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1. In-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction : A meta-analysis

Author

Cheema, H. A., Ehsan, M., Ayyan, M., Shahid, A., Farooq, M., Javed, M. U., Lak, H. M., Ahmad, M. Q., Virk, H. U. H., Lakhter, V., Lee, Ka Yiu, Cheema, H. A., Ehsan, M., Ayyan, M., Shahid, A., Farooq, M., Javed, M. U., Lak, H. M., Ahmad, M. Q., Virk, H. U. H., Lakhter, V., and Lee, Ka Yiu

Abstract

Introduction: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events including arteriovenous thrombosis, myocarditis and acute myocardial injury. Relevant literature to date has reported widely varying estimates of mortality, ranging from approximately 2 to 11 times higher odds of mortality in COVID-19-positive STEMI (ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction) patients. Hence, we conducted this meta-analysis to resolve these inconsistencies and assess the impact of COVID-19 infection on mortality and other clinical outcomes in patients presenting with STEMI. Methods: This meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42021297458) and performed according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. PubMed and Embase were searched from inception to November 2021 (updated on April 2022) using a search strategy consisting of terms relating to COVID-19, STEMI, and mortality. Results: We identified 435 studies through our initial search. After screening according to our eligibility criteria, a total of 11 studies were included. Compared with the non-COVID-19 STEMI patients, the in-hospital mortality rate was higher in COVID-19-positive STEMI patients. Similarly, the risk of cardiogenic shock was higher in the COVID-19-positive patients. Length of hospital stay was longer in STEMI patients with COVID-19. Conclusions: Our study highlights the necessity for early evaluation of COVID-19 status in all STEMI patients followed by risk stratification, prompt reperfusion and more aggressive management of COVID-19-positive patients. Further research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms behind poorer prognosis in such patients.

Published
2022
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2. Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Feigin, V, Stark, B, Johnson, C, Roth, G, Bisignano, C, Abady, G, Abbasifard, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abedi, V, Abualhasan, A, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Abushouk, A, Adebayo, O, Agarwal, G, Agasthi, P, Ahinkorah, B, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, S, Salih, Y, Aji, B, Akbarpour, S, Akinyemi, R, Al Hamad, H, Alahdab, F, Alif, S, Alipour, V, Aljunid, S, Almustanyir, S, Al-Raddadi, R, Salman, R, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, J, Ansar, A, Antonazzo, I, Arabloo, J, Arnlov, J, Artanti, K, Aryan, Z, Asgari, S, Ashraf, T, Athar, M, Atreya, A, Ausloos, M, Baig, A, Baltatu, O, Banach, M, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barone, M, Basu, S, Bazmandegan, G, Beghi, E, Beheshti, M, Bejot, Y, Bell, A, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Bezabhe, W, Bezabih, Y, Bhagavathula, A, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Birhanu, M, Boloor, A, Bonny, A, Brauer, M, Brenner, H, Bryazka, D, Butt, Z, Dos Santos, F, Campos-Nonato, I, Cantu-Brito, C, Carrero, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Catapano, A, Chakraborty, P, Charan, J, Choudhari, S, Chowdhury, E, Chu, D, Chung, S, Colozza, D, Costa, V, Costanzo, S, Criqui, M, Dadras, O, Dagnew, B, Dai, X, Dalal, K, Damasceno, A, D'Amico, E, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Gela, J, Davletov, K, De La Cruz-Gongora, V, Desai, R, Dhamnetiya, D, Dharmaratne, S, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dichgans, M, Dokova, K, Doshi, R, Douiri, A, Duncan, B, Eftekharzadeh, S, Ekholuenetale, M, El Nahas, N, Elgendy, I, Elhadi, M, El-Jaafary, S, Endres, M, Endries, A, Erku, D, Faraon, E, Farooque, U, Farzadfar, F, Feroze, A, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Flood, D, Gad, M, Gaidhane, S, Gheshlagh, R, Ghashghaee, A, Ghith, N, Ghozali, G, Ghozy, S, Gialluisi, A, Giampaoli, S, Gilani, S, Gill, P, Gnedovskaya, E, Golechha, M, Goulart, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Gyanwali, P, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hamidi, S, Hanif, A, Hankey, G, Hargono, A, Hashi, A, Hassan, T, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, S, Hayat, K, Hegazy, M, Herteliu, C, Holla, R, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Huang, J, Humayun, A, Hwang, B, Iacoviello, L, Iavicoli, I, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Iqbal, U, Irvani, S, Islam, S, Ismail, N, Iso, H, Isola, G, Iwagami, M, Jacob, L, Jain, V, Jang, S, Jayapal, S, Jayaram, S, Jayawardena, R, Jeemon, P, Jha, R, Johnson, W, Jonas, J, Joseph, N, Jozwiak, J, Jurisson, M, Kalani, R, Kalhor, R, Kalkonde, Y, Kamath, A, Kamiab, Z, Kanchan, T, Kandel, H, Karch, A, Katoto, P, Kayode, G, Keshavarz, P, Khader, Y, Khan, E, Khan, I, Khan, M, Khatib, M, Khubchandani, J, Kim, G, Kim, M, Kim, Y, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kivimaki, M, Kolte, D, Koolivand, A, Laxminarayana, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Krishnamoorthy, V, Krishnamurthi, R, Kumar, G, Kusuma, D, Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Lak, H, Lallukka, T, Lasrado, S, Lavados, P, Leonardi, M, Li, B, Li, S, Lin, H, Lin, R, Liu, X, Lo, W, Lorkowski, S, Lucchetti, G, Saute, R, Abd El Razek, H, Magnani, F, Mahajan, P, Majeed, A, Makki, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malik, A, Manafi, N, Mansournia, M, Mantovani, L, Martini, S, Mazzaglia, G, Mehndiratta, M, Menezes, R, Meretoja, A, Mersha, A, Jonasson, J, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Michalek, I, Mirrakhimov, E, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Mokhayeri, Y, Molokhia, M, Moni, M, Al Montasir, A, Moradzadeh, R, Morawska, L, Morze, J, Muruet, W, Musa, K, Nagarajan, A, Naghavi, M, Swamy, S, Nascimento, B, Negoi, R, Kandel, S, Nguyen, T, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nwatah, V, Oancea, B, Odukoya, O, Olagunju, A, Orru, H, Owolabi, M, Padubidri, J, Pana, A, Parekh, T, Park, E, Kan, F, Pathak, M, Peres, M, Perianayagam, A, Pham, T, Piradov, M, Podder, V, Polinder, S, Postma, M, Pourshams, A, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Raggi, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahmani, A, Rajai, N, Ranasinghe, P, Rao, C, Rao, S, Rathi, P, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Reitsma, M, Renjith, V, Renzaho, A, Rezapour, A, Rodriguez, J, Roever, L, Romoli, M, Rynkiewicz, A, Sacco, S, Sadeghi, M, Moghaddam, S, Sahebkar, A, Saif-Ur-Rahman, K, Salah, R, Samaei, M, Samy, A, Santos, I, Santric-Milicevic, M, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sathian, B, Sattin, D, Schiavolin, S, Schlaich, M, Schmidt, M, Schutte, A, Sepanlou, S, Seylani, A, Sha, F, Shahabi, S, Shaikh, M, Shannawaz, M, Shawon, M, Sheikh, A, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Siabani, S, Silva, D, Singh, J, Skryabin, V, Skryabina, A, Sobaih, B, Stortecky, S, Stranges, S, Tadesse, E, Tarigan, I, Temsah, M, Teuschl, Y, Thrift, A, Tonelli, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Tran, B, Tripathi, M, Tsegaye, G, Ullah, A, Unim, B, Unnikrishnan, B, Vakilian, A, Tahbaz, S, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Vervoort, D, Vo, B, Volovici, V, Vosoughi, K, Vu, G, Vu, L, Wafa, H, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y, Wijeratne, T, Winkler, A, Wolfe, C, Woodward, M, Wu, J, Hanson, S, Xu, X, Yadav, L, Yadollahpour, A, Jabbari, S, Yamagishi, K, Yatsuya, H, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yunusa, I, Zaman, M, Zaman, S, Zamanian, M, Zand, R, Zandifar, A, Zastrozhin, M, Zastrozhina, A, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z, Zhong, C, Zuniga, Y, Murray, C, Feigin V. L., Stark B. A., Johnson C. O., Roth G. A., Bisignano C., Abady G. G., Abbasifard M., Abbasi-Kangevari M., Abd-Allah F., Abedi V., Abualhasan A., Abu-Rmeileh N. M. E., Abushouk A. I., Adebayo O. M., Agarwal G., Agasthi P., Ahinkorah B. O., Ahmad S., Ahmadi S., Salih Y. A., Aji B., Akbarpour S., Akinyemi R. O., Al Hamad H., Alahdab F., Alif S. M., Alipour V., Aljunid S. M., Almustanyir S., Al-Raddadi R. M., Salman R. A. -S., Alvis-Guzman N., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Anderson J. A., Ansar A., Antonazzo I. C., Arabloo J., Arnlov J., Artanti K. D., Aryan Z., Asgari S., Ashraf T., Athar M., Atreya A., Ausloos M., Baig A. A., Baltatu O. C., Banach M., Barboza M. A., Barker-Collo S. L., Barnighausen T. W., Barone M. T. U., Basu S., Bazmandegan G., Beghi E., Beheshti M., Bejot Y., Bell A. W., Bennett D. A., Bensenor I. M., Bezabhe W. M., Bezabih Y. M., Bhagavathula A. S., Bhardwaj P., Bhattacharyya K., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Birhanu M. M., Boloor A., Bonny A., Brauer M., Brenner H., Bryazka D., Butt Z. A., Dos Santos F. L. C., Campos-Nonato I. R., Cantu-Brito C., Carrero J. J., Castaneda-Orjuela C. A., Catapano A. L., Chakraborty P. A., Charan J., Choudhari S. G., Chowdhury E. K., Chu D. -T., Chung S. -C., Colozza D., Costa V. M., Costanzo S., Criqui M. H., Dadras O., Dagnew B., Dai X., Dalal K., Damasceno A. A. M., D'Amico E., Dandona L., Dandona R., Gela J. D., Davletov K., De La Cruz-Gongora V., Desai R., Dhamnetiya D., Dharmaratne S. D., Dhimal M. L., Dhimal M., Diaz D., Dichgans M., Dokova K., Doshi R., Douiri A., Duncan B. B., Eftekharzadeh S., Ekholuenetale M., El Nahas N., Elgendy I. Y., Elhadi M., El-Jaafary S. I., Endres M., Endries A. Y., Erku D. A., Faraon E. J. A., Farooque U., Farzadfar F., Feroze A. H., Filip I., Fischer F., Flood D., Gad M. M., Gaidhane S., Gheshlagh R. G., Ghashghaee A., Ghith N., Ghozali G., Ghozy S., Gialluisi A., Giampaoli S., Gilani S. A., Gill P. S., Gnedovskaya E. V., Golechha M., Goulart A. C., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V. B., Gupta V. K., Gyanwali P., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hamidi S., Hanif A., Hankey G. J., Hargono A., Hashi A., Hassan T. S., Hassen H. Y., Havmoeller R. J., Hay S. I., Hayat K., Hegazy M. I., Herteliu C., Holla R., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Huang J., Humayun A., Hwang B. -F., Iacoviello L., Iavicoli I., Ibitoye S. E., Ilesanmi O. S., Ilic I. M., Ilic M. D., Iqbal U., Irvani S. S. N., Islam S. M. S., Ismail N. E., Iso H., Isola G., Iwagami M., Jacob L., Jain V., Jang S. -I., Jayapal S. K., Jayaram S., Jayawardena R., Jeemon P., Jha R. P., Johnson W. D., Jonas J. B., Joseph N., Jozwiak J. J., Jurisson M., Kalani R., Kalhor R., Kalkonde Y., Kamath A., Kamiab Z., Kanchan T., Kandel H., Karch A., Katoto P. D. M. C., Kayode G. A., Keshavarz P., Khader Y. S., Khan E. A., Khan I. A., Khan M., Khan M. A. B., Khatib M. N., Khubchandani