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Background and aims: The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing globally. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of NAFLD and the probability of liver fibrosis in Italian primary care services. Methods: We carried out a population-based and nested case–control study including all individuals aged 18 years and above registered at Italian primary care services. Data were collected from the general practitioners' network from 2010 to 2017. NAFLD cases were identified via the ICD-9-CM and Hepatic Steatosis Index score > 36 and were matched each up to 10 controls. Other causes of liver diseases were excluded. The risk of fibrosis was assessed using the FIB-4 and NAFLD fibrosis scores (NFS). Results: NAFLD was present in 9% of the primary care population with high regional variability. Among NAFLD subjects: 25% had diabetes, 10% had chronic kidney disease, 11% had cardiovascular disease and 28% were obese. Furthermore, 30% had at least two comorbidities and 13% had cirrhosis. Once cirrhosis was excluded, the risk of any degree of fibrosis was 13.8% with NFS and 20.5% with FIB-4 in subjects <65 years. Conclusions: Even if there is an identification gap in primary care, recorded cases with NAFLD have a high frequency of associated comorbidities. Despite regional variability, a close relation between cirrhosis and NAFLD exists (OR: 3.48, 95% CI: 3.23–3.76). Therefore, the use of non-invasive tests should be promoted in primary care as a useful tool for the early identification of fibrosis risk, independently of evidence of steatosis.

Background: Little is known about the comparative risk of death with atypical or conventional antipsychotics (APs) among persons with cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease (CCD). Research design and methods: A cohort study was conducted using five Italian claims databases. New atypical AP users with CCD aged ≥65 (reference) were matched to new conventional AP users. Mortality per 100 person-years (PYs) and hazard ratios (HR), estimated using Cox models, were reported. Incidence and risk of death were estimated for persons having drug–drug interactions. Outcome occurrence was evaluated 180 days after AP initiation. Results: Overall 24,711 and 27,051 elderly new conventional and atypical AP users were identified. The mortality rate was 51.3 and 38.5 deaths per 100 PYs for conventional and atypical AP users. Mortality risk was 1.33 (95%CI: 1.27–1.39) for conventional APs. There was no increased mortality risk with single drug–drug interactions (DDIs) vs. no DDI. AP users with ≥1 DDI had a 29% higher mortality risk compared to no DDI in the first 90 days of treatment (HR: 1.29 (95% CI: 1.00–1.67)). Conclusions: Conventional APs had a higher risk of death than atypical APs among elderly persons with CCD. Having ≥1 DDI was associated with an increased risk of death.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to compare body mass index (BMI), systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) and serum total cholesterol levels between dementia cases and controls at multiple time intervals prior to dementia onset, and to test time interval as a modifying factor for these associations. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: Six European electronic health records databases. PARTICIPANTS: 291 780 cases at the date of first-recorded dementia diagnosis, compared with 29 170 549 controls randomly selected from the same databases, age matched and sex matched at this index date. EXPOSURE: The following measures were extracted whenever recorded within each dataset: BMI (kg/m2), SBP and DBP (mm Hg) and serum total cholesterol (mmol/L). Levels for each of these variables were defined within six 2-year time intervals over the 12 years prior to the index date. MAIN OUTCOMES: Case-control differences in exposures of interest were modelled for each time period and adjusted for demographic and clinical factors (ischaemic/unspecified stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus, acute myocardial infarction, hypertension diagnosis, antihypertensive medication, cholesterol-lowering medication). Coefficients and interactions with time period were meta-analysed across the six databases. RESULTS: Mean BMI (coefficient -1.16 kg/m2; 95% CI -1.38 to 0.93) and SBP (-2.83 mm Hg; 95% CI -4.49 to -1.16) were lower in cases at diagnosis, and case-control differences were greater in more recent time periods, as indicated by significant case-x-time interaction and case-x-time-squared interaction terms. Time variations in coefficients for cholesterol levels were less consistent between databases and those for DBP were largely not significant. CONCLUSION: Routine clinical data show emerging divergence in levels of BMI and SBP prior to the diagnosis of dementia but less evidence for DBP or total cholesterol levels. These divergences should receive at least some consideration in routine

Background: There are sparse real-world data on severe asthma exacerbations (SAE) in children. This multinational cohort study assessed the incidence of and risk factors for SAE and the incidence of asthma-related rehospitalization in children with asthma. Methods: Asthma patients 5-17 years old with ≥1 year of follow-up were identified in six European electronic databases from the Netherlands, Italy, the UK, Denmark and Spain in 2008-2013. Asthma was defined as ≥1 asthma-specific disease code within 3 months of prescriptions/dispensing of asthma medication. Severe asthma was defined as high-dosed inhaled corticosteroids plus a second controller. SAE was defined by systemic corticosteroids, emergency department visit and/or hospitalization all for reason of asthma. Risk factors for SAE were estimated by Poisson regression analyses. Results: The cohort consisted of 212 060 paediatric asthma patients contributing to 678 625 patient-years (PY). SAE rates ranged between 17 and 198/1000 PY and were higher in severe asthma and highest in severe asthma patients with a history of exacerbations. Prior SAE (incidence rate ratio 3-45) and younger age increased the SAE risk in all countries, whereas obesity, atopy and GERD were a risk factor in some but not all countries. Rehospitalization rates were up to 79% within 1 year. Conclusions: In a real-world setting, SAE rates were highest in children with severe asthma with a history of exacerbations. Many severe asthma patients were rehospitalized within 1 year. Asthma management focusing on prevention of SAE is important to reduce the burden of asthma.

