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This study assesses the reliability of resting-state dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of magnetoencephalography (MEG) under conductance-based canonical microcircuit models, in terms of both posterior parameter estimates and model evidence. We use resting-state MEG data from two sessions, acquired 2 weeks apart, from a cohort with high between-subject variance arising from Alzheimer's disease. Our focus is not on the effect of disease, but on the reliability of the methods (as within-subject between-session agreement), which is crucial for future studies of disease progression and drug intervention. To assess the reliability of first-level DCMs, we compare model evidence associated with the covariance among subject-specific free energies (i.e., the 'quality' of the models) with versus without interclass correlations. We then used parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) to investigate the differences between the inferred DCM parameter probability distributions at the between subject level. Specifically, we examined the evidence for or against parameter differences (i) within-subject, within-session, and between-epochs; (ii) within-subject between-session; and (iii) within-site between-subjects, accommodating the conditional dependency among parameter estimates. We show that for data acquired close in time, and under similar circumstances, more than 95% of inferred DCM parameters are unlikely to differ, speaking to mutual predictability over sessions. Using PEB, we show a reciprocal relationship between a conventional definition of 'reliability' and the conditional dependency among inferred model parameters. Our analyses confirm the reliability and reproducibility of the conductance-based DCMs for resting-state neurophysiological data. In this respect, the implicit generative modelling is suitable for interventional and longitudinal studies of neurological and psychiatric disorders., (© 2024 The Author(s). Human Brain Mapping published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

We present a hierarchical empirical Bayesian framework for testing hypotheses about neurotransmitters' concertation as empirical prior for synaptic physiology using ultra-high field magnetic resonance spectroscopy (7T-MRS) and magnetoencephalography data (MEG). A first level dynamic causal modelling of cortical microcircuits is used to infer the connectivity parameters of a generative model of individuals' neurophysiological observations. At the second level, individuals' 7T-MRS estimates of regional neurotransmitter concentration supply empirical priors on synaptic connectivity. We compare the group-wise evidence for alternative empirical priors, defined by monotonic functions of spectroscopic estimates, on subsets of synaptic connections. For efficiency and reproducibility, we used Bayesian model reduction (BMR), parametric empirical Bayes and variational Bayesian inversion. In particular, we used Bayesian model reduction to compare alternative model evidence of how spectroscopic neurotransmitter measures inform estimates of synaptic connectivity. This identifies the subset of synaptic connections that are influenced by individual differences in neurotransmitter levels, as measured by 7T-MRS. We demonstrate the method using resting-state MEG (i.e., task-free recording) and 7T-MRS data from healthy adults. Our results confirm the hypotheses that GABA concentration influences local recurrent inhibitory intrinsic connectivity in deep and superficial cortical layers, while glutamate influences the excitatory connections between superficial and deep layers and connections from superficial to inhibitory interneurons. Using within-subject split-sampling of the MEG dataset (i.e., validation by means of a held-out dataset), we show that model comparison for hypothesis testing can be highly reliable. The method is suitable for applications with magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography, and is well-suited to reveal the mechanisms of neurological and psychiatric disorders, including responses to psychopharmacological interventions., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The author declares no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Dementia in Parkinson's disease affects 50% of patients within 10 years of diagnosis but there is wide variation in severity and timing. Thus, robust neuroimaging prediction of cognitive involvement in Parkinson's disease is important: (i) to identify at-risk individuals for clinical trials of potential new treatments; (ii) to provide reliable prognostic information for individuals and populations; and (iii) to shed light on the pathophysiological processes underpinning Parkinson's disease dementia. To date, neuroimaging has not made major contributions to predicting cognitive involvement in Parkinson's disease. This is perhaps unsurprising considering conventional methods rely on macroscopic measures of topographically distributed neurodegeneration, a relatively late event in Parkinson's dementia. However, new technologies are now emerging that could provide important insights through detection of other potentially relevant processes. For example, novel MRI approaches can quantify magnetic susceptibility as a surrogate for tissue iron content, and increasingly powerful mathematical approaches can characterize the topology of brain networks at the systems level. Here, we present an up-to-date overview of the growing role of neuroimaging in predicting dementia in Parkinson's disease. We discuss the most relevant findings to date, and consider the potential of emerging technologies to detect the earliest signs of cognitive involvement in Parkinson's disease.