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: This study examines the potential impacts of changes in federal timber harvest, acting through regional log markets, on the sequestration of carbon in forests and forest products in western Oregon. We construct a dynamic model of the region's log markets in which market prices, log consumption at mills, and timber harvests and timber inventories on private, federal, and state forests are endogenous. Absent any policies regulating forest carbon sequestration, simulations show that regional carbon flux in forests and forest products would gradually decline as federal harvest rises from recent historical levels. If regional forest carbon flux were constrained to meet some minimum target, however, projections indicate that there would be opportunities for substituting carbon sequestration between federal and nonfederal lands through coordination of harvests across ownerships. We find that relatively small reductions in average private harvest could offset substantial losses of carbon flux on federal timberlands caused by increased federal harvest. One mechanism for achieving the changes needed in private harvest to meet a regional carbon flux target would be a carbon tax/subsidy program or a carbon offset market. For example, if federal owners offered timber for sale equal to the maximum sustainable level under the Northwest Forest Plan, our analysis indicates that a carbon price of roughly $US 19 per tonne of carbon would be sufficient to induce private owners to undertake the harvest and management modifications necessary to maintain regional forest carbon flux at its level in the early 2000s. Resume: Cette etude s'interesse a l'impact que des changements dans la recolte de bois sur les terres federales, dont la repercussion se fait sentir sur les marches regionaux de grumes, peuvent avoir sur la sequestration du carbone dans les fore ts et les produits forestiers dans l'ouest de l'Oregon. Nous avons construit un modele dynamique des marches de grumes de la region dans lequel les prix du marche, la consommation de grumes dans les usines ainsi que les volumes de bois et les inventaires de bois dans les forets privees, les forets federales et les forets d'E tat sont endogenes. En l'absence de politiques regissant la sequestration du carbone forestier, les simulations montrent que le flux regional de carbone dans les fore ts et les produits forestiers diminuerait graduellement a mesure que la recolte sur les terres federales augmente par rapport au niveau des dernieres annees. Cependant, si l'on exigeait que le flux regional de carbone forestier atteigne un niveau quelconque minimum, les previsions indiquent que la sequestration du carbone pourrait faire l'objet de substitutions entre les terres federales et non federales en coordonnant la recolte parmi les proprietaires. Nous constatons que des reductions relativement faibles de la recolte provenant du secteur prive pourraient compenser les pertes substantielles de flux de carbone dues a l'augmentation de la recolte sur les terres federales. Un programme de taxe ou subvention carbone ou un marche d'echange du carbone serait un mecanisme qui permettrait de realiser les changements necessaires dans la recolte du secteur prive pour atteindre un niveau souhaite de flux regional de carbone. Par exemple, si les proprietaires federaux mettaient en vente un volume de bois egal au rendement soutenu maximum selon le ≪ Northwest Forest Plan ≫, notre analyse indique qu'un prix du carbone d'environ 19 $US la tonne serait suffisant pour inciter les proprietaires prives a entreprendre les modifications en termes d'amenagement et de recolte necessaires pour maintenir le flux regional de carbone a son niveau du debut des annees 2000. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) (also called the 'President's Plan') was established in the mid-1990s at the request of President Clinton to meet the need for late-successional forest habitat [...]

The aviation sector's commitments to carbon‐neutral growth in international aviation starting in 2020, and the desire to improve supply surety, price stability, and the environmental performance of aviation fuels, have led to broad interest in sustainable alternative jet fuels. Here, we use the system‐dynamics‐based biomass scenario model (BSM), focused on alternative jet fuel production capacity evolution, and the geospatially explicit Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT), focused on optimal feedstock and fuel flows over the transportation system, to explore the incentive effects on alternative jet fuel production capacity trajectories and potential geospatial patterns of production and delivery in the USA. Scenarios presented here focus on readily available waste feedstocks (waste fats, oils and greases, municipal solid waste, and crop and forestry residues) and conversion technologies included in the ASTM D7566 synthesized aviation turbine fuels specification. The BSM modeling of possible deployment trajectories from 2015 to 2045 suggests that up to 8 billion gallons may be available by 2045 depending on the policies and incentives implemented. Both approaches suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible in 2030 given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate, and that capital costs and technology maturation rates will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies, and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The aviation sector's commitments to carbon‐neutral growth in international aviation starting in 2020, and the desire to improve supply surety, price stability, and the environmental performance of aviation fuels, have led to broad interest in sustainable alternative jet fuels. Here, we use the system‐dynamics‐based biomass scenario model (BSM), focused on alternative jet fuel production capacity evolution, and the geospatially explicit Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT), focused on optimal feedstock and fuel flows over the transportation system, to explore the incentive effects on alternative jet fuel production capacity trajectories and potential geospatial patterns of production and delivery in the USA. Scenarios presented here focus on readily available waste feedstocks (waste fats, oils and greases, municipal solid waste, and crop and forestry residues) and conversion technologies included in the ASTM D7566 synthesized aviation turbine fuels specification. The BSM modeling of possible deployment trajectories from 2015 to 2045 suggests that up to 8 billion gallons may be available by 2045 depending on the policies and incentives implemented. Both approaches suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible in 2030 given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate, and that capital costs and technology maturation rates will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies, and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) has historically relied on regional average costs of land conversion to simulate land use change across cropland, pasture, rangeland, and forestry. This assumption limits the accuracy of the land conversion estimates by not recognizing spatial heterogeneity in land quality and conversion costs. Using data from Nielsen et al. (2014), we obtained the afforestation cost per county, then estimated nonparametric regional marginal cost functions for land converting to forestry. These afforestation costs were then incorporated into FASOMGHG. Three different assumptions for land moving into the forest sector (constant average conversion cost, static rising marginal costs, and dynamic rising marginal cost) were run in order to assess the implications of alternative land conversion cost assumptions on key outcomes, such as projected forest area and cropland use, carbon sequestration, and forest product output.

The United States has recently set ambitious national goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions over the coming decades. A portion of these reductions are based on expected sequestration and storage contributions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Significant uncertainty exists in future forest markets and thus the potential LULUCF contribution to US GHG reduction goals. This study seeks to inform the discussion by modeling US forest GHG accounts per different simulated demand scenarios across a grid of over 130,000 USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) forestland plots over the conterminous United States. This spatially disaggregated future supply is based on empirical yield functions for log volume, biomass and carbon. Demand data is based on a spatial database of over 2300 forest product manufacturing facilities representing 11 intermediate and 13 final solid and pulpwood products. Transportation costs are derived from fuel prices and the locations of FIA plot from which a log is harvested and mill or port destination. Trade between mills in intermediate products such as sawmill residues or planer shavings is also captured within the model formulation. The resulting partial spatial equilibrium model of the US forest sector is solved annually for the period 2015-2035 with demand shifted by energy prices and macroeconomic indicators from the US EIA's Annual Energy Outlook for a Reference, Low Economic Growth, and High Economic Growth case. For each macroeconomic scenario simulated, figures showing historic and scenario-specific live tree carnon emissions and sequestration are generated. Maps of the spatial allocation of both forest harvesting and related carbon fluxes are presented at the National level and detail is given for both regions and ownerships.