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To demonstrate improvements in the precision of inverse probability-weighted estimators by use of auxiliary variables, i.e., determinants of the outcome that are independent of treatment, missingness or selection.First with simulated data, and then with public data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we estimated the mean of a continuous outcome using inverse probability weights to account for informative missingness. We assessed gains in precision resulting from the inclusion of auxiliary variables in the model for the weights. We compared the performance of robust and nonparametric bootstrap variance estimators in this setting.We found that the inclusion of auxiliary variables reduced the empirical variance of inverse probability-weighted estimators. However, that reduction was not captured in standard errors computed using the robust variance estimator, which is widely used in weighted analyses due to the non-independence of weighted observations. In contrast, a nonparametric bootstrap estimator properly captured the precision gain.Epidemiologists can leverage auxiliary data to improve the precision of weighted estimators by using bootstrap variance estimation, or a closed-form variance estimator that properly accounts for the estimation of the weights, in place of the standard robust variance estimator.

Objectives. To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on overall, race/ethnicity‒specific, and age-specific mortality in 2020 in the United States. Methods. Using surveillance data, we modeled expected mortality, compared it to observed mortality, and estimated the share of “excess” mortality that was indirectly attributable to the pandemic versus directly attributed to COVID-19. We present absolute risks and proportions of total pandemic-related mortality, stratified by race/ethnicity and age. Results. We observed 16.6 excess deaths per 10 000 US population in 2020; 84% were directly attributed to COVID-19. The indirect effects of the pandemic accounted for 16% of excess mortality, with proportions as low as 0% among adults aged 85 years and older and more than 60% among those aged 15 to 44 years. Indirect causes accounted for a higher proportion of excess mortality among racially minoritized groups (e.g., 32% among Black Americans and 23% among Native Americans) compared with White Americans (11%). Conclusions. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and health disparities are underestimated when only deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 are considered. An equitable public health response to the pandemic should also consider its indirect effects on mortality. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):154–164. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306541 )

ImportanceIntegrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)–containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes.ObjectivesTo estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsRetrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.ExposuresCombined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records.Main Outcomes and MeasuresProbability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens.ResultsOf 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, −1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, −1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, −5% [95% CI, −7% to −4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, −5% [95% CI, −7% to −3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, −6% [95% CI, −8% to −4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, −1% [95% CI, −4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV.Conclusions and RelevanceAmong adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

Grandparenting activities are of increasing interest to researchers seeking to understand reduced social engagement and depression among aging adults. Heterogeneity in the population and caretaking...

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to define a smoking cessation ‘cascade’ among USA women with and without HIV and examine differences by sociodemographic characteristics. DESIGN: An observational cohort study using data from smokers participating in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study between 2014 and 2019. METHODS: We followed 1165 women smokers with and without HIV from their first study visit in 2014 or 2015 until an attempt to quit smoking within approximately 3 years of follow-up, initial cessation (i.e. no restarting smoking within approximately 6 months of a quit attempt), and sustained cessation (i.e. no restarting smoking within approximately 12 months of a quit attempt). Using the Aalen-Johansen estimator, we estimated the cumulative probability of achieving each step, accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of smokers attempted to quit, 27% achieved initial cessation, and 14% achieved sustained cessation with no differences by HIV status. Women with some post-high school education were more likely to achieve each step than those with less education. Outcomes did not differ by race. Thirty-six percent [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 31–42] of uninsured women attempted to quit compared with 47% (95% CI: 44–50) with Medicaid and 49% (95% CI: 41–59) with private insurance. CONCLUSION: To decrease smoking among USA women with and without HIV, targeted, multistage interventions, and increased insurance coverage are needed to address shortfalls along this cascade.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is disproportionately burdening racial and ethnic minority groups in the United States. Higher risks of infection and mortality among racialized minorities are a consequence of structural racism, reflected in specific policies that date back centuries and persist today. Yet our surveillance activities do not reflect what we know about how racism structures risk. When measuring racial and ethnic disparities in deaths due to COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention statistically accounts for the geographic distribution of deaths throughout the United States to reflect the fact that deaths are concentrated in areas with different racial and ethnic distributions from those of the larger United States. In this commentary, we argue that such an approach misses an important driver of disparities in COVID-19 mortality, namely the historical forces that determine where individuals live, work, and play, and that consequently determine their risk of dying from COVID-19. We explain why controlling for geography downplays the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on racialized minority groups in the United States. Finally, we offer recommendations for the analysis of surveillance data to estimate racial disparities, including shifting from distribution-based to risk-based measures, to help inform a more effective and equitable public health response to the pandemic.

