Search

This paper analyzes the impact of external price shocks on the real exchange rate and the existence of the Dutch disease, in the case of the Argentine economy. We consider the effects of shocks on the terms of tr ade, the supply of the agricultural sector (booming sector and main exporter) and the real exchange rate on the GDP of the manufacturing sector (or, alternatively, on total GDP) and unemployment rates. SVAR models, with long-term restrictions, and quarterly data, covering the 1993-2018 period, are estimated. The results show that the external price shocks and agricultural sector shocks affect positively and permanently to the manufacturing GDP and negatively to the unemployment rates, not finding substantial evidence about existence of the Dutch disease for this economy, during the period considered.

This paper analyzes the impact of external price shocks on the real exchange rate and the existence of the Dutch disease, in the case of the Argentine economy. We consider the effects of shocks on the terms of trade, the supply of the agricultural sector (booming sector) and the real exchange rate on the GDP of the manufacturing sector (or, alternatively, on total GDP) and unemployment rates. SVAR models, with long-term restrictions, and quarterly data, covering the 1993-2018 period, are estimated. The results show that the external price shocks and agricultural sector shocks affect positively and permanently to the manufacturing GDP and negatively to the unemployment rates, not finding substantial evidence about existence of the Dutch disease for this economy.

The aim of this paper is to identify the different shocks that could affect the current account in the argentine case, such as the terms of trade (the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect-HLM), supply shocks (productivity), demand shocks (real exchange rate and public consumption /current GDP) and the shocks on the production side of the economy. SVAR models with long-term restrictions and quarterly data covering the period 1994-2018 are used. The results of the impulse-response functions suggest the existence of the HLM effect for this country. Shocks in the terms of trade would initially affect to the current account positively, as the improvements in the productivity and in the public saving (lower consumption).

This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in exports of primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin in Argentina, using structural VEC models (Structural Vector Error Correction) and annual data covering the period 1980-2016. To this end, long term restrictions are imposed on these models and the following structural shocks are identified: real effective exchange rate of U.S., international prices of commodities, agricultural GDP and real exchange rate of Argentina (in addition to exports of these products). The results show that the main sources of fluctuations in exports, after ten years, would be the shocks in international prices and real exchange rate of U.S., while the importance of the real exchange rate of Argentina and, especially, of the supply shocks would be smaller.

This paper investigates the impact of external price shocks on private consumption and investment and the sources of fluctuations in these variables, in the case of Argentina, employing structural VEC models (Structural Vector Error Correction) and quarterly data, covering the period 1993Q1-2017Q1. To that end, short and long-terms restrictions are imposed and five structural shocks are identified: terms of trade, consumption, investment, real exchange rate and unemployment rates. The results show, that both consumption and investment, respond positively and permanently to the external price shocks and are influenced positively each other: investment has a positive effect on private consumption and total consumption impacts on investment positively. A real exchange rate depreciated would have a negative effect on private consumption and investment, in the short term.

This paper analyzes the impact of external price shocks on fiscal policy in Argentina during the last two decades. The paper evaluates, through VAR models with long-term restrictions, the effects of the terms of trade, and the output gap, in revenues, expenditures and the primary fiscal deficit, for the period 1993-2015. The estimation results show that the fiscal policy would have been pro cyclical, since the expenditures and the primary fiscal deficit of the national government increased during periods of boom in commodity prices. The terms of trade and inflation rates would be more important, than shocks in the output gap, to explain the volatility of fiscal ratios, in the long run.

El análisis de las causas que explican la declinación relativa de la agricultura en la economía es uno de los desafíos centrales del desarrollo económico. Sobre el particular, la literatura suele poner énfasis en los argumentos que descansan en el lado de la demanda, tal como la ley de Engel. Más recientemente, estas explicaciones han sido desafiadas por otros enfoques que destacan principalmente las diferencias en las dotaciones de factores (efecto Rybczynski), los cambios en los precios reales del sector agropecuario y las tasas diferenciales del cambio tecnológico, a efectos de explicar este fenómeno. Este trabajo analiza el proceso de transformación sufrido por la economía argentina durante las últimas cinco décadas a partir de una metodología basada en la teoría de la dualidad y en un modelo que utiliza un mecanismo de corrección de errores, que permite explicar la dinámica de los desequilibrios y los costos del ajuste. Los resultados de las estimaciones sugieren que las caídas en los precios reales agropecuarios habrían sido menos importantes, como Fuente de la declinación relativa de la agricultura en el caso argentino, que las diferentes tasas de crecimiento en la productividad observadas en el sector agropecuario y en la economía agregada

Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis (1976) is a central building block in international macroeconomics. This paper analyzes the effects of monetary and other macroeconomic shocks on the real exchange rate in the case of a small economy like Argentina. The paper uses SVAR models with short term restrictions, and quarterly data of this country, covering the period 1993-2014. Results show that a contractionary monetary shock generates an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the short term and then a gradual depreciation of this variable, as the hypothesis of Dornbusch suggests.

RESUMEN Este artículo analiza los efectos de los choques de política fiscal sobre el consumo privado, la inversión y otras variables macroeconómicas de la economía argentina. Se usan modelos VAR estructurales con restricciones contemporáneas y datos trimestrales del periodo 1993-2012. El aumento del gasto del gobierno tiene efectos positivos sobre el consumo privado y la inversión, y reduce el desempleo. Las pruebas de causalidad indican que las variaciones de los ingresos tributarios preceden a las del consumo privado y la inversión. ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policy shocks on private consumption, investment and other macroeconomic variables in Argentine economy. The paper uses SVAR models with contemporary restrictions and quarterly data covering the period 1993-2012. We observed that expansionary shocks in government spending generate a positive effect on private consumption and investment and a fall in unemployment rates. In turn, variation tax revenues precedes private consumption and investment.

The recent international financial crisis has highlighted the role of real asset prices in the macroeconomic fluctuations of advanced economies. This paper analyzes the effects of some external and domestic shocks in the real prices of agricultural land in Argentina economy and compared the results with the situation observed in the United States. To this end, we used VEC models (vector error correction) and annual data covering the period 1960-2012. The estimation results show that real GDP would be the most relevant factor to explain the volatility in the land prices in Argentina, in contrast with the United States where the real interest rate would be the main factor. The estimates also include other macroeconomic shocks (international real prices of agricultural commodities, general price index, real exchange rate) to explain the variability in the real prices of these assets.

Este trabajo examina la relación entre el desarrollo del mercado accionario y el crecimiento, en el caso de la economía Argentina. Se emplean tests de causalidad de Granger y de exogeneidad basados en modelos de VEC, con datos mensuales, que cubren el período 1993:1-2010:8. Los resultados muestran que los principales índices accionarios correspondientes al Mercado de Valores de Buenos Aires (MERVAL25 y BURCAP) causan en sentido de Granger al estimador de actividad económica (EMAE). A su vez, ambos índices podrían considerarse variables exógenas (débil y fuerte). Los modelos estimados incluyen también otras variables que podrían explicar el comportamiento del nivel de actividad en el mediano plazo. Los resultados están en línea con la teoría que establece que el desarrollo de los mercados financieros resulta una de las condiciones necesarias para alcanzar elevadas tasas de crecimiento económico.

Orthodox and heterodox economists have promoted different liberalization measures in the economy in accordance with its vision for agriculture and manufacturing sectors. In this paper, we try to determine the impact of external terms of trade and domestic (the latter considers foreign trade policy) on the product of both sectors and unemployment rates. To this end, we use SVAR models with long-run restrictions and quarterly data for Argentina's economy, covering the period 1993:1-2011:1. It is noted that the variance of agricultural GDP is mostly explained by shocks in the external terms of trade, unlike manufacturing GDP which domestics are more relevant (other than their own shock). Moreover, the volatility of unemployment rates responds more to shocks in manufacturing GDP and in the domestic terms of trade.

Este trabajo pretende identificar las posibles perturbaciones (shocks) que afectarían al balance de la cuenta corriente de la Argentina. A tal efecto, se analiza la transmisión de shoks en la economía y se explora, en forma separada, el impacto de estos shocks sobre el crecimiento de la inversión real doméstica y la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos, empleando, para ello, estimaciones econométricas y la técnica de los Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR). El análisis cubre el período 1977-97 y utiliza datos de periodicidad anual., Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas

El propósito de este trabajo es estimar para la Argentina, una función de costos translogarítmica agregada que incluye a las importaciones como un un factor de producción adicional. Se asume que la teconología está representada por una función de costos y, que el sector productivo combina los factores domésticos capital y mano de obra con los productos importados, a fin de minimizar el costo de producir bienes de servicio y de inversión destinados al mercado doméstico y al externo. La función de costos translogarítmica para productos múltiples, es estimada conjuntamente con dos de las funciones de participación de los factores en el costo y con una ecuación de participación de los productos en el ingreso. El modelo completo es estimado simultaneamente imponiendo las condiciones apropiadas de simetría y homogeneidad. Este procedimiento permite no solo obtener una estimación de la función de importaciones, sin imponer a priori las restrictivas condiciones que los factores y los productos son agregados, sino también establecer las relaciones de sustitución inherentes en la teconología de producción empleada., The purpose of this paper its estimate for Argentina an aggregate transcendental algorithmic cost function which includes imports as a factor of production. We assume that the technology is described by a joint cost function and that the producing sector combines capital aid labor with imported materials to minimize the cost of producing a specified bindle of consumption and investment goods, which are purchased either by domestics or foreigners. A translog multi-product cost functíon is estimated jointly with two derived factor cost share equations and with a revenue share equation. The entire derived system is estimated simultaneously imposing the appropriate symmetry and hemogeneity restrictions. Not only does this procedure allow us to obtain estimates of import function without relying on the restrictive assumption that outputs and domestic factors can he aggregated, but it also yields some insight about the substitution possibilites inherent in the technology., Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas