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International audience; Mediterranean regions are regularly affected by heavy convective precipitation. During the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment Intensive Observation Period 13 (HyMeX-IOP13), the multi-platform observation strategy allowed analysing the backbuilding convective systems which developed on 14 October 2012 as well as the associated moisture structures in the environment upstream of convection.The numerical simulation at 2.5-km horizontal resolution succeeds in reproducing the location and time evolution of the observed heavy precipitation systems and the main characteristics of the marine air mass. Convection develops in Southeastern France over the foothills closest to the coast when a moist conditionally unstable marine boundary layer topped by particularly dry air masses is advected inland. Cold air formed by evaporative cooling under the precipitating cells flows down the valleys slowly shifting the location of the backbuilding convective cells from the mountainsides to the coast and over the sea. Surface observations confirm that these simulated backbuilding mechanisms describe realistically the processes involved in the maintenance of the heavy precipitation event.A lagrangian analysis shows that the moisture supply to the convective system is provided by the moist conditionally unstable marine boundary layer while the dry air masses above are involved in the cold pool formation. Four days before the event, both, the dry and the moist air masses, come from the Atlantic Ocean in the lower half of the troposphere. The dry air mass involved in the cold pool formation results from both the advection of mid-level air masses and the drying of low-level air masses lifted up over Spain. For the moist air mass feeding the backbuilding convective systems, most of the air parcels overpass France before travelling almost 48 hours in the lowest 1000m above the Mediterranean. About 50 % of the moisture supply to the precipitating system originates from the evaporation over the sea.

During Intensive Observation Period 13 (15 to 16 October 2012) of the first Special Observing Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX), Southern Italy (SI) was affected by two consecutive heavy precipitation events (HPEs). Both HPEs were associated with multi-cell V-shaped retrograde regeneration mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The life cycle of two MCSs in connection with their dynamic and thermodynamic environments were analysed using a combination of ground-based, airborne and spaceborne observations and numerical simulations. Rain gauges revealed that heavy precipitation occurred in two phases: the first one from 1300 to 1700 UTC (35 mm h-1) was caused by a V-shaped system initiating over the Tyrrhenian Sea in the early morning of 15 October. Convection was triggered by the low-level convergence between the southwesterlies ahead of an upper-level trough positioned over southeastern France and very moist southerlies from the Strait of Sicily. The convection was favoured by high convective available potential energy (1500 J kg-1) resulting from warm and moist conditions at low levels associated with high sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Sicily. In addition, humidity at mid-level was enriched by the presence of an elevated moisture plume from tropical Africa, favouring the efficiency of the convection to produce more precipitation. The second phase of heavy precipitation (2300 UTC on 15 October to 0200 UTC on 16 October, 34 mm h-1) was caused by a MCS initiating over Algeria around 1300 UTC, which subsequently travelled over the Strait of Sicily toward Sicily and SI. Convection was maintained by the combination of large low-level moisture contents and a marked convergence ahead of the cold front. Unlike other MCSs forming in the same region earlier on that day, this huge V-shaped system did affect SI because the strong upper-level flow progressively backed from southwesterly to south southwesterly.

Background: The randomized, double-blind Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) trial found that 4 years of raloxifene therapy decreased the incidence of invasive breast cancer among postmenopausal women with osteoporosis by 72% compared with placebo. We conducted the Continuing Outcomes Relevant to Evista (CORE) trial to examine the effect of 4 additional years of raloxifene therapy on the incidence of invasive breast cancer in women in MORE who agreed to continue in CORE. Methods: Women who had been randomly assigned to receive raloxifene (either 60 or 120 mg/day) in MORE were assigned to receive raloxifene (60 mg/day) in CORE (n = 3510), and women who had been assigned to receive placebo in MORE continued on placebo in CORE (n = 1703). Breast cancer incidence was analyzed by a log-rank test, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: During the CORE trial, the 4-year incidences of invasive breast cancer and estrogen receptor (ER)-positive invasive breast cancer were reduced by 59% (HR = 0.41; 95% CI = 0.24 to 0.71) and 66% (HR = 0.34; 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.66), respectively, in the raloxifene group compared with the placebo group. There was no difference between the two groups in incidence of ER-negative invasive breast cancer during CORE (P = .86). Over the 8 years of both trials, the incidences of invasive breast cancer and ER-positive invasive breast cancer were reduced by 66% (HR = 0.34; 95 % CI = 0.22 to 0.50) and 76% (HR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.40), respectively, in the raloxifene group compared with the placebo group. During the CORE trial, the relative risk of thromboembolism in the raloxifene group compared with that in the placebo group was 2.17 (95% CI = 0.83 to 5.70). This increased risk, also observed in the MORE trial, persisted over the 8 years of both trials. Conclusions: The reduction in invasive breast cancer incidence continues beyond 4 years of raloxifene treatment in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. No new safety concerns related to raloxifene therapy were identified during CORE. © Oxford University Press 2004, all rights reserved.