Generativity refers to the desire to pass on one's skills, knowledge, and wisdom to future generations; this may be a clear indicator of the likelihood of older adults investing time and effort in engagement with their grandchildren. This cross-sectional study examines the relationship between generative beliefs and an index of multiple potential grandparenting activities. The data come from a convenience sample of 79 grandparents (aged 55+) living in Sri Lanka, a society experiencing rapid growth in its population of older adults. Regression analyses demonstrate that more endorsement of generative beliefs among older adults is associated with increased engagement in various grandparenting activities, with the strongest associations with reading, singing songs, and helping grandchildren with schoolwork or teaching them. Our findings suggest that generativity may be important for understanding the relationship between grandparenting and improved well-being for older adults.

Objectives To inform future policies and disaster preparedness plans in the vulnerable nursing home setting, we need greater insight into the relationship between nursing homes’ (NHs’) quality and the spread and severity of COVID-19 in NH facilities. We therefore extend current evidence on the relationships between NH quality and resident COVID-19 infection rates and deaths, taking into account NH structural characteristics and community characteristics. Design Cross-sectional study. Setting and Participants 15,390 Medicaid- and Medicare-certified NHs. Methods We obtained and merged the following data sets: (1) COVID-19 weekly data reported by each nursing home to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Healthcare Safety Network, (2) Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Five Star Quality Rating System, (3) county-level COVID-19 case counts, (4) county-level population data, and (5) county-level sociodemographic data. Results Among 1-star NHs, there were an average of 13.19 cases and 2.42 deaths per 1000 residents per week between May 25 and December 20, 2020. Among 5-star NHs, there were an average of 9.99 cases and 1.83 deaths per 1000 residents per week. The rate of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 31% higher among 1-star NHs compared with 5-star NHs [model 1: incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-1.39], and the rate of COVID-19 deaths was 30% higher (IRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.20, 1.41). These associations were only partially explained by differences in community spread of COVID-19, case mix, and the for-profit status and size of NHs. Conclusions and Implications We found that COVID-19 case and death rates were substantially higher among NHs with lower star ratings, suggesting that NHs with quality much below average are more susceptible to the spread of COVID-19. This relationship, particularly with regard to case rates, can be partially attributed to external factors: lower-rated NHs are often located in areas with greater COVID-19 community spread and serve more socioeconomically vulnerable residents than higher-rated NHs.

[...]if health equity is not at the core of our surveillance activities, inequities will inevitably arise, persist, and widen over time. [...]our current surveillance activities have focused almost exclusively on the direct effects of the pandemic on population health, measured in terms of SARS-CoV-2 infections or deaths that can be directly attributed to COVID-19. ACKNOWLEDGING SOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT The methodological choices we make when analyzing data can profoundly affect the conclusions we draw about the existence, direction, and magnitude of health inequities. [...]choices are not purely objective and value-free;rather, they reflect one's view of the world and judgments about what sources of variation in health status are permissible. [...]statistical adjustment for covariates such as age and geography when comparing disease risk across racial/ethnic groups reflects the belief that different distributions of age or geography are not important components of racial disparities in disease risk.7 By contrast, an analytic approach that seeks to understand how racial health inequities are produced might stratify on age and place to assess the roles of age and geography-population characteristics that are themselves shaped by structural racism-in determiningthe distribution of disease across population groups. Because the analysis and interpretation of surveillance data have real consequences for the subsequent implementation of public health interventions, it is critical that analyses be grounded in an antiracist approach that acknowledges the role of social and historical forces in shaping the distribution of disease.

Objective: We aimed to investigate the longitudinal effects of spousal support on aging Hispanic Americans’ depressive symptoms using population-based data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Method: Using hierarchical multiple regressions, we investigated whether baseline positive spousal support and previous depressive symptoms were significant predictors of depressive symptoms 8 years later in a sample of 264 aging Hispanic Americans. Results: We discovered that previous depressive symptoms, baseline chronic conditions, and positive spousal support were all significant predictors of long-term depressive symptoms. Discussion: Our findings underline the need to address persistent depression and chronic diseases in the aging Hispanic population. We also highlight the potential benefits of empowering spouses as a resource for promoting mental health in this group. These findings are also encouraging for future studies in depression, aging, and comorbidity, especially in the vastly increasing population of aging Hispanic Americans.

