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We examine whether cohort ideals for children exhibit similar trends as those produced by cohort fertility forecasts in Denmark and Norway – two Nordic countries on diverging fertility trajectories. We use recent data from the Generation and Gender Survey to obtain measures of stated ideal family sizes and compare these stated ideals to those suggested by forecasts. In both Denmark and Norway, women express higher ideal family sizes than the number of children they can expect to have. For Denmark, the difference between stated ideal and expected number of children is stable over forecasts for more recent birth cohorts, whereas for Norway there is an increasing gap across recent birth cohorts between women’s ideal number of children and their expected cohort fertility driven by forecasted decline in cohort fertility. Norway either must see a fertility schedule for cohorts still in the childbearing age drastically different to any schedule ever recorded previously or should expect an increasing deficit in childbearing quantum relative to ideals.

By adopting a dyadic extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), this study examined whether perceived economic uncertainty afects fertility intentions. Three-hundred thirty one heterosexual couples living in Italy participated in a randomized between-group experimental study, in which we manipulated perceived economic uncertainty (low vs. high vs. control). The participants subsequently completed a questionnaire measuring their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and fertility intentions. We employed Structural Equation Modelling in estimating the Actor–Partner Interdependence Model. The model showed a good ft to the data. Women’s attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were infuenced by the high economic uncertain scenario, whereas among men these variables were afected only by the positive economic scenario. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control were signifcant predictors of fertility intentions for both sexes. Signifcant partner efects were observed as well. These fndings suggest that fertility plans should be examined by adopting a dyadic perspective, as individuals’ intentions are afected not only by their own beliefs, but also by those of their partners. Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

This study investigates fertility responses to the business cycle in the Nordic countries by comparing period variation in women’s childbearing propensity. We harmonize register data from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to compare childbearing in the aftermath of the two most recent crises that hit those economies: the 1990s and 2010s. We use event-history techniques to present parity-specific fertility, by calendar year, relative to a defined pre-recession year. We further examine any possible impact of the two recessions by women’s age and education. Results show a large heterogeneity across the five Nordic countries in the childbearing developments after 1990. This variation largely disappears after 2008 when period trends in birth hazards become more similar across countries. Likewise, the educational differences that characterized the variation in childbearing relative risk after 1990 considerably diminish in the years after 2010, especially for first and second births. Economic theories do not suffice to explain this reversal from the heterogeneity of the 1990s to the homogeneity of the 2010s in the childbearing response to recession episodes across countries and socioeconomic groups. Our findings suggest the need to expand the theoretical framework explaining the cyclicality of fertility towards the perception of economic and welfare uncertainty.

Women's health status may affect their opportunities and preferences for children through various mechanisms. We examine the relationship between health and fertility using Norwegian registry data (2004-18). Measuring verifiable and persistent health problems, we use uptake of doctor-certified sickness absence and long-term health-related benefits as proxies for health. In contrast to the expectation that poor health limits women's opportunities for children, our results show that sickness absence is positively associated with transitions to parenthood. The uptake of long-term benefits is, however, negatively associated with fertility. The selection of healthy women into parenthood weakens the association for higher-order births. The impact of long-term health indicators on fertility is comparable in magnitude to that observed for more conventional predictors, such as education and income. With continued postponement of childbearing and thus higher maternal ages, the influence of health as a fertility determinant is likely to grow and further research appears warranted.

The relationship between female education and fertility is a long-standing topic in demography, our understanding of which continues to develop. Since the turn of the century, a growing body of research has documented cross-national variation in the female educational gradient in fertility, with mostly positive gradients in Western and Northern European countries. However, such national gradients may mask important variation in the educational gradient in fertility at the subnational level. This study is among the first to use large-scale individual-level administrative data to study regional educational gradients in parity-specific fertility in Northern and Western European countries: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Adopting hazard models and model-based Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios, our results highlight considerable subnational regional variation in the educational gradient in first, second and third births. We conclude that, in addition to variation between countries, substantial within-country regional variation deserves to receive future scholarly attention. The documentation of regional variation in the female education-fertility nexus is a substantial extension of cross-national comparisons and contributes to the empirical and theoretical debate on the context-contingencies of the education-fertility nexus.

