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The outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in China has significantly reduced the country's pig production capability, whilst also having far-reaching impacts on livestock products supply in the wider food system. Previous studies have quantified the potential long-terms impacts on food prices, however, little information is available regarding the direct short-term impacts on food system changes (livestock products supply and consumption patterns) and water quality protection associated with the outbreak. Here, we used multiple sources of data in relation to consumption patterns and water quality to fill this knowledge gap. Our results indicate that the ASF outbreak has changed the short-term livestock products consumption pattern in China, with increasing reliance on importation of livestock products. A rapid change in pork self-sufficiency rate has also driven a rapid increase in the consumer price index of many cities. Banned swill feeding and reversed environmental regulations in the watercourse intense regions has unintended consequences, especially on water quality. Swill, which is no longer fed, was dumped into water waste streams and lowered the sewage treatment efficiency. The re-establishment of pig production back into watercourse intense regions has led to exceedance of local manure nutrient loading capacity of agricultural land. We suggest (a) a short-term intermediate policy to prohibit discharge of swill to sewage systems, to return their previous efficiency, (b) the development of new technologies for the safe recycling of swills, and (c) the design of a long-term intelligent spatial planning of pig production, slaughter and transportation within China to ensure continued protection of water quality vulnerable zones.

Sustainable intensification is a process by which agricultural productivity is enhanced whilst also creating environmental and social benefits. We aimed to identify practices likely to deliver sustainable intensification, currently available for UK farms but not yet widely adopted. We compiled a list of 18 farm management practices with the greatest potential to deliver sustainable intensification in the UK, following a well-developed stepwise methodology for identifying priority solutions, using a group decision-making technique with key agricultural experts. The list of priority management practices can provide the focal point of efforts to achieve sustainable intensification of agriculture, as the UK develops post-Brexit agricultural policy, and pursues the second Sustainable Development Goal, which aims to end hunger and promote sustainable agriculture. The practices largely reflect a technological, production-focused view of sustainable intensification, including for example, precision farming and animal health diagnostics, with less emphasis on the social and environmental aspects of sustainability. However, they do reflect an integrated approach to farming, covering many different aspects, from business organization and planning, to soil and crop management, to landscape and nature conservation. For a subset of 10 of the priority practices, we gathered data on the level of existing uptake in English and Welsh farms through a stratified survey in seven focal regions. We find substantial existing uptake of most of the priority practices, indicating that UK farming is an innovative sector. The data identify two specific practices for which uptake is relatively low, but which some UK farmers find appealing and would consider adopting. These practices are: prediction of pest and disease outbreaks, especially for livestock farms; staff training on environmental issues, especially on arable farms.

China’s livestock industry has experienced a vast transition during the last three decades, with profound effects on domestic and global food provision, resource use, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the driving forces around this transition and its national and global consequences. The number of livestock units (LUs) tripled in China in less than 30 years, mainly through the growth of landless industrial livestock production systems and the increase in monogastric livestock (from 62 to 74% of total LUs). Changes were fueled through increases in demand as well as, supply of new breeds, new technology, and government support. Production of animal source protein increased 4.9 times, nitrogen use efficiency at herd level tripled, and average feed use and GHG emissions per gram protein produced decreased by a factor of 2 between 1980 and 2010. In the same period, animal feed imports have increased 49 times, total ammonia and GHG emissions to the atmosphere doubled, and nitrogen losses to watercourses tripled. As a consequence, China’s livestock transition has significant global impact. Forecasts for 2050, using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios, indicate major further changes in livestock production and impacts. On the basis of these possible trajectories, we suggest an alternative transition, which should be implemented by government, processing industries, consumers, and retailers. This new transition is targeted to increase production efficiency and environmental performance at system level, with coupling of crop-livestock production, whole chain manure management, and spatial planning as major components.