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Climate change is expected to alter both forest stand- and landscape-level dynamics through a change in environmental characteristics. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests throughout the world, there is need to further refine such analyses. In this paper, we contribute to this literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS–LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (computable general equilibrium) model to better account for the economic impact associated with climate-induced impacts on forest stand- and landscape-level structure and composition dynamics. Applying this framework to a case-study region of New Brunswick, Canada, we estimate that climate change will reduce softwood supply by 16%–73% and impact hardwood supply in the range of −2% to +4% by 2150. The change in wood supply is estimated to reduce the value of the softwood and hardwood forestry and logging sector output by up to 51% and 17%, respectively, by 2150. These sector-level impacts may lead to a 0.08%–0.88% reduction in annual gross domestic product by 2150. The methodological advances established in this study can be used to better inform future forest management and economic plans that aim to lessen both the ecological and economic impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts on forests are largely expected to intensify over the next few decades. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling is increasingly becoming a popular tool for assessing these impacts. Previous analyses in this area have been based on either single-region or multiregional CGE model specifications, each with their own advantages and disadvantages. To date, however, there has been no systematic comparison of the potential differences in economic impact estimates between the two CGE model specifications. To examine the extent of these potential differences, we conducted a comparative economic impact analysis of climate change in the forest sector across Canadian provinces, the United States, and the rest of the world using dynamic, single-region and multiregional CGE models over the 2006-2051 period. Results revealed that, within each region, different model specifications produced unique economic impact estimates, differing by as much as 18% under each climate change scenario considered. Overall, a majority of Canadian regions recorded smaller (in absolute value terms) and more positive economic impacts using single-region models compared with the multiregional model. Differences in international trade specifications between models, together with unique climate change impact considerations across regions, played key roles in the findings. While few general conclusions emerge from this analysis, it is clear that CGE model specifications can have a significant effect on regional economic impact estimates of climate change in the forest sector. Thus, caution is advised when using the estimates of any one CGE model for policy purposes. Key words: computable general equilibrium, forest sector, stumpage, regional analysis. On s'attend generalement a ce que les impacts des changements climatiques sur les forets s'intensifient au cours des quelques decennies a venir. Le modele d'equilibre general calculable (EGC) est un outil de plus en plus populaire pour evaluer ces impacts. Les analyses precedentes dans ce domaine ont ete realisees sur la base de specifications des modeles EGC propres soit a une seule, soit a plusieurs regions, chaque approche ayant ses avantages et ses desavantages. Cependant, a ce jour il n'y a pas eu de comparaison systematique des differences potentielles entre les estimations de l'impact economique decoulant des deux types de specification des modeles EGC. Pour examiner l'importance de ces possibles differences, nous avons realise une etude comparative d'impact economique des changements climatiques dans le secteur forestier a travers les provinces canadiennes, les Etats-Unis et le reste du monde en utilisant des modeles EGC dynamiques uniregional et multiregional couvrant la periode 2006-2051. Les resultats revelent que, dans chaque region, differentes specifications du modele produisent des estimations de l'impact economique uniques dont les differences peuvent atteindre 18 % pour chaque scenario de changements climatiques utilise. Globalement, la majorite des regions canadiennes subissaient des impacts economiques plus faibles (en termes de valeur absolue) et plus positives en utilisant le modele uniregional plutot que multiregional. Des differences de specification relatives au commerce international entre les modeles, combinees a des considerations regionales particulieres concernant l'impact des changements climatiques, ont joue un role cle dans les conclusions. Bien que peu de conclusions generales ressortent de cette analyse, il est clair que les specifications des modeles EGC peuvent avoir un effet significatif sur les estimations de l'impact economique des changements climatiques dans le secteur forestier. Par consequent, la prudence est conseillee lorsqu'on utilise les estimations de n'importe quel modele EGC pour l'elaboration de politiques. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: equilibre general calculable, secteur forestier, bois sur pied, analyse regionale., 1. Introduction Climate change impacts on forests are being experienced in many countries across the globe today. It is likely that the changing global temperature and precipitation patterns will continue [...]

