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Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain-age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain-age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain-age models pre-trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain-age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre-trained brain-age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best-performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain-age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5-90 years; 53.59% female). The pre-trained models were tested for cross-dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8-80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9-25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age-bins (5-40 and 40-90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain-age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain (https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2), an open-science, web-based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant-environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co-occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process-based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above- and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses to quantify allometric relationships for leaf, stem, and root biomass, as well as plant height and canopy area. We used basal diameter as a reference measure of plant size. Overall, basal diameter is the best predictor for leaf and stem biomass, height, and canopy area. Including height as another predictor can improve model accuracy in predicting leaf and stem biomass and canopy area. Fine root biomass is a function of leaf biomass alone. Species vary in their allometric relationships, with most variation occurring for plant height, canopy area, and stem biomass. We further explored potential trade-offs in biomass allocation across species between leaf and fine root, leaf and stem, and allocation to reproduction. Consistent with our expectation, we found that fast-growing plants allocated a greater fraction to reproduction. Additionally, plant height and specific leaf area negatively influenced the leaf-to-stem ratio. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no differences in root-to-leaf ratio between perennial and annual or C4 and C3 plants. Our study provides species-specific and functional-type-specific allometry equations for both above- and belowground organs of 11 common California grass species, enabling nondestructive biomass assessment in California grasslands. These allometric relationships and trade-offs in carbon allocation across species can improve ecosystem model predictions of grassland species interactions and environmental responses through differences in morphology.

We present a representation of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, a demographic vegetation model within the Energy Exascale Earth System land model. This representation is modular, and designed to allow testing of multiple hypothetical approaches for carbon-nutrient coupling in plants. Novel model hypotheses introduced in this work include, (a) the controls on plant acquisition of aqueous mineralized nutrients in the soil and (b) fairly straight forward methods of allocating nutrients to specific plant organs and their losses through live plant turnover as well as litter fluxes generated through plant mortality. This combines the new with pre-existing hypotheses (such as nitrogen fixation and soil decomposition) into a system that can accommodate plant-soil dynamics for a large number of size- and functional-type-resolved plant cohorts within a time-since-disturbance-resolved ecosystem. Root uptake of nutrients is governed by fine root biomass, and plants vary in their fine root biomass allocation in order to balance carbon and nutrient limitations to growth. We test the sensitivity of the model to a wide range of parameter variations and structural representations, and in the context of observations at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. A key model prediction is that plants in the high-light-availability canopy positions allocate more carbon to fine roots than plants in low-light understory environments, given the widely different carbon versus nutrient constraints of these two niches within a given ecosystem. This model provides a basis for exploring carbon-nutrient coupling with vegetation demography within Earth system models.

Bacteria on and inside leaves can influence forest tree health and resilience. The distribution and limits of a tree species' range can be influenced by various factors, with biological interactions among the most significant. We investigated the processes shaping the bacterial needle community across the species distribution of limber pine, a widespread Western conifer inhabiting a range of extreme habitats. We tested four hypotheses: (i) Needle community structure varies across sites, with site-specific factors more important to microbial assembly than host species selection; (ii) dispersal limitation structures foliar communities across the range of limber pine; (iii) the relative significance of dispersal and selection differs across sites in the tree species range; and (iv) needle age structures bacterial communities. We characterized needle communities from the needle surface and tissue of limber pine and co-occurring conifers across 16 sites in the limber pine distribution. Our findings confirmed that site characteristics shape the assembly of bacterial communities across the host species range and showed that these patterns are not driven by dispersal limitation. Furthermore, the strength of selection by the host varied by site, possibly due to differences in available microbes. Our study, by focusing on trees in their natural setting, reveals real needle bacterial dynamics in forests, which is key to understanding the balance between stochastic and deterministic processes in shaping forest tree-microbe interactions. Such understanding will be necessary to predict or manipulate these interactions to support forest ecosystem productivity or assist plant migration and adaptation in the face of global change.

