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Aim Mesopelagic fishes have a near-global distribution in the upper 1,000 m from tropical to sub-Arctic oceans across temperature regimes. Yet, their abundance decreases poleward and viable populations seem excluded from high latitudes. Why? Location North Atlantic between 50–85°N, with implications for high-latitude oceans globally. Time period Present-day. Major taxa studied Diel vertically migrating (DVM) mesopelagic fishes. Methods We use a mechanistic, state-dependent life-history model to characterize DVM mesopelagic fishes. This model links light-dependent encounters and temperature-dependent physiology, allowing optimal DVM strategies to emerge. We run the model along a latitudinal gradient with increasing seasonality in light and track individual fitness-related measures, that is, survival and surplus energy, through the annual cycle to make predictions about population consequences. Results Mesopelagic fishes thrive in the oceans’ twilight zone, and many are dependent on periods of darkness for safe foraging near the surface, before migrating back to depth during daytime. When daylight lasts for 24 hr during the Arctic summer, these fish are trapped in deep waters void of prey because it is never safe to forage in the shallow waters where zooplankton prey are found. Hence, they are left with two poor options, starvation at depth or depredation while foraging. Our model predicts surplus energy, vital for reproduction and growth, to halve from 50–85°N and annual survival to drop by two-thirds over a narrow range of 10° of latitude around the Arctic Circle. Thus, low recruitment and high predation mortality during summer make polar waters population sinks for mesopelagic fishes because of the extreme seasonality in light. Main conclusions At high latitudes, foraging mesopelagic fishes are exposed to sunlight in upper waters also at night. This makes them easy prey for visual predators, which limits their poleward distribution. Our findings highlight the importance to think beyond temperature to explain high-latitude range limits. publishedVersion

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will likely limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will likely limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will likely limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.