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The relevance.Motorgasoline, diesel fuel and other oil products differ in seasonality of consumption, a way of transportation, the territory of realization. The change in demand for petroleum products under the influence of these factors leads to a change in the range and volume of production of various fuels. In this regard, the actual task is to plan the production of petroleum products. It is proposed to solve the problem of predicting the production of petroleum products using autoregressive models taking into account the seasonality factor. The main aimof the research is todevelopand select mathematical models suitable for forecasting generation and consumption of petroleum products production. Objects: production of petroleum products. The models are based on the data of a single interdepartmental information and statistical system. Methods are based on the use of methods of mathematical and simulation modeling. Results. The authors have carried out the review of methods of modeling time series of production and consumption of fuel and energy resources.It compares various mathematical models for forecasting the production of motor gasoline through the example of the Volga federal district. The authors developed the models that differ in consideration of the seasonal components and the type of trend. The use of a multiplicative model containing a trend in the form of a linear, autoregressive, autoregressive-power model with the calculation of the seasonality index is proposed. The articles shows that the best results as per the criterion of the average relative error were obtained using the model with autoregressive-power trend. The efficiency of the obtained model is shown on the example of federal districts of the Russian Federation to assess the production of motor gasoline and diesel fuel. The research results were obtained using the Matlab software package. The authors made post-forecast production of fuels according to the proposed model with an average relative error not exceeding 11 %.

Relevance of the research is in obtaining reliable measured technological parameters (as a minimum, pressure and density of the produced products) in the well obtained in real time for managing the quality of oil producing well and increasing the efficiency of its operation. The aim of the research is to develop a permanent downhole gauge for measuring pressure at the pump inlet and discharge, inside the tubing and annulus of an oil producing well; compile a mathematical model for obtaining necessary technological parameters to solve the main problems in oil production; apply a permanent downhole gauge in the proposed oil production control system. Object of the research is oil producing well. Methods: modeling and evaluation of the proposed oil production control system using the developed permanent downhole gauge for measuring the pressure at several control points of the oil production wells in the program Matlab/Simulink. Results. The authors have developed the permanent downhole gauge for measuring pressure at the pump inlet and discharge, inside the tubing and annulus of the well. The paper demonstrates its design and the mathematical model for obtaining the necessary technological parameters to solve the main tasks in oil production. The authors proposed the control system using the developed gauge, set the task of creating an effective system for managing oil production and solved it. Conclusions. A positive result was obtained when simulating oil production control system using the developed downhole gauge for measuring pressure at several control points in an oil producing well using the Matlab/Simulink program. The implementation of the developed permanent downhole gauge in the proposed system for controlling oil production ensures the accuracy and speed of switching the well to the stationary mode of operation, its stabilization and increase in the flow rate.