J., Kim G. R., Kim M. S., Kim Y. J., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kivimaki M., Kolte D., Koolivand A., Laxminarayana S. L. K., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krishnamoorthy V., Krishnamurthi R. V., Kumar G. A., Kusuma D., Vecchia C. L., Lacey B., Lak H. M., Lallukka T., Lasrado S., Lavados P. M., Leonardi M., Li B., Li S., Lin H., Lin R. -T., Liu X., Lo W. D., Lorkowski S., Lucchetti G., Saute R. L., Abd El Razek H. M., Magnani F. G., Mahajan P. B., Majeed A., Makki A., Malekzadeh R., Malik A. A., Manafi N., Mansournia M. A., Mantovani L. G., Martini S., Mazzaglia G., Mehndiratta M. M., Menezes R. G., Meretoja A., Mersha A. G., Jonasson J. M., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Michalek I. M., Mirrakhimov E. M., Mohammad Y., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed S., Mokdad A. H., Mokhayeri Y., Molokhia M., Moni M. A., Al Montasir A., Moradzadeh R., Morawska L., Morze J., Muruet W., Musa K. I., Nagarajan A. J., Naghavi M., Swamy S. N., Nascimento B. R., Negoi R. I., Kandel S. N., Nguyen T. H., Norrving B., Noubiap J. J., Nwatah V. E., Oancea B., Odukoya O. O., Olagunju A. T., Orru H., Owolabi M. O., Padubidri J. R., Pana A., Parekh T., Park E. -C., Kan F. P., Pathak M., Peres M. F. P., Perianayagam A., Pham T. -M., Piradov M. A., Podder V., Polinder S., Postma M. J., Pourshams A., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Raggi A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M. A., Rahmani A. M., Rajai N., Ranasinghe P., Rao C. R., Rao S. J., Rathi P., Rawaf D. L., Rawaf S., Reitsma M. B., Renjith V., Renzaho A. M. N., Rezapour A., Rodriguez J. A. B., Roever L., Romoli M., Rynkiewicz A., Sacco S., Sadeghi M., Moghaddam S. S., Sahebkar A., Saif-Ur-Rahman K. M., Salah R., Samaei M., Samy A. M., Santos I. S., Santric-Milicevic M. M., Sarrafzadegan N., Sathian B., Sattin D., Schiavolin S., Schlaich M. P., Schmidt M. I., Schutte A. E., Sepanlou S. G., Seylani A., Sha F., Shahabi S., Shaikh M. A., Shannawaz M., Shawon Md. S. R., Sheikh A., Sheikhbahaei S., Shibuya K., Siabani S., Silva D. A. S., Singh J. A., Singh J. K., Skryabin V. Y., Skryabina A. A., Sobaih B. H., Stortecky S., Stranges S., Tadesse E. G., Tarigan I. U., Temsah M. -H., Teuschl Y., Thrift A. G., Tonelli M., Tovani-Palone M. R., Tran B. X., Tripathi M., Tsegaye G. W., Ullah A., Unim B., Unnikrishnan B., Vakilian A., Tahbaz S. V., Vasankari T. J., Venketasubramanian N., Vervoort D., Vo B., Volovici V., Vosoughi K., Vu G. T., Vu L. G., Wafa H. A., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wijeratne T., Winkler A. S., Wolfe C. D. A., Woodward M., Wu J. H., Hanson S. W., Xu X., Yadav L., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S. H. Y., Yamagishi K., Yatsuya H., Yonemoto N., Yu C., Yunusa I., Zaman M. S., Zaman S. B., Zamanian M., Zand R., Zandifar A., Zastrozhin M. S., Zastrozhina A., Zhang Y., Zhang Z. -J., Zhong C., Zuniga Y. M. H., Murray C. J. L., Feigin, V, Stark, B, Johnson, C, Roth, G, Bisignano, C, Abady, G, Abbasifard, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abd-Allah, F, Abedi, V, Abualhasan, A, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Abushouk, A, Adebayo, O, Agarwal, G, Agasthi, P, Ahinkorah, B, Ahmad, S, Ahmadi, S, Salih, Y, Aji, B, Akbarpour, S, Akinyemi, R, Al Hamad, H, Alahdab, F, Alif, S, Alipour, V, Aljunid, S, Almustanyir, S, Al-Raddadi, R, Salman, R, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, J, Ansar, A, Antonazzo, I, Arabloo, J, Arnlov, J, Artanti, K, Aryan, Z, Asgari, S, Ashraf, T, Athar, M, Atreya, A, Ausloos, M, Baig, A, Baltatu, O, Banach, M, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barone, M, Basu, S, Bazmandegan, G, Beghi, E, Beheshti, M, Bejot, Y, Bell, A, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Bezabhe, W, Bezabih, Y, Bhagavathula, A, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Birhanu, M, Boloor, A, Bonny, A, Brauer, M, Brenner, H, Bryazka, D, Butt, Z, Dos Santos, F, Campos-Nonato, I, Cantu-Brito, C, Carrero, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Catapano, A, Chakraborty, P, Charan, J, Choudhari, S, Chowdhury, E, Chu, D, Chung, S, Colozza, D, Costa, V, Costanzo, S, Criqui, M, Dadras, O, Dagnew, B, Dai, X, Dalal, K, Damasceno, A, D'Amico, E, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Gela, J, Davletov, K, De La Cruz-Gongora, V, Desai, R, Dhamnetiya, D, Dharmaratne, S, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dichgans, M, Dokova, K, Doshi, R, Douiri, A, Duncan, B, Eftekharzadeh, S, Ekholuenetale, M, El Nahas, N, Elgendy, I, Elhadi, M, El-Jaafary, S, Endres, M, Endries, A, Erku, D, Faraon, E, Farooque, U, Farzadfar, F, Feroze, A, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Flood, D, Gad, M, Gaidhane, S, Gheshlagh, R, Ghashghaee, A, Ghith, N, Ghozali, G, Ghozy, S, Gialluisi, A, Giampaoli, S, Gilani, S, Gill, P, Gnedovskaya, E, Golechha, M, Goulart, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Gyanwali, P, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hamidi, S, Hanif, A, Hankey, G, Hargono, A, Hashi, A, Hassan, T, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, S, Hayat, K, Hegazy, M, Herteliu, C, Holla, R, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Huang, J, Humayun, A, Hwang, B, Iacoviello, L, Iavicoli, I, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Iqbal, U, Irvani, S, Islam, S, Ismail, N, Iso, H, Isola, G, Iwagami, M, Jacob, L, Jain, V, Jang, S, Jayapal, S, Jayaram, S, Jayawardena, R, Jeemon, P, Jha, R, Johnson, W, Jonas, J, Joseph, N, Jozwiak, J, Jurisson, M, Kalani, R, Kalhor, R, Kalkonde, Y, Kamath, A, Kamiab, Z, Kanchan, T, Kandel, H, Karch, A, Katoto, P, Kayode, G, Keshavarz, P, Khader, Y, Khan, E, Khan, I, Khan, M, Khatib, M, Khubchandani, J, Kim, G, Kim, M, Kim, Y, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kivimaki, M, Kolte, D, Koolivand, A, Laxminarayana, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Krishnamoorthy, V, Krishnamurthi, R, Kumar, G, Kusuma, D, Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Lak, H, Lallukka, T, Lasrado, S, Lavados, P, Leonardi, M, Li, B, Li, S, Lin, H, Lin, R, Liu, X, Lo, W, Lorkowski, S, Lucchetti, G, Saute, R, Abd