: We investigated the potential economic impacts of future spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) outbreaks on 2.8 million hectares of Crown forest land in New Brunswick by coupling an advanced Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS) model with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. A total of 16 alternative scenarios were evaluated, including two SBW outbreak severities (moderate versus severe), four SBW control program levels (protecting 0%, 10%, 20%, and 40% of susceptible Crown land forest area), and two pest management strategies ('without' versus 'with' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage). The 'without' replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy findings indicated that, under uncontrolled moderate and severe SBW outbreaks, total output in the New Brunswick economy over the 2012-2041 period would decline in present-value terms by CDN$3.3 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively. SBW control via aerial spraying was shown to reduce the negative impacts on output by up to 66% when protecting 40% of susceptible area. Combining SBW control with replanning harvest scheduling and salvage strategy under moderate and severe outbreaks would reduce the negative impacts on output by a further 1%-18% depending on the level of control implemented. These findings can help forest managers assess the direct and indirect economic effects of forest pest disturbances on regional economies and can also be used together with other sustainable forest management indicators to help broaden the scope of SBW and other forest pest management decision-making. Resume: Nous avons examine les impacts economiques potentiels de futures epidemies de tordeuse des bourgeons de l'epinette (TBE) (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)) sur 2, 8 millions d'hectares de forets publiques au Nouveau-Brunswick en couplant un modele sophistique d'aide a la decision pour la TBE avec un modele dynamique d'equilibre general qui peut etre calcule. Un total de 16 scenarios differents ont ete evalues, incluant deux niveaux de severite d'epidemie de TBE (moderee versus severe), quatre intensites de programmes de lutte (protection de 0 %, 10 %, 20 % et 40 % de la superficie forestiere a risque sur les terres publiques) et deux strategies de gestion des ravageurs (avec et sans replanification du calendrier de recolte ni coupe de recuperation). Les resultats associes a la strategie qui ne comporte pas de replanification du calendrier de recolte ni de coupe de recuperation indiquent que, dans le cas d'epidemies moderees et severes non reprimees de TBE, la production totale de l'economie du Nouveau-Brunswick durant la periode 2014-2041 diminuerait en valeur actualisee de respectivement CDN3, 3 $ milliards et 4,7 $ milliards. Le recours aux arrosages aeriens pour lutter contre la TBE pourrait reduire jusqu'a 66 % les impacts negatifs sur la production en protegeant 40 % de la superficie a risque. En cas d'epidemies moderees et severes, la strategie qui combine la lutte contre la TBE avec la replanification du calendrier de recolte et la coupe de recuperation reduirait les impacts negatifs sur la production dans une proportion additionnelle de 1 % - 18 % dependamment du niveau de lutte mis en oeuvre. Ces resultats peuvent aider les amenagistes forestiers a evaluer les effets economiques directs et indirects des perturbations causees par les ravageurs forestiers sur les economies regionales et peuvent aussi etre utilises avec d'autres indicateurs d'amenagement forestier durable pour aider a elargir la portee du processus de prise de decision pour gerer la TBE et d'autre ravageurs forestiers. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The forest sector plays a significant role in the Canadian economy. It directly contributes approximately CDN$51 billion in annual output (3% of total), directly or indirectly employs more than [...]

This study evaluated the long-run economic impacts of four alternative forest management strategies on New Brunswick's Crown land forests: two volume-based strategies focused on business as usual (BAU) and intensive (INT) timber volume production and two value-based strategies focused on forest manufacturing sector contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and government surplus (GOV). These were defined within an extended wood supply model that incorporated both economic indicators (logging sector profit, government surplus, forest manufacturing sector shipments, and forest manufacturing sector GDP) and timber supply indicators (harvest levels, operable growing stock, and products). Results showed that a number of indicator trade-offs emerge under each strategy. For instance, the GOV strategy produced the highest present value government surplus value (at $1.2 billion, exceeding INT, BAU, and GDP strategies by $352 million, $302 million, and $169 million, respectively) and logging sector profit (at $2.4 billion, exceeding BAU, INT, and GDP strategies by $4 million, $11 million, and $8 million, respectively) over an 80 year planning horizon. However, this strategy also produced the lowest forest manufacturing sector contribution to GDP (at $12.8 billion, below the GDP, INT, and BAU strategies by $4.3 billion, $1.6 billion, and $1.4 billion, respectively) and the lowest annual softwood volume harvest, operable growing stock, and silvicultural investment of all strategies. Thus, although these findings emphasize that value-based strategies can produce some favourable economic outcomes, a number of trade-offs emerge that need to be further investigated before such strategies can be supported. Cette etude analyse les impacts economiques a long terme de quatre strategies d'amenagement forestier pour les terres publiques du Nouveau-Brunswick : deux strategies basees sur le