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Abstract: Variations in fault zone maturity have intermittently been invoked to explain variations in some seismological observations for large earthquakes. However, the lack of a unified geological definition of fault maturity makes quantitative assessment of its importance difficult. We evaluate the degree of empirical correlation between geological and geometric measurements commonly invoked as indicative of fault zone maturity and remotely measured seismological source parameters of 34MW ≥ 6.0 shallow strike‐slip events. Metrics based on surface rupture segmentation, such as number of segments and surface rupture azimuth changes, correlate best with seismic source attributes while the correlations with cumulative fault slip are weaker. Average rupture velocity shows the strongest correlation with metrics of maturity, followed by relative aftershock productivity. Mature faults have relatively lower aftershock productivity and higher rupture velocity. A more complex relation is found with moment‐scaled radiated energy. There appears to be distinct behavior of very immature events which radiate modest seismic energy, while intermediate mature faults have events with higher moment‐scaled radiated energy and very mature faults with increasing cumulative slip tend to have events with reduced moment‐scaled radiated energy. These empirical comparisons establish that there are relationships between remote seismological observations and fault system maturity that can help to understand variations in seismic hazard among different fault environments and to assess the relative maturity of inaccessible or blind fault systems for which direct observations of maturity are very limited.

Two major earthquakes (MW 7.8 and MW 7.7) ruptured left-lateral strike-slip faults of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) on February 6, 2023, causing >59,000 fatalities and ~$119B in damage in southeastern Türkiye and northwestern Syria. Here we derived kinematic rupture models for the two events by inverting extensive seismic and geodetic observations using complex 5-6 segment fault models constrained by satellite observations and relocated aftershocks. The larger event nucleated on a splay fault, and then propagated bilaterally ~350 km along the main EAFZ strand. The rupture speed varied from 2.5-4.5 km/s, and peak slip was ~8.1 m. 9-h later, the second event ruptured ~160 km along the curved northern EAFZ strand, with early bilateral supershear rupture velocity (>4 km/s) followed by a slower rupture speed (~3 km/s). Coulomb Failure stress increase imparted by the first event indicates plausible triggering of the doublet aftershock, along with loading of neighboring faults.

Rapid venting of volcanic material during the 15 January 2022 Tonga eruption generated impulsive downward reaction forces on the Earth of ~2.0 × 1013 N that radiated seismic waves observed throughout the planet, with ~25 s source bursts persisting for ~4.5 hours. The force time history is determined by analysis of teleseismic P waves and Rayleigh waves with periods approximately

Strong tsunami excitation from slow rupture of shallow subduction zone faults is recognized as a key concern for tsunami hazard assessment. Three months after the 22 July 2020 magnitude 7.8 thrust earthquake struck the plate boundary below the Shumagin Islands, Alaska, a magnitude 7.6 aftershock ruptured with complex intraplate faulting. Despite the smaller size and predominantly strike-slip faulting mechanism inferred from seismic waves for the aftershock, it generated much larger tsunami waves than the mainshock. Here we show through detailed analysis of seismic, geodetic, and tsunami observations of the aftershock that the event implicated unprecedented source complexity, involving weakly tsunamigenic fast rupture of two intraplate faults located below and most likely above the plate boundary, along with induced strongly tsunamigenic slow thrust slip on a third fault near the shelf break likely striking nearly perpendicular to the trench. The thrust slip took over 5 min, giving no clear expression in seismic or geodetic observations while producing the sizeable far-field tsunami.

