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High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 virus was detected in coastal seabirds in late 2017 in South Africa, following a devastating epidemic in the commercial poultry and ostrich industries. By May 2018, the infection had been confirmed in fifteen seabird species at 31 sites along the southern coast, with the highest mortality recorded in terns (Family Laridae, Order Charadriiformes). Over 7,500 positive or suspected cases in seabirds were reported. Among those infected were three endangered species: African penguins (Spheniscus demersus Linnaeus, 1758), Cape cormorants (Phalacrocorax capensis Wahlberg, 1855), and Cape gannets (Morus capensis Lichtenstein, 1823). The scale and impact of this outbreak were unprecedented in southern African coastal seabirds and raised logistical challenges in resource allocation, risk mitigation, and outbreak response. It required the collaboration of multiple stakeholder groups, including a variety of government departments and nongovernmental organizations. With another HPAI outbreak in South African seabirds in 2021 and major incursions in seabird species in the northern hemisphere in 2022, it is vital to share and consolidate knowledge on the subject. We describe the epidemic, the lessons learned, and recommendations for developing contingency plans.

The breeding range of the Cape Gannet Morus capensis currently extends to six of the ten islands formerly utilised by this species. The Cape Gannet is classified as an endangered species with a rapidly declining population. Since the mid-1950s, the global population has declined by 51% due to multiple causes, including egg predation by the Kelp Gull Larus dominicanus vetula. To assess the effect of this predation, we monitored 100 nests over an 11-week period in 2018 at the Lambert’s Bay colony in South Africa. To assess the effect of selective predator removal on the likelihood of predation, data were collected from 2006 and 2018. Our objective was to assess whether nest location and predator removal affected the likelihood of egg predation. The peripheral nests saw a higher level of egg loss (average 1.5 eggs per week) compared with the central nests (average 1 egg per week). Predator control of Kelp Gulls was implemented in 2015, 2017 and 2018. Between years, selective culling decreased the number of Cape Gannet eggs predated. However, within years, except for 2015, the predation rate on Cape Gannet eggs increased post-culling during the same year of implementation. In all three of the implementation years, predation started again (within 48 hours) after the culling commenced. Predation by this indigenous gull species is natural; however, certain human activities might have supported larger populations of Kelp Gulls leading to elevated predation intensity. The most notable being the ever-increasing existence of dumpsites and other sources of food. Predation is affecting the Cape Gannet breeding population; therefore, we suggest that an alternative, long-term, and sustainable solution be planned and implemented to reduce the effects thereof.

In long-lived species, reproductive skipping is a common strategy whereby sexually mature animals skip a breeding season, potentially reducing population growth. This may be an adaptive decision to protect survival, or a non-adaptive decision driven by individual-specific constraints. Understanding the presence and drivers of reproductive skipping behavior can be important for effective population management, yet in many species such as the endangered African penguin (

The African Penguin Spheniscus demersus is an endangered seabird endemic to southern Africa, and killing sprees by terrestrial predators have been one of the main threats for its mainland colonies. The methods employed to manage predators may differ depending on the species involved, therefore the implementation of strategies to limit the impacts of predation relies on the correct identification of the culprit predator. We report and quantify the lesions seen in African Penguins killed by four species of terrestrial predators: Caracal Caracal caracal (52 kills), Leopard Panthera pardus (27 kills), Domestic Dog Canis lupus familiaris (10 kills), and Cape Grey Mongoose Galerella pulverulenta (4 kills). We discuss patterns of necropsy findings that can be used to identify the predator species involved. Traditional forensic methods are useful tools to direct species-specific management actions for the conservation of the African Penguin and other seabirds so that effective mitigating measures can be deployed quickly to prevent further losses. It should be borne in mind, however, that the age, size and previous hunting experience of the predator are likely to influence the pattern of lesions that will be observed, and not all carcasses will have hallmark lesions or recognisable bite marks.Identification des prédateurs terrestres de Penguins d’Afrique Spheniscus demersus par examen post mortem Le Manchot Africain Spheniscus demersus est un oiseau de mer en voie de disparition endémique de l’Afrique australe, et les tueries perpétrées par les prédateurs terrestres ont été l’une des principales menaces pour ses colonies continentales. Les méthodes utilisées pour gérer les prédateurs peuvent varier en fonction des espèces impliquées. La mise en œuvre de stratégies visant à limiter les effets de la prédation repose de ce fait sur l’identification correcte du prédateur coupable. Nous rapportons et quantifions les lésions observées chez des Manchot Africains tués par quatre espèces de prédateurs terrestres: Caracal Caracal caracal (52 attaques), Léopard Panthera pardus (27 attaques), Chien Domestique Canis lupus familiaris (10 attaques), et Mangouste Gris Galerella pulverulenta (4 attaques). Nous discutons des modèles de résultats de nécropsie qui peuvent être utilisés pour identifier les espèces prédatrices impliquées. Les méthodes médico-légales traditionnelles sont des outils utiles pour orienter les actions de gestion spécifiques à une espèce pour la conservation du Manchot Africain et d’autres oiseaux de mer, de sorte que des mesures d’atténuation efficaces puissent être déployées rapidement pour éviter de nouvelles pertes. Il convient toutefois de garder à l’esprit que l’âge, la taille et l’expérience de la chasse du prédateur auront probablement une influence sur le type de lésions observées, et toutes les carcasses ne porteront pas de lésions caractéristiques ni de marques de morsure reconnaissables. Keywords: carcasses, carnivores, necropsy, predation, South Africa, Spheniscidae, terrestrial predators, wildlife conflict

