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Geographic profiling, a mathematical model originally developed in criminology, is increasingly being used in ecology and epidemiology. Geographic profiling boasts a wide range of applications, such as finding source populations of invasive species or breeding sites of vectors of infectious disease. The model provides a cost-effective approach for prioritizing search strategies for source locations and does so via simple data in the form of the positions of each observation, such as individual sightings of invasive species or cases of a disease. In doing so, however, classic geographic profiling approaches fail to make the distinction between those areas containing observed absences and those areas where no data were recorded. Absence data are generated via spatial sampling protocols but are often discarded during the inference process. Here we construct a geographic profiling model that resolves these issues by making inferences via count data, analyzing a set of discrete sentinel locations at which the number of encounters has been recorded. Crucially, in our model this number can be zero. We verify the ability of this new model to estimate source locations and other parameters of practical interest via a Bayesian power analysis. We also measure model performance via real-world data in which the model infers breeding locations of mosquitoes in bromeliads in Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA. In both cases, our novel model produces more efficient search strategies by shifting focus from those areas containing observed absences to those with no data, an improvement over existing models that treat these areas equally. Our model makes important improvements upon classic geographic profiling methods, which will significantly enhance real-world efforts to develop conservation management plans and targeted interventions., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

Constructing ecological networks has become an indispensable approach in understanding how different taxa interact. However, the methods used to generate data in network research vary widely among studies, potentially limiting our ability to compare results meaningfully. In particular, methods of classifying nodes vary in their precision, likely altering the architecture of the network studied. For example, rather than being classified as Linnaean species, taxa are regularly assigned to morphospecies in observational studies, or to molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) in molecular studies, with the latter defined based on an arbitrary threshold of sequence similarity. Although the use of MOTUs in ecological networks holds great potential, especially for allowing rapid construction of large data sets of interactions, it is unclear how the choice of clustering threshold can influence the conclusions obtained. To test the impact of taxonomic precision on network architecture, we obtained and analyzed 16 data sets of ecological interactions, inferred from metabarcoding and observations. Our comparisons of networks constructed under a range of sequence thresholds for assigning taxa demonstrate that even small changes in node resolution can cause wide variation in almost all key metric values. Moreover, relative values of commonly used metrics such as robustness were seen to fluctuate continuously with node resolution, thereby potentially causing error in conclusions drawn when comparing multiple networks. In observational networks, we found that changing node resolution could, in some cases, lead to substantial changes to measurements of network topology. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of classifying nodes to the greatest precision possible, and demonstrate the need for caution when comparing networks that differ with respect to node resolution, even where taxonomic groups and interaction types are similar. In such cases, we recommend that comparisons of networks should focus on relative differences rather than absolute values between the networks studied., (© 2020 by the Ecological Society of America.)

The tails of non-avialan dinosaurs varied considerably in terms of overall length, total number of vertebrae, and gross form and function. A new dataset confirms that there is little or no consistent relationship between tail length and snout-sacrum length. Consequently, attempts to estimate one from the other are likely to be very error-prone. Patterns of changes in centra lengths across the caudal series vary among non-avian dinosaurs. However, some overarching patterns do emerge. A number of taxa show (anterior to posterior) a series of short centra, followed by a series of longer centra, with the remainder of the tail consisting of a long series of centra tapering in length. This pattern is consistent with functional constraints, and the anterior series of longer centra are coincident with the major attachments of femoral musculature. This pattern is not present in many basal taxa and may have evolved independently in different dinosaurian groups, further suggesting functional importance., Competing Interests: The authors declare there are no competing interests., (©2021 Hone et al.)