El Razek, H, Magnani, F, Mahajan, P, Majeed, A, Makki, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malik, A, Manafi, N, Mansournia, M, Mantovani, L, Martini, S, Mazzaglia, G, Mehndiratta, M, Menezes, R, Meretoja, A, Mersha, A, Jonasson, J, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Michalek, I, Mirrakhimov, E, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Mokhayeri, Y, Molokhia, M, Moni, M, Al Montasir, A, Moradzadeh, R, Morawska, L, Morze, J, Muruet, W, Musa, K, Nagarajan, A, Naghavi, M, Swamy, S, Nascimento, B, Negoi, R, Kandel, S, Nguyen, T, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nwatah, V, Oancea, B, Odukoya, O, Olagunju, A, Orru, H, Owolabi, M, Padubidri, J, Pana, A, Parekh, T, Park, E, Kan, F, Pathak, M, Peres, M, Perianayagam, A, Pham, T, Piradov, M, Podder, V, Polinder, S, Postma, M, Pourshams, A, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Raggi, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rahmani, A, Rajai, N, Ranasinghe, P, Rao, C, Rao, S, Rathi, P, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Reitsma, M, Renjith, V, Renzaho, A, Rezapour, A, Rodriguez, J, Roever, L, Romoli, M, Rynkiewicz, A, Sacco, S, Sadeghi, M, Moghaddam, S, Sahebkar, A, Saif-Ur-Rahman, K, Salah, R, Samaei, M, Samy, A, Santos, I, Santric-Milicevic, M, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sathian, B, Sattin, D, Schiavolin, S, Schlaich, M, Schmidt, M, Schutte, A, Sepanlou, S, Seylani, A, Sha, F, Shahabi, S, Shaikh, M, Shannawaz, M, Shawon, M, Sheikh, A, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Siabani, S, Silva, D, Singh, J, Skryabin, V, Skryabina, A, Sobaih, B, Stortecky, S, Stranges, S, Tadesse, E, Tarigan, I, Temsah, M, Teuschl, Y, Thrift, A, Tonelli, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Tran, B, Tripathi, M, Tsegaye, G, Ullah, A, Unim, B, Unnikrishnan, B, Vakilian, A, Tahbaz, S, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Vervoort, D, Vo, B, Volovici, V, Vosoughi, K, Vu, G, Vu, L, Wafa, H, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y, Wijeratne, T, Winkler, A, Wolfe, C, Woodward, M, Wu, J, Hanson, S, Xu, X, Yadav, L, Yadollahpour, A, Jabbari, S, Yamagishi, K, Yatsuya, H, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yunusa, I, Zaman, M, Zaman, S, Zamanian, M, Zand, R, Zandifar, A, Zastrozhin, M, Zastrozhina, A, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z, Zhong, C, Zuniga, Y, Murray, C, Feigin V. 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Abstract

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates

Published
2021

3. Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Mosiur Rahman, Rehab Salah, Mario F P Peres, Licia Iacoviello, Benjamin A Stark, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Amir Radfar, Kamarul Imran Musa, Yannick Béjot, Deanna Anderlini, Carlos Cantú-Brito, Feng Sha, V. E. Nwatah, Pradip Gyanwali, Boris Bikbov, Bartosz Miazgowski, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ali Bijani, Imteyaz A Khan, Yaser Mokhayeri, Bogdan Oancea, Tarang Parekh, Martin Dichgans, Linh Gia Vu, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Mona Pathak, Maciej Banach, Marissa B Reitsma, Derrick A Bennett, Treska S Hassan, Allen Seylani, Gdiom Gebreheat Abady, Islam Y. Elgendy, Hassan Mehmood Lak, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Sorin Hostiuc, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Alessandra C. Goulart, Silvia Schiavolin, Simona Sacco, Atif Amin Baig, Azeem Majeed, Sahar Eftekharzadeh, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Archith Boloor, Aimé Bonny, Graeme J. Hankey, Jiregna Darega Gela, Mohamed I Hegazy, Pedram Keshavarz, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Maseer Khan, Hatem Abdelaziz Mohamed Wafa, Hualiang Lin, Enayet Karim Chowdhury, Simon I. Hay, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Xuefeng Liu, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Maryam Zamanian, Sezer Kisa, Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan, Junmei Miao Jonasson, Alberto Raggi, Shubha Jayaram, Tahira Ashraf, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Matthias Endres, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Dominique Vervoort, Hanadi Al Hamad, Mowafa Househ, Elena V. Gnedovskaya, Johan Ärnlöv, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Yousef Khader, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Yuming Guo, Yunquan Zhang, Sami Almustanyir, Lalit Dandona, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Chythra R Rao, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Irena Ilic, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Priya Rathi, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh, Gyu