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state‐space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (−4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: −7.8 to −0.6%) than the Namibian one (−0.3%, HPDI: −3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost −10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40‐year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention., Understanding changes in abundance over space and time is crucial for conservation. We use 40 years of count data and Bayesian state‐space models to deconstruct the decline of the African penguin population (almost 65% since 1989) in time and space. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines and highlight areas in need of urgent conservation attention, such as the South African colonies north of Cape Town that have declined at nearly 10% per annum since 1999.

International audience; Penguins face a wide range of threats. Most observed population changes havebeen negative and have happened over the last 60 years. Today, populations of 11penguin species are decreasing. Here we present a review that synthesizes detailsof threats faced by the world’s 18 species of penguins. We discuss alterations totheir environment at both breeding sites on land and at sea where they forage. Themajor drivers of change appear to be climate, and food web alterations by marinefisheries. In addition, we also consider other critical and/or emerging threats, namelyhuman disturbance near nesting sites, pollution due to oil, plastics and chemicals suchas mercury and persistent organic compounds. Finally, we assess the importance ofemerging pathogens and diseases on the health of penguins. We suggest that in the context of climate change, habitat degradation, introduced exotic species andresource competition with fisheries, successful conservation outcomes will require newand unprecedented levels of science and advocacy. Successful conservation storiesof penguin species across their geographical range have occurred where there hasbeen concerted effort across local, national and international boundaries to implementeffective conservation planning.

African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) in South Africa have been subject to rapid decline in the 20th century and are currently listed as “endangered” on the IUCN Red List. A stochastic, stage-specific system dynamics model with spatial components was developed to investigate the interaction of multiple pressures on penguin population development, and originally applied to study conservation management options for the penguin colony at Robben Island, Table Bay, South Africa. We here present an extension of the model to the nearby colony at Dyer Island. The modelled population was found to be strongly dominated by the effects of Cape fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus) predation and immature emigration, which appear to be key drivers behind current declines in population numbers at this colony. Chronic low-level oiling also had a consistent impact despite ongoing mitigation measures, while kelp gull predation had a lower effect than expected. At current low population size, the pressure from either seal predation or immature emigration seems sufficient to mask any beneficial effects to penguins from possible improvements in available food biomass (e.g., from fishery restrictions). Results suggest that conservation management at this colony should focus on regular culling of predating seals combined with improving availability of prey (thus discouraging emigration) both in the foraging range of breeding penguins and in their general foraging area. Our findings demonstrate the use of site-specific scenario tools to explore conservation strategies in data-poor management situations.

South Africa's population of Kelp Gulls (Larus dominicanus vetula) numbered about 10,000 pairs during 1976/1977–1980/1981, increased to 21,000 pairs from 2000/2001–2004/2005 and then decreased to 17,500 pairs from 2009/2010–2013/2014. The increase in the late 20th century and the decrease in the early 21st century were mainly attributable to large increases and decreases in numbers breeding at islands off the west coast of South Africa. The increases followed cessation of controls on Kelp Gulls at the islands in the 1970s and were associated with supplementary food provided by fisheries and landfill sites, whereas the decreases were influenced by substantial predation of chicks by Great White Pelicans (Pelecanus onocrotalus). The decreases of Kelp Gulls at islands off the west coast of South Africa in the early 21st century were offset to some extent by an increase in numbers breeding on mainland sites, especially around greater Cape Town and along the south coast. The proportion of Kelp Gulls b...

The body condition of altricial seabird chicks is directly related to the amount of food received from their parents, which depends on feeding conditions at sea. An index of body condition is therefore a useful tool for assessing variation in food availability between different breeding colonies. Quantile regression techniques were used to develop a body condition index for African penguin Spheniscus demersus chicks, based on maximum and minimum growth relative to structural size. This is considered the most appropriate index for comparing the body condition of groups of chicks, varying in size and of unknown age, between breeding colonies. Based on this study, recommendations are made with regard to morphometric measurements, sample size and the sampling interval required to compare effectively the condition of African penguin chicks between breeding colonies throughout their distributional range.