Background: Polyploidy has played a major role in angiosperm evolution. Previous studies have examined polyploid phenotypes in comparison to their extant progenitors, but not in context of predicted progenitor phenotypes at allopolyploid origin. In addition, differences in the trends of polyploid versus diploid evolution have not been investigated. We use ancestral character-state reconstructions to estimate progenitor phenotype at allopolyploid origin to determine patterns of polyploid evolution leading to morphology of the extant species. We also compare trends in diploid versus allopolyploid evolution to determine if polyploidy modifies floral evolutionary patterns., Results: Predicting the ancestral phenotype of a nascent allopolyploid from reconstructions of diploid phenotypes at the time of polyploid formation generates different phenotype predictions than when extant diploid phenotypes are used, the outcome of which can alter conclusions about polyploid evolution; however, most analyses yield the same results. Using ancestral reconstructions of diploid floral phenotypes indicate that young polyploids evolve shorter, wider corolla tubes, but older polyploids and diploids do not show any detectable evolutionary trends. Lability of the traits examined (floral shape, corolla tube length, and corolla tube width) differs across young and older polyploids and diploids. Corolla length is more evolutionarily labile in older polyploids and diploids. Polyploids do not display unique suites of floral characters based on both morphological and color traits, but some suites of characters may be evolving together and seem to have arisen multiple times within Nicotiana, perhaps due to the influence of pollinators., Conclusions: Young polyploids display different trends in floral evolution (shorter, wider corolla tubes, which may result in more generalist pollination) than older polyploids and diploids, suggesting that patterns of divergence are impacted by the early consequences of allopolyploidy, perhaps arising from genomic shock and/or subsequent genome stabilization associated with diploidization. Convergent evolution in floral morphology and color in Nicotiana can be consistent with pollinator preferences, suggesting that pollinators may have shaped floral evolution in Nicotiana.

Tigers are critically endangered due to deforestation and persecution. Yet in places, Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) continue to coexist with people, offering insights for managing wildlife elsewhere. Here, we couple spatial models of encounter risk with information on tolerance from 2386 Sumatrans to reveal drivers of human-tiger conflict. Risk of encountering tigers was greater around populated villages that neighboured forest or rivers connecting tiger habitat; geographic profiles refined these predictions to three core areas. People's tolerance for tigers was related to underlying attitudes, emotions, norms and spiritual beliefs. Combining this information into socio-ecological models yielded predictions of tolerance that were 32 times better than models based on social predictors alone. Pre-emptive intervention based on these socio-ecological predictions could have averted up to 51% of attacks on livestock and people, saving 15 tigers. Our work provides further evidence of the benefits of interdisciplinary research on conservation conflicts.

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. We used data from an 8-year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe, to show how geographic profiling-a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology-can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime. The data set contained information on over 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. We used a subset of data for which the illegal hunters' identities were known. Our model identified the illegal hunters' home villages based on the spatial locations of the hunting incidences (e.g., snares). Identification of the villages was improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the conservancy to reflect the fact that although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside the conservancy (in criminology terms, commuter crime). These results combined with rigorous simulations showed for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns, for example, where landscape heterogeneity means some parts of the study area are less likely to be used (e.g., aquatic areas for terrestrial animals) or where landscape permeability differs (e.g., forest bats tend not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target antipoaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently and to develop management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios., (© 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Polyploidy is an important driving force in angiosperm evolution, and much research has focused on genetic, epigenetic and transcriptomic responses to allopolyploidy. Nicotiana is an excellent system in which to study allopolyploidy because half of the species are allotetraploids of different ages, allowing us to examine the trajectory of floral evolution over time. Here, we study the effects of allopolyploidy on floral morphology in Nicotiana, using corolla tube measurements and geometric morphometrics to quantify petal shape. We show that polyploid morphological divergence from the intermediate phenotype expected (based on progenitor morphology) increases with time for floral limb shape and tube length, and that most polyploids are distinct or transgressive in at least one trait. In addition, we show that polyploids tend to evolve shorter and wider corolla tubes, suggesting that allopolyploidy could provide an escape from specialist pollination via reversion to more generalist pollination strategies.

Bovine tuberculosis is a disease of historical importance to human health in the UK that remains a major animal health and economic issue. Control of the disease in cattle is complicated by the presence of a reservoir species, the Eurasian badger. In spite of uncertainty in the degree to which cattle disease results from transmission from badgers, and opposition from environmental groups, culling of badgers has been licenced in two large areas in England. Methods to limit culls to smaller areas that target badgers infected with TB whilst minimising the number of uninfected badgers culled is therefore of considerable interest. Here, we use historical data from a large-scale field trial of badger culling to assess two alternative hypothetical methods of targeting TB-infected badgers based on the distribution of cattle TB incidents: (i) a simple circular 'ring cull'; and (ii) geographic profiling, a novel technique for spatial targeting of infectious disease control that predicts the locations of sources of infection based on the distribution of linked cases. Our results showed that both methods required coverage of very large areas to ensure a substantial proportion of infected badgers were removed, and would result in many uninfected badgers being culled. Geographic profiling, which accounts for clustering of infections in badger and cattle populations, produced a small but non-significant increase in the proportion of setts with TB-infected compared to uninfected badgers included in a cull. It also provided no overall improvement at targeting setts with infected badgers compared to the ring cull. Cattle TB incidents in this study were therefore insufficiently clustered around TB-infected badger setts to design an efficient spatially targeted cull; and this analysis provided no evidence to support a move towards spatially targeted badger culling policies for bovine TB control.

