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Redundant deliberation is a cognitively demanding form of inertia in which a decision-maker fails to gain any additional advantage by thinking about a problem compared to the risk of failing to act and deal with the problem. It most commonly occurs where there is no standard operating procedure (to help provide guidance) or where experience is lacking. This article argues that training interventions, including ‘grim storytelling’, must focus on supporting decision-makers’ ability to imagine rare, high-impact events, and construct ‘least–worst’ scenarios to help them anticipate, prevent, mitigate, adapt to and recover from such threats.

IntroductionPancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Screening for this disease has potential to improve survival. It is not feasible, with current screening modalities, to screen the asymptomatic adult population. However, screening of individuals in high-risk groups is recommended. Our study aims to provide resources and data that will inform strategies to screen individuals with new-onset diabetes (NOD) for pancreatic cancer.Methods and analysisThe United Kingdom Early Detection Initiative (UK-EDI) for pancreatic cancer is a national, prospective, observational cohort study that aims to recruit 2500 individuals with NOD (Ethics and disseminationThe UK-EDI study has been reviewed and approved by the London-West London and GTAC Research Ethics Committee (Ref 20/LO/0058). Study results will be disseminated through presentations at national and international symposia and publication in peer-reviewed, Open Access journals.

On average, more than 200 child sex offences were recorded by UK police every day in 2020, and investigations for offences including rape, online grooming and sexual assault against children in the United Kingdom (UK) increased by 57% from 2014/15 to 2019/20. The interview process is central to information gathering, but empirical research regarding the obtention of information through child sexual abuse (CSA) suspect interviewing is still limited. The current study analyses 45 hours of interviews with CSA suspects focusing on behaviours consistent (and inconsistent) with motivational interviewing (MI) using the Observing Rapport-Based Interpersonal Techniques coding manual. In line with previous research demonstrating the efficacy of MI with terrorist suspects, this article focuses on the same four key interviewer skills identified in the therapeutic literature (reflective listening, summarising, rolling with resistance and developing discrepancies). It looks at their effects on information yield (information of intelligence value) and suspect engagement. Results revealed that the four MI-consistent behaviours increased information gain. Also, approaches antithetical to MI (including assumptive questioning, judgemental summaries, fighting resistance and accusatory challenges) had a significant negative impact on suspect engagement and, by extension, reduced yield – potentially by creating suspect reactance (where the individual is motivated to regain a freedom they feel is being threatened). Hence, MI approaches are efficacious for information-gathering efforts, and using an approach antithetical to the spirit of motivational interviewing (like pressuring, confronting and judging) with CSA suspects will always make things worse.

The paper explores the relationships between individual differences in intelligence and personality and the ability to extract critical information (and identify missing but required information) from a suspect’s brief sheet (i.e. model formulation) and develop a suitable line of questioning (i.e. approach strategizing) in interrogation scenarios. We hypothesised that cognitive flexibility, emotion management, low need for closure and rapport would all be predictors of these abilities. Two hundred and seventy-four participants of different backgrounds were exposed to two interrogation scenarios to assess model formation and approach strategizing abilities, as well as intelligence and personality tests. Benchmarks for performance were measured against two experienced interrogators and two psychologists’ calibrated performance. In terms of overall performance, only rapport and cognitive flexibility were significant positive predictors. Whereas only rapport was a positive predictor of approach strategizing, both rapport and cognitive flexibility were positive predictors of model formation. In conclusion, the data from the early stage of our project suggests that the examined factors should be carefully considered when training and selecting optimal interrogators. Though previous research has identified a number of individual differences in intelligence and personality that are important in demanding law-enforcement contexts, ours is the first to explore them with respect to effective interrogator performance.

