictions., Primary Funding Source: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research; and the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development.

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the association of coronary artery calcification (CAC) with incident heart failure in the elderly and examine its independence of overt coronary heart disease (CHD)., Background: Heart failure is often observed as a first manifestation of coronary atherosclerosis rather than a sequela of overt CHD. Although numerous studies have shown that CAC, an established measure of coronary atherosclerosis, is a strong predictor of CHD, the association between CAC and future heart failure has not been studied prospectively., Methods: In the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort, 1,897 asymptomatic participants (mean age, 69.9 years; 58% women) underwent CAC scoring and were followed for the occurrence of heart failure and CHD., Results: During a median follow-up of 6.8 years, there were 78 cases of heart failure and 76 cases of nonfatal CHD. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, increasing CAC scores were associated with heart failure (p for trend = 0.001), with a hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7 to 10.1) for CAC scores >400 compared with CAC scores of 0 to 10. After censoring participants for incident nonfatal CHD, increasing extent of CAC remained associated with heart failure (p for trend = 0.046), with a hazard ratio of 2.9 (95% CI: 1.1 to 7.4) for CAC scores >400. Moreover, adding CAC to cardiovascular risk factors resulted in an optimism-corrected increase in the c-statistic by 0.030 (95% CI: 0.001 to 0.050) to 0.734 (95% CI: 0.698 to 0.770) and substantially improved the risk classification of subjects (continuous net reclassification index = 34.0%)., Conclusions: CAC has a clear association with the risk of heart failure, independent of overt CHD. Because heart failure is highly prevalent in the elderly, it might be worthwhile to include heart failure as an outcome in future risk assessment programs incorporating CAC., (Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The prevalence of cardiovascular diseases is rising. Therefore, adequate risk prediction and identification of its determinants is increasingly important. The Rotterdam Study is a prospective population-based cohort study ongoing since 1990 in the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands. One of the main targets of the Rotterdam Study is to identify the determinants and prognosis of cardiovascular diseases. Case finding in epidemiological studies is strongly depending on various sources of follow-up and clear outcome definitions. The sources used for collection of data in the Rotterdam Study are diverse and the definitions of outcomes in the Rotterdam Study have changed due to the introduction of novel diagnostics and therapeutic interventions. This article gives the methods for data collection and the up-to-date definitions of the cardiac outcomes based on international guidelines, including the recently adopted cardiovascular disease mortality definitions. In all, detailed description of cardiac outcome definitions enhances the possibility to make comparisons with other studies in the field of cardiovascular research and may increase the strength of collaborations.

Objective: To examine the association between unrecognised myocardial infarction (MI) as detected by electrocardiography and the long-term risk of heart failure., Design: The Rotterdam Study is a prospective population-based cohort study of the general population of a suburb of the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands., Participants: At baseline 2581 men and 3724 women aged > or =55 years were classified on the basis of electrocardiography, interview and clinical data into those with recognised MI, those with ECG-based unrecognised MI and those without MI. The participants were followed-up for incident heart failure, death or end of the study period on 12 October 2006., Results: During a median follow-up time of 13.2 years, 823 cases of heart failure occurred, of which 403 in men. Independently of cardiovascular risk factors, recognised and unrecognised MIs yielded HRs of developing heart failure in men of 2.6 (95% CI 2.0 to 3.3) and 2.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.9), respectively. In women, recognised MI was associated with heart failure (HR=2.8; 95% CI 1.9 to 4.1), whereas unrecognised MI was not significantly related to the risk of heart failure (HR=1.1; 95% CI 0.7 to 1.7)., Conclusion: Unrecognised MI detected by electrocardiography yields a long-term risk of heart failure equivalent to recognised MI in men, but is not significantly related to heart failure in women. In the light of the high incidence of both unrecognised MI and heart failure in the elderly, it may be worthwhile for both doctors and patients to improve responsiveness to typical and atypical symptoms of MI.