Search

Quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) allows images to be compared across sites and time points, which is particularly important for assessing long-term conditions or for longitudinal studies. The multiparametric mapping (MPM) protocol is used to acquire images with conventional clinical contrasts, namely PD-, T1-, and MT-weighted volumes. Through multi-echo acquisition for each contrast and variations in flip angles between PD- and T1-weighted contrasts, parameter maps, such as proton density (PD), longitudinal relaxation rate (R1), apparent transverse relaxation rate (R2$^*$), and magnetization transfer saturation (MT$_{sat}$), can be estimated. Various algorithms have been employed to estimate these parameters from the acquired volumes. This paper extends an existing maximum a posteriori approach, which uses joint total variation regularization, by transitioning from a Gaussian noise approximation to a more physically plausible model that assumes noncentral chi-distributed noise.

Quantitative MR imaging is increasingly favoured for its richer information content and standardised measures. However, computing quantitative parameter maps, such as those encoding longitudinal relaxation rate (R1), apparent transverse relaxation rate (R2*) or magnetisation-transfer saturation (MTsat), involves inverting a highly non-linear function. Many methods for deriving parameter maps assume perfect measurements and do not consider how noise is propagated through the estimation procedure, resulting in needlessly noisy maps. Instead, we propose a probabilistic generative (forward) model of the entire dataset, which is formulated and inverted to jointly recover (log) parameter maps with a well-defined probabilistic interpretation (e.g., maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori). The second order optimisation we propose for model fitting achieves rapid and stable convergence thanks to a novel approximate Hessian. We demonstrate the utility of our flexible framework in the context of recovering more accurate maps from data acquired using the popular multi-parameter mapping protocol. We also show how to incorporate a joint total variation prior to further decrease the noise in the maps, noting that the probabilistic formulation allows the uncertainty on the recovered parameter maps to be estimated. Our implementation uses a PyTorch backend and benefits from GPU acceleration. It is available at https://github.com/balbasty/nitorch., Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures, accepted at Medical Image Analysis

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables (technical report)

Quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) derives tissue-specific parameters -- such as the apparent transverse relaxation rate R2*, the longitudinal relaxation rate R1 and the magnetisation transfer saturation -- that can be compared across sites and scanners and carry important information about the underlying microstructure. The multi-parameter mapping (MPM) protocol takes advantage of multi-echo acquisitions with variable flip angles to extract these parameters in a clinically acceptable scan time. In this context, ESTATICS performs a joint loglinear fit of multiple echo series to extract R2* and multiple extrapolated intercepts, thereby improving robustness to motion and decreasing the variance of the estimators. In this paper, we extend this model in two ways: (1) by introducing a joint total variation (JTV) prior on the intercepts and decay, and (2) by deriving a nonlinear maximum \emph{a posteriori} estimate. We evaluated the proposed algorithm by predicting left-out echoes in a rich single-subject dataset. In this validation, we outperformed other state-of-the-art methods and additionally showed that the proposed approach greatly reduces the variance of the estimated maps, without introducing bias., Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 1 table, conference paper, accepted at MICCAI 2020

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic, and only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections within weeks is unlikely. The emergence of a later second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A sufficiently powerful tracking and tracing policy--implemented at the time of writing (10th May 2020)--will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with less than 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation, using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies., Comment: 31 pages, 12 figures, one table. Technical report

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity--and the exchange of people between regions--and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium., Comment: Technical report: 35 pages, 14 figures, 1 table

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of this model is to quantify the uncertainty that attends predictions of relevant outcomes. By assuming suitable conditional dependencies, one can model the effects of interventions (e.g., social distancing) and differences among populations (e.g., herd immunity) to predict what might happen in different circumstances. Technically, this model leverages state-of-the-art variational (Bayesian) model inversion and comparison procedures, originally developed to characterise the responses of neuronal ensembles to perturbations. Here, this modelling is applied to epidemiological populations to illustrate the kind of inferences that are supported and how the model per se can be optimised given timeseries data. Although the purpose of this paper is to describe a modelling protocol, the results illustrate some interesting perspectives on the current pandemic; for example, the nonlinear effects of herd immunity that speak to a self-organised mitigation process., Comment: Technical report: 40 pages, 13 figures and 2 tables