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Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrological models, we estimate how, over a 145-year industrial period, streamflow and soil moisture have deviated from pre-industrial baseline conditions (defined by 5th–95th percentiles, at 0.5° grid level and monthly time step). We find increased frequency of local deviations on ~45% of land area, mainly in regions under heavy direct or indirect human pressures. To estimate humanity’s aggregate impact on the freshwater cycle, we present the evolution of deviation occurrence at regional to global scales. Currently, local streamflow and soil moisture deviations occur on 18.2% and 15.8% of global land area, respectively, which is 8.0 and 4.7 percentage points beyond the ~3 percentage point wide pre-industrial variability envelope. Finally, we discuss applying our approach to define a planetary boundary for freshwater change. Our results indicate a substantial shift from stable pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions to persistently increasing change and a transgression of the freshwater change planetary boundary, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.

Moisture recycling of local water sources through evaporation allows a region to maintain precipitation in the same region. Many studies have shown that deforestation can reduce evaporation and downwind rainfall, and it has been suggested that reforestation conversely increase evaporation and downwind rainfall. Precipitation has been observed to increase over China’s Loess Plateau over the past two decades, coinciding with the start of the Grain for Green project - the largest active revegetation programme attempted in the world. However, the contribution of revegetation to the increase in precipitation is yet unknown. Here, we aim to quantitatively analyze the relationship between revegetation, evaporation, and locally recycled moisture. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis data, we used the modified Water Accounting model-2 layers (WAM-2layers) to track the recycling moisture over the Loess Plateau. Preliminary results indicate that local recycling moisture (Er) accounted for almost one-tenth of the annual precipitation, and seems to have a decreasing trend, which was more evident after 2000. Meanwhile, the contribution of local evaporation to local precipitation appears to decrease during both 1982-1999 and 2000-2015, while the decreasing trend has been slightly amplified after the revegetation. Spatially, Er over the Loess Plateau showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. Significant increasing trend of Er can be identified in the northern part of the plateau during 1982-1999. However, after the implement of the Green for Grain Project, most area over the Loess Plateau showed a decreasing trend, which is significant in the east. Thus, contrary to popular wisdom, the revegetation appears to have led to a decrease in evaporation and subsequent recycling, and the increase in precipitation seems to have other causes. These results are subject to high data uncertainty, and further research is needed to better understand the hydroclimatic effects of revegetation projects under climate change.

Rainfall is a key determinant of tropical rainforest resilience in South America and Africa, of which a substantial amount originates from terrestrial and forest evaporation through moisture recycling. Both continents face deforestation that reduces evaporation and thus dampens the water cycle, and climate change that increases the risk of water-stress induced forest loss. Hence, it is important to understand the influence of forest moisture supply for forest rainfall during dry periods. Here, we analyze mean-years and dry-years dry-season anomalies of moisture recycling in the South American (Amazon) and African rainforests (Congo) over the years 1980-2013. Annual average reliance of forest rainfall on their own moisture supply (ρfor) is 26 % in the Amazon and 28% in the Congo forest. In dry seasons, this ratio increases by 7% (or ~2 percentage points) in the Amazon and up to 30 % (or ~8 percentage points) in Congo. Dry years further amplify dry season ρfor in both regions by 4-5 %. In both Amazon and Congo, dry season amplification of ρfor are strongest in regions with a high mean annual ρfor. In the Amazon, forest rainfall self-reliance has declined over time, and in both Amazon and Congo, the fraction of forest evaporation that recycles as forest rainfall has declined over time. At country scale, dry season ρfor can differ drastically from mean annual ρfor (e.g., in Bolivia and Gabon, mean annual ρfor is ~30% while dry season ρfor is ~50 %). Dry period amplification of ρfor illuminates additional risks of deforestation as well as opportunities from forest conservation and restoration, and is essential to consider for understanding upwind forest change impacts on downwind rainfall at both regional and national scales.