Video recording is a widely used tool for studying animal behavior, especially in fields such as primatology. Primatologists rely on video data to analyze and research topics such as social grooming to uncover subtle mechanisms behind complex social behavior and structures. Insights into these social behaviors may provide us with a better understanding of our closest living relatives, but also new theories and insights into our own behavior. However, analyzing this type of data using manual annotation is currently a time-consuming task. Here we present an end-to-end pipeline to track chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) poses using DeepLabCut (DLC) which then serves as input to a support vector machine. This classifier was trained to detect role transitions within grooming interactions. We replicate a recent study showing that DLC has usability value for chimpanzee data collected in natural environments. Our combined method of tracking and classification is remarkably successful in detecting the presence of grooming, indicating the directionality and a change in turn with an accuracy above 86% on unseen videos. We can identify particular pose features used in the classification of grooming, which will contribute to the exploration of turn-taking dynamics on a scale that would otherwise be difficult to attain with traditional methods. Finally, our pipeline can in principle be applied to recognize a variety of other socially interactive behaviors that are largely recognizable by (joint) postural states.

Abstract The Parkinson’s Families Project is a UK-wide study aimed at identifying genetic variation associated with familial and early-onset Parkinson’s disease (PD). We recruited individuals with a clinical diagnosis of PD and age at motor symptom onset ≤45 years and/or a family history of PD in up to third-degree relatives. Where possible, we also recruited affected and unaffected relatives. We analysed DNA samples with a combination of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array genotyping, multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA), and whole-genome sequencing (WGS). We investigated the association between identified pathogenic mutations and demographic and clinical factors such as age at motor symptom onset, family history, motor symptoms (MDS-UPDRS) and cognitive performance (MoCA). We performed baseline genetic analysis in 718 families, of which 205 had sporadic early-onset PD (sEOPD), 113 had familial early-onset PD (fEOPD), and 400 had late-onset familial PD (fLOPD). 69 (9.6%) of these families carried pathogenic variants in known monogenic PD-related genes. The rate of a molecular diagnosis increased to 28.1% in PD with motor onset ≤35 years. We identified pathogenic variants in LRRK2 in 4.2% of families, and biallelic pathogenic variants in PRKN in 3.6% of families. We also identified two families with SNCA duplications and three families with a pathogenic repeat expansion in ATXN2, as well as single families with pathogenic variants in VCP, PINK1, PNPLA6, PLA2G6, SPG7, GCH1, and RAB32. An additional 73 (10.2%) families were carriers of at least one pathogenic or risk GBA1 variant. Most early-onset and familial PD cases do not have a known genetic cause, indicating that there are likely to be further monogenic causes for PD.

Abstract Adolescence is a period of dynamic brain remodeling and susceptibility to psychiatric risk factors, mediated by the protracted consolidation of association cortices. Here, we investigated whether longitudinal variation in adolescents’ resilience to psychosocial stressors during this vulnerable period is associated with ongoing myeloarchitectural maturation and consolidation of functional networks. We used repeated myelin-sensitive Magnetic Transfer (MT) and resting-state functional neuroimaging (n = 141), and captured adversity exposure by adverse life events, dysfunctional family settings, and socio-economic status at two timepoints, one to two years apart. Development toward more resilient psychosocial functioning was associated with increasing myelination in the anterolateral prefrontal cortex, which showed stabilized functional connectivity. Studying depth-specific intracortical MT profiles and the cortex-wide synchronization of myeloarchitectural maturation, we further observed wide-spread myeloarchitectural reconfiguration of association cortices paralleled by attenuated functional reorganization with increasingly resilient outcomes. Together, resilient/susceptible psychosocial functioning showed considerable intra-individual change associated with multi-modal cortical refinement processes at the local and system-level.

Abstract The auditory steady state response (ASSR) arises when periodic sounds evoke stable responses in auditory networks that reflect the acoustic characteristics of the stimuli, such as the amplitude of the sound envelope. Larger for some stimulus rates than others, the ASSR in the human electroencephalogram (EEG) is notably maximal for sounds modulated in amplitude at 40 Hz. To investigate the local circuit underpinnings of the large ASSR to 40 Hz amplitude-modulated (AM) sounds, we acquired skull EEG and local field potential (LFP) recordings from primary auditory cortex (A1) in the rat during the presentation of 20, 30, 40, 50, and 80 Hz AM tones. 40 Hz AM tones elicited the largest ASSR from the EEG acquired above auditory cortex and the LFP acquired from each cortical layer in A1. The large ASSR in the EEG to 40 Hz AM tones was not due to larger instantaneous amplitude of the signals or to greater phase alignment of the LFP across the cortical layers. Instead, it resulted from decreased latency variability (or enhanced temporal consistency) of the 40 Hz response. Statistical models indicate the EEG signal was best predicted by LFPs in either the most superficial or deep cortical layers, suggesting deep layer coordinators of the ASSR. Overall, our results indicate that the recruitment of non-uniform but more temporally consistent responses across A1 layers underlie the larger ASSR to amplitude-modulated tones at 40 Hz.