When decisions are made under time pressure, individuals tend to reduce the number of hypotheses generated to explain and solve problems. This research investigates the extent to which individual differences in (a) domain-specific experience, (b) fluid intelligence, (c) need for closure (NFC), and (d) time urgency moderated the effect of time pressure on investigative hypothesis generation. Korean detectives ( N = 133) participated in simulated investigative scenarios. To induce the perception of time pressure, one group was informed that the task would have to be completed under time pressure ( N = 66), whereas the other group did not receive this instruction ( N = 67); although both groups had the same amount of time). Outcomes included the number and quality of hypotheses generated for solving the case. The quality of hypotheses generated was measured against criteria established by expert detectives. Results revealed that time pressure directly decreased the quantity and quality of hypotheses generated. In the relationships, low time urgency moderated the effect of time pressure on the number and quality of hypotheses generated, also low NFC moderated the impact of time pressure on the number of hypotheses generated. Furthermore, the most experienced detectives were least affected by the negative association between time pressure and the quality of hypotheses generated. The findings suggest lower time urgency, lower NFC and more experience are adaptive ‘protective’ factors against the negative impact of time pressure on hypothesis generation within high stakes and uncertain situations such as rape investigations.

Can an interviewer influence the cooperativeness of an interviewee? The role of an interviewer in actualising a successful interview is an active field of social psychological research. A large-scale analysis of interviews, however, typically involves time-exorbitant manual tasks and considerable human effort. Despite recent advances in computational fields, many automated methods continue to rely on manually labelled training data to establish ground-truth. This reliance obscures explainability and hinders the mobility of analysis between applications. In this work, we introduce a cross-disciplinary approach to analysing interviewer efficacy. We suggest computational success measures as a transparent, automated, and reproducible alternative for pre-labelled data. We validate these measures with a small-scale study with human-responders. To study the interviewer’s influence on the interviewee we utilise features informed by social psychological theory to predict interview quality based on the interviewer’s linguistic behaviour. Our psychologically informed model significantly outperforms a bag-of-words model, demonstrating the strength of a cross-disciplinary approach toward the analysis of conversational data at scale.

Abstract. When presented with competing options, critical incident decision makers often struggle to commit to a choice (in particular when all options appear to yield negative consequences). Despite being motivated to take action in disasters, terrorism, major investigations, and complex political interventions, decision makers can become inert, looping between phases of situation assessment, option generation, and option evaluation. This “looping” is functionally redundant when it persists until they have lost the opportunity to take action. We define this as “decision inertia”: the result of a process of (redundant) deliberation over possible options and in the absence of any further useful information. In the context of critical incidents (political, security, military, law enforcement) we have discovered that rather than disengaging and avoiding difficult choices, decision makers are acutely aware of the negative consequences that might arise if they failed to decide (i.e., the incident would escalate). The sensitization to possible future outcomes leads to intense deliberation over possible choices and their consequences and, ultimately, can result in a failure to take any action in time (or at all). We (i) discuss decision inertia as a novel psychological process of redundant deliberation during crises; (ii) define the concept and discuss the emerging studies in support of our tentative hypotheses regarding how the cognitively active process of deliberation can result in complete behavioral inactivity; and (iii) suggest recommendations and interventions for combatting inertia.

This paper explores the current state of automated systems in the Royal Navy (RN), as well as exploring where personnel view systems would have the most benefit to their operations in the future. In addition, personnel’s views on the current consultation process for new systems are presented. Currently serving RN personnel ( n = 46) completed a questionnaire distributed at the Maritime Warfare School. Thematic analysis was conducted on the 5,125 words that were generated by personnel. Results show that RN personnel understand the requirement to utilize automated systems to maintain capability in the increasingly complex environments they face. This requirement will increase as future warfare continues to change and increasingly sophisticated threats are faced. However, it was highlighted that current consultation and procurement procedures often result in new automated systems that are not fit for purpose at time of release. This has negative consequences on operator tasks, for example by increasing workload and reducing appropriate system use, as well as increasing financial costs associated with the new systems. It is recommended that an increase in communication and collaboration between currently serving personnel and system designers may result in preventing the release of systems that are not fit for purpose.

This paper replicates and extends Porter and Alison’s (2001. A partially ordered scale of influence in violent group behavior: An example from gang rape. Small Group Research, 32(4), 475–497) metho...

Multiteam systems (MTSs) are comprised of two or more interconnected teams working toward shared superordinate goals but with unique sub-goals. To date, research has predominantly focused on how decisions are made and has viewed these cognitive processes as occurring within individuals. However, for MTSs operating in extreme environments such as disasters, it is often not a question of how decisions are made, but what is causing delays and failures to make decisions. To understand the causes of decision delay within these complex networks, it is important to focus on decision processes at the multiteam level. Using naturalistic observational and interview data collected during a multi-site, multiteam emergency response to a large-scale disaster exercise, this study examines both information sharing (what was shared, with whom, how long this took), and decision processes across teams (situational awareness—SA, plan formulation, and plan execution). Findings demonstrate that interdependencies in cognitive processes exist across individuals where goals overlap. Decision delay is not only caused by failure to develop SA within a team preventing their ability to formulate and execute plans but also by the inability of other teams to execute their plans. The implications of these findings for developing targeted interventions are discussed.

This paper focuses on how Soldiers make hard choices between competing options. To understand the psychological processes behind these types of decisions, we present qualitative data collected from...

ObjectiveIn this study, we extend the impact of mindfulness to the concept of least-worst decision-making. Least-worst decisions involve high-uncertainty and require the individual to choose between a number of potentially negative courses of action. Research is increasingly exploring least-worst decisions, and real-world events (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) show the need for individuals to overcome uncertainty and commit to a least-worst course of action. From sports to business, researchers are increasingly showing that “being mindful” has a range of positive performance-related benefits. We hypothesized that mindfulness would improve least-worst decision-making because it would increase self-reflection and value identification. However, we also hypothesized that trait maximization (the tendency to attempt to choose the “best” course of action) would negatively interact with mindfulness.MethodsThree hundred and ninety-eight participants were recruited using Amazon MTurk and exposed to a brief mindfulness intervention or a control intervention (listening to an audiobook). After this intervention, participants completed the Least-Worst Uncertain Choice Inventory for Emergency Responders (LUCIFER).ResultsAs hypothesized, mindfulness increased decision-making speed and approach-tendencies. Conversely, for high-maximizers, increased mindfulness caused a slowing of the decision-making process and led to more avoidant choices.ConclusionsThis study shows the potential positive and negative consequences of mindfulness for least-worst decision-making, emphasizing the critical importance of individual differences when considering both the effect of mindfulness and interventions aimed at improving decision-making.

In 2013, there were an estimated 50,000 individuals involved in downloading and sharing indecent images of children (IIOC) in the United Kingdom (UK). This poses challenges for limited police resources. We argue that police officers can make most effective use of limited resources by prioritizing those offenders who pose the greatest risk of contact offending, by nature of demonstrable pedophilia, hebephilia or dual offending status and thus, those at highest risk must be dealt with first. What is currently lacking is a clear idea of the potential scale of the problem in socio-economic terms and why, therefore, it is so important that evidence-based approaches to offender detection and investigation continue to be a top priority for funders and policy makers. A systematic literature review was undertaken to address two related questions. First, what is the scale of the problem in the UK, in terms of the number of pedophilic and hebephilic individuals who pose a risk of contact offending against a child? Second, what is the potential socio-economic burden generated by the national IIOC suspect pool if left unattended to by targeted police action? Applying population estimates of pedophilia and hebephilia to the male population (16–89 years), we estimate there are between 2,365–5,991 males with paedophila and 12,218–30,952 males with hebephilia who are likely contact offenders. Applying average prevalence and incidence based costing methods to a conservative estimate of one victim per offender, the combined socio-economic burden from these persons could amount to £236-£597 million (incident costs) increasing to £2.9-£7.3 billion (lifetime costs; £3.3-£8.3 billion including QALY measures). Applying the same costs to CEOP (2013) estimate of 50,000 IIOC offenders we estimate that between 6,000 and 27,500 dual offenders could have already committed past contact offenses, contributing an economic burden of between £97–£445 million (incident costs) increasing to £1.2–£5.4 billion (lifetime costs; £1.4–£6.2 billion including QALY measures). Future contact offenses could contribute a further burden of £16–£18.6 million (incident costs) increasing to £198–£227 million (lifetime costs; £226–£260 million including QALY measures). Drawing upon these findings, we argue for the benefits of a research-informed prioritization approach to target IIOC offenders.