Water availability can be linked to a country's stability, internal security, and the occurrence of violence and governability, in the environmental change context. For instance, lack of access to water resources can trigger political conflicts, be used as a tool for political negotiation or attacks on water infrastructure can be used as a source of intimidation. The potential political risks associated with water availability take particular relevance at the scale of international and transboundary hydrological basins and under conditions of water-food scarcity or political instability. To date, although water risks occurring within the boundaries of the hydrological basin have been studied across several case studies in the literature, the issue of risks arising from water upwind-downwind dependency has been overlooked. For instance, precipitation in a hydrological basin or agricultural centre regions with a high dependency on terrestrial moisture recycling may originate in upwind terrestrial areas outside of the basin boundaries. Here we study geopolitical risk related to this water dependency by analizing terrestrial moisture recycling. Our analysis shows that some hydrological basins in Africa, Asia and South America present a high risk of experiencing geopolitical conflicts when there is a large extension of croplands, high moisture recycling dependency and their precipitationsheds extend over warmongering countries. Hence, our results indicate that addressing transboundary water security from a surface perspective can underlook potential geopolitical conflicts that may threaten regional water-food security and peace. These risks need special international attention to guarantee global peace and agricultural production.

Root-zone soil moisture is a key variable representing water cycle dynamics that strongly interacts with ecohydrological, atmospheric, and biogeochemical processes. Recently, it was proposed as the control variable for the green water planetary boundary, suggesting that widespread and considerable deviations from baseline variability now predispose Earth System functions critical to an agriculture-based civilisation to destabilization. However, the global extent and severity of root-zone soil moisture changes under future scenarios remains to be scrutinized. Here, we analyzed root-zone soil moisture departures from the pre-industrial climate variability for a multi-model ensemble of 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in four climate scenarios as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, between 2021 and 2100. The analyses were done for 43 ice-free climate reference regions used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).We defined ‘permanent departures’ when a region’s soil moisture exits the regional variability envelope of the pre-industrial climate and does not fall back into the range covered by the baseline envelope until 2100. Permanent dry departures (i.e. lower soil moisture than pre-industrial variability) were found to be most pronounced in Central America, southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, and most of South America, whereas permanent wet departures are most pronounced in southeastern South America, northern Africa, and southern Asia. In the Mediterranean region, dry permanent departure may have already happened according to some models. By 2100, there is dry permanent departures in theMediterranean in 70%of the ESMs in SSP1-2.6, the most mitigated situation, and more than 90% in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the medium-high and worst-case scenarios. Northeastern Africa is projected to experience wet permanent departures in 64% of the ESMs under SSP1-2.6, and 93% under SSP5-8.5. The percentage of ice-free land area with departures increases in all SSP scenarios as time goes by. Wet departures are more widespread than dry departures throughout the studied timeframe, except in SSP1-2.6. In most regions, the severity of the departures increases with the severity of global warming. In 2050, permanent departures (ensemble median) occur in about 10% of global ice-free land areas in SSP1-2.6, and in 25% in SSP3-7.0. By the end of the 21st century, the occurrence of permanent departures in SSP1-2.6 increases to 34 %, and in SSP3-7.0, 45 %. Our findings underscore the importance of mitigation to avoid further degrading the Earth System functions upheld by soil moisture. An asscociate paper is available as preprint on EGUsphere: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-971/

Research on the protection and preservation of wetlands has traditionally focused on direct human drivers and impacts of climate change occurring in their upstream hydrological basin. However, since precipitation falling in the hydrological basin comprises both oceanic and terrestrial evaporation originating mostly outside of the basin boundaries, upwind land use and hydroclimatic changes affecting this supply of precipitation also need to be assessed. This study assesses the vulnerability of 40 wetlands of international importance to land use and hydroclimatic changes occurring upwind (i.e., in their precipitationsheds). We here use a dataset containing atmospheric moisture flows in combination with evaporation from natural and current vegetation to analyse the impact of extra-basin vegetation changes on the precipitation over the wetland basins. The analysis shows that historical land-use conversion has already caused reduced incoming precipitation into most wetland hydrological basins. The strongest effects are seen in (sub)tropical wetlands in South America, Africa and Asia and especially those located downwind of large agricultural areas. Based on our results and current wetland decline rates, we find that wetland sites in China, India, South America and Sub-Saharan Africa are especially threatened by hydroclimatic and vegetation changes outside of their basins. Additionally, larger basins appear to be more reliant on evaporation from within their basin boundaries than smaller hydrological basins. Using wetland ecosystems as an exemplary case, this study stresses the need to incorporate downwind effects to land-use changes in sustainable ecosystem management approaches. Since the transition from potential natural vegetation to agricultural land is often associated with changes in evaporation, land conversion may affect the resilience of wetland water availability. Following this analysis of the upwind moisture sources of wetland basins, future studies should investigate the potential effect of wetland loss on downwind precipitation patterns.