There has been considerable speculation regarding the function of the dentate gyrus (DG) - a subregion of the mammalian hippocampus - in learning and memory. In this Perspective article, we compare leading theories of DG function. We note that these theories all critically rely on the generation of distinct patterns of activity in the region to signal differences between experiences and to reduce interference between memories. However, these theories are divided by the roles they attribute to the DG during learning and recall and by the contributions they ascribe to specific inputs or cell types within the DG. These differences influence the information that the DG is thought to impart to downstream structures. We work towards a holistic view of the role of DG in learning and memory by first developing three critical questions to foster a dialogue between the leading theories. We then evaluate the extent to which previous studies address our questions, highlight remaining areas of conflict, and suggest future experiments to bridge these theories.

Extreme weather has made 2023 virtually certain to be the warmest year on record, signaling unprecedented climate and biodiversity crises. Brazil, the world’s most biodiverse country, with two hotspots and complex social and economic layers, has experienced escalating environmental degradation over the past years. Alarming rates of native vegetation loss, wildfires, severe and prolonged droughts, and heatwaves have adversely impacted several Brazilian ecosystems and societies. Despite the country’s decisive role in global carbon neutrality, bridging the gap between Brazil’s discourse on the international stage and its concrete actions at home remains a significant challenge. This correspondence, a collective plea from scientists across various sectors, underscores the urgent imperative for national engagement and commitment to halt and mitigate these crises. We aim to catalyze a robust international public debate, influencing Brazilian decision-makers to chart a concrete sustainable pathway. Aligned with global initiatives, we emphasize the crucial interplay between national and international efforts in combating climate change and the conservation of biodiversity and socio-biodiversity.

Abstract People with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are sensitive to effects of long-term stress, but might differ in stress resilience, i.e. the ability to maintain mental health despite adversity. It is unclear whether stress resilience in PD is predominantly determined by dopamine deficiency, psychosocial factors, or both. In PD animal models, chronic stressors accelerate disease progression, but evidence in humans is lacking. Our objectives were to (1) distinguish stressor-reactive from resilient PD patients, (2) identify resilience factors, and (3) compare symptom progression between stressor-reactive and resilient patients. We conducted a longitudinal survey in Personalized Parkinson Project participants (N = 350 PD). We used the COVID-19 pandemic as a model of a stressor, aligned in time for the entire cohort. COVID-19-related stressors, perceived stress, and PD symptoms were assessed at 11 timepoints (April-October 2020). Both pre-COVID and in-COVID clinical assessments were available. We quantified stressor-reactivity as the residual between actual and predicted perceived stress relative to COVID-19-related stressors, and modeled trajectories of stressor-reactivity across timepoints. We explored pre-COVID predictors of 6-month average stressor-reactivity, and tested whether stressor-reactivity was prospectively associated with one-year clinical progression rates. Latent class trajectory models distinguished patients with high (N = 123) or low (N = 227) stressor-reactivity. Pre-existing anxiety, rumination and non-motor symptom severity predicted high stressor-reactivity (risk factors), whereas quality of life, social support, positive appraisal style and cognitive abilities predicted low stressor-reactivity (resilience factors). PD-specific factors, e.g. disease duration, motor severity, and levodopa use, did not predict stressor-reactivity. The COVID-19 pandemic did not accelerate disease progression, but worsened depressive symptoms in stressor-reactive PD patients.

PurposeThe study aimed to (1) assess the feasibility constrained spherical deconvolution (CSD) tractography to reconstruct crossing fiber bundles with unsedated neonatal diffusion MRI (dMRI), and (2) demonstrate the impact of spatial and angular resolution and processing settings on tractography and derived quantitative measures.MethodsFor the purpose of this study, the term-equivalent dMRIs (single-shell b800, and b2000, both 5 b0, and 45 gradient directions) of two moderate-late preterm infants (with and without motion artifacts) from a local cohort [Brain Imaging in Moderate-late Preterm infants (BIMP) study; Calgary, Canada] and one infant from the developing human connectome project with high-quality dMRI (using the b2600 shell, comprising 20 b0 and 128 gradient directions, from the multi-shell dataset) were selected. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and CSD tractography were compared on b800 and b2000 dMRI. Varying image resolution modifications, (pre-)processing and tractography settings were tested to assess their impact on tractography. Each experiment involved visualizing local modeling and tractography for the corpus callosum and corticospinal tracts, and assessment of morphological and diffusion measures.ResultsContrary to DTI, CSD enabled reconstruction of crossing fibers. Tractography was susceptible to image resolution, (pre-) processing and tractography settings. In addition to visual variations, settings were found to affect streamline count, length, and diffusion measures (fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity). Diffusion measures exhibited variations of up to 23%.ConclusionReconstruction of crossing fiber bundles using CSD tractography with unsedated neonatal dMRI data is feasible. Tractography settings affected streamline reconstruction, warranting careful documentation of methods for reproducibility and comparison of cohorts.