Fertility levels have historically been negatively correlated with the amount of information and material resources available to individuals and families. The recent reversal of this trend has been interpreted as a fundamental change in preferences, a return to large families led by more educated individuals. Our analysis shows, however, that the recently documented changes in fertility can be reproduced in the context of declining family size preferences across educational levels, and without assuming any transformation of the underlying behavioral mechanisms that link resources and fertility across cohorts. We demonstrate this point by replicating the stylized facts reported in previous studies using a simulated dataset. We generate this dataset from a model that assumes continuity in the way education shapes reproductive intentions over time. In our simulated population, the reversal in the relationship between education and fertility emerges as a result of the transition from a natural to a regulated fertility regime, as the share of unplanned births decreases over time, and the mechanisms that positively connect educational attainment with \textit{desired} fertility become dominant. We conclude, thus, that the explanation for the weakening educational gradient of fertility lies primarily in the decline of unintended fertility, instead of in changes in fertility preferences.

During the 2010s, fertility rates fell across the Nordic region. The onset of these declines seems linked to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, but their continuation cannot easily be linked to subsequent economic change. The 1990s, too, brought episodes of economic crises to the Nordic region that were followed by different degrees of fertility decline. In this study, we provide an empirical overview of parity-, age- and education-specific fertility developments in the five Nordic countries in the wake of the economic recessions in 2008 and the early 1990s, respectively. We demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in fertility developments across countries after 1990, whereas after 2008, the trends are much more similar across the five countries. Likewise, the educational differences in birth hazards that characterized the developments after 1990 were much smaller in the initial years after 2008-2009. This reversal from heterogeneity to homogeneity in the fertility response to recessions calls for an expansion of theories on the cyclicality of fertility in relation to uncertainty and economic and social change. In our discussion, we consider the role of a set of factors that also incorporates the state, crisis management, and perceptions of economic and welfare uncertainty.

The family life courses of immigrants and their descendants have been widely studied as indicators of societal integration. But largely absent are investigations into the role of cohabitation in the family lives of these subpopulations. Using Norwegian register data on individuals who were either native born or who immigrated before age 18, we analyse the formation of first cohabiting and marital unions. Next, we compare associations between endogamous or exogamous partner choice and transitions from these first unions. Results showed that the children of immigrants were less likely to cohabit endogamously, but overall more likely to cohabit exogamously and to marry than Norwegians without a migration background. Endogamous migrant-background cohabiting unions were least likely to dissolve, whereas cohabiting couples involving one or two majority partners were less marriage prone than endogamous migrant-background couples. Similarly, among those married, endogamous migrant-background couples were less likely to divorce than their exogamous counterparts.

Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women's completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women's fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education. ispartof: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION-REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE vol:37 issue:1 pages:263-295 ispartof: location:Netherlands status: published

"This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [Dommermuth, L, Klüsener, S. Formation and realisation of moving intentions across the adult life course. Popul Space Place. 2018;e2212. ], which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2212. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions." Residential and migratory moves are frequently regarded as instruments to attain other life goals. Thus, empirical studies increasingly link moves to other life course events. However, to fully understand moving decisions, it is also necessary to consider prior plans in various life domains, as not all life course plans and potentially related moves are realised. On the basis of representative data for Norway, these aspects are analysed for four life phases: the young adult phase, the family phase, the middle age phase, and the retirement phase. For all four life phases, highly significant associations between intentions and events in various life domains and moving intentions and actual moves are obtained. The relevance of specific domains for the formulation of moving intentions and actual moves is subject to variation across the life course and dependent on whether all moves or only moves over longer distances are considered.