So far in this century, six very large-magnitude earthquakes (MW ≥ 7.8) have ruptured separate portions of the subduction zone plate boundary of western South America along Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. Each source region had last experienced a very large earthquake from 74 to 261 y earlier. This history led to their designation in advance as seismic gaps with potential to host future large earthquakes. Deployments of geodetic and seismic monitoring instruments in several of the seismic gaps enhanced resolution of the subsequent faulting processes, revealing preevent patterns of geodetic slip deficit accumulation and heterogeneous coseismic slip on the megathrust fault. Localized regions of large slip, or asperities, appear to have influenced variability in how each source region ruptured relative to prior events, as repeated ruptures have had similar, but not identical slip distributions. We consider updated perspectives of seismic gaps, asperities, and geodetic locking to assess current very large earthquake hazard along the South American subduction zone, noting regions of particular concern in northern Ecuador and Colombia (1958/1906 rupture zone), southeastern Peru (southeasternmost 1868 rupture zone), north Chile (1877 rupture zone), and north-central Chile (1922 rupture zone) that have large geodetic slip deficit measurements and long intervals (from 64 to 154 y) since prior large events have struck those regions. Expanded geophysical measurements onshore and offshore in these seismic gaps may provide critical information about the strain cycle and fault stress buildup late in the seismic cycle in advance of the future great earthquakes that will eventually strike each region.

On 22 December 2018, a devastating tsunami struck Sunda Strait, Indonesia without warning, leaving 437 dead and thousands injured along the western Java and southern Sumatra coastlines. Synthetic aperture radar and broadband seismic observations demonstrate that a small,

Despite the surge of great earthquakes along subduction zones over the last decade and advances in observations and analysis techniques, it remains unclear whether earthquake complexity is primarily controlled by persistent fault properties or by dynamics of the failure process. We introduce the radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF), given by the ratio of an event's directly measured radiated energy to the calculated minimum radiated energy for a source with the same seismic moment and duration, to quantify the rupture complexity. The REEF measurements for 119 large [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 to 9.2] megathrust earthquakes distributed globally show marked systematic regional patterns, suggesting that the rupture complexity is strongly influenced by persistent geological factors. We characterize this as the existence of smooth and rough rupture patches with varying interpatch separation, along with failure dynamics producing triggering interactions that augment the regional influences on large events. We present an improved asperity scenario incorporating both effects and categorize global subduction zones and great earthquakes based on their REEF values and slip patterns. Giant earthquakes rupturing over several hundred kilometers can occur in regions with low-REEF patches and small interpatch spacing, such as for the 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, or in regions with high-REEF patches and large interpatch spacing as in the case for the 2004 Sumatra and 1906 Ecuador-Colombia earthquakes. Thus, combining seismic magnitude Mw and REEF, we provide a quantitative framework to better represent the span of rupture characteristics of great earthquakes and to understand global seismicity.

Fault slip during plate boundary earthquakes releases a portion of the shear stress accumulated due to frictional resistance to relative plate motions. Investigation of 101 large [moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 7] subduction zone plate boundary mainshocks with consistently determined coseismic slip distributions establishes that 15 to 55% of all master event-relocated aftershocks with Mw ≥ 5.2 are located within the slip regions of the mainshock ruptures and few are located in peak slip regions, allowing for uncertainty in the slip models. For the preferred models, cumulative deficiency of aftershocks within the central three-quarters of the scaled slip regions ranges from 15 to 45%, increasing with the total number of observed aftershocks. The spatial gradients of the mainshock coseismic slip concentrate residual shear stress near the slip zone margins and increase stress outside the slip zone, driving both interplate and intraplate aftershock occurrence near the periphery of the mainshock slip. The shear stress reduction in large-slip regions during the mainshock is generally sufficient to preclude further significant rupture during the aftershock sequence, consistent with large-slip areas relocking and not rupturing again for a substantial time.