Tropical rainforests invest in their root systems to store soil moisture from water-rich periods for use in water-scarce periods. An inadequate root-zone soil moisture storage predisposes or forces these forest ecosystems to transition to a savanna-like state, devoid of their native structure and functions. Yet changes in soil moisture storage and its influence on the rainforest ecosystems under future climate change remain uncertain. Using a mass-balance-based (empirical) understanding of root zone storage capacity, we assess the future state of the rainforests and the forest-savanna transition risk in South America and Africa. For this, we analyse the hydroclimatic estimates of 33 Earth System Models under four different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). We find that by the end of the 21st century, nearly one-third of the total forest area will be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, beyond 1.5-2⁰C warming, ecosystem recovery reduces gradually, whereas the forest-savanna transition risk increases several folds. For Amazon, this risk can grow by about 1.5-6 times compared to its immediate lower warming scenario, whereas for Congo, this risk growth is not substantial (0.7-1.65 times). The insight from this study underscores the urgent need to limit global surface temperatures below the Paris agreement.

A substantial amount of the tropical forests of South America and Africa is generated through moisture recycling (i.e., forest rainfall self-reliance). Thus, deforestation that reduces evaporation and dampens the water cycle can further increase the risk of water-stress-induced forest loss in downwind areas, particularly during water scarce periods. However, few studies have investigated dry period forest rainfall self-reliance over longer records and consistently compared the rainforest moisture recycling in both continents. Here, we analyze dry-season anomalies of moisture recycling for mean-years and dry-years, in the South American (Amazon) and African (Congo) rainforests over the years 1980-2013. We find that, in the dry seasons, the reliance of forest rainfall on their own moisture supply (ρfor) increases by 7% (from a mean annual value of 26% to 28%) in the Amazon and up to 30% (from 28% to 36%) in the Congo. Dry years further amplify dry season ρfor in both regions by 4-5%. In both the Amazon and Congo, dry season amplification of ρfor is strongest in regions with a high mean annual ρfor. In the Amazon, forest rainfall self-reliance has declined over time. At the country scale, dry season ρfor can differ drastically from mean annual ρfor. In for example Bolivia and Gabon, mean annual ρfor is ~30% while dry season ρfor is ~50%. The dry period amplification of forest rainfall self-reliance further highlights the role of forests for sustaining their own resilience, and for maintaining downwind rainfall at both regional and national scales.

Humanity is modifying the atmospheric water cycle, via land use, climate change, air pollution, and weather modification. Given the implications of this, we present a theoretical framing of atmospheric water as an economic good. Historically, atmospheric water was tacitly considered a ‘public good’ since it was neither actively consumed (rival) nor controlled (exclusive). However, given anthropogenic changes, atmospheric water is becoming 'common-pool’ (rival, non-excludable) or 'club’ (non-rival, excludable). Moreover, advancements in weather modification presage water becoming a 'private’ good (i.e. rival, excludable). In this research, we explore the implications of different economic goods framings using story-based scenarios of human modifications of the atmospheric water cycle. We blend computational text analysis with expert perspectives to create science fiction prototypes of the future. The economic goods framing highlights that social choices play an enormous role in how the future will unfold with regard to human interaction with the atmospheric water cycle. The narrative scenarios serve two purposes. First, they provide creative artifacts for the investigation of future interactions with the atmospheric water cycle, that are rooted in a scientific evidence base. Second, they articulate trajectories of our coupled social-hydrological world that require deeper interrogation and anticipation in the present.

openaire: EC/HE/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra Funding Information: This research has been supported by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (grant no. C150-2017-8). Funding Information: The authors acknowledge various funds that made this research possible. Chinchu Mohan received funding from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFRE); Matti Kummu received funding from the Academy of Finland funded project WATVUL (grant no. 317320), the Academy of Finland funded project TREFORM (grant no. 339834), and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement no. 819202). Vili Virkki received funding from the Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Program and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement no. 819202). Sonja C. Jähnig acknowledges funding through the Leibniz Association for the project Freshwater Megafauna Futures. Miina Porkka received funding from European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement no. 819202). Lan Wang-Erlandsson was supported by the European Research Council through the “Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene” project (grant no. ERC-2016-ADG 743080) and by the IKEA Foundation. Publisher Copyright: © Copyright: The freshwater ecosystems around the world are degrading, such that maintaining environmental flow Environmental flow (EF): "The quantity, timing, and quality of water flows required to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems and the human livelihoods and well-being that depend on these ecosystems."- Arthington et al. (2018). (EF) in river networks is critical to their preservation. The relationship between streamflow alterations (subsequent EF violationsEF violations are deviations in streamflow beyond the upper and lower boundaries of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs). The EFEs establish an envelope for acceptable EF deviations based on pre-industrial (1801-1860) stream discharge (see Sect. 2.2 for more details)) and the freshwater biodiversity response is well established at the scale of stream reaches or small basins (g 1/4