Background Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) are a common pathway to adult depression. This pathway is particularly important during the perinatal period when women are at an elevated risk for depression. However, this relationship has not been explored in South Asia. This study estimates the association between ACEs and women’s (N = 889) depression at 36 months postpartum in rural Pakistan. Method Data come from the Bachpan Cohort study. To capture ACEs, an adapted version of the ACE-International Questionnaire was used. Women’s depression was measured using both major depressive episodes (MDE) and depressive symptom severity. To assess the relationship between ACEs and depression, log-Poisson models were used for MDE and linear regression models for symptom severity. Results The majority (58%) of women experienced at least one ACE domain, most commonly home violence (38.3%), followed by neglect (20.1%). Women experiencing four or more ACEs had the most pronounced elevation of symptom severity (β = 3.90; 95% CL = 2.13, 5.67) and MDE (PR = 2.43; 95% CL = 1.37, 4.32). Symptom severity (β = 2.88; 95% CL = 1.46, 4.31), and MDE (PR = 2.01; 95% CL = 1.27, 3.18) were greater for those experiencing community violence or family distress (β = 2.04; 95%; CL = 0.83, 3.25) (PR = 1.77; 95% CL = 1.12, 2.79). Conclusions Findings suggest that ACEs are substantively distinct and have unique relationships to depression. They signal a need to address women’s ACEs as part of perinatal mental health interventions and highlight women’s lifelong experiences as important factors to understanding current mental health. Trial registration NCT02111915. Registered 11 April 2014. NCT02658994. Registered 22 January 2016. Both trials were prospectively registered.

Introduction Pregnant women living with HIV can achieve viral suppression and prevent HIV mother‐to‐child transmission (MTCT) with timely HIV testing and early ART initiation and maintenance. Although it is recommended that pregnant women undergo HIV testing early in antenatal care in Malawi, many women test positive during breastfeeding because they did not have their HIV status ascertained during pregnancy, or they tested negative during pregnancy but seroconverted postpartum. We sought to estimate the association between the timing of last positive HIV test (during pregnancy vs. breastfeeding) and outcomes of maternal viral suppression and MTCT in Malawi’s PMTCT programme. Methods We conducted a two‐stage cohort study among mother–infant pairs in 30 randomly selected high‐volume health facilities across five nationally representative districts of Malawi between 1 July 2016 and 30 June 2017. Log‐binomial regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and risk ratios (RR) for associations between timing of last positive HIV test (i.e. breastfeeding vs. pregnancy) and maternal viral suppression and MTCT, controlling for confounding using inverse probability weighting. Results Of 822 mother–infant pairs who had available information on the timing of the last positive HIV test, 102 mothers (12.4%) had their last positive test during breastfeeding. Women who lived one to two hours (PR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.29 to 3.58) or >2 hours (PR = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.37 to 4.10) travel time to the nearest health facility were more likely to have had their last positive HIV test during breastfeeding compared to women living