Systematic comparisons of fertility developments based on education, gender and country context are rare. Using harmonized register data, we compare cohort total fertility and ultimate childlessness by gender and educational attainment for cohorts born beginning in 1940 in four Nordic countries. Cohort fertility (CTF) initially declined in all four countries, although for cohorts born in the 1950s and later, the CTF remained stable or declined only modestly. Childlessness, which had been increasing, has plateaued in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Women’s negative educational gradient in relation to total fertility has vanished, except in Finland, while men’s positive gradient has persisted. The highest level of men’s childlessness appears among the least educated. In the oldest female cohorts, childlessness was highest among the highly educated, but these patterns have changed over the cohorts as childlessness has increased among the low educated and remained relatively stable among higher educated women. In Denmark, Norway and Sweden, childlessness is now highest among the least educated women. We witness both a new gender similarity and persistent (among men) and new (among women) educational disparities in childbearing outcomes in the Nordic region. Overall, the number of low educated has decreased remarkably over time. These population segments face increasing social and economic disadvantages that are reflected as well in their patterns of family formation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-018-9492-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

As union dissolution rates increase in most modern societies, a growing number of children are living in post‐separation families. The geographical distance between parental households shapes the possibilities for contact between nonresident parents and children, but empirical studies are lacking. This study investigates the geographical distance between nonresident parents and children in Norway using a total population sample, including exact geographical coordinates for residency. Results show that most children are registered in the maternal household, indicating a strong social norm favouring motherhood after union dissolution. The majority of nonresident parents live within a 10‐km radius of their child, but the average distance is greater for nonresident fathers than for nonresident mothers. Multilevel analysis show that the distance between the parental households decreases with regional level of urbanisation. There is evidence that the distance between the two parental households is greater if the child was either relatively young or old at parents' union dissolution. Parents' income at this time is negatively correlated with distance. This underlines the long‐lasting impact of family characteristics at the time of parents' union dissolution on subsequent residential moves. Also different events after parents' union dissolution are associated with the geographical distance between nonresident parents and children. Time since the break‐up, the formation of a new coresidential union, and the birth of subsequent children are positively correlated with the distance between the two parental households. If children move from one parental household to the other, this is associated with longer distances, especially to nonresident mothers.

Young adults in Norway mostly choose cohabitation as their first co-residential union and the age of first union formation is comparatively low. However, dissolution rates are higher in Norway than in most other parts of Europe, potentially leading to unstable relationship careers in young adulthood. Using recent survey data from Norway on men and women born 1927–73 ( N = 9, 723), we analyze the prevalence and correlates of the number of co-residential unions experienced by the age of 35. We find that the number of co-residential relationships has increased across cohorts, but this development has slowed down among the youngest cohorts. The type of the first union plays a crucial role, and young adults who did not marry their first cohabiting partner have a higher likelihood of experiencing several co-residential unions than those who married directly or via cohabitation.