Background and Aims: Speciation in angiosperms can be accompanied by changes in floral colour that may influence pollinator preference and reproductive isolation. This study investigates whether changes in floral colour can accompany polyploid and homoploid hybridization, important processes in angiosperm evolution., Methods: Spectral reflectance of corolla tissue was examined for 60 Nicotiana (Solanaceae) accessions (41 taxa) based on spectral shape (corresponding to pigmentation) as well as bee and hummingbird colour perception in order to assess patterns of floral colour evolution. Polyploid and homoploid hybrid spectra were compared with those of their progenitors to evaluate whether hybridization has resulted in floral colour shifts., Key Results: Floral colour categories in Nicotiana seem to have arisen multiple times independently during the evolution of the genus. Most younger polyploids displayed an unexpected floral colour, considering those of their progenitors, in the colour perception of at least one pollinator type, whereas older polyploids tended to resemble one or both of their progenitors., Conclusions: Floral colour evolution in Nicotiana is weakly constrained by phylogeny, and colour shifts do occur in association with both polyploid and homoploid hybrid divergence. Transgressive floral colour in N. tabacum has arisen by inheritance of anthocyanin pigmentation from its paternal progenitor while having a plastid phenotype like its maternal progenitor. Potentially, floral colour evolution has been driven by, or resulted in, pollinator shifts. However, those polyploids that are not sympatric (on a regional scale) with their progenitor lineages are typically not divergent in floral colour from them, perhaps because of a lack of competition for pollinators., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Investigations of infectious disease outbreaks are conventionally framed in terms of person, time and place. Although geographic information systems have increased the range of tools available, spatial analyses are used relatively infrequently. We conducted a systematic review of published reports of outbreak investigations worldwide to estimate the prevalence of spatial methods, describe the techniques applied and explore their utility. We identified 80 reports using spatial methods published between 1979 and 2013, ca 0.4% of the total number of published outbreaks. Environmental or waterborne infections were the most commonly investigated, and most reports were from the United Kingdom. A range of techniques were used, including simple dot maps, cluster analyses and modelling approaches. Spatial tools were usefully applied throughout investigations, from initial confirmation of the outbreak to describing and analysing cases and communicating findings. They provided valuable insights that led to public health actions, but there is scope for much wider implementation and development of new methods.

Animals collecting patchily distributed resources are faced with complex multi-location routing problems. Rather than comparing all possible routes, they often find reasonably short solutions by simply moving to the nearest unvisited resources when foraging. Here, we report the travel optimization performance of bumble-bees (Bombus terrestris) foraging in a flight cage containing six artificial flowers arranged such that movements between nearest-neighbour locations would lead to a long suboptimal route. After extensive training (80 foraging bouts and at least 640 flower visits), bees reduced their flight distances and prioritized shortest possible routes, while almost never following nearest-neighbour solutions. We discuss possible strategies used during the establishment of stable multi-location routes (or traplines), and how these could allow bees and other animals to solve complex routing problems through experience, without necessarily requiring a sophisticated cognitive representation of space.

We used next generation sequencing to characterize and compare the genomes of the recently derived allotetraploid, Nicotiana tabacum (<200,000 years old), with its diploid progenitors, Nicotiana sylvestris (maternal, S-genome donor), and Nicotiana tomentosiformis (paternal, T-genome donor). Analysis of 14,634 repetitive DNA sequences in the genomes of the progenitor species and N. tabacum reveal all major types of retroelements found in angiosperms (genome proportions range between 17-22.5% and 2.3-3.5% for Ty3-gypsy elements and Ty1-copia elements, respectively). The diploid N. sylvestris genome exhibits evidence of recent bursts of sequence amplification and/or homogenization, whereas the genome of N. tomentosiformis lacks this signature and has considerably fewer homogenous repeats. In the derived allotetraploid N. tabacum, there is evidence of genome downsizing and sequences loss across most repeat types. This is particularly evident amongst the Ty3-gypsy retroelements in which all families identified are underrepresented in N. tabacum, as is 35S ribosomal DNA. Analysis of all repetitive DNA sequences indicates the T-genome of N. tabacum has experienced greater sequence loss than the S-genome, revealing preferential loss of paternally derived repetitive DNAs at a genome-wide level. Thus, the three genomes of N. sylvestris, N. tomentosiformis, and N. tabacum have experienced different evolutionary trajectories, with genomes that are dynamic, stable, and downsized, respectively.