Background In sub-Saharan Africa, 3 community-facility linkage (CFL) models—Expert Clients, Community Health Workers (CHWs), and Mentor Mothers—have been widely implemented to support pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBFW) living with HIV and their infants to access and sustain care for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT), yet their comparative impact under real-world conditions is poorly understood. Methods and findings We sought to estimate the effects of CFL models on a primary outcome of maternal loss to follow-up (LTFU), and secondary outcomes of maternal longitudinal viral suppression and infant “poor outcome” (encompassing documented HIV-positive test result, LTFU, or death), in Malawi’s PMTCT/ART program. We sampled 30 of 42 high-volume health facilities (“sites”) in 5 Malawi districts for study inclusion. At each site, we reviewed medical records for all newly HIV-diagnosed PBFW entering the PMTCT program between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017, and, for pregnancies resulting in live births, their HIV-exposed infants, yielding 2,589 potentially eligible mother–infant pairs. Of these, 2,049 (79.1%) had an available HIV treatment record and formed the study cohort. A randomly selected subset of 817 (40.0%) cohort members underwent a field survey, consisting of a questionnaire and HIV biomarker assessment. Survey responses and biomarker results were used to impute CFL model exposure, maternal viral load, and early infant diagnosis (EID) outcomes for those missing these measures to enrich data in the larger cohort. We applied sampling weights in all statistical analyses to account for the differing proportions of facilities sampled by district. Of the 2,049 mother–infant pairs analyzed, 62.2% enrolled in PMTCT at a primary health center, at which time 43.7% of PBFW were ≤24 years old, and 778 (38.0%) received the Expert Client model, 640 (31.2%) the CHW model, 345 (16.8%) the Mentor Mother model, 192 (9.4%) ≥2 models, and 94 (4.6%) no model. Maternal LTFU varied by model, with LTFU being more likely among Mentor Mother model recipients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14, 1.84; p = 0.003) than Expert Client recipients. Over 2 years from HIV diagnosis, PBFW supported by CHWs spent 14.3% (95% CI: 2.6%, 26.1%; p = 0.02) more days in an optimal state of antiretroviral therapy (ART) retention with viral suppression than women supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the Mentor Mother model (aHR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.52; p = 0.04) and ≥2 models (aHR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.20, 1.74; p < 0.001) were more likely to undergo EID testing by age 6 months than infants supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the CHW and Mentor Mother models were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.67; p = 0.44) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.50, 1.42; p = 0.51) times as likely, respectively, to experience a poor outcome by 1 year than those supported by Expert Clients, but not significantly so. Study limitations include possible residual confounding, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions about the impacts of CFL models, uncertain generalizability of findings to other settings, and missing infant medical record data that limited the precision of infant outcome measurement. Conclusions In this descriptive study, we observed widespread reach of CFL models in Malawi, with favorable maternal outcomes in the CHW model and greater infant EID testing uptake in the Mentor Mother model. Our findings point to important differences in maternal and infant HIV outcomes by CFL model along the PMTCT continuum and suggest future opportunities to identify key features of CFL models driving these outcome differences., Michael Herce and co-workers study potential improvements in linkage to care for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV in Malawi., Author summary Why was this study done? Attrition from the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) continuum threatens health gains for pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBFW) living with HIV and their infants. To improve PMTCT services in Africa, 3 community-facility linkage (CFL) models—Mentor Mothers, Community Health Workers (CHWs), and Expert Clients/Patients—have been widely implemented. Available evidence suggests that these CFL models may improve the health of PBFW living with HIV and their infants. Despite the promise of CFL models, however, no studies from the current “treat all” era have attempted to examine which of these models works best in “real world” PMTCT programs for ensuring maternal HIV care retention and viral suppression and infant HIV-free survival. What did the researchers do and find? We conducted a descriptive study in Malawi by sampling busy health facilities in 5 districts and, at selected facilities, reviewing medical records for all newly HIV-diagnosed PBFW and their HIV-exposed infants. We then administered a survey to a randomly selected subset of these mother–infant pairs to assess CFL model exposure and HIV outcomes. We found that compared to women supported by the most common CFL model, Expert Clients, women supported by CHWs were 13% more likely to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) soon after their HIV diagnosis. Over the 2 years following HIV diagnosis, PBFW living with HIV who received CHW model support spent 14% more time retained on ART and virally suppressed than women in the Expert Client model. Infants receiving Mentor Mother model support were 24% more likely to receive HIV testing by age 6 months than infants supported by Expert Clients. The 12-month infant risk of experiencing a positive HIV test result, loss to follow-up, or death did not vary significantly by CFL model. What do these findings mean? CFL models had widespread coverage in the national PMTCT/ART program in our selected sites in Malawi, reaching most mother–infant pairs. Important differences were noted in maternal and infant HIV outcomes by CFL model. Favorable HIV outcomes were seen in women supported by the CHW model, and higher infant EID testing uptake was observed in infants supported by Mentor Mothers. Although caution should be exercised when applying our findings to other settings, we found that CFL models may have different impacts on maternal and infant HIV outcomes at different steps along the PMTCT continuum in Malawi. Future research should identify the key features of CFL models that drive these outcome differences to better inform PMTCT programming in Malawi.

Introduction Despite the higher risk of HIV among female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW), these populations are under‐represented in the literature on HIV in Haiti. Here, we present the first nationally representative estimates of HIV prevalence and the first care and treatment cascade for FSWs, MSM and TGW in Haiti. We also examine the social determinants of HIV prevalence in these groups and estimate FSW and MSM population size in Haiti. Methods Data were collected between April 2016 and February 2017 throughout the 10 geographical departments of Haiti. The Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) method was used to: (1) recruit participants for a behavioural survey; (2) provide rapid testing, counselling and linkage to care for syphilis and HIV; and (3) measure viral load using dried blood spots for participants testing HIV positive. Results Study participants included 990 FSWs, 520 MSM and 109 TGW. HIV prevalence was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI 6.2%, 9.6%) among FSWs, 2.2% (0.9%, 5.3%) among MSM and 27.6% (5.0%, 73.5%) among TGW. Of participants who tested positive for syphilis, 17% of FSWs, 19% of MSM and 74% of TGW were co‐infected with HIV. Economic instability and intimate partner violence (IPV) were significantly associated with HIV among MSM; food insecurity, economic instability and history of rape were significantly associated with HIV among TGW. Fewer than one‐third of participants living with HIV knew their status, and more than a quarter of those who knew their status were not on treatment. While approximately four in five FSW and MSM participants on treatment for HIV were virally suppressed, viral suppression was less common among TGW participants at only 46%. Conclusions This study demonstrates a need for targeted interventions to prevent and treat HIV among key populations in Haiti. Potential high‐impact interventions may include venue‐based, peer navigator‐led outreach and testing for HIV and syphilis and improving screening and case management for structural violence and IPV. TGW are in urgent need of such interventions due to our observations of alarmingly high HIV prevalence and low frequency of HIV viral suppression among TGW.