volume, soit le maintien du statut quo (MSQ) et la production intensive de bois (INT), et deux strategies basees sur la valeur, soit la contribution du secteur manufacturier forestier au produit interieur brut (PIB) et les surplus du gouvernement (GOV). Ces strategies ont ete modelisees a l'aide d'un modele elargi concu pour les approvisionnements forestiers qui permet d'introduire des indicateurs economiques (profit du secteur recolte, surplus du gouvernement, livraisons et PIB du secteur manufacturier forestier) et des indicateurs d'approvisionnement en bois (niveaux de recolte prevus, materiel sur pied exploitable, produits). Les resultats montrent que chaque strategie donne lieu a differents compromis entre les indicateurs. Par exemple, la strategie GOV produit la valeur actuelle nette la plus elevee en terme de surplus gouvernemental qui atteint 1,2 G $, soit respectivement 352, 302 et 169 M $ de plus que les strategies INT, MQS et PIB, et des profits du secteur recolte de 2,4 G $, soit respectivement 47, 11 et 8 M $ de plus que les strategies MQS, INT et PIB sur un horizon de planification de 80 ans. De toutes les strategies toutefois, celle-ci produit egalement la plus faible contribution du secteur manufacturier forestier au PIB avec 12,8 G $, soit respectivement 4,3, 1,6 et 1,4 M $ de moins que les strategies PIB, INT et MQS et les plus faibles volumes de recolte annuelle de resineux, de materiel sur pied exploitable et d'investissement en sylviculture. Par consequent, bien que ces resultats fassent ressortir le fait que les strategies basees sur la valeur aient un impact economique favorable, les differents compromis auxquels donnent lieu les differentes strategies doivent etre davantage etudies avant que de telles strategies puissent etre adoptees. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction The forests of New Brunswick have provided its people with subsistence and economic growth for over 225 years (Parenteau 1994). Today, the forest industry directly employs over 17 300 [...]

Abstracts V. LANTZ AND D. MURRELL: 'Climate Change Plan for Canada: A Full Cost-Benefit Framework for Evaluating Options at the Provincial Level'. This paper examines the provincial economic impacts from [...]

Economic models suggest that greenhouse gas emission reductions are warranted on a global scale. However, more analysis is needed at a regional level to inform local governments about the economics of alternative carbon policies. To this end, we develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for the case-study province of New Brunswick, Canada, and consider economic impacts and costs of two carbon policy scenarios. The first, called the Federal 'backstop', consists of a carbon tax on small emitters and an output-based pricing system (OBPS) on large emitters. The second consists of a common carbon tax across all emitters. We also consider different carbon tax revenue recycling options under each scenario. Results show that when a carbon tax is applied to all emitters starting at $20/tonne in 2019 and increasing to $170/tonne in 2030, cumulative present value GDP would decline in the range of 0.60%–0.63% (depending on revenue recycling options), and emissions will decline by more than 32%. Under the Federal backstop scenario, GDP reduction is only 0.24–0.26%, and emissions reduction is only 13%. In all scenarios, the costs range between $21 and 50/tonne on average, and are generally lower than the global social cost of carbon estimated in other research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the reliability and validity of transferring estimates of marginal willingness to accept and compensating surplus. In doing so, we used data from two case studies applying choice experiments to elicit landowner preferences for incentive‐based wetland conservation programs in two adjacent watersheds in Southern Ontario, Canada (Grand and Upper Thames Rivers in parallel in 2013). The choice experiment data were modeled in willingness to accept space using a generalized multinomial logit. Transfer reliability was investigated by calculating transfer errors, while validity was investigated by testing the equality of utility functions as well as by assessing the similarity of welfare estimates using traditional hypothesis tests and equivalence tests. The main findings are that transfers of willingness to accept are similar to existing transfers of willingness to pay in terms of validity and reliability. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis finds that including demographic variables in the choice model can lead to lower transfer validity though does not substantially affect reliability. Though further research is required, our results suggest that willingness to accept can be transferred as part of policy analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the sensitivity of social benefits to the amount (scope) of protected natural areas (PNAs) in the Eastern Canadian province of New Brunswick using the contingent valuation method. Household willingness-to-pay responses were elicited under three valuation scenarios: (1) maintaining the existing amount of PNAs at 2 per cent of the provincial land base; (2) increasing the PNAs to 8 per cent of the provincial land base; (3) increasing the PNAs to 14 per cent of the provincial land base. Under these scenarios, mean willingness-to-pay values were estimated at $58.63, $66.57 and $71.29 (CDN) per household per year, respectively. While these mean values initially indicated that social benefits were sensitive to scope, analysis of values within the 95% confidence interval revealed scope insensitivity. The possible sources and implications of these findings are discussed in the context of future benefit–cost analyses associated with PNA policies in the province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]