Root-zone soil moisture is a key variable representing water cycle dynamics that strongly interacts with ecohydrological, atmospheric, and biogeochemical processes. Recently, it was proposed as the control variable for the green water planetary boundary, suggesting that widespread and considerable deviations from baseline variability now predispose destabilization of Earth System functions critical to an agriculture-based civilisation. However, the global extent and severity of root-zone soil moisture changes under future scenarios remains to be scrutinized. Here, we analyzed root-zone soil moisture departures from the pre-industrial climate variability for a multi-model ensemble of 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in four climate scenarios as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, between 2021 and 2100. The analyses were done for 43 ice-free climate reference regions used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).We defined ‘permanent departures’ when a region’s soil moisture exits the regional variability envelope of the pre-industrial climate and does not fall back into the range covered by the baseline envelope until 2100. Permanent dry departures (i.e. lower soil moisture than pre-industrial variability) were found to be most pronounced in Central America, southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, and most of South America, whereas permanent wet departures are most pronounced in southeastern South America, northern Africa, and southern Asia. In the Mediterranean region, permanent departure may have already happened according to some models. By 2100, there is permanent departure in the Mediterranean in 60 % of the ESMs in SSP1-2.6, the most mitigated situation, and 100 % in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the medium-high and worst-case scenarios. North-Eastern Africa is projected to experience permanent departures in 50 % of the ESMs under SSP1-2.6, and 86 % under SSP5-8.5. The percentage of ice-free land area with departures increases in all SSP scenarios as time goes by.Wet departure are more widespread than dry departures throughout the studied timeframe, except in SSP1-2.6. In most regions, the severity of the departures increases with the severity of global warming. In 2050, permanent departures (ensemble median) occur in 10 % of global ice-free land areas in SSP1-2.6, and in 25 % in SSP3-7.0. By the end of the 21st century, the occurrence of permanent departures in SSP1-2.6 increases to 34 %, and in SSP3-7.0, 45 %. Our findings underscore the importance of mitigation to avoid further degrading the Earth System functions upheld by soil moisture.

Heatwaves are extreme weather events that have become more frequent and intense in Europe over the past decades. Heatwaves are often coupled to droughts. The combination of them lead to severe ecological and socio-economic impacts. Heatwaves can self-amplify through internal climatic feedback that reduces local precipitation. Understanding the terrestrial sources of local precipitation during heatwaves might help identify mitigation strategies on land management and change that alleviate impacts. Moisture recycling of local water sources through evaporation allows a region to maintain precipitation in the same region or, by being transported by winds, in adjacent regions. To understand the role of terrestrial moisture sources for sustaining precipitation during heatwaves, we backtrack and analyse the precipitation sources of Northern, Western, and Southern sub-regions across Europe during 20 heatwave periods between 1979 and 2018 using the moisture tracking model Water Accounting Model-2layers (WAM-2layers). In Northern and Western Europe, we find that stabilizing anticyclonic patterns reduce the climatological westerly supply of moisture, mainly from the North Atlantic Ocean, and enhances the moisture flow from the eastern Euro-Asian continent and from within their own regions—suggesting over 10% shift of moisture supply from oceanic to terrestrial sources. In Southern Europe, limited local moisture sources result in a dramatic decrease in the local moisture recycling rate. Forests uniformly supply additional moisture to all regions during heatwaves and thus contribute to buffer local impacts. This study suggests that terrestrial moisture sources, especially forests, may potentially be important to mitigate moisture scarcity during heatwaves in Europe. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-05921-7.

The tropical terrestrial ecosystems naturally exist as alternative stable states, commonly referred to as forest and savanna ecosystems. However, these ecosystems, especially forests, are currently threatened by the risk of drought-induced forest-to-savanna transitions across the tropics and subtropics. Therefore, a better understanding of ecosystem dynamics and characteristics behind these alternative stable states is crucial in predicting their response to future hydroclimatic changes. Previous studies have analyzed these alternative stable states against precipitation predominantly based on space-for-time substitution. However, such a substitution provides a partial picture of ecosystem adaptation dynamics and associated ecosystem structural change over time. Here, we empirically study the transient state of tropical ecosystems and their hydroclimatic adaptations by examining remotely sensed tree cover and root zone storage capacity over the last two decades in South America and Africa. Tree cover represents the above-ground ecosystem structure's density, and is derived directly from MODIS satellite data. Whereas root zone storage capacity is the maximum amount of soil moisture that the vegetation can access for transpiration is derived using daily precipitation and evaporation data. We found that ecosystems at high (>75%) and low (

Tropical rainforests invest in their root systems to store soil moisture from water-rich periods for use in water-scarce periods. An inadequate root-zone soil moisture storage predisposes or forces these forest ecosystems to transition to a savanna-like state, devoid of their native structure and functions. Yet changes in soil moisture storage and its influence on the rainforest ecosystems under future climate change remain uncertain. Using the empirical understanding of root zone storage capacity, we assess the future state of the rainforests and the forest-savanna transition risk in South America and Africa under four different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. We find that by the end of the 21st century, nearly one-third of the total forest area will be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, beyond 1.5-2⁰C warming, ecosystem recovery reduces gradually, whereas the forest-savanna transition risk increases several folds. For Amazon, this risk can grow by about 1.5-6 times compared to its immediate lower warming scenario, whereas for Congo, this risk growth is not substantial (0.7-1.65 times). The insight from this study underscores the urgent need to limit global surface temperatures below the Paris agreement.

The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (i.e., potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation's water and energy limits. A basin's movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and helps identify the main drivers of change. On the one hand, long-term aridity changes drive evaporative ratio changes, moving basins along their Budyko curves. On the other hand, historical human development can cause river basins to deviate from their curves. The question is if basins will deviate or follow their Budyko curves under the future effects of global warming and related human developments. To answer this, we quantify the movement in the Budyko space of 405 river basins from 1901–1950 to 2051–2100 based on the outputs of seven models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6 (CMIP6). We account for the implications of using different potential evaporation models and study low- and high-emissions scenarios. We find considerable differences of movement in Budyko space regarding direction and intensity when using the two estimates of potential evaporation. However, regardless of the potential evaporation estimate and the scenario used, most river basins will not follow their reference Budyko curves (>72%). Furthermore, the number of basins not following their curves increases under high greenhouse gas emissions and fossil-fueled development SP585 and across dry and wet basin groups. We elaborate on the possible explanations for a large number of basins not following their Budyko curves.

Ongoing and future hydroclimatic changes have large environmental and societal impacts. In terrestrial ecosystems, these changes are usually described with the terms ‘wetter’ and ‘drier’, which refer to the change in the quantity and/or presence of water, either as water fluxes or stocks. We conducted a literature review of almost 500 recent climate change studies to quantitatively investigate the consistency of the use of these terms across disciplines, regarding the hydroclimatic variables they are related to. We found that although precipitation is prevalently used to describe ‘wetter’ and ‘drier’ conditions, many other variables are also used to refer to changes in water availability between research fields, pointing to a varied perspective on the use of these terms. Some studies do not define the terms at all. In order to facilitate meta-analyses across disciplines, we therefore highlight the need to explicitly state which hydroclimatic variables authors are referring to. In this way, we hope that the terms ‘wetter’ and ‘drier’ used in scientific studies are easier to relate to hydroclimatic processes, which should facilitate the application by authorities and policy makers.

Summary The freshwater cycle over land is fundamental for sustainability and resilience, yet is extensively modified and shaped by a vast range of human interventions in the land, water, and climate systems. The consequences of human water-cycle modifications can be non-linear, delayed, and distributed across boundaries, sectors, and scale. This complexity renders freshwater challenges difficult to govern and manage. We here propose a framework for understanding water's many functions for supporting, regulating, and stabilizing hydro-climatic, hydro-ecological, and hydro-social systems. This framework recognizes human impacts on major partitioning points, interactions among water functions, and stabilization and destabilization processes. A functional understanding of the freshwater cycle can integrate with social-ecological resilience-building principles, complement existing water sustainability governance approaches, and highlight the potential need for Earth-system-level governance of water. Recognizing water's diverse functional roles for resilience may promote a new generation of holistic and integrative water-land-climate governance.

The tropical terrestrial ecosystems naturally exist as alternative stable states, commonly referred to as forest and savanna ecosystems. However, these ecosystems, especially forests, are currently threatened by the risk of drought-induced forest-to-savanna transitions across the tropics and subtropics. Therefore, a better understanding of ecosystem dynamics and characteristics behind these alternative stable states is crucial in predicting their response to future hydroclimatic changes. Previous studies have analyzed these alternative stable states against precipitation predominantly based on space-for-time substitution. However, such a substitution provides a partial picture of ecosystem adaptation dynamics and associated ecosystem structural change over time. Here, we empirically study the transient state of tropical ecosystems and their hydroclimatic adaptations by examining remotely sensed tree cover and root zone storage capacity over the last two decades in South America and Africa. Tree cover represents the above-ground ecosystem structure's density, and is derived directly from MODIS satellite data. Whereas root zone storage capacity is the maximum amount of soil moisture that the vegetation can access for transpiration is derived using daily precipitation and evaporation data. We found that ecosystems at high (>75%) and low (

Forest and savanna ecosystems naturally exist as alternative stable states. The maximum capacity of these ecosystems to absorb perturbations without transitioning to the other alternative stable state is referred to as ‘resilience’. Previous studies have determined the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to hydroclimatic changes predominantly based on space-for-time substitution. This substitution assumes that the contemporary spatial frequency distribution of ecosystems’ tree cover structure holds across time. However, this assumption is problematic since ecosystem adaptation over time is ignored. Here we empirically study tropical forests’ stability and hydroclimatic adaptation dynamics by examining remotely sensed tree cover change (ΔTC; aboveground ecosystem structural change) and root zone storage capacity (Sr; buffer capacity towards water-stress) over the last two decades. We find that ecosystems at high (>75%) and low (

The Budyko framework consists of a curvilinear relationship between the evaporative ratio (i.e., actual evaporation over precipitation) and the aridity index (potential evaporation over precipitation) and defines evaporation’s water and energy limits. A basin’s movement within the Budyko space illustrates its hydroclimatic change and can help identify the main drivers of change. Basins are expected to move along their Budyko curves when only long-term changes in the aridity index drive changes in the evaporative ratio. We hypothesize that the increasing effects of global warming on the hydrological cycle will cause basins to move along their Budyko curves. To test our hypothesis, we quantify the movement in Budyko space of 353 river basins from 1901 to 2100 based on the outputs of nine models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that significant increases in potential evaporation due to global warming will lead to basins moving primarily horizontally in Budyko space accompanied by minor changes in the evaporative ratio. However, 37% of the basins will still deviate from their Budyko curve trajectories, with less evaporation than expected by the framework. We elaborate on how land-use change, vegetation changes, or shifts in precipitation or snow to rain ratios can explain these deviations.

Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding riverine ecosystems. However, at the global scale, the assessment of EFs is associated with significant uncertainty. Here, we present a novel method to determine EFs by Environmental Flow Envelopes (EFE), which is an envelope of variability bounded by discharge limits within which riverine ecosystems are not seriously compromised. The EFE is defined globally in approximately 4,400 sub–basins at monthly time resolution, considering also the methodological uncertainties related with global EF studies. In addition to a lower bound of discharge, the EFE introduces an upper bound of discharge, identifying areas where streamflow has increased substantially. Further, instead of only showing whether EFs are violated, as commonly done, we quantify, for the first time, the frequency, severity, and trends of EFE violations, which can be considered as potential threats to riverine ecosystems. We use pre–industrial (1801–1860) quasi-natural discharge and a suite of hydrological EFR methods and global hydrological models to estimate EFE, applying data from the ISIMIP 2b ensemble. We then compare the EFEs to recent past (1976–2005) discharge to assess the violations of the EFE. We found that the EFE violations most commonly manifest themselves by insufficient streamflow during the low flow season, with less violations during intermediate flow season, and only few violations during high flow season. These violations are widespread: discharge in half of the sub–basins of the world has violated the EFE during more than 5 % of the months between 1976 and 2005. The trends in EFE violations have mainly been increasing during the past decades and will likely remain problematic with projected increases in anthropogenic water use and hydroclimatic changes. Indications of excessive streamflow through EFE upper bound violations are relatively scarce and spatially distributed, although signs of increasing trends can be identified and potentially attributed to climate change. While the EFE provides a quick and globally robust way of determining environmental flow allocations at the sub–basin scale, local fine–tuning is necessary for practical applications and further research on the coupling between quantitative discharge and riverine ecosystem responses is required.