Background: Efficient gene expression involves a trade-off between (i) premature termination of protein synthesis; and (ii) readthrough, where the ribosome fails to dissociate at the terminal stop. Sense codons that are similar in sequence to stop codons are more susceptible to nonsense mutation, and are also likely to be more susceptible to transcriptional or translational errors causing premature termination. We therefore expect this trade-off to be influenced by the number of stop codons in the genetic code. Although genetic codes are highly constrained, stop codon number appears to be their most volatile feature., Results: In the human genome, codons readily mutable to stops are underrepresented in coding sequences. We construct a simple mathematical model based on the relative likelihoods of premature termination and readthrough. When readthrough occurs, the resultant protein has a tail of amino acid residues incorrectly added to the C-terminus. Our results depend strongly on the number of stop codons in the genetic code. When the code has more stop codons, premature termination is relatively more likely, particularly for longer genes. When the code has fewer stop codons, the length of the tail added by readthrough will, on average, be longer, and thus more deleterious. Comparative analysis of taxa with a range of stop codon numbers suggests that genomes whose code includes more stop codons have shorter coding sequences., Conclusions: We suggest that the differing trade-offs presented by alternative genetic codes may result in differences in genome structure. More speculatively, multiple stop codons may mitigate readthrough, counteracting the disadvantage of a higher rate of nonsense mutation. This could help explain the puzzling overrepresentation of stop codons in the canonical genetic code and most variants.

Background: Geographic profiling is a statistical tool originally developed in criminology to prioritise large lists of suspects in cases of serial crime. Here, we use two data sets--one historical and one modern--to show how it can be used to locate the sources of infectious disease., Results: First, we re-analyse data from a classic epidemiological study, the 1854 London cholera outbreak. Using 321 disease sites as input, we evaluate the locations of 13 neighbourhood water pumps. The Broad Street pump--the outbreak's source--ranks first, situated in the top 0.2% of the geoprofile. We extend our study with an analysis of reported malaria cases in Cairo, Egypt, using 139 disease case locations to rank 59 mosquitogenic local water sources, seven of which tested positive for the vector Anopheles sergentii. Geographic profiling ranks six of these seven sites in positions 1-6, all in the top 2% of the geoprofile. In both analyses the method outperformed other measures of spatial central tendency., Conclusions: We suggest that geographic profiling could form a useful component of integrated control strategies relating to a wide variety of infectious diseases, since evidence-based targeting of interventions is more efficient, environmentally friendly and cost-effective than untargeted intervention.

Background: The genus Spartina exhibits extensive hybridization and includes classic examples of recent speciation by allopolyploidy. In the UK there are two hexaploid species, S. maritima and S. alterniflora, as well as the homoploid hybrid S. x townsendii (2n = 60) and a derived allododecaploid S. anglica (2n = 120, 122, 124); the latter two are considered to have originated in Hythe, southern England at the end of the 19th century., Methods: Genomic in situ hybridization (GISH) and flow cytometry were used to characterize the genomic composition and distribution of these species and their ploidy levels at Eling Marchwood and Hythe, both near Southampton, southern England., Key Results: GISH identified approx. 60 chromosomes each of S. maritima and S. alterniflora origin in S. anglica and 62 chromosomes from S. alterniflora and 30 chromosomes from S. maritima in a nonaploid individual from Eling Marchwood, UK. GISH and flow cytometry also revealed that most (94 %) individuals examined at Hythe were hexaploid (the remaining two individuals (6 %) were dodedcaploid; n = 34), whereas hexaploid (approx. 36 % of plants), nonaploid (approx. 27 %) and dodecaploid (approx. 36 %) individuals were found at Eling Marchwood (n = 22)., Conclusions: Nonaploid individuals indicate the potential for introgression between hexaploid and dodecaploid species, complicating the picture of polyploid-induced speciation within the genus. Despite the aggressive ecological habit of S. anglica, it has not out-competed S. x townsendii at Hythe (homoploid hybrids at a frequency of 94 %, n = 34), despite >100 years of coexistence. The success of GISH opens up the potential for future studies of polyploid-induced genome restructuring in this genus.

One little understood feature of polyploid speciation is the transition from polysomic to disomic inheritance, and much recent attention has focused on the role of pairing genes in this process. Using computer simulations we studied the effects of mutations, chromosomal inversions, chiasma, neofunctionalization, subfunctionalization and selection on the evolution of disomic inheritance in a polyploid over 10 000 generations. We show that: the evolution of pairing genes is not essential for the establishment of disomic inheritance, as genetic drift, coupled with a threshold for homologue pairing fidelity, is sufficient to explain the transition from polysomic to disomic inheritance; high rates of recombination increase the number of generations required for disomic inheritance to become established; both neofunctionalization and subfunctionalization speed up the transition to disomic inheritance. The data suggest that during polyploid species establishment, selection will favour reduced chiasma number and/or more focused distribution. The data also suggest a new role for subfunctionalization in that it can drive disomic inheritance. The evolution of subfunctionalization in genes across the genome will then act to maintain genes in syntenic blocks and may explain why such regions are so highly conserved.

Geographic profiling (GP) was originally developed as a statistical tool to help police forces prioritize lists of suspects in investigations of serial crimes. GP uses the location of related crime sites to make inferences about where the offender is most likely to live, and has been extremely successful in criminology. Here, we show how GP is applicable to experimental studies of animal foraging, using the bumble-bee Bombus terrestris. GP techniques enable us to simplify complex patterns of spatial data down to a small number of parameters (2-3) for rigorous hypothesis testing. Combining computer model simulations and experimental observation of foraging bumble-bees, we demonstrate that GP can be used to discriminate between foraging patterns resulting from (i) different hypothetical foraging algorithms and (ii) different food item (flower) densities. We also demonstrate that combining experimental and simulated data can be used to elucidate animal foraging strategies: specifically that the foraging patterns of real bumble-bees can be reliably discriminated from three out of nine hypothetical foraging algorithms. We suggest that experimental systems, like foraging bees, could be used to test and refine GP model predictions, and that GP offers a useful technique to analyse spatial animal behaviour data in both the laboratory and field.

Aim: To compare the phenotypic appearance of the skull bones and teeth of wild type C57BL/6J mice with that of diabetic leptin-deficient (ob/ob) and diabetic leptin receptordeficient (db/db) mice used as models for diabetes., Study Design and Methods: Skulls were extracted from the carcasses of mice belonging to wild-type C57B/6J mice, db/db mice on a C57BLKS/J background, and ob/ob mice on a C57B/6J background. After removal of overlying tissue, the skulls and mandibles were then left to dehydrate and examined for phenotypic variations in structure and wear., Results: Bone surfaces of the skulls of wild type mice had a whiter and smoother surface compared with a yellowish colour with a grainy texture in the two mutant strains. The frontal, parietal and occipital bones were translucent in the two mutant strains. Breakages of the zygomatic arches and mandibles were more common in the ob/ob and db/db mice than in the wild type mice. Half of the teeth of the db/db mice and 90% teeth of the ob/ob mice showed considerable wear compared with marginal wear in the wild type mice., Conclusions: These observations suggested that the teeth of the two diabetic mutant strains are exhibiting considerable signs of hypomineralization with increased fragility and decreased bone thickness.

Geographic profiling was originally developed as a statistical tool for use in criminal cases, particularly those involving serial killers and rapists. It is designed to help police forces prioritize lists of suspects by using the location of crime scenes to identify the areas in which the criminal is most likely to live. Two important concepts are the buffer zone (criminals are less likely to commit crimes in the immediate vicinity of their home) and distance decay (criminals commit fewer crimes as the distance from their home increases). In this study, we show how the techniques of geographic profiling may be applied to animal data, using as an example foraging patterns in two sympatric colonies of pipistrelle bats, Pipistrellus pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus, in the northeast of Scotland. We show that if model variables are fitted to known roost locations, these variables may be used as numerical descriptors of foraging patterns. We go on to show that these variables can be used to differentiate patterns of foraging in these two species.

Mating strategies that lead to increased kinship within socially cooperative groups may offer inclusive fitness benefits to individuals, but can also result in higher levels of inbreeding. Here we show in a sexually segregated bat species that females avoid this conflict through two mating behaviours. First, most females revisit and breed with specific, individual males across years, so that their single offspring born in different years are full siblings. Second, relatives in the maternal line, including mothers and daughters, share breeding partners (intra-lineage polygyny) more often than expected by chance. Although these behaviours increased levels of co-ancestry among colony members, there was no concomitant rise in inbreeding. We suggest that when females engage in mate fidelity and intra-lineage polygyny, kin ties among female roost mates will be strengthened, thereby potentially contributing to social group cohesiveness. Our findings reveal the hidden complexity that can underlie polygynous breeding, and highlight a new potential route by which female mate choice could influence social evolution.