Summary: Early modern humans lived as hunter-gatherers for millennia before agriculture, yet the genetic adaptations of these populations remain a mystery. Here, we investigate selection in the ancient hunter-gatherer-fisher Jomon and contrast pre- and post-agricultural adaptation in the Japanese archipelago. Building on the successful validation of imputation with ancient Asian genomes, we identify selection signatures in the Jomon, particularly robust signals from KITLG variants, which may have influenced dark pigmentation evolution. The Jomon lacks well-known adaptive variants (EDAR, ADH1B, and ALDH2), marking their emergence after the advent of farming in the archipelago. Notably, the EDAR and ADH1B variants were prevalent in the archipelago 1,300 years ago, whereas the ALDH2 variant could have emerged later due to its absence in other ancient genomes. Overall, our study underpins local adaptation unique to the Jomon population, which in turn sheds light on post-farming selection that continues to shape contemporary Asian populations.

Using in-depth interviews, we sought to characterize the everyday medical and social needs of pediatric liver transplant caregivers to inform the future design of solutions to improve care processes. Participants (parents/caregivers of pediatric liver transplant recipients) completed a survey (assessing socioeconomic status, economic hardship, health literacy, and social isolation). We then asked participants to undergo a 60-min virtual, semistructured qualitative interview to understand the everyday medical and social needs of the caregiver and their household. We intentionally oversampled caregivers who reported a social or economic hardship on the survey. Transcripts were analyzed using thematic analysis and organized around the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behavior model. A total of 18 caregivers participated. Of the participants, 50% reported some form of financial strain, and about half had less than 4 years of college education. Caregivers had high motivation and capability in executing transplant-related tasks but identified several opportunities for improving care. Caregivers perceived the health system to lack capability in identifying and intervening on specific family social needs. Caregiver interviews revealed multiple areas in which family supports could be strengthened, including (1) managing indirect costs of prolonged hospitalizations (e.g., food, parking), (2) communicating with employers to support families' needs, (3) coordinating care across hospital departments, and (4) clarifying care team roles in helping families reduce both medical and social barriers. This study highlights the caregiver perspective on barriers and facilitators to posttransplant care. Future work should identify whether these themes are present across transplant centers. Caregiver perspectives should help inform future interventions aimed at improving long-term outcomes for children after liver transplantation.

Purpose: Due to a rapidly changing climate, voluntary carbon markets are gaining momentum and should be leveraged to improve and expand tropical sustainable forest management plans, limiting carbon emissions and enhancing critical carbon sinks. By sequestering more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem — ~1 Pg C yr−1 — tropical forests provide crucial natural climate solutions and opportunities in the evolving voluntary carbon market. Methods: Here, we argue that some issues with the current sustainable management of tropical forests can be addressed using carbon-focused sustainable forest management (SFM + C) to leverage financial resources for tropical forest carbon storage and sequestration. We suggest an extended harvest cycle in SFM + C and calculate an associated potential increase in aboveground carbon stocks of commercial timber of 1.26 Mg C ha−1 after each cycle in the Brazilian Amazon. Results: The additional carbon storage due to a longer harvest cycle can generate carbon credits worth 152.6 (SD 9.2) US dollars per hectare in 40 years. Considering an average cost of 180 BRL per m3 of commercial timber delivered to the sawmill, an SFM + C plan with a 40-year cycle could generate 28.7% (SD 2.5) more profit than 35-year cycles by combining timber and carbon revenues. Conclusion: A robust carbon price could incentivize the further extension of harvest cycles, providing a monetary return that offsets the opportunity cost intrinsic to harvesting under longer cycles. Finally, we highlight research needs to support tropical SFM + C, which can be part of a global collective effort to limit global warming to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) represent a substantial risk to maternal and fetal health. Emerging evidence suggests an association between testosterone and pre-eclampsia (PE), potentially mediated through androgen receptors (AR). Nevertheless, the mechanism driving this association is yet to be elucidated. On the other hand, reports of transgender men’s pregnancies offer a limited and insightful opportunity to understand the role of high androgen levels in the development of HDP. In this sense, a literature review was performed from a little over 2 decades (1998–2022) to address the association of testosterone levels with the development of HDP. Furthermore, this review addresses the case of transgender men for the first time. The main in vitro outcomes reveal placenta samples with greater AR mRNA expression. Moreover, ex vivo studies show that testosterone-induced vasorelaxation impairment promotes hypertension. Epidemiological data point to greater testosterone levels in blood samples during PE. Studies with transgender men allow us to infer that exogenous testosterone administration can be considered a risk factor for PE and that the administration of testosterone does not affect fetal development. Overall, all studies analyzed suggested that high testosterone levels are associated with PE.