At Dyer Island, South Africa, observations of predation of seabirds by Cape Fur Seals Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus were made during 2004 and 2006/07. It was estimated that seals killed about 7% of adult African Penguins Spheniscus demersus annually. This may have contributed to the penguin colony not increasing in spite of food becoming more available in its vicinity during an eastward shift of epipelagic fish resources off South Africa at the start of the twentyfirst century. Adult penguins were most susceptible to mortality in the breeding season as they returned to feed chicks in the evening. Seals also killed substantial numbers (3–9%) of Cape Cormorant Phalacrocorax capensis fledglings as they left the island, mostly in the morning. The losses of Cape Cormorant fledglings accounted for about 95% of the overall mortality of seabirds attributable to seals. Mortality inflicted by seals on adults of four species of cormorant was negligible and no predation by seals on gulls and terns was observed.Keywords: African Penguin, Cape Cormorant, Cape fur seal, Crowned Cormorant, predation mortality, White-breasted CormorantOSTRICH 2013, 84(3): 191–198

During 2008–2012, the number of crowned cormorants Phalacrocorax coronatus breeding in South Africa was c. 1 900 pairs, compared to 1 700 pairs for 1977–1981. Numbers at 10 islands in the Western Cape province fluctuated around a level of 1 100 pairs from 1991/1992 to 2011/2012, 300 more than from 1978/1979 to 1990/1991. These increases are attributable to the discovery of more colonies and an increased frequency of counting at the 10 islands after 1990/1991. The overall number of crowned cormorants breeding in South Africa is thought stable in the long term. Crowned cormorants feed mainly on small, inshore fish species that are not harvested by humans. Clinidae dominated the diet at 10 colonies adjoining the open sea, whereas Gobiidae contributed most food of birds at three colonies in a lagoon. The stability of the crowned cormorant population contrasts with decreases of some other seabirds endemic to southern Africa that feed primarily on prey that is exploited by fisheries. The crowned cormorant population decreased in the Northern Cape and small numbers initiated breeding at colonies to the east of Cape Agulhas at the turn of the century, but most of the population continues to breed to the west of Cape Agulhas. In some instances the availability of suitable breeding habitat may limit numbers breeding.Keywords: breeding habitat, Clinidae, Gobiidae, Phalacrocorax coronatus, population trendAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2012, 34(3): 411–424

The number of African penguins Spheniscus demersus breeding in South Africa collapsed from about 56 000 pairs in 2001 to some 21 000 pairs in 2009, a loss of 35 000 pairs (>60%) in eight years. This reduced the global population to 26 000 pairs, when including Namibian breeders, and led to classification of the species as Endangered. In South Africa, penguins breed in two regions, the Western Cape and Algoa Bay (Eastern Cape), their breeding localities in these regions being separated by c. 600 km. Their main food is anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and sardine Sardinops sagax, which are also the target of purse-seine fisheries. In Algoa Bay, numbers of African penguins halved from 21 000 pairs in 2001 to 10 000 pairs in 2003. In the Western Cape, numbers decreased from a mean of 35 000 pairs in 2001–2005 to 11 000 pairs in 2009. At Dassen Island, the annual survival rate of adult penguins decreased from 0.70 in 2002/2003 to 0.46 in 2006/2007; at Robben Island it decreased from 0.77 to 0.55 in the same peri...

In 2002 there was a widespread epizootic involving seabirds on five of the offshore islands of the Western Cape, South Africa. Since then, avian cholera Pasteurella multocida outbreaks have been occurring annually on one of these islands, Dyer Island. This paper reports on the three subsequent summers, 2003/04, 2004/05 and 2005/06, during which further avian cholera outbreaks were recorded. It focuses on the outbreak in 2004/05, which was the largest in extent and the most closely monitored. The mortalities during 2005/06 were not as extensive as expected. The management measures used to bring these outbreaks under control are described. Removal of all the carcasses from the entire island in one day is important in reducing mortality. Management intervention is required to reduce the negative impacts of disturbance due to kelp gull Lasus dominicanus predation on other breeding seabirds, primarily the African penguin Spheniscus demersus, during the carcass collection process.

The African penguin Spheniscus demersus has an 'Endangered' conservation status and a decreasing population. Following abandonment, 841 African penguin chicks in 2006 and 481 in 2007 were admitted to SANCCOB (Southern African Foundation for the Conservation of Coastal Birds) for hand-rearing from colonies in the Western Cape, South Africa, after large numbers of breeding adults commenced moult with chicks still in the nest. Of those admitted, 91% and 73% respectively were released into the wild. There were veterinary concerns about avian malaria, airsacculitis and pneumonia, feather-loss and pododermatitis (bumblefoot). Post-release juvenile (0.32, s.e. = 0.08) and adult (0.76, s.e. = 0.10) survival rates were similar to African penguin chicks reared after oil spills and to recent survival rates recorded for naturally-reared birds. By December 2012, 12 birds had bred, six at their colony of origin, and the apparent recruitment rate was 0.11 (s.e. = 0.03). Hand-rearing of abandoned penguin chicks is recommended as a conservation tool to limit mortality and to bolster the population at specific colonies. The feasibility of conservation translocations for the creation of new colonies for this species using hand-reared chicks warrants investigation. Any such programme would be predicated on adequate disease surveillance programmes established to minimise the risk of disease introduction to wild birds.