This chapter discusses the ORBIT approach to managing difficult interpersonal behavior. It outlines the history and evolution of theories of interpersonal relating, which informed the ORBIT interpersonal circumplex. The ORBIT circumplex organizes behaviors across two axes: the power axis (ranging from controlling to capitulating behaviors) and the intimacy axis (ranging from cooperative to confrontational behaviors). The model consists of eight octants of behavior based on combinations of these two axes (e.g., controlling, controlling–cooperative, controlling–confrontational). The chapter includes the ORBIT coding framework for identifying each of these groups of behavior and their adaptive and maladaptive variants. Real-world examples of interrogations with convicted terrorist Anders Breivik and Parkland School shooter Nikolas Cruz are used to highlight the complexities of different suspect behaviors and how they would be assessed using the ORBIT interpersonal wheels.

This chapter discusses the concept and potential issues surrounding “urgent safety” or “imminent threat” interviews. It also summarizes a series of observations of law enforcement officers’ performance during simulated urgent interviews across a series of training exercises. The authors’ observations (both from psychologists as trainers and police facilitators) include the following: (1) safety interviewing appears to require a different skill set from evidential interviewing; (2) officers struggled to communicate a sense of intensity, gravity, and urgency required of an interview that aims to obtain information very quickly to preserve life and maintain public safety; (3) in order to improve, interviewers must practice these sorts of interactions more often (they require deliberate practice and feedback with guidance); and (4) elements of interviewing and time-sensitive questioning in the military may offer a useful template of the intensity and urgency required in police safety interviews.

This chapter outlines the history of “harsh” interrogation methods based on coercion and torture. This includes discussion of the US “Enhanced Interrogation” Program and the British military’s development and use of the “Five Techniques,” along with real-world examples, including the interrogation of two detainees thought to be associated with the 2001 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. The chapter discusses the underlying theory behind the use of torture and coercion and explains why these interrogation methods are ineffective at obtaining reliable information from detainees. It also describes the reasons why torture continues to be used. Such reasons relate to revenge, dehumanization, and hatred.

This chapter outlines the definition of and use of rapport, based on principles of humanistic psychology. While rapport has been recognized in countless studies as a key feature of successful interrogations, it has historically been poorly defined and operationalized. This chapter uses real-world examples to highlight what rapport is and what it is not. The chapter also highlights key concepts and strategies drawn from the motivational interviewing literature that can be successfully applied to an interrogation context. Specifically, the chapter discusses a form of interviewee resistance known as “reactance,” which can be created by an interviewer trying too hard to make someone talk.

This chapter provides a detailed overview of the Observing Rapport Based Interpersonal Techniques (ORBIT) model of interviewing and its principles. It discusses how ORBIT is unique in that it evolved out of analysis of the largest sample of real-world interrogations in the world. The authors explain how they gained access to the data and their approach to analysis and coding. The chapter then describes the ORBIT approach to building rapport and describes ORBIT’s interpersonal behavior model. It also outlines the other variables that make up the ORBIT coding framework, including their measure of detainee engagement and yield. It uses a real-world example of an interrogation with Colonel Russel Williams to show how the ORBIT model works in practice.

This chapter is concerned with individual and social factors that may influence suspects’ decision-making during police interviews, as well as with the procedural and contextual landscape in which the interviews take place. The focus is on presenting descriptive data on a sample of 20 terrorist organization and organized criminal gang suspects and data regarding individual and contextual factors relating to each suspect in the sample. These factors include fear, status and relationship, criminal background, legal advice, strength of evidence, timing of arrest, type or circumstances of arrest or detention, and duration between offense and arrest. Using these outside-the-room factors as a framework, this chapter provides descriptive data on these factors as it pertained to the 20 suspects in the sample as well as data on the outcome of the process. The interviews with the suspects are also examined to identify and present instances of these factors arising in interactions between police interviewers and the suspects.

This chapter examines the impact of the UK National Counter-Terrorism Training program (Alcyone). Alcyone is a 6-day course that provides the following: (1) psychological training in Observing Rapport Based Interpersonal Techniques (ORBIT), (2) input on pre-interview briefing, and (3) legislation and input on safety interviewing. Approximately 80% of the course involves scenario-based role-play with additional knowledge checks and short lecture inputs. The chapter details the analysis used to assess the program’s impact. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed that Alcyone-trained officers showed a significantly greater reliance on adaptive interpersonal skills that had been taught in the course and demonstrated significantly fewer maladaptive interpersonal behaviors that they had been taught to avoid. There was also a significant increase in the use of rapport-based behaviors and a greater extraction of information from the suspects. Although several other factors may also account for an increase in yield, the increase in all the aspects that these officers had been taught in the course provides support that the course had a positive impact. This has implications for interview training programs and for the dissemination of evidence-based practice for counterterrorism interviewing.