Forests worldwide supply moisture to downwind precipitation through moisture recycling. Agricultural areas located downwind of forests are, hence, susceptible to changes in precipitation caused by upwind forest changes. In fact, human activities have driven extensive forest cover changes in different parts of the world, in different directions, and at different rates. Nevertheless, the forest-agriculture relationship has yet to be systematically quantified and mapped globally. Previous regional studies in South America show that upwind deforestation of the Amazon forest can reduce downwind precipitation and thus decrease agricultural production. A global coverage analysis of forest-agriculture relationship is therefore necessary to identify other hotspot regions where downwind agriculture relies heavily on upwind forests. In this study, we establish the global source-to-sink relationship between forests and their downwind agriculture by analysing 10 years of high resolution (0.25°x0.25°) ERA5-based moisture flows processed by the UTrack moisture tracking model. We assess the seasonality of the reliance on forests considering the growing season of crops cultivated in the downwind regions. Our study provides a global overview of the cross-sectoral and remote dependence of agriculture on forests globally through moisture recycling.

Rainforests have been a major controller of local and global climate by maintaining carbon stocks and regulating global water cycle. However, the water cycle is increasingly impacted by climate change and ongoing deforestation, which forces rainforest ecosystems to adapt differently to increasing water-stress. To understand future rainforest dynamics towards changing hydroclimate, their resilience capacity to future changes and estimating potential tipping points, it is detrimental that we quantify moisture available to vegetation. However, due to the physical limitations in quantifying subsurface moisture availability of terrestrial ecosystems at continental scales, only rainfall is considered a primary control variable to represent the forest's ecohydrological status. In the present study, using remote-sensing derived rootzone storage capacity (Sr), we analyze the water-stress and drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transects in South America and Africa at different tree cover densities. We further classified the ecosystem's adaptability to water-stress into four classes: lowly, moderately, highly water-stressed forest, and savanna-grassland regime using empirical and statistical analysis. Based on these analyses, we can show that forests subsequently invest in their rooting strategy and modify their above-ground forest cover in response to the water-stress experienced by it. We observed that remote sensing-based rootzone storage capacity reveals important subsoil forest dynamics and can act as an important hydroclimatic stress indicator for vegetation. Monitoring of rootzone storage capacity helps open new paths to understanding the eco-hydrological state, ecosystem resilience, and adaptation dynamics in a rapidly changing climate. Source: Singh, C. et al. (2020). Rootzone storage capacity reveals drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transitions. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 124021. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc377

Green water - soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation over land - is fundamental to safeguard Earth system functioning. Nonlinear green-water driven changes in climate, ecosystems, biogeochemistry, and hydrology are becoming increasingly evident and widespread. Yet, considerations of continental to planetary scale green-water dynamics are yet to be assessed and incorporated in management and governance. Here, we propose a green water planetary boundary (PB) - as part of the planetary boundary framework that demarcates a global “safe-operating space” for humanity - for assessing green-water related changes that can affect the capacity of the Earth system to remain in Holocene-like conditions. We consider green-water related processes associated with all scales: spatially distributed units, regions or biomes, and the Earth system as a whole. The proposed green water PB variable is selected through expert elicitation based on a set of transparent evaluation criteria that consider both scientific and governability aspects. Finally, we clarify the appropriate use of a green water PB, outline remaining challenges, and propose a research agenda for future navigation and quantitative assessments of the biophysical Earth system scale boundaries of green water changes.

The global hydrological cycle is characterized by complex interdependencies and self-regulating feedbacks that keep water in an ever-evolving state of flux at local, regional, and global levels. Increasingly, the scale of human impacts in the Anthropocene is altering the dynamics of this cycle, which presents additional challenges for water governance. “Earth system law” provides an important approach for addressing gaps in governance that arise from the mismatch between the global hydrological cycle and dispersed regulatory architecture across institutions and geographic regions. In this article, we articulate the potential for Earth system law to account for core hydrological problems that complicate water governance, including delay, redistribution, intertwinements, permanence, and scale. Through merging concepts from Earth system law with existing policy and legal principles, we frame an approach for addressing hydrological problems in the Anthropocene and strengthening institutional fit between established governance systems and the global hydrological cycle. We discuss how such an approach can be applied, and the challenges and implications for governing water as a cycle and complex social-hydrological system, both in research and practice.