Earthquakes in deeply subducted oceanic lithosphere can involve either brittle or dissipative ruptures. On 24 November 2015, two deep (606 and 622 km) magnitude 7.5 and 7.6 earthquakes occurred 316 s and 55 km apart. The first event (E1) was a brittle rupture with a sequence of comparable-size subevents extending unilaterally ~50 km southward with a rupture speed of ~4.5 km/s. This earthquake triggered several aftershocks to the north along with the other major event (E2), which had 40% larger seismic moment and the same duration (~20 s), but much smaller rupture area and lower rupture speed than E1, indicating a more dissipative rupture. A minor energy release ~12 s after E1 near the E2 hypocenter, possibly initiated by the S wave from E1, and a clear aftershock ~165 s after E1 also near the E2 hypocenter, suggest that E2 was likely dynamically triggered. Differences in deep earthquake rupture behavior are commonly attributed to variations in thermal state between subduction zones. However, the marked difference in rupture behavior of the nearby Peru doublet events suggests that local variations of stress state and material properties significantly contribute to diverse behavior of deep earthquakes.

Deep-focus earthquakes, located in very high-pressure conditions 300 to 700 km below the Earth's surface within sinking slabs of relatively cold oceanic lithosphere, are mysterious phenomena. The largest recorded deep-focus earthquake (MW 7.9) in the Izu-Bonin slab struck on 30 May 2015 beneath the Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, isolated from prior seismicity by over 100 km in depth, and followed by only a few small aftershocks. Globally, this is the deepest (680 km centroid depth) event with MW≥7.8 in the seismological record. Seismicity indicates along-strike contortion of the Izu-Bonin slab, with horizontal flattening near a depth of 550 km in the Izu region and rapid steepening to near-vertical toward the south above the location of the 2015 event. This event was exceptionally well-recorded by seismic stations around the world, allowing detailed constraints to be placed on the source process. Analyses of a large global data set of P, SH and pP seismic phases using short-period back-projection, subevent directivity, and broadband finite-fault inversion indicate that the mainshock ruptured a shallowly-dipping fault plane with patchy slip that spread over a distance of ~40 km with a multi-stage expansion rate (~5+ km/s down-dip initially, ~3 km/s up-dip later). During the 17 s total rupture duration the radiated energy was ~3.3×1016 J and the stress drop was ~38 MPa. The radiation efficiency is moderate (0.34), intermediate to that of the 1994 Bolivia and 2013 Sea of Okhotsk MW 8.3 deep earthquakes, indicating that source processes of very large deep earthquakes sample a wide range of behavior from dissipative, more viscous failure to very brittle failure. The isolated occurrence of the event, much deeper than the apparently thermally-bounded distribution of Bonin-slab seismicity above 600 km depth, suggests that localized stress concentration associated with the pronounced deformation of the Izu-Bonin slab and proximity to the 660-km phase transition likely played a dominant role in generating this major earthquake.

Most seismological models for the interior of Mars lack an upper mantle low velocity zone. However, there is expected to be a large thermal gradient across the stagnant conductive lid (lithosphere) of Mars. This gradient should tend to decrease elastic wave velocities with increasing depth, with this effect dominating the opposing tendency caused by increasing pressure with depth because Mars has low gravity. An upper mantle lithosphere with a low velocity zone (LVZ) beneath a thin high velocity “seismic lid” is thus predicted. The upcoming NASA InSight mission includes a three-component seismometer, which should provide the first opportunity to directly detect any lithospheric LVZ in Mars. Seismic wavefields expected for Mars mantle velocity structures with or without a strong LVZ are very distinct. The LVZ models predict shadow zones for high-frequency seismic body wave phases such as P, S, PP and SS, etc. The most diagnostic waves that can be used to evaluate presence of a lithospheric LVZ given a single seismometer are intermediate-period global surface waves, which travel along the great circle from a seismic source to the seismometer. An LVZ produces distinctive dispersion, with a Rayleigh wave Airy phase around 100 s period and very different surface wave seismograms compared to a model with no LVZ. Even a single observation of long-period surface waves from a known range can be diagnostic of the lithospheric structure.

Seismic activity preceding recent large earthquakes, including the 1 April 2014 earthquake in Chile, hints that some large earthquakes may potentially be predictable.

Seismic activity preceding recent large earthquakes, including the 1 April 2014 earthquake in Chile, hints that some large earthquakes may potentially be predictable.