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUNDOver recent decades there have been major changes in the union formation process and union careers in Western industrialized countries. These changes include lower marriage rates, increases in cohabitation and non-marital childbearing (Kieman, 2004), high rates of divorce, and even higher disruption rates for non-marital unions (Lyngstad and Jalovaara, 2010). From the late 1960s and onwards such changes in family behavior have been particularly marked in Scandinavia (Surkyn and Lesthaeghe, 2004). In Norway, the Scandinavian country serving as context of the present study, 90% of first unions are cohabitations (Wiik, 2009) and more than 40% of marriages are estimated to end in divorce (Statistics Norway, 2013a). Despite increasing divorce rates and postponement of first marriage, the age at first union formation has remained remarkably stable (Dommermuth, Noack, and Wiik, 2009) and the majority of Norwegians marries eventually (Statistics Norway, 2013b).These developments may have had several implications on the partnership careers of men and women. For instance, the rising divorce and union dissolution rates imply that more men and women today have several partnerships over their life course and consequently spend more time as temporarily singles compared with earlier. And, as cohabiters on average are less committed to and satisfied with their unions than those married (Wiik, Keizer, and Lappegârd, 2012), and thus most likely have a lower threshold for not only ending but also entering their unions, the growing popularity of unmarried cohabitation could imply that more individuals have partnership experience. At the same time, there are considerable socioeconomic differentials in union formation, and existing research confirms that higher status individuals have a higher chance of forming unions compared with lower status individuals (e.g., Kalmijn, 2011; Wiik, 2009), though marriage is often found to be more strongly positively associated with socioeconomic resources than cohabitation (e.g., Kravdal, 1999; Xie, Raymo, Goyette, and Thornton, 2003).However, with a few recent exceptions (see review of literature below) less is known about the non-occurrence of union formation. In particular, we lack firm knowledge about potential developments over time as well as the correlates of remaining unpartnered, like socioeconomic resources and gender. There have, for instance, been important developments in women's education and paid labor market activity. In fact, in Norway, a higher share of women has completed a tertiary education compared with men among those bom in the cohorts after 1960 (Statistics Norway, 2013c). And, the Scandinavian states have the highest labor market activity rates among women in the industrialized world (Ellingsaeter and Leira, 2006). The country is also ranked top on gender equality indexes, like United Nation's Gender Empowerment Index (GEM). Women's increasing economic independence may have altered women's and men's partner preferences. For instance, a woman's attractiveness as a partner nowadays may to a larger degree depend upon the financial resources she contributes to the household (Sweeney, 2002). Alternatively, as women have become more financially independent, they may place less weight on men's economic value when choosing a partner (Press, 2004). If this is the case, socioeconomic resources might be less important for men's chances on the contemporary partnership market.In this paper, we use data from the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) carried out in 2007/2008 to analyze differentials in remaining without experience from a coresidential union by age 40 among heterosexual men and women aged 40 to 81 (bom 19271968) (N = 8,813). The respondents in our sample were thus reaching typical family formation ages in a period characterized by a steady increase in cohabitation and union dissolution rates. Our general hypothesis is that the likelihood of remaining unpartnered by age 40 has decreased across birth cohorts due to the increasing popularity of unmarried cohabitation {Hypothesis 1). …

Using data from administrative registers, we examine the intergenerational transmission of timing of first birth in Norway for all men and women born between 1954 and 1964. We assess the extent of any intergenerational transmission using discrete-time event history analysis, and estimate associations between the age at first birth of parents and their children. Results suggest that intergenerational transmission of age at first birth is evident in all four parent–child dyads and at all ages of the first-birth process. This means that even in a society as contemporary Norway, with a welfare state that offers a range of universal social benefits, own fertility timing is correlated with parents’ fertility behavior. Furthermore, our analyses indicate that fathers’ high age at first birth is closely associated with postponed birth of sons. Results from a microsimulation suggest that the fertility timing of daughters is less malleable by changes in parental age at birth than the fertility timing of sons. Controlling for a limited set of possible confounders, we find that the intergenerational transmission of age at first birth largely persist.

This article focuses on the time frame of intentions to have a child. For both parents and childless people we compare those who want a child now with those who intend to have a child within the next three years. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and using data from Norway (N = 1307), we investigate the role of attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control on these two different time frames in fertility intention. The results show that subjective norms have a significant effect on the timing of intentions to have a child for both childless people and parents: the more both groups feel that their intention to have a child is supported by their families and friends, the more likely they are to want a child now compared to within the next three years. It also shows that positive attitudes have a significant effect on intending to have a child now rather than later for parents but not for childless people. Perceived behavioural control is a significant determinant for both groups: people who consider themselves better able to cope with having child are more likely to intend to have a child now rather than within the next three years. But this effect disappears when we control for demographic background variables, suggesting that the effect of perceived control on the timing of having a child varies considerably with personal circumstances. 1

An important aim of Norwegian work–family policies is to enhance the family role of fathers. Time-use surveys show a slight increase in fathers’ family work, but we still know little about the relationship between men's family circumstances and working hours. On the one hand, policy measures encourage the greater involvement of fathers in family life. On the other hand, men are the main providers in most couples and employment and breadwinning are still important components of men's fathering identity. In this paper, we examine the relationship between fatherhood and working time, with a particular focus on the possible effects of the number and ages of children. Utilizing the Norwegian Labour Force Survey 2005, we find that men's contractual working hours are not significantly affected by their parental status, but men do curtail their actual working hours when they have young children, and particularly if there is only one child in the household. However, men with school-aged children actually work long...