Ri Kim, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Alaa Makki, Yun Jin Kim, Vida Abedi, Shanshan Li, Kewal Krishan, David Flood, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Michele Romoli, Gregory A. Roth, Jagdish Khubchandani, Isabela M. Benseñor, Rupak Desai, Mohammed Shannawaz, Aziz Sheikh, Claudiu Herteliu, Xiaoyue Xu, Santi Martini, Kenji Shibuya, Jasvinder A. Singh, Ravi Prakash Jha, Kairat Davletov, Mahya Beheshti, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Ismaeel Yunusa, Maria Inês Schmidt, Koustuv Dalal, Sohail Ahmad, Patrick D. M. C. Katoto, Oladimeji Adebayo, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Ranil Jayawardena, Giampiero Mazzaglia, Mitra Abbasifard, Usman Iqbal, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Alireza Rafiei, Catherine O. Johnson, Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone, Simona Giampaoli, Gaetano Isola, Ricardo Lutzky Saute, Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal, Vishnu Renjith, Farshad Farzadfar, Irina Filip, Daniel Diaz, André Karch, Samer Hamidi, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, David Colozza, Gbenga A. Kayode, Dinh-Toi Chu, Truong-Minh Pham, Arielle Wilder Bell, Aziz Rezapour, David Laith Rawaf, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Ivo Iavicoli, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Omid Dadras, Anayat Ullah, Gina Agarwal, Shafiu Mohammed, Bing-Fang Hwang, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Charles D.A. Wolfe, Sanjay Basu, Michael Brauer, Tanuj Kanchan, Ahmad Azam Malik, Brigid Unim, Min Seo Kim, Kia Vosoughi, Tomasz Miazgowski, Warren D. Lo, Vivek Podder, Dana Bryazka, Chuanhua Yu, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Rufus Akinyemi, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Ettore Beghi, Xiaochen Dai, Meghnath Dhimal, Mehrnoosh Samaei, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Bay Vo, Amanual Getnet Mersha, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Savita Lasrado, Jalal Arabloo, Pablo M. Lavados, Samaneh Akbarpour, Khezar Hayat, Ritesh G. Menezes, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Mariam Molokhia, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Aletta E. Schutte, Zahra Kamiab, Lidia Morawska, Mohammad Ali Moni, Bo Norrving, Tommi Vasankari, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Ai Koyanagi, Tissa Wijeratne, Rizwan Kalani, Chenwen Zhong, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Sepideh Ahmadi, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Andrzej Rynkiewicz, Pradyumna Agasthi, Saeed Shahabi, Adnan Kisa, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Adnan Ansar, Matilde Leonardi, Ali Koolivand, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez, Leonardo Roever, Daniel Asfaw Erku, Alok Atreya, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Dhaval Kolte, Shajedur Rahman Shawon, Michael Ekholuenetale, Navid Manafi, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Syed Amir Gilani, Mohamed M. Gad, Christopher J L Murray, Louis Jacob, Robert Ancuceanu, Simona Costanzo, Erkin M. 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Subjects
Male, Aging, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Stroke data, GUIDELINES, 3124 Neurology and psychiatry, Body Mass Index, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Risk Factors, Epidemiology, Strokes, YOUNG-ADULTS, Prevalence, 80 and over, Aetiology, 610 Medicine & health, Stroke, POPULATION, 1103 Clinical Sciences, 1109 Neurosciences, Cause of death, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Mortality rate, Incidence (epidemiology), Incidence, 1. No poverty, Articles, Hälsovetenskaper, Middle Aged, Stroke types, ddc, 3. Good health, ISCHEMIC-STROKE, Income, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, GBD, Population, Clinical Sciences, Clinical Neurology, 03 medical and health sciences, Clinical Research, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, Health Sciences, medicine, Humans, Risk factor, education, GBD 2019 Stroke Collaborators, Cerebral Hemorrhage, Aged, Ischemic Stroke, Global burden, Science & Technology, Neurology & Neurosurgery, HYPERTENSION, business.industry, MORTALITY, Prevention, 3112 Neurosciences, Neurosciences, 1103 Clinical Sciences, SERVICES, Subarachnoid Hemorrhage, medicine.disease, PREVENTION, Brain Disorders, Good Health and Well Being, Attributable risk, Human medicine, Neurology (clinical), Neurosciences & Neurology, business, 1109 Neurosciences, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Demography, 2.4 Surveillance and distribution, RC
Abstract

Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2021
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4. Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author

Emma Nichols, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Stein Emil Vollset, Kai Fukutaki, Julian Chalek, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Ahmed Abualhasan, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Tayyaba Tayyaba Akram, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Vahid Alipour, Sami Almustanyir, Hubert Amu, Iman Ansari, Jalal Arabloo, Tahira Ashraf, Thomas Astell-Burt, Getinet Ayano, Jose L Ayuso-Mateos, Atif Amin Baig, Anthony Barnett, Amadou Barrow, Bernhard T Baune, Yannick Béjot, Woldesellassie M Mequanint Bezabhe, Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Ali Bijani, Atanu Biswas, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Archith Boloor, Carol Brayne, Hermann Brenner, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Luis Alberto Cámera, Chao Cao, Felix Carvalho, Luis F S Castro-de-Araujo, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Prachi P Chavan, Nicolas Cherbuin, Dinh-Toi Chu, Vera Marisa Costa, Rosa A S Couto, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Abdel Douiri, David Edvardsson, Michael Ekholuenetale, Iman El Sayed, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Khalil Eskandari, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Jawad Fares, Andre Faro, Umar Farooque, Valery L Feigin, Xiaoqi Feng, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Pietro Ferrara, Irina Filip, Howard Fillit, Florian Fischer, Shilpa Gaidhane, Lucia Galluzzo, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Nermin Ghith, Alessandro Gialluisi, Syed Amir Gilani, Ionela-Roxana Glavan, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Mahaveer Golechha, Rajeev Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Brian J Hall, Samer Hamidi, Asif Hanif, Graeme J Hankey, Shafiul Haque, Risky Kusuma Hartono, Ahmed I Hasaballah, M Tasdik Hasan, Amr Hassan, Simon I Hay, Khezar Hayat, Mohamed I Hegazy, Golnaz Heidari, Reza Heidari-Soureshjani, Claudiu Herteliu, Mowafa Househ, Rabia Hussain, Bing-Fang Hwang, Licia Iacoviello, Ivo Iavicoli, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Hiroyasu Iso, Masao Iwagami, Roxana Jabbarinejad, Louis Jacob, Vardhmaan Jain, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Ranil Jayawardena, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Rizwan Kalani, Amit Kandel, Himal Kandel, André Karch, Ayele Semachew Kasa, Gizat M Kassie, Pedram Keshavarz, Moien AB Khan, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Mika Kivimäki, Walter J Koroshetz, Ai Koyanagi, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Hassan Mehmood Lak, Matilde Leonardi, Bingyu Li, Stephen S Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Liu, Giancarlo Logroscino, Stefan Lorkowski, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Ricardo Lutzky Saute, Francesca Giulia Magnani, Ahmad Azam Malik, João Massano, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ritesh G Menezes, Atte Meretoja, Bahram Mohajer, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Yousef Mohammad, Arif Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Stefania Mondello, Mohammad Ali Ali Moni, Md Moniruzzaman, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Gabriele Nagel, Muhammad Naveed, Vinod C Nayak, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Bogdan Oancea, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa O Owolabi, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Maja Pasovic, Urvish K Patel, Mona Pathak, Mario F P Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Carrie B Peterson, Michael R Phillips, Marina Pinheiro, Michael A Piradov, Constance Dimity Pond, Michele H Potashman, Faheem Hyder Pottoo, Sergio I Prada, Amir Radfar, Alberto Raggi, Fakher Rahim, Mosiur Rahman, Pradhum Ram, Priyanga Ranasinghe, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Stephen R Robinson, Michele Romoli, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ramesh Sahathevan, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Brijesh Sathian, Davide Sattin, Monika Sawhney, Mete Saylan, Silvia Schiavolin, Allen Seylani, Feng Sha, Masood Ali Shaikh, KS Shaji, Mohammed Shannawaz, Jeevan K Shetty, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Renata Silva, Jasvinder A Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda E Smith, Sergey Soshnikov, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Dan J Stein, Jing Sun, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Bhaskar Thakur, Binod Timalsina, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Pascual R Valdez, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Vasily Vlassov, Giang Thu Vu, Linh Gia Vu, Yuan-Pang Wang, Anders Wimo, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Lalit Yadav, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Lin Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Ismaeel Yunusa, Siddhesh Zadey, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos, Nichols, E., Steinmetz, J. D., Vollset, S. E., Fukutaki, K., Chalek, J., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abualhasan, A., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Akram, T. T., Al Hamad, H., Alahdab, F., Alanezi, F. M., Alipour, V., Almustanyir, S., Amu, H., Ansari, I., Arabloo, J., Ashraf, T., Astell-Burt, T., Ayano, G., Ayuso-Mateos, J. L., Baig, A. A., Barnett, A., Barrow, A., Baune, B. T., Bejot, Y., Bezabhe, W. M. M., Bezabih, Y. M., Bhagavathula, A. S., Bhaskar, S., Bhattacharyya, K., Bijani, A., Biswas, A., Bolla, S. R., Boloor, A., Brayne, C., Brenner, H., Burkart, K., Burns, R. A., Camera, L. A., Cao, C., Carvalho, F., Castro-de-Araujo, L. F. S., Catala-Lopez, F., Cerin, E., Chavan, P. P., Cherbuin, N., Chu, D. -T., Costa, V. M., Couto, R. A. S., Dadras, O., Dai, X., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., De la Cruz-Gongora, V., Dhamnetiya, D., Dias da Silva, D., Diaz, D., Douiri, A., Edvardsson, D., Ekholuenetale, M., El