Zusammenfassung Der Aufsatz nimmt das Aufeinander-Verwiesen-Sein von Organisation und Profession im Handeln zum Ausgangspunkt und fokussiert die professionellen Kompetenzen. Er fragt, ob und wenn ja, wie professionelle Kompetenzen von Lehrenden in der Hochschule organisational variieren. Dabei werden zwei Zielrichtungen verfolgt: Theoretisch und forschungsmethodisch gilt es exemplarisch an einem Forschungsprojekt darzustellen, wie Professions- und Organisationsforschung in Theorieanlage und Methode miteinander verbunden sind. Aufbauend darauf weisen empirisch ausgewählte Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass professionelle Kompetenzen von Lehrenden und die Wahrnehmung der Hochschule als unterstützenden versus hemmenden Kontext organisationsbezogen variieren. Auf diese Weise werden der theoretische, methodische und empirische Mehrwert einer Verbindung beider Stränge sichtbar.

Abstract Insect faunas from the latest Cretaceous are poorly known worldwide. Particularly, in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a gap regarding insect assemblages in the Campanian-Maastrichtian interval. Here we present an insect assemblage from the Maastrichtian Chorrillo Formation, southern Argentina, represented by well-preserved and non-deformed, chitinous microscopic remains including head capsules, wings and scales. Identified clades include Chironomidae dipterans, Coelolepida lepidopterans, and Ephemeroptera. The assemblage taxonomically resembles those of Cenozoic age, rather than other Mesozoic assemblages, in being composed by diverse chironomids and lepidopterans. To the best of our knowledge, present discovery constitutes the first insect body fossils for the Maastrichtian in the Southern Hemisphere, thus filling the gap between well-known Early Cretaceous entomofaunas and those of Paleogene age. The presented evidence shows that modern clades of chironomids were already dominant and diversified by the end of the Cretaceous, in concert with the parallel radiation of aquatic angiosperms which became dominant in freshwater habitats. This exceptional finding encourages the active search of microscopic remains of fossil arthropods in other geological units, which could provide a unique way of enhancing our knowledge on the past diversity of the clade.

While tropical cyclone regimes are shifting with climate change, the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (capacity to return to pre-disturbance reference) of tropical forest litterfall to cyclones remain largely unexplored pantropically. Single-site studies in Australia and Hawaii suggest that litterfall on low-phosphorus (P) soils is more resistant and less resilient to cyclones. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the pantropical importance of total soil P in mediating forest litterfall resistance and resilience to 22 tropical cyclones. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m2 /day), and P and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m2 /day) and concentrations (mg/g), all indicators of ecosystem function and essential for nutrient cycling. Across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan, total litterfall mass flux increased from ~2.5 ± 0.3 to 22.5 ± 3 g/m2 /day due to cyclones, with large variation among studies. Litterfall P and N fluxes post-cyclone represented ~5% and 10% of the average annual fluxes, respectively. Post-cyclone leaf litterfall N and P concentrations were 21.6 ± 1.2% and 58.6 ± 2.3% higher than pre-cyclone means. Mixed-effects models determined that soil P negatively moderated the pantropical litterfall resistance to cyclones, with a 100 mg P/kg increase in soil P corresponding to a 32% to 38% decrease in resistance. Based on 33% of the resistance case studies, total litterfall mass flux reached pre-disturbance levels within one-year post-disturbance. A GAMM indicated that soil P, gale wind duration and time post-cyclone jointly moderate the short-term resilience of total litterfall, with the nature of the relationship between resilience and soil P contingent on time and wind duration. Across pantropical forests observed to date, our results indicate that litterfall resistance and resilience in the face of intensifying cyclones will be partially determined by total soil P.

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.