This study focuses on the possible effect of gender equality and equity in the family on the transition to first, second and third births. The analysis includes the division of housework and childcare as well as the perception of whether this division is fair and just. We use a unique dataset combining data from the Norwegian GGS (2007) with information from population register on subsequent childbirths. Results indicate a varying effect of gender equality in the family on childbearing. An unequal division of housework has a negative effect on first and subsequent births. Couples were men contribute more to housework than women, have lower likelihood of first and second births compared to couples with a more typical division where women do more but men contribute substantially. In the same way, couples where the woman does almost all housework has lower likelihood of a third birth. Even though the division of childcare has no substantial impact on continued childbearing, the perception of this division is relevant for parents with one child. Couples in which the respondent perceives the division of childcare as less equitable are less likely to get a second child.

This paper focuses on the realization of positive fertility intentions with different time frames. The analyses are based on a unique combination of survey data and information from Norwegian administrative registers on childbearing in the years following the complete selected sample. Guided by the theoretical and empirical framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the results suggest that a fertility intention's time frame is relevant for childbearing behaviour, but the patterns are somewhat different for respondents who were childless at the time of the interview compared to those who already had children. Overall, childless were less likely to realize their fertility intentions than parents. Following the TPB, childless may underestimate the difficulty of acting on their intentions and therefore have more difficulty realizing their intentions, versus parents who take into account their ability to manage another child. The results also show that childless with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to succeed than those with a longer-term intention. Likewise, parents with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to realize their intention during the two first years after the interview, but after four years the childbearing rate was higher among those with longer-term fertility intentions.

This paper focuses on the realization of positive fertility intentions with different time frames. The analyses are based on a unique combination of survey data and information from Norwegian administrative registers on childbearing in the years following the complete selected sample. Guided by the theoretical and empirical framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the results suggest that a fertility intention's time frame is relevant for childbearing behaviour, but the patterns are somewhat different for respondents who were childless at the time of the interview compared to those who already had children. Overall, childless respondents were less likely to realize their fertility intentions than parents. Following the TPB, childless individuals may underestimate the difficulty of acting on their intentions and therefore have more difficulty realizing their intentions, versus parents who take into account their ability to manage another child. The results also show that childless individuals with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to succeed than those with a longerterm intention. Likewise, parents with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to realize their intention during the two first years after the interview, but after four years the childbearing rate was higher among those with longer-term fertility intentions.

Using data on individuals born 1946 to 1972 from the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey (N = 7,587) we examine differentials in the number and incidence of co-residential relationships by gender and socioeconomic status. Regarding number of relationships, we found that women and younger respondents more often than men and older respondents reported having had two or more unions. 10% of the men and 5% of the women had no union experience by age 35. Controlling for relevant characteristics, our multivariate results showed that high income men experienced fewer unions than lower income men. Having a low income increased the odds of remaining single among men, whereas there was a positive association between tertiary education and remaining unpartnered among women.

ObjectiveThis article examines how the migration behavior of older parents and adult children might be influenced by the geographical configuration of nonresident family networks and the emergence of “linked” life events.BackgroundResearchers have long pointed to the importance of intrahousehold family events as triggers for migration, yet few have detailed how choices over whether, when, and where to migrate are formed with reference to significant others outside of the household.MethodUtilizing geocoded register data for Norway, we identified intergenerational family networks comprising older parents (aged 55+) and their nonresident adult children living 20 km or more apart. We recorded the presence and location of various family ties, the occurrence of several life events, and analyzed their association with the propensity and direction of migration using multinomial logistic regression.ResultsApproximately 40% of all recorded migration events (≥20 km) were directed toward familial locations (i.e., within 10 km of a parent/adult child). The attractiveness of familial locations was strengthened by the colocation of multiple family members and increased with the emergence of life events typically linked to increased support‐needs (e.g., separation, widowhood, and childbirth). Beyond these general patterns, variations existed according to social class, immigrant background, and gender.ConclusionWith the estimated coefficients for nonresident family ties appearing larger than many conventional predictors of migration, we call for far more attention to be paid to the links between kinship networks, care provision, and migration in contemporary society.