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Introduction: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a major public health concern. From a public health perspective, the epidemiology of CHF needs to be distinguished from that of its related acute form. Data stemming from primary care are crucial to better know and update the prevalence and incidence rates of CHF. Aim: To update the epidemiology of CHF in an Italian primary care setting and to describe socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics of these patients. Methods: A population-based study was conducted among 800 Italian general practitioners collecting data in a dedicated database. Information was extracted from adult subjects with a diagnosis of CHF from 2002 to 2013, and the prevalence and incidence rate of CHF were calculated. The study population was described in terms of socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics. Results: A total of 13,633 patients with CHF were identified. Overall, the prevalence of CHF was 1.25% (95% CI 1.23–1.27), and the incidence rate was 1.99 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 1.81–2.08). In this population, smoking, alcohol use, and obesity were present in 2.93, 0.45, and 10.80% of cases, respectively. Hypertension (58.40%), chronic kidney disease (51.36%), dyslipidaemia (44.62%), ischaemic heart disease (25.75%), and atrial fibrillation (25.32%) were the most represented comorbidities. Conclusion: This study provides an updated epidemiological scenario of CHF in a primary care setting in Italy. These data may be useful to weight the social and economic impact of CHF and to plan strategies for improving the clinical care of CHF in general practice.

We aimed to develop and validate the FRActure Health Search (FRA-HS) score for prediction of risk of osteoporotic fractures in primary care in Italy. We selected a cohort of patients aged 40 years between 1999 and 2002. They were followed until the occurrence of osteoporotic fracture, death, end of data registration, or end of data availability (December 31, 2012). Age, sex, history of osteoporotic fractures, secondary osteoporosis, long-term use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, body mass index, smoking, and alcohol abuse/alcohol-related diseases, and the interaction terms sex*use of corticosteroids and age*secondary osteoporosis were entered in a competing-risk regression (Fine and Gray method) to predict the risk of hip/femur or overall major osteoporotic fractures. The coefficients were combined to obtain the FRA-HS for individual patients. Explained variance, discrimination, and calibration measures were computed to evaluate the models accuracy. The final model was tested using an independent data source. The FRA-HS explained 47.36 and 20.6% of the variation for occurrence of hip/femur and overall major osteoporotic fractures, respectively. Area Under Curve was 0.77 and 0.73, respectively. Predicted/observed ratios revealed a margin of error lower than 30% in the 80% of the population. After stratifying by sex, prediction models for hip/femur fractures confirmed acceptable accuracy in both sexes, while poor explained variance (<20%) was observed for overall major fractures. These findings indicate that FRA-HS might be implemented in primary care for risk prediction of hip/femur fractures. General practitioners could be therefore supported by this tool in clinical decision making.

The original version of this article contained a mistake whereby the authors’ surnames preceded their first names.The correct order of the authors names is given in this erratum.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or stroke in adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). DESIGN: Matched cohort study. SETTING: Population based, electronic primary healthcare databases before 31 December 2015 from four European countries: Italy (n=1 542 672), Netherlands (n=2 225 925), Spain (n=5 488 397), and UK (n=12 695 046). PARTICIPANTS: 120 795 adults with a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH and no other liver diseases, matched at time of NAFLD diagnosis (index date) by

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common condition that progresses in some patients to steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here we used healthcare records of 18 million adults to estimate risk of acquiring advanced liver disease diagnoses in patients with NAFLD or NASH compared to individually matched controls. Methods: Data were extracted from four European primary care databases representing the UK, Netherlands, Italy and Spain. Patients with a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH (NAFLD/NASH) were followed up for incident cirrhosis and HCC diagnoses. Each coded NAFLD/NASH patient was matched to up to 100 “non-NAFLD” patients by practice site, gender, age ± 5 years and visit recorded within ± 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox models adjusted for age and smoking status and pooled across databases by random effects meta-analyses. Results: Out of 18,782,281 adults, we identified 136,703 patients with coded NAFLD/NASH. Coded NAFLD/NASH patients were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension and obesity than matched controls. HR for cirrhosis in patients compared to controls was 4.73 (95% CI 2.43–9.19) and for HCC, 3.51 (95% CI 1.72–7.16). HR for either outcome was higher in patients with NASH and those with high-risk Fib-4 scores. The strongest independent predictor of a diagnosis of HCC or cirrhosis was baseline diagnosis of diabetes. Conclusions: Real-world population data show that recorded diagnosis of NAFLD/NASH increases risk of lifethreatening liver outcomes. Diabetes is an independent predictor of advanced liver disease diagnosis, emphasising the need to identify specific groups of patients at highest risk.