Sayed, I., El-Jaafary, S. I., Eskandari, K., Eskandarieh, S., Esmaeilnejad, S., Fares, J., Faro, A., Farooque, U., Feigin, V. L., Feng, X., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M., Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Filip, I., Fillit, H., Fischer, F., Gaidhane, S., Galluzzo, L., Ghashghaee, A., Ghith, N., Gialluisi, A., Gilani, S. A., Glavan, I. -R., Gnedovskaya, E. V., Golechha, M., Gupta, R., Gupta, V. B., Gupta, V. K., Haider, M. R., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Hanif, A., Hankey, G. J., Haque, S., Hartono, R. K., Hasaballah, A. I., Hasan, M. T., Hassan, A., Hay, S. I., Hayat, K., Hegazy, M. I., Heidari, G., Heidari-Soureshjani, R., Herteliu, C., Househ, M., Hussain, R., Hwang, B. -F., Iacoviello, L., Iavicoli, I., Ilesanmi, O. S., Ilic, I. M., Ilic, M. D., Irvani, S. S. N., Iso, H., Iwagami, M., Jabbarinejad, R., Jacob, L., Jain, V., Jayapal, S. K., Jayawardena, R., Jha, R. P., Jonas, J. B., Joseph, N., Kalani, R., Kandel, A., Kandel, H., Karch, A., Kasa, A. S., Kassie, G. M., Keshavarz, P., Khan, M. A., Khatib, M. N., Khoja, T. A. M., Khubchandani, J., Kim, M. S., Kim, Y. J., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kivimaki, M., Koroshetz, W. J., Koyanagi, A., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Lak, H. M., Leonardi, M., Li, B., Lim, S. S., Liu, X., Liu, Y., Logroscino, G., Lorkowski, S., Lucchetti, G., Lutzky Saute, R., Magnani, F. G., Malik, A. A., Massano, J., Mehndiratta, M. M., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Mohajer, B., Mohamed Ibrahim, N., Mohammad, Y., Mohammed, A., Mokdad, A. H., Mondello, S., Moni, M. A. A., Moniruzzaman, M., Mossie, T. B., Nagel, G., Naveed, M., Nayak, V. C., Neupane Kandel, S., Nguyen, T. H., Oancea, B., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Panda-Jonas, S., Pashazadeh Kan, F., Pasovic, M., Patel, U. K., Pathak, M., Peres, M. F. P., Perianayagam, A., Peterson, C. B., Phillips, M. R., Pinheiro, M., Piradov, M. A., Pond, C. D., Potashman, M. H., Pottoo, F. H., Prada, S. I., Radfar, A., Raggi, A., Rahim, F., Rahman, M., Ram, P., Ranasinghe, P., Rawaf, D. L., Rawaf, S., Rezaei, N., Rezapour, A., Robinson, S. R., Romoli, M., Roshandel, G., Sahathevan, R., Sahebkar, A., Sahraian, M. A., Sathian, B., Sattin, D., Sawhney, M., Saylan, M., Schiavolin, S., Seylani, A., Sha, F., Shaikh, M. A., Shaji, K. S., Shannawaz, M., Shetty, J. K., Shigematsu, M., Shin, J. I., Shiri, R., Silva, D. A. S., Silva, J. P., Silva, R., Singh, J. A., Skryabin, V. Y., Skryabina, A. A., Smith, A. E., Soshnikov, S., Spurlock, E. E., Stein, D. J., Sun, J., Tabares-Seisdedos, R., Thakur, B., Timalsina, B., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tsegaye, G. W., Valadan Tahbaz, S., Valdez, P. R., Venketasubramanian, N., Vlassov, V., Vu, G. T., Vu, L. G., Wang, Y. -P., Wimo, A., Winkler, A. S., Yadav, L., Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S. H., Yamagishi, K., Yang, L., Yano, Y., Yonemoto, N., Yu, C., Yunusa, I., Zadey, S., Zastrozhin, M. S., Zastrozhina, A., Zhang, Z. -J., Murray, C. J. L., Vos, T., Department of Public Health, Clinicum, Helsinki University Hospital Area, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, University of Porto (Portugal), Medical Research Council (Reino Unido), Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), King College London, University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, NIHR - Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (Reino Unido), Novo Nordisk Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Jazan University (Arabia Saudí), Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, Xiamen University Malaysia (Malasia), Wellcome Trust, Fogarty International Center (Estados Unidos), Federal Ministry of Education & Research (Alemania), Ministero della Salute (Italia), Coordenação de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brasil), Nichols, E, D Steinmetz, J, Emil Vollset, S, Fukutaki, K, Chalek, J, Abd-Allah, F, Abdoli, A, Abualhasan, A, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Tayyaba Akram, T, Al Hamad, H, Alahdab, F, Mashhour Alanezi, F, Alipour, V, Almustanyir, S, Amu, H, Ansari, I, Arabloo, J, Ashraf, T, Astell-Burt, T, Ayano, G, L Ayuso-Mateos, J, Amin Baig, A, Barnett, A, Barrow, A, T Baune, B, Béjot, Y, M Mequanint Bezabhe, W, Mequanint Bezabih, Y, Srikanth Bhagavathula, A, Bhaskar, S, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Biswas, A, Rao Bolla, S, Boloor, A, Brayne, C, Brenner, H, Burkart, K, A Burns, R, Alberto Cámera, L, Cao, C, Carvalho, F, S Castro-de-Araujo, L, Catalá-López, F, Cerin, E, P Chavan, P, Cherbuin, N, Chu, D, Marisa Costa, V, S Couto, R, Dadras, O, Dai, X, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, De la Cruz-Góngora, V, Dhamnetiya, D, Dias da Silva, D, Diaz, D, Douiri, A, Edvardsson, D, Ekholuenetale, M, El Sayed, I, I El-Jaafary, S, Eskandari, K, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeilnejad, S, Fares, J, Faro, A, Farooque, U, L Feigin, V, Feng, X, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Filip, I, Fillit, H, Fischer, F, Gaidhane, S, Galluzzo, L, Ghashghaee, A, Ghith, N, Gialluisi, A, Amir Gilani, S, Glăvan, I, V Gnedovskaya, E, Golechha, M, Gupta, R, Bala Gupta, V, Kumar Gupta, V, Rifat Haider, M, J Hall, B, Hamidi, S, Hanif, A, J Hankey, G, Haque, S, Kusuma Hartono, R, I Hasaballah, A, Tasdik Hasan, M, Hassan, A, I Hay, S, Hayat, K, I Hegazy, M, Heidari, G, Heidari-Soureshjani, R, Herteliu, C, Househ, M, Hussain, R, Hwang, B, Iacoviello, L, Iavicoli, I, Stephen Ilesanmi, O, M Ilic, I, D Ilic, M, Sina Naghibi