This chapter focuses on the complex history that psychologists have had with involvement in interrogations and the how psychologists might continue to work in this field. It discusses the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA’s) controversial MKUltra program, which was designed to explore brainwashing techniques and the various influential people associated with it. The chapter then outlines the potential ethical issues surrounding psychologists’ involvement in interrogations and the principles within which ORBIT must be used. The chapter concludes with a discussion of where research on interrogation might head next.

Motivational interviewing (MI) is an evidence-based intervention that has proved effective across diverse clinical contexts with clients ambivalent about and resistant to behavioral change. This article argues that the principles of MI can be successfully applied to law enforcement (LE) interviews with high-value detainees (HVDs; i.e., terrorist suspects). Although the forms of ambivalence and resistance may differ from those in clinical contexts, HVDs must make the decision whether to talk or not when they are interviewed. We argue there is likely ambivalence regarding this. We theorized that 4 MI-consistent (MI) skills may be useful for LE interviewers: reflective listening, summaries, rolling with resistance, and developing discrepancies. Using the Observing Rapport Based Interpersonal Techniques coding manual (Alison, Alison, Elntib, & Noone, 2012), we analyzed 804 tapes of LE interviews with 75 terrorism suspects in the United Kingdom. Multilevel structural equation modeling revealed that MI skills encouraged detainee engagement and subsequent information gain. It also revealed that any approach antithetical to MI had a profoundly negative impact on detainee engagement and subsequent information gain-potentially through creating reactance (a form of resistance based on motivations to regain a freedom when it is threatened). Overall, this research provides unique evidence for the use of specific skills and approaches that can increase or decrease HVD engagement and information provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Police officers around the world must often select between equally unappealing, uncertain courses of action in an attempt to achieve the best outcome. Despite the immense importance of such decisions, there remains a lack of understanding in the study of individual differences in police decision-making. Here, using a sample of senior police officers recruited from decision-making training events across the United Kingdom (n = 96), we used the Least-worst Uncertain Choice Inventory For Emergency Responses (LUCIFER) to measure the effect of maximization on both domain-specific (police) and domain-general (military) decisions. In line with a wealth of research on traditional "consumer" decisions, we found that police officers who were "maximizers" found decisions more difficult. Gender and previous military experience also influenced the process of decision-making. Specifically, police officers with military experience took more time to assess the situation but were faster to choose a course of action and commit to it. Female police officers also were slower to assess the situation. As recent events show, the outcomes of police decisions have significant consequences for the public, the officers involved, the police force as a whole, and the wider population, yet psychological research has yet to fully explore the role of individual differences in how such decisions are made. While this study does not seek to identify factors associated with "good" or "better" decision-makers, it provides strong support for the need to factor in perspectives of the individual when creating theory, or applied tools, in support of police decision-making.

Individuals responsible for decision-making during critical incidents must wrestle with uncertainty, complexity, time pressure, and accountability. Critical incidents are defined as rare events where demand outstrips resources and where there are high stakes, uncertainty, and dynamic and ever-shifting elements that frustrate clear predictions. This paper argues that critical-incident decision-making is highly complex because many critical incidents have no such analogue, and thus there is no prior experience to draw upon. Further, while prescriptive models argue for a selection of a "best" outcome, rarely in critical incidents is there a "best" outcome and, instead, more likely a "least-worst" one. Most options are high risk, most will carry negative consequences, and many will be immutable and irreversible once committed to. This paper analyzes data collected from critical decision method interviews with members of the United States Armed Forces to explore the psychological processes of making (or not making) least-worst decisions in high-consequence situations. Specifically, and based on thematic analysis of interviews with those who have made least-worst decisions while serving as part of the Armed Forces, we identify a host of exogenous (external to the incident such as resources, political agendas) and endogenous factors (features of the incident itself-size, scale, duration) that affect the decision-making process. These factors have, to date, not been factored into theoretical models of how high-stakes decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty.