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For the preservation of ecosystems, including the enhancement of ecological strategies, examining the temporal and geographical variance in ecosystem services (ESs) and land use/land cover change (LUCC) is crucial. Gannan is situated on the upper Yellow River, which is a notable water conservation region with excellent ecological quality, but in the background of the local traditional production mode and rapid economic development, natural disasters, grassland degradation, and other ecological problems occur frequently. The integrated valuing of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model are combined in this work to assess the spatiotemporal variance in ESs in Gannan. We set up three scenarios in modeling future land use—ecological protection (EP), natural development (ND), and economic development (ED) in 2050—and analyzed and evaluated the drivers of the variation in ESs. In order to reveal the LUCC in Gannan between 1990 and 2020, we predicted the LUCC and ESs spatial distribution characteristics in 2050, explored the correlation between its driving factors, and comprehensively analyzed and propose optimization measures and protection strategies. Through several simulation experiments, the findings indicate the following: (1) the largest percentage of land expansion for construction in Gannan between 1990 and 2020 is 74.53%, and the most noticeable percentage of shrinkage in the sand area is 20.67%; (2) from 1990 to 2020, Gannan's water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality all changed, by 60 × 108 m3, 0.04 × 108 t, −10.66 × 108 t, and −0.02, respectively; (3) ESs are influenced by a variety of natural and societal variables: the southern and southwestern regions of Gannan are home to the majority of ESs hot spot areas, while the northern region is home to the majority of cold spot areas. This study contributes to the analysis of the developmental traits of Gannan ecosystems and can serve as a model for the preservation of terrestrial ecosystems with comparable environmental traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many years, the Weihe River Basin (WRB) has struggled to achieve a balance between ecological protection and economic growth. Constructing an Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) is extremely important for ensuring ecological security (ES). This study employed a coupling of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to project land use change (LUCC) in 2040 across three scenarios. Leveraging circuit theory, we generated ecological corridors and identified key ecological nodes, enabling a comparative analysis of ESPs within the WRB. The main results showed that: (1) The Ecological Protection (EP) scenario showed the highest proportions of forestland, grassland, and water, indicating an optimal ecological environment. Conversely, the Economic Development (ED) scenario features the greatest proportion of construction land, particularly evident in the rapid urban expansion. The Natural Development (ND) scenario exhibits a more balanced change, aligning closely with historical trends. (2) The ecological source areas in the EP scenario is 13,856.70 km2, with the largest and most intact patch area. The ecological source patches that have been identified in the ED scenario exhibit fragmentation and dispersion, encompassing a total area of 8018.82 km2. The ecological source areas in the ND scenario is most similar to the actual situation in 2020, encompassing 8474.99 km2. (3) The EP scenario demonstrates minimal landscape fragmentation. The ED scenario presents a more intricate corridor pattern, hindering species and energy flow efficiency. The ND scenario is more similar to the actual distribution in 2020. Protecting and restoring key ecological nodes, and ensuring the integrity and connectivity of ecological sources are crucial for ESP optimization in various scenarios. Combining all results, we categorize the WRB's spatial pattern into "three zones, three belts, and one center" and offer strategic suggestions for ecological preservation, promoting sustainable local ecological and socioeconomic development. [Display omitted] • Simulated and predicted land use in the Weihe River Basin using a coupled MOP and PLUS model. • The proportion structure of land use types differs significantly under different scenarios. • The EP scenario identified new ecological sources in the northern Weihe River Basin. • The EP scenario showed a more concise ESP. • Based on the research results, the plan of "three zones, three belts, and one center" for the Weihe River Basin is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]