Search

Future climate and sea level projections depend sensitively on the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean-driven melting and the resulting freshwater fluxes into the Southern Ocean. Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) transport across the Antarctic continental shelf and into cavities beneath ice shelves is increasingly recognised as a crucial heat source for ice shelf melt. Quantifying past changes in the temperature of CDW is therefore of great benefit for modelling ice sheet response to past warm climates, for validating paleoclimate models, and for putting recent and projected changes in CDW temperature into context. Here we compile the available bottom water temperature reconstructions representative of CDW over the past 800 kyr. Estimated interglacial warming reached anomalies of +0.6 ± 0.4 °C (MIS 11) and +0.5 ± 0.5 °C (MIS 5) relative to present. Glacial cooling typically reached anomalies of ca. -1.5 to -2 °C , therefore maintaining positive thermal forcing for ice shelf melt even during glacials in the Amundsen Sea region of West Antarctica. Despite high variance amongst a small number of records and poor (4 kyr) temporal resolution, we find persistent and close relationships between our estimated CDW temperature and Southern Ocean sea surface temperature, Antarctic surface air temperature, and global deep-water temperature reconstructions at glacial-cycle timescales. Given the important role that CDW plays in connecting the world's three main ocean basins and in driving Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, additional temperature reconstructions targeting CDW are urgently needed to increase temporal and spatial resolution and to decrease uncertainty in past CDW temperatures – whether for use as a boundary condition, for model validation, or for understanding past oceanographic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During past glacial‐interglacial cycles, the boreal summer insolation is the most crucial external forcing for climate change. However, the question of whether summer insolation is a key forcing on temperatures in the boreal tropics remains under debate, hampering our understanding of climate change at low latitudes. To shed further light on this issue, we performed a series of equilibrium simulations with the NorESM‐L model over the past 425 ka. Our simulations show that in the boreal tropical monsoon region, the simulated annual temperature is anti‐phased towards the boreal summer insolation. This antiphase relation is also supported by some available geological data. Additional diagnostic analyses reveal that the tropical warmth throughout the year is more reliant on winter temperatures than on summer temperatures. This stands in contrast to the situation in middle to high latitudes, particularly in the Mediterranean region. Further correlation analysis and spectrum analysis suggest that the annual temperature in boreal tropics is highly linked to local winter insolation. Our results highlight complex hydrothermal configurations in the boreal tropics, suggesting a decoupling of temperature and precipitation. Specifically, variations in annual temperature and precipitation in the boreal tropics are driven by distinct patterns of seasonal insolation. We deduce that the unique hydrothermal configurations in North Africa may have influenced the dispersal of early humans out of Africa. Plain Language Summary: On the orbital timescale, whether the temperature in boreal tropics is driven by boreal summer insolation still remains unclear. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of simulated results spanning the 425 ka. Our findings indicate that the annual temperature in boreal tropics is anti‐phased to the local summer insolation. Specifically, when local summer insolation is high (low), overall cooling (warming) occurs in the North African and South Asian monsoon regions. Some available paleo‐temperature records from the tropics also provide partial support for our simulation results. The temperature pattern in the boreal tropics is linked to the strong internal feedback in the summer from the unique climate background of the tropics, which results in relatively slight summer cooling at high boreal summer insolation, while the annual temperature is largely dependent on winter temperatures driven by local winter insolation. Our simulations reveal highly complex hydrothermal configurations in the boreal tropics on the orbital timescale, suggesting a decoupling of temperature and precipitation, with the former influenced by winter insolation and the latter forced by summer insolation. Key Points: The temperature in boreal tropical monsoon regions is anti‐phased to the boreal summer insolationThe annual temperature in boreal tropics is more dependent on the winter than summer temperaturesThe key role of local winter insolation in regulating the boreal tropical temperature is closely linked to its unique climatic background [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climate and sea-level projections depend sensitively on the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to oceandriven melting and the resulting freshwater fluxes into the Southern Ocean. Incursion of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) across the Antarctic continental shelf, and into cavities beneath ice shelves, is increasingly recognised as a crucial heat source for ice shelf melt. Quantifying past changes in the temperature of CDW is therefore of great benefit for modelling ice sheet response to past warm climates, for validating paleoclimate models, and for putting recent and projected changes in CDW temperature into context. Here we synthesise the few available bottom water temperature reconstructions representative of CDW and its principal source water mass (North Atlantic Deep Water) over the past 800 kyr. Estimated CDW temperature anomalies consistently reached ca. -2°C during glacial periods, warming to +0.1 to +0.5°C during the strongest interglacials (marine isotope stages MIS 11, 9, 5, and 1). The temperature anomaly in MIS 7 was comparatively cooler at ca. -0.6°C. Despite high variance amongst a small number of records, and poor (4 kyr) temporal resolution, we find persistent and close relationships between our estimated CDW temperature and Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature, Antarctic surface air temperature, and global ocean temperature reconstructions at glacial cycle time scales. Given the important role that CDW plays in connecting the world’s three main ocean basins, and in driving Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss, additional temperature reconstructions targeting CDW are urgently needed to increase temporal resolution and to decrease uncertainty in past CDW temperatures – whether for use as a boundary condition, model validation or in their own right. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical and numerical work has firmly established that grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, hitherto the stability regime of Antarctic Ice Sheet grounding lines in their current position has not been assessed. Here we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis of all the grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to determine if they are currently undergoing irreversible retreat through MISI. To do this, we initialise three state-of-the-art ice-flow models, Úa, Elmer/Ice, and PISM, to replicate the current geometry of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and then apply small, but numerically significant, perturbations in oceaninduced ice-shelf melt. We find that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and then revert to the initial state once the perturbation is removed. There is no indication of irreversible or self-sustaining retreat. This suggests that present-day grounding-line retreat is driven by external climate forcing alone. Hence, if the currently observed mass imbalance were to be removed, the grounding-line retreat would likely stop. However, under present-day climate forcing, further grounding-line retreat is expected, and our accompanying paper (Part B, Reese et al., 2022) shows that this could eventually lead to a collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of ocean-driven grounding line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica give rise to the question of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under present-day climate conditions to locate the underlying steady states that they are attracted to and understand the reversibility of large-scale changes. To this aim, we first calibrate the sub-shelf melt module PICO with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend a subset of simulations best representing the present-day ice sheet for another 10,000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing. We test for reversibility of grounding line movement if large-scale retreat occurs. While we find parameter combinations for which no retreat happens in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector, we also find admissible model parameters for which an irreversible retreat takes place. Hence, it cannot be ruled out that the grounding lines - which are not engaged in an irreversible retreat at the moment as shown in our companion paper (Part A, Urruty et al., subm.) - will evolve towards such a retreat under current climate conditions. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector evolves on millennial timescales and is not inevitable yet, but could become so if forcing on the climate system is not reduced in the future. In contrast, we find that allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry means that large-scale grounding line retreat into marine basins upstream of Filchner-Ronne and Ross ice shelves is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results from an ensemble of seven climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ~50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of DeepMIP (www.deepmip.org), and as such all models have been configured with identical paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 °C to Eocene warmth. Compared to results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations show reduced spread of global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble, for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration. In a marked departure from the results from previous simulations, at least two of the DeepMIP models (CESM and GFDL) are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature, and atmospheric CO2, and meridional SST gradients. The best agreement with global SST proxies from these models occurs at CO2 concentrations of around 2400 ppmv. At a more regional scale the models lack skill in reproducing the proxy SSTs, in particular in the southwest Pacific, around New Zealand and south Australia, where the modelled anomalies are substantially less than indicated by the proxies. However, in these regions modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying an inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability; and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography and aerosols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the behavior of the Greenland ice sheet in a warmer climate, and particularly its surface mass balance (SMB), is important for assessing Greenland's potential contribution to future sea level rise. The Eemian interglacial, the most recent warmer-than-present period in Earth's history approximately 125 000 years ago, provides an analogue for a warm summer climate over Greenland. The Eemian is characterized by a positive Northern Hemisphere summer insolation anomaly, which introduces uncertainties in Eemian SMB when using positive degree day estimates. In this study, we use Eemian global and regional climate simulations in combination with three types of SMB models - a simple positive degree day, an intermediate complexity, and a full surface energy balance model - to evaluate the importance of regional climate and model complexity for estimates of Greenland SMB. We find that all SMB models perform well under the relatively cool pre-industrial and late Eemian. For the relatively warm early Eemian, the differences between SMB models are large which is associated with the representation of insolation in the respective models. For all simulated time slices there is a systematic difference between globally and regionally forced SMB models, due to the different representation of the regional climate over Greenland. We conclude that both the resolution of the simulated climate as well as the method used to estimate the SMB, are important for an accurate simulation of Greenland's SMB. Whether model resolution or SMB method is most important depends on the climate state and in particular the prevailing insolation pattern. We suggest that future Eemian climate model inter-comparison studies are combined with different SMB models to quantify Eemian SMB uncertainty estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]