The freshwater ecosystems around the world are degrading, such that maintaining environmental flow (EF) in river networks is critical to their preservation. The relationship between streamflow alterations and, respectively, EF violations, and freshwater biodiversity is well established at the scale of stream reaches or small basins (~

The planetary boundaries framework defines nine Earth system processes that together demarcate a safe operating space for humanity at the planetary scale. Freshwater - the bloodstream of the biosphere - is an obvious member of the planetary boundary framework. Water fluxes and stores play a key role for the stability of the Earth’s climate and the world’s aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Recent work has proposed to represent the water planetary boundary through six sub-boundaries based on the five primary water stores, i.e., atmospheric water, soil moisture, surface water, groundwater, and frozen water. In order to make it usable on all spatial scales we examine bottom-up and top-down approaches for quantification of the water planetary boundary. For the bottom-up approaches, we explore possible spatially distributed variables defining each of the proposed sub-boundaries, as well as possible weighting factors and keystone regions that can be used for aggregation of the distributed water sub-boundaries to the global scale. For the top-down approaches, we re-examine the stability of key biomes and tipping elements in the Earth System that may be crucially influenced by water cycle modifications. To identify the most appropriate variables for representing the water planetary boundary, we evaluate the range of explored variables with regard to scientific evidence and scientific representation using a hierarchy-based evaluation framework. Finally, we compare the highest ranked top-down and bottom-up approaches in terms of the scientific outcome and implications for governance. In sum, this comprehensive and systematic identification and evaluation of variables, weighting factors, and baseline conditions provides a detailed basis for the future operational quantification of the water planetary boundary.

Change in rainfall patterns and extended drought events can cause water stress in the rainforest which can also lead to a permanent shift of the biome into a savanna state. Rainforest in response may adapt to such environmental stress conditions to sustain ecosystem functioning or reduce functioning altogether. Previous studies related to forest resilience have mostly relied on precipitation or climatological drought as a control variable, but neither is a direct measure of forest resilience. As such, forest adaptability dynamics of the forest is poorly understood. Our research defines this adaptation capacity of vegetation as a dynamic reserve which rainforest can utilize before a potential shift to an alternate stable state, as the resilience of the rainforest. Here, we introduce the Rootzone Storage Potential (RZSP) as a direct water stress metric to understand adaptive forest resilience behaviour, using the cumulative difference between precipitation and potential evaporation (radiation-based). Since the potential evaporation used for RZSP calculation is purely radiation-based, it minimizes the effect of moisture recycling (and transport) on the system. RZSP is the potential of vegetation to optimize their resources enduring the greatest dry period. In this study, we have investigated the spatio-temporal resilience loss of the South American and African rainforest. An increasing trend of resilience loss was observed in the past few decades. Using RZSP is a useful indicator for estimating resilience dynamics and water stress characteristics of the rainforest.

The planetary boundaries framework has proven useful for many global sustainability contexts, but is challenging to apply to freshwater, which is spatially heterogeneous, part of complex socio-ecological systems and often dominated by local dynamics. To date, the planetary boundary for water has been simplistically defined by as the global rate of blue water consumption, functioning as a proxy for water partitioning in the global hydrological cycle, and considering impacts on rivers’ environmental flow requirements. We suggest the current planetary boundary should be replaced since it does not adequately represent the influence of water in critical Earth System functions such as regional climate and biodiversity. We review the core functions of water in the Earth System and set out a roadmap towards a more robust, holistic, and locally applicable water planetary boundary. We propose defining the boundary using four core functions of water (hydroclimatic regulation, hydroecological regulation, storage, and transport) in conjunction with five water stores (surface water, atmospheric water, soil moisture, groundwater and frozen water). Through the functions, the stores are inextricably interconnected with the atmosphere, land, ocean and biosphere. The roadmap outlined here suggests how to move towards setting six new water planetary sub-boundaries. This ambitious scientific and policy Grand Challenge that could substantially improve our understanding and management of water cycle modifications in the Earth System and provide a complementary approach to existing water management tools.