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Resumo Os estudos de tendência sobre a via de nascimento no Brasil têm revelado um cenário de sucessivos aumentos lineares nas proporções de cesariana. Entretanto, a possibilidade de mudanças na evolução temporal da via cirúrgica não tem sido considerada. Dessa forma, objetivou-se verificar possíveis pontos de inflexão na proporção de cesarianas no Brasil, macrorregiões e unidades federativas, bem como estimar suas projeções para o ano de 2030. Utilizou-se a série temporal com as cesarianas notificadas no Departamento de Informática do SUS no período de 1994 a 2019. Foram utilizados modelos autorregressivos integrados de médias móveis e de regressão joinpoint para obtenção de projeções e de tendências das proporções de cesariana, respectivamente. As proporções de cesarianas apresentaram tendência significativa de aumento ao longo dos 26 anos de estudo em todos os níveis de agregação. Por outro lado, quando se considera a formação de segmentos, observa-se tendência de estabilização no país e nas regiões Sul e Centro-Oeste, a partir de 2012. Norte e Nordeste apresentaram tendência de aumento e o Sudeste, de queda significativa. Projeções indicam que no ano de 2030, 57,4% dos nascimentos no país ocorrerão por via cirúrgica e que nas regiões Sudeste e Sul, serão observadas proporções superiores a 70%. Abstract Trend studies on the model of birth in Brazil show a scenario of successive linear increases in cesarean rates. However, they ignore possible changes in the temporal evolution of this delivery modality. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate possible inflection points in cesarean rates in Brazil, its macro-regions, and federated units, as well as to estimate projections for 2030. A time series with information on cesarean sections from 1994 to 2019 from the SUS Department of Informatics was used. Autoregressive integrated moving average and joinpoint regression models were used to obtain cesarean rate projections and trends, respectively. Caesarean rates showed a significant upward trend over the 26 study years at all levels of aggregation. On the other hand, when considering the formation of segments, a stabilization trend was observed both in the country and in the South and Midwest regions, starting in 2012. Rates tended to increase in North and Northeast and significantly decrease in Southeast. Projections show that in 2030, 57.4% of births in Brazil will be cesarean, with rates higher than 70% in Southeast and South regions.

OBJECTIVE Describe and estimate the rate of recurrent preterm birth in Brazil according to the type of delivery, weighted by associated factors. METHODS We obtained data from the national hospital-based study “Birth in Brazil”, conducted in 2011 and 2012, from interviews with 23,894 women. Initially, we used the chi-square test to verify the differences between newborns according to previous prematurity and type of recurrent prematurity. Sequentially, we applied the propensity score method to balance the groups according to the following covariates: maternal age, socio-economic status, smoking during pregnancy, parity, previous cesarean section, previous stillbirth or neonatal death, chronic hypertension and chronic diabetes. Finally, we performed multiple logistic regression to estimate the recorrence. RESULTS We analyzed 6,701 newborns. The rate of recurrence was 42.0%, considering all women with previous prematurity. Among the recurrent premature births, 62.2% were spontaneous and 37.8% were provider-initiated. After weighting by propensity score, we found that women with prematurity have 3.89 times the chance of having spontaneous recurrent preterm birth (ORaj = 3.89; 95%CI 3.01–5.03) and 3.47 times the chance of having provider-initiated recurrent preterm birth (ORaj = 3.47; 95%CI 2.59–4.66), compared to women who had full-term newborns. CONCLUSIONS Previous prematurity showed to be a strong predictor for its recurrence. Thus, expanding and improving the monitoring and management of pregnant women who had occurrence of prematurity strongly influence the reduction of rates and, consequently, the reduction of infant morbidity and mortality risks in the country. RESUMO OBJETIVO Descrever e estimar a taxa de prematuridade recorrente no Brasil segundo o tipo de parto, ponderado pelos fatores associados. MÉTODOS Os dados foram obtidos do estudo nacional de base hospitalar “Nascer no Brasil”, realizado em 2011 e 2012, a partir de entrevistas com 23.894 mulheres. Inicialmente foi utilizado o teste qui-quadrado para verificar as diferenças entre os recém-nascidos, segundo a prematuridade prévia e o tipo de prematuridade recorrente. Sequencialmente, aplicou-se o método de ponderação pelo escore de propensão para equilibrar os grupos de acordo com as seguintes covariáveis: idade materna, classificação socioeconômica, tabagismo durante a gravidez, paridade, cesárea anterior, natimorto ou óbito neonatal anterior, hipertensão crônica e diabetes crônica. Por último, foi realizada regressão logística múltipla para estimar a prematuridade recorrente. RESULTADOS Foram analisados 6.701 recém-nascidos. A taxa de prematuridade recorrente foi de 42,0%, considerando todas as mulheres com prematuridade prévia. Dentre os prematuros recorrentes, 62,2% foram espontâneos e 37,8% ocorreram por intervenção-obstétrica. Após a ponderação pelo escore de propensão, verificou-se que mulheres com prematuridade prévia têm 3,89 vezes a chance de terem prematuridade recorrente espontânea (ORaj = 3,89; IC95% 3,01–5,03) e 3,47 vezes a chance de terem prematuridade recorrente por intervenção obstétrica (ORaj = 3,47; IC95% 2,59–4,66), em comparação às mulheres que tiveram recém-nascidos termo completo. CONCLUSÕES A prematuridade prévia revelou-se um forte preditor para sua recorrência. Assim, ampliar e melhorar o monitoramento e manejo de gestantes com história de prematuridade impacta fortemente na redução das taxas e, consequentemente, na redução dos riscos de morbimortalidade infantil no país.

Objective: To estimate the rate of the use of antenatal corticosteroids (ANC) among pregnant women and to identify the conditions associated with their non-use in Brazil. Methods: Secondary data analysis from “Birth in Brazil”, a national hospital-based survey carried out in 2011–2012 on childbirth and birth. The sample was characterized regarding maternal age, marital status and maternal education, parity, mode of delivery and place of residence. The association of ANC use with gestational age and type of delivery was analyzed. The studied maternal complications were the presence of hypertension, pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, and pyelonephritis, infection by the HIV virus or acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Results: 2,623 pregnant women with less than 37 weeks of gestational age were identified, and, of these, 835 (31.8%) received ANC. The frequency of ANC use was higher among women with gestational ages between 26–34 weeks (481 cases; 48.73%). In pregnancies with less than 37 weeks, the use of ANC was 23.9% in spontaneous deliveries, 20.6% in induced deliveries and 43.8% among those who did not go into labor. The variables vaginal delivery (OR 2.5; 95%CI 1.8–3.4) and living in the countryside were associated with not using ANC, and the occurrence of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia (OR 1.8; 95%CI 1.2–2.9) was associated with the use of ANC. Conclusions: The use of ANC among Brazilian pregnant women was low. Interventions to increase its use are necessary and can contribute to reduce neonatal mortality and morbidity. ANC should be promoted in pregnancies of less than 37 weeks, especially in cases of vaginal delivery and for those living in the countryside.