Irvani, S, Iso, H, Iwagami, M, Jabbarinejad, R, Jacob, L, Jain, V, Kumar Jayapal, S, Jayawardena, R, Prakash Jha, R, B Jonas, J, Joseph, N, Kalani, R, Kandel, A, Kandel, H, Karch, A, Semachew Kasa, A, M Kassie, G, Keshavarz, P, B Khan, M, Nazli Khatib, M, Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, T, Khubchandani, J, Seo Kim, M, Jin Kim, Y, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kivimäki, M, J Koroshetz, W, Koyanagi, A, Anil Kumar, G, Kumar, M, Mehmood Lak, H, Leonardi, M, Li, B, S Lim, S, Liu, X, Liu, Y, Logroscino, G, Lorkowski, S, Lucchetti, G, Lutzky Saute, R, Giulia Magnani, F, Azam Malik, A, Massano, J, Mohan Mehndiratta, M, G Menezes, R, Meretoja, A, Mohajer, B, Mohamed Ibrahim, N, Mohammad, Y, Mohammed, A, H Mokdad, A, Mondello, S, Ali Moni, M, Moniruzzaman, M, Belete Mossie, T, Nagel, G, Naveed, M, C Nayak, V, Neupane Kandel, S, Huyen Nguyen, T, Oancea, B, Otstavnov, N, S Otstavnov, S, O Owolabi, M, Panda-Jonas, S, Pashazadeh Kan, F, Pasovic, M, K Patel, U, Pathak, M, P Peres, M, Perianayagam, A, B Peterson, C, R Phillips, M, Pinheiro, M, A Piradov, M, Dimity Pond, C, H Potashman, M, Hyder Pottoo, F, I Prada, S, Radfar, A, Raggi, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, M, Ram, P, Ranasinghe, P, Laith Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, R Robinson, S, Romoli, M, Roshandel, G, Sahathevan, R, Sahebkar, A, Ali Sahraian, M, Sathian, B, Sattin, D, Sawhney, M, Saylan, M, Schiavolin, S, Seylani, A, Sha, F, Ali Shaikh, M, S Shaji, K, Shannawaz, M, K Shetty, J, Shigematsu, M, Il Shin, J, Shiri, R, Augusto Santos Silva, D, Pedro Silva, J, Silva, R, A Singh, J, Yurievich Skryabin, V, Aleksandrovna Skryabina, A, E Smith, A, Soshnikov, S, Elizabeth Spurlock, E, J Stein, D, Sun, J, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Thakur, B, Timalsina, B, Roberto Tovani-Palone, M, Xuan Tran, B, Wudie Tsegaye, G, Valadan Tahbaz, S, R Valdez, P, Venketasubramanian, N, Vlassov, V, Thu Vu, G, Gia Vu, L, Wang, Y, Wimo, A, Sylvia Winkler, A, Yadav, L, Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S, Yamagishi, K, Yang, L, Yano, Y, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yunusa, I, Zadey, S, Sergeevich Zastrozhin, M, Zastrozhina, A, Zhang, Z, L Murray, C, and Vos, T

Subjects
Blood Glucose, EUROPE, Sociodemographic Factors, Prevalence forecasts, Population Dynamics, UNITED-STATES, DIAGNOSIS, Global Health, Body Mass Index, Global Burden of Disease, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Risk Factors, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Humans, METAANALYSIS, Public, Environmental & Occupational Health, RISK, Population ageing, Public health, Population Dynamic, Sociodemographic Factor, Science & Technology, Risk Factor, Smoking, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Dementia forecasts, Educational Statu, TRENDS, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE, INSIGHTS, Educational Status, Dementia, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, MIXED BRAIN PATHOLOGIES, MIDLIFE, Human
Abstract

Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. F Carvalho and E F Fernandes acknowledge support from the University of Porto (UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds). L F S Castro-de-Araujo acknowledges support from the Medical Research Council (London; grant number MC_PC_MR/T03355X/1). V M Costa acknowledges her grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória (DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006). A Douiri acknowledges support from the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) South London at King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and the Royal College of Physicians, as well as the support from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London. N Ghith acknowledges her salary as a postdoc is covered by a grant to her research group provided by Novo Nordisk Foundation. V K Gupta and V B Gupta acknowledge funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia. S Haque acknowledges support from Jazan University, Saudi Arabia, for providing access to the Saudi Digital Library for this study. C Herteliu is partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation (CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). Y J Kim was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University, Malaysia (No. XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004). M Kivimäki was supported by the MRC (S011676) and the Wellcome Trust (221854/Z/20/Z). M Kumar acknowledges support from Fogarty International Center (K43 TW010716-04). S Lorkowski acknowledges institutional support from the Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health (nutriCARD) Halle-Jena-Leipzig (Germany; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, grant agreement number 01EA1808A). S Mondello was supported by the Italian Ministry of Health (GR-2013-02354960). A Raggi acknowledges support from a grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C. Besta, Linea – Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche). D A S Silva acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Brasil (CAPES; Finance Code 001 / CAPES-PRINT). J P Silva acknowledges support from the Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit (UCIBIO; grant number UIDB/04378/2020), supported through Portuguese national funds via FCT/